Denis Samudio — OGILVIE

Denis Samudio P Dunedin Blue Jays

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 190 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.7 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.33

FIP4.33

K%22.4%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.6%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$46M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.8M
2035	Arb-2	$4M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$13M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	9	37	144	44	10	2	82%	3.3	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	2.2%	1.72	3.66	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	11	9	37	144	44	10	2	82%	3.3	20.8%	8.7%	12.1%	2.2%	1.72	3.66	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	11	9	37	144	44	10	2	82%	3.3	30.6%	6.9%	23.6%	1.4%	1.72	2.23	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	19	12	76	321	96	38	9	63%	4.0	22.7%	14.3%	8.4%	3.5%	3.81	4.92	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	19	12	76	321	96	38	9	63%	4.0	22.7%	14.3%	8.4%	3.5%	3.81	4.92	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	TOR	2	1	6	24	5	2	1	50%	2.9	20.8%	8.3%	12.5%	4.2%	3.18	4.68	—
2026	21	A RAW	TOR	17	11	70	297	91	36	8	65%	4.1	30.6%	12.1%	18.5%	2.7%	3.86	3.53	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	78	328	77	28	10	100%	5.6	23.4%	8.4%	15.0%	2.9%	4.23	4.16	+0.7
2028	23	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	81	341	82	28	10	100%	5.4	24.2%	8.1%	16.0%	2.9%	4.13	4.05	+0.8
2029	24	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	83	349	86	28	10	100%	5.5	24.6%	7.9%	16.7%	2.9%	4.04	3.97	+0.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	84	353	88	27	10	100%	6.0	24.9%	7.8%	17.1%	2.8%	3.97	3.92	+1.0
2031	26	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	84	353	89	27	10	100%	6.0	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	2.8%	3.93	3.90	+1.0
2032	27	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	82	348	87	27	10	100%	5.9	25.1%	7.8%	17.3%	2.9%	3.93	3.93	+1.0
2033	28	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	80	337	91	24	10	100%	6.1	27.0%	7.1%	19.8%	3.0%	3.82	3.75	+1.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	TOR	13	13	76	322	86	24	10	100%	5.9	26.7%	7.4%	19.4%	3.1%	3.86	3.88	+0.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	TOR	12	12	72	303	80	23	10	100%	6.0	26.4%	7.7%	18.7%	3.3%	3.98	4.06	+0.7
2036	31	MLB MLE	TOR	11	11	67	282	73	23	10	100%	6.1	26.0%	8.0%	18.0%	3.6%	4.15	4.26	+0.5
2037	32	MLB MLE	TOR	10	10	62	261	67	22	10	100%	6.2	25.5%	8.4%	17.1%	3.8%	4.35	4.48	+0.3
2027	22	MLB CTX	TOR	7	7	38	160	38	13	5	100%	5.4	23.4%	8.4%	15.0%	2.9%	4.23	4.16	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	59	249	60	20	7	100%	5.4	24.2%	8.1%	16.0%	2.9%	4.13	4.05	+0.6
2029	24	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	69	291	72	23	8	100%	5.8	24.6%	7.9%	16.7%	2.9%	4.04	3.97	+0.8
2030	25	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	74	312	78	24	9	100%	5.7	24.9%	7.8%	17.1%	2.8%	3.97	3.92	+0.9
2031	26	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	76	321	81	25	9	100%	5.8	25.1%	7.7%	17.4%	2.8%	3.93	3.90	+0.9
2032	27	MLB CTX	TOR	13	13	76	321	81	25	9	100%	5.8	25.1%	7.8%	17.3%	2.9%	3.93	3.93	+0.9
2033	28	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	75	317	85	23	9	100%	6.2	27.0%	7.1%	19.8%	3.0%	3.82	3.75	+1.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	TOR	12	12	72	304	81	22	10	100%	6.0	26.7%	7.4%	19.4%	3.1%	3.86	3.88	+0.9
2035	30	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	68	287	76	22	10	100%	6.2	26.4%	7.7%	18.7%	3.3%	3.98	4.06	+0.7
2036	31	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	64	270	70	22	10	100%	5.8	26.0%	8.0%	18.0%	3.6%	4.15	4.26	+0.5
2037	32	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	59	249	64	21	10	100%	5.9	25.5%	8.4%	17.1%	3.8%	4.35	4.48	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		124	124	730	3083	785	241	95	100%	5.9	25.5%	7.8%	17.7%	3.1%	4.02	3.63	+11.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	215	66	26	100%	5.9	25.5%	7.8%	17.7%	3.1%	4.02	3.63	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		30	21	112	465	103	58	14	70%	3.7	22.1%	12.6%	9.5%	3.1%	3.12	4.53	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	37	200	828	183	104	26	70%	3.7	22.1%	12.6%	9.5%	3.1%	3.12	4.53	+2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Denis Samudio (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	22.4%	8.8%	3.0%	—	4.06	24.1%	15.9%	241	-0.27	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	84
Dualvert Gutierrez R 2021 · 3.22 FIP	20	SP-	3.22	23.5%	9.1%	1.7%	.352	4.29	15.9%	2.2%	78	+1.07	3.22	130	84
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.13	24.0%	11.4%	56	+0.78	2.93	103	83
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	83
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	83
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	81
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	81
Florencio Serrano R 2021 · 3.84 FIP	21	SP-	3.84	19.3%	8.5%	2.4%	.264	4.80	14.1%	3.4%	117	+0.96	3.84	206	81
Peyton Remy R 2018 · 3.57 FIP	21	SP-	3.57	19.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.280	4.75	16.3%	5.2%	140	+1.18	3.57	286	81
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	80
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	80
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	79
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	79
Jimmy Kingsbury R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	22	SP	3.76	21.9%	9.8%	2.3%	.175	4.18	18.0%	7.5%	168	+0.42	3.51	330	79
Yusniel Padron-Artiles R 2019 · 4.48 FIP	21	SP-	4.48	17.6%	7.9%	3.4%	.343	6.27	19.2%	11.3%	197	+1.79	3.27	243	79
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	79
David Lorduy R 2023 · 4.01 FIP	19	SP-	4.01	20.4%	7.1%	3.2%	.267	4.79	17.4%	7.1%	184	+0.78	3.38	269	79
Jeronimo Castro R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	21	SP-	3.45	25.2%	8.2%	2.6%	.362	3.85	20.1%	7.9%	35	+0.40	3.19	158	78
Gilberto Batista R 2023 · 3.63 FIP	18	SP-	3.63	22.8%	6.2%	3.0%	.323	5.53	15.1%	5.0%	210	+1.90	3.63	250	78
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	78

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	72	25.3%	7.9%	1.19	4.03
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61