Denis Samudio

P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 22 RHP 5'11" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.8 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#484ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	20	ROKDSL Royals Ve…	11	9	37	1.72	2.23	30.6%	6.9%	—	K 20.8% · BB 8.7% · FIP 3.66
2026	21	MIX2 levels	19	12	76	3.81	3.62	29.9%	11.8%	—	K 22.7% · BB 14.3% · FIP 4.92
2027PROJ	22	MLBTOR	—	—	0	4.85	4.85	22.7%	12.8%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBTOR	5	5	30	4.67	4.59	23.5%	11.4%	0.3
2029PROJ70% MLB	24	MLBTOR	7	7	42	4.51	4.41	24.1%	10.5%	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 5.7, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 86%

CompsNoah Denoyer (age 23) · Michael Knorr (age 23) · Jake Lyons (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%22.7%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP41

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 41 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.3M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	9	37	144	44	10	2	82%	3.3	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	2.2%	1.72	3.66	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	9	37	144	44	10	2	82%	3.3	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	2.2%	1.72	3.66	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	9	37	144	44	10	2	82%	3.3	30.6%	6.9%	23.6%	1.4%	1.72	2.23	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	12	76	321	96	38	9	63%	4.0	22.7%	14.3%	8.4%	3.5%	3.81	4.92	—
2026	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	12	76	321	96	38	9	63%	4.0	22.7%	14.3%	8.4%	3.5%	3.81	4.92	—
2026	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	12	76	321	96	38	9	63%	4.0	29.9%	11.8%	18.1%	2.8%	3.81	3.62	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.7%	12.8%	10.0%	3.1%	4.85	4.85	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	60	254	60	29	8	100%	5.5	23.5%	11.4%	12.1%	3.0%	4.67	4.59	+0.6
2029	24	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	60	254	61	27	8	100%	5.5	24.1%	10.5%	13.5%	3.0%	4.51	4.41	+0.7
2030	25	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	58	244	59	24	7	100%	5.8	24.4%	10.0%	14.4%	3.0%	4.39	4.31	+0.7
2031	26	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	58	244	60	24	7	100%	5.8	24.6%	9.9%	14.7%	3.0%	4.33	4.29	+0.8
2032	27	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	56	239	59	24	7	100%	6.3	24.6%	10.0%	14.6%	3.0%	4.33	4.32	+0.7
2033	28	MLB MLE	TOR	9	9	54	227	56	23	7	100%	6.0	24.4%	10.1%	14.3%	3.1%	4.38	4.41	+0.6
2034	29	MLB MLE	TOR	8	8	50	210	51	22	7	100%	6.2	24.2%	10.4%	13.8%	3.3%	4.48	4.54	+0.5
2035	30	MLB MLE	TOR	7	7	45	189	45	20	7	100%	6.4	23.8%	10.7%	13.2%	3.5%	4.62	4.72	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	TOR	5	5	30	127	30	14	4	100%	6.0	23.5%	11.4%	12.1%	3.0%	4.67	4.59	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	42	177	43	19	5	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.5%	13.5%	3.0%	4.51	4.41	+0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	47	198	48	20	6	100%	5.9	24.4%	10.0%	14.4%	3.0%	4.39	4.31	+0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	51	215	53	21	6	100%	6.4	24.6%	9.9%	14.7%	3.0%	4.33	4.29	+0.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	51	215	53	21	6	100%	6.4	24.6%	10.0%	14.6%	3.0%	4.33	4.32	+0.6
2033	28	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	50	211	52	21	7	100%	6.2	24.4%	10.1%	14.3%	3.1%	4.38	4.41	+0.6
2034	29	MLB CTX	TOR	8	8	46	194	47	20	6	100%	5.8	24.2%	10.4%	13.8%	3.3%	4.48	4.54	+0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	42	177	42	19	6	100%	6.0	23.8%	10.7%	13.2%	3.5%	4.62	4.72	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		61	61	358	1510	366	155	47	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.3%	14.0%	3.1%	4.45	4.05	+5.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	205	87	26	100%	5.9	24.2%	10.3%	14.0%	3.1%	4.45	4.05	+3.2
Career	—	MLE		30	21	112	465	103	58	14	70%	3.7	22.1%	12.6%	9.5%	3.1%	3.12	4.53	+5.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	37	200	828	183	104	26	70%	3.7	22.1%	12.6%	9.5%	3.1%	3.12	4.53	+2.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ADunedin Blue Jays · 70 IPFIP 3.53 → 4.92 (+1.39)K% 30.6% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.64%	—	×0.740	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.12%	—	×1.180	14.30%
HR / BF /BF	2.69%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.50%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.53 → 4.92, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Royals · 6 IPFIP 4.68 → 6.42 (+1.74)K% 20.8% → 14.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.83%	—	×0.680	14.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.250	10.42%
HR / BF /BF	4.17%	÷1.000	×1.400	5.83%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.68 → 6.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Royals Ventura · 37 IPFIP 2.16 → 3.66 (+1.50)K% 30.6% → 20.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.56%	—	×0.680	20.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.94%	—	×1.250	8.68%
HR / BF /BF	1.39%	÷0.877	×1.400	2.22%

Result: FIP 2.16 → 3.66, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Denis Samudio (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	22.7%	12.8%	3.1%	—	4.44	24.0%	13.4%	178	-0.41	—	—	—
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	91
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	89
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	87
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	86
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	86
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	86
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	85
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	84
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	83
Rubby De La Rosa R 2011 · 3.75 FIP	22	SP-	3.75	23.6%	11.0%	2.3%	.300	4.27	16.2%	8.8%	113	+0.52	3.75	455	82
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.4%	8.5%	211	-0.23	3.28	265	81
Tim Redding R 2001 · 4.88 FIP	23	SP-	4.88	22.1%	9.6%	4.4%	.321	4.34	15.1%	6.6%	350	-0.54	3.97	822	81
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	81
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	80
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	80
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	80
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2014 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	20.5%	13.3%	2.3%	.208	3.88	19.8%	10.2%	210	-0.44	3.22	242	79
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	79
Christian Roa R 2021 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	4.90	22.5%	6.9%	260	-0.04	4.14	414	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	54	24.1%	10.6%	1.19	4.49
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.6	51	21.6%	10.5%	1.24	4.71
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43
Hansel Robles ('22)	2.1	61	25.3%	10.2%	1.20	4.11
Tim Stoddard ('75-'89, 4 WAR*)	3.6	66	26.2%*	11.2%*	1.14*	4.24*
Xavier Hernandez ('89-'98, 3 WAR*)	3.4	67	23.9%*	9.1%*	1.12*	4.20*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*