Juanyerlin Duran

Juanyerlin Duran P FCL Red Sox

Age 18 RHP 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK peak 0.3 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 21 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 111

ERA4.96

FIP4.96

K%20.2%

BB%12.7%

K-BB%7.5%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 21 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	10	10	37	164	37	18	0	100%	3.7	15.3%	13.7%	1.6%	0.0%	4.42	3.54	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	10	10	37	164	37	18	0	100%	3.7	15.3%	13.7%	1.6%	0.0%	4.42	3.54	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	10	10	37	164	37	18	0	100%	3.7	22.6%	11.0%	11.6%	0.0%	4.42	2.55	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	9	2	18	89	21	19	3	22%	2.0	16.0%	26.7%	-10.6%	4.7%	5.40	7.72	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	9	2	18	89	21	19	3	22%	2.0	16.0%	26.7%	-10.6%	4.7%	5.40	7.72	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	BOS	9	2	18	89	21	19	3	22%	2.0	23.6%	21.3%	2.2%	3.4%	5.40	5.66	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	BOS	7	7	35	146	31	17	4	100%	4.9	21.0%	11.5%	9.6%	2.8%	4.78	4.70	+0.1
2027	19	MLB CTX	BOS	3	3	17	72	15	8	2	100%	5.7	21.0%	11.5%	9.6%	2.8%	4.78	4.70	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	17	72	15	8	2	100%	5.7	21.0%	11.5%	9.6%	2.8%	4.78	4.32	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	176	94	24	100%	4.9	21.0%	11.5%	9.6%	2.8%	4.78	4.32	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		19	12	55	253	39	46	4	63%	2.9	15.6%	18.3%	-2.7%	1.7%	4.75	5.01	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		69	44	200	920	143	168	15	63%	2.9	15.6%	18.3%	-2.7%	1.7%	4.75	5.01	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juanyerlin Duran (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.96	20.2%	12.7%	2.9%	—	4.70	21.0%	9.6%	35	-0.26	—	—	—
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	90
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	85
Gerelmi Maldonado R 2022 · 4.23 FIP	18	SP-	4.23	24.0%	14.2%	2.5%	.337	4.58	19.9%	2.2%	124	+0.35	3.83	225	84
Alimber Santa R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	18	SW	4.85	17.0%	11.4%	3.2%	.304	5.08	20.9%	1.8%	125	+0.23	3.32	274	84
Heisell Baro R 2019 · 4.37 FIP	17	SP-	4.37	19.0%	11.9%	2.5%	.196	5.91	15.8%	-1.4%	61	+1.54	4.25	105	83
Moisés Chace R 2021 · 3.77 FIP	18	SP-	3.77	20.5%	13.0%	1.4%	.387	4.55	24.2%	6.9%	208	+0.78	3.77	247	83
Jose Cedeno R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	17	SP-	4.66	15.3%	9.7%	3.0%	.271	3.39	21.5%	12.9%	88	-1.27	2.80	123	82
Reynardo Cruz R 2021 · 3.96 FIP	19	SP-	3.96	22.5%	14.8%	1.6%	.264	5.44	16.1%	-2.1%	40	+1.48	3.96	216	82
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	82
Luis Araujo R 2015 · 3.80 FIP	18	SP-	3.80	16.1%	11.0%	1.2%	.342	3.37	15.7%	7.5%	62	-0.43	2.85	135	81
Manuel Perez R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	17	SP-	4.04	17.5%	11.8%	1.7%	.366	5.09	13.7%	-1.1%	117	+1.05	3.40	188	81
Luis Aguilar R 2023 · 4.45 FIP	19	SW	4.45	17.6%	10.3%	2.8%	.356	4.27	16.7%	6.7%	111	-0.18	3.51	146	81
Starlyn Castillo R 2021 · 4.17 FIP	19	SP-	4.17	16.4%	13.1%	1.5%	.271	4.76	15.3%	0.9%	117	+0.59	4.17	138	81
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	81
Yimi Presinal R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	18	SW	4.75	20.2%	15.0%	2.7%	.326	4.71	20.8%	4.6%	92	-0.04	3.62	157	81
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	80
Wilmy Sanchez R 2022 · 3.87 FIP	18	SW	3.87	23.0%	12.9%	1.9%	.316	4.24	21.5%	3.8%	148	+0.37	3.31	218	80
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	80
Eliazar Dishmey R 2023 · 6.05 FIP	18	SW	6.05	17.9%	15.1%	4.6%	.302	3.83	21.9%	9.2%	268	-2.22	3.40	311	80
Alexander Cornielle R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	19	SW	4.01	24.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.329	4.37	19.2%	7.6%	312	+0.36	3.88	548	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	28	20.7%	11.9%	1.10	4.85
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58