Juanyerlin Duran
P
DSL Red Sox Blue
+0.2
WAR
Age 18
RHP
6'0" / 165 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.6 · 2032
ERA4.37
FIP4.37
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.6%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.9%
IP31
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2032
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Red Sox Blue | 10 | 10 | 37 | 164 | 37 | 18 | 0 | 15.3% | 13.7% | 0.0% | 4.42 | 3.54 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | MLB | BOS | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 30 | 13 | 4 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.37 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB | BOS | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 23.1% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 4.29 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 20 | MLB | BOS | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 23.5% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.20 | 4.14 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 21 | MLB | BOS | 36 | — | 36 | 152 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 23.9% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 4.11 | 4.05 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 22 | MLB | BOS | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 40 | 13 | 4 | 24.8% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 3.89 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 23 | MLB | BOS | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 42 | 13 | 4 | 25.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | 3.85 | 3.77 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 24 | MLB | BOS | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 44 | 13 | 4 | 26.1% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 3.75 | 3.68 | +0.6 |
| 2033 | 25 | MLB | BOS | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 46 | 13 | 4 | 26.4% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 3.67 | 3.62 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 26 | MLB | BOS | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 46 | 13 | 4 | 26.6% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 3.63 | 3.60 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 27 | MLB | BOS | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 46 | 13 | 4 | 26.7% | 7.5% | 2.6% | 3.62 | 3.61 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 28 | MLB | BOS | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 45 | 13 | 4 | 26.6% | 7.6% | 2.6% | 3.63 | 3.64 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 29 | MLB | BOS | 39 | — | 39 | 165 | 44 | 13 | 4 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 3.66 | 3.68 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 30 | MLB | BOS | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 42 | 12 | 4 | 26.3% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 3.71 | 3.74 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 31 | MLB | BOS | 36 | — | 36 | 154 | 40 | 12 | 4 | 26.0% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.77 | 3.82 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10 | 10 | 37 | 164 | 25 | 22 | 0 | 15.3% | 13.7% | 0.0% | 4.42 | 3.54 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 55 | 200 | 895 | 136 | 120 | 0 | 15.3% | 13.7% | 0.0% | 4.42 | 3.54 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juanyerlin Duran (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.37 | 22.6% | 9.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.14 | 23.5% | 14.6% | 103 | -0.23 | — | — | — |
| Luis Arejula R 2027 · 3.49 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .318 | 4.43 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.94 | 3.49 | 115 | 90 |
| Harold Cortijo R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.46 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .309 | 5.60 | 13.5% | 2.2% | 73 | +1.14 | 4.15 | 179 | 89 |
| Shawndrick Oduber R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.04 | 22.0% | 7.2% | 3.4% | .337 | 5.41 | 15.2% | 3.4% | 72 | +1.37 | 4.04 | 104 | 88 |
| Kyle Glogoski R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.46 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .277 | 3.93 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 93 | +0.47 | 3.32 | 206 | 87 |
| Wilmy Sanchez R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.88 | 23.0% | 12.9% | 2.0% | .316 | 4.21 | 21.5% | 3.8% | 148 | +0.33 | 3.31 | 182 | 86 |
| Blake Workman R 2028 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.94 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.06 | 3.11 | 213 | 85 |
| Andry Lara R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.94 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 4.0% | .294 | 4.76 | 16.6% | 6.7% | 334 | -0.18 | 4.56 | 425 | 85 |
| Jose Montero R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.74 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 2.5% | .377 | 4.02 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 234 | +0.28 | 3.74 | 273 | 85 |
| Matt Walker R 2028 · 3.21 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.21 | 24.8% | 10.3% | 1.7% | .326 | 3.75 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 178 | +0.54 | 2.42 | 211 | 85 |
| Dahian Santos R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.91 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 4.7% | .316 | 4.72 | 25.1% | 10.2% | 161 | -0.19 | 4.52 | 197 | 85 |
| Juan Bello R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.96 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 2.8% | .256 | 3.89 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 155 | -0.07 | 3.74 | 187 | 85 |
| Miguel Rondon R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.47 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .361 | 7.30 | 18.1% | 2.1% | 88 | +2.83 | 2.62 | 179 | 84 |
| Sean Paul Liñan R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.05 | 17.7% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .324 | 3.67 | 23.4% | 12.4% | 127 | -0.38 | 3.29 | 189 | 83 |
| Danny Dopico R 2029 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 83 |
| Angel Guillen R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.92 | 20.6% | 10.2% | 2.3% | .411 | 3.44 | 15.7% | 8.6% | 78 | -0.48 | 3.37 | 181 | 83 |
| Christian Romero R 2026 · 3.25 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.25 | 18.8% | 8.6% | 1.2% | .280 | 4.95 | 16.3% | 7.8% | 198 | +1.70 | 3.25 | 347 | 83 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2029 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 83 |
| Robinson Hernandez R 2028 · 3.38 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.38 | 19.6% | 9.0% | 1.4% | .328 | 4.37 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 102 | +0.99 | 2.62 | 166 | 83 |
| Kevin Malisheski R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.99 | 20.4% | 8.3% | 4.7% | .333 | 4.81 | 12.0% | 0.1% | 122 | -0.18 | 3.81 | 198 | 83 |
| Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.09 | 25.1% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .327 | 3.29 | 23.8% | 13.4% | 81 | -0.80 | 3.20 | 104 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $12M | +$8M | ||