Ricardo Reyes — OGILVIE

Ricardo Reyes P DSL Athletics

Age 18 RHP 6'2" / 175 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.1 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.91

FIP4.91

K%19.5%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%7.9%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.6M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	12	5	33	141	26	14	1	42%	2.8	12.5%	12.4%	0.1%	1.1%	2.45	4.24	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	12	5	33	141	26	14	1	42%	2.8	12.5%	12.4%	0.1%	1.1%	2.45	4.24	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	12	5	33	141	26	14	1	42%	2.8	18.4%	9.9%	8.5%	0.7%	2.45	3.19	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	11	11	46	209	39	21	5	100%	4.2	12.7%	12.6%	0.1%	3.3%	4.86	5.46	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	11	11	46	209	39	21	5	100%	4.2	12.7%	12.6%	0.1%	3.3%	4.86	5.46	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	OAK	11	11	46	209	39	21	5	100%	4.2	18.7%	10.0%	8.6%	2.4%	4.86	4.11	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	48	201	41	21	6	100%	4.8	20.5%	10.7%	9.8%	2.9%	4.75	4.68	+0.1
2028	20	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	50	212	45	21	6	100%	5.0	21.1%	10.0%	11.2%	2.8%	4.59	4.51	+0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	53	222	48	21	6	100%	4.8	21.7%	9.5%	12.2%	2.8%	4.45	4.37	+0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	55	233	53	21	6	100%	5.0	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	2.7%	4.29	4.19	+0.5
2031	23	MLB MLE	OAK	11	11	57	242	56	21	6	100%	5.2	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	2.7%	4.15	4.06	+0.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	59	248	59	21	7	100%	5.9	23.9%	8.3%	15.6%	2.6%	4.04	3.96	+0.7
2033	25	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	59	251	61	20	7	100%	5.9	24.3%	8.2%	16.1%	2.6%	3.96	3.91	+0.7
2034	26	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	59	251	61	20	7	100%	5.9	24.5%	8.1%	16.3%	2.6%	3.92	3.89	+0.7
2035	27	MLB MLE	OAK	10	10	58	247	60	20	7	100%	5.8	24.4%	8.2%	16.3%	2.7%	3.92	3.92	+0.7
2027	19	MLB CTX	OAK	5	5	23	97	20	10	3	100%	4.6	20.5%	10.7%	9.8%	2.8%	4.71	4.64	+0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	OAK	8	8	37	156	33	16	4	100%	4.6	21.1%	10.0%	11.2%	2.8%	4.55	4.47	+0.2
2029	21	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	44	186	40	18	5	100%	4.9	21.7%	9.5%	12.2%	2.7%	4.41	4.33	+0.3
2030	22	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	50	211	48	19	6	100%	5.0	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	2.7%	4.25	4.15	+0.4
2031	23	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	53	224	52	19	6	100%	5.3	23.3%	8.5%	14.8%	2.6%	4.11	4.02	+0.5
2032	24	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	55	232	55	19	6	100%	5.5	23.9%	8.3%	15.6%	2.6%	4.00	3.92	+0.6
2033	25	MLB CTX	OAK	10	10	56	236	57	19	6	100%	5.6	24.3%	8.2%	16.1%	2.6%	3.92	3.87	+0.7
2034	26	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	56	236	58	19	6	100%	6.2	24.5%	8.1%	16.3%	2.6%	3.88	3.85	+0.7
2035	27	MLB CTX	OAK	9	9	56	236	58	19	6	100%	6.2	24.4%	8.2%	16.3%	2.6%	3.88	3.88	+0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		79	79	430	1817	422	159	48	100%	5.4	23.2%	8.7%	14.5%	2.6%	4.13	3.69	+6.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	37	200	844	196	74	22	100%	5.4	23.2%	8.7%	14.5%	2.6%	4.13	3.69	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		23	16	79	350	44	44	9	70%	3.4	12.6%	12.5%	0.1%	2.5%	3.86	4.97	+4.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	40	200	882	111	110	22	70%	3.4	12.6%	12.5%	0.1%	2.5%	3.86	4.97	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ricardo Reyes (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	19.5%	11.6%	2.9%	—	4.51	21.1%	11.1%	150	-0.40	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	84
Yohanse Morel R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	18	SP-	4.77	17.0%	10.0%	3.4%	.350	5.18	16.2%	2.7%	96	+0.41	3.33	263	83
Carlos Naveda R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	18	SP	3.77	19.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.297	2.63	16.9%	11.7%	64	-1.14	2.63	120	83
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	83
Regi Grace R 2019 · 3.92 FIP	19	SP	3.92	16.3%	11.2%	1.4%	.333	4.23	20.5%	8.8%	86	+0.31	3.44	224	83
Cesar Espinal R 2023 · 4.28 FIP	17	SP	4.28	17.0%	10.1%	2.4%	.303	6.16	16.1%	-4.2%	56	+1.88	4.28	109	83
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	83
Jose Cedeno R 2019 · 4.66 FIP	17	SP-	4.66	15.3%	9.7%	3.0%	.271	3.39	21.5%	12.9%	88	-1.27	2.80	123	83
Andry Lara R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	18	SP-	4.98	19.1%	9.7%	4.1%	.294	4.77	16.6%	6.7%	334	-0.21	4.57	535	82
Donny Troconis R 2023 · 5.31 FIP	17	SP-	5.31	16.0%	9.4%	4.3%	.293	5.06	14.9%	2.2%	180	-0.25	3.15	224	82
Christian Fernandez R 2018 · 4.50 FIP	18	SP-	4.50	17.0%	12.6%	2.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	324	82
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	82
Manuel Perez R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	17	SP-	4.04	17.5%	11.8%	1.7%	.366	5.09	13.7%	-1.1%	117	+1.05	3.40	188	81
Eric Prado R 2023 · 4.15 FIP	17	SP-	4.15	16.6%	11.5%	1.8%	.222	7.05	14.8%	-0.5%	90	+2.90	4.15	131	81
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	81
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	80
Gabriel Rodriguez R 2022 · 3.99 FIP	18	SP-	3.99	17.1%	12.0%	1.5%	.320	4.58	15.1%	0.3%	115	+0.59	3.40	278	79
Jose Espada R 2015 · 4.42 FIP	18	SP-	4.42	15.5%	7.4%	3.1%	.234	5.09	9.6%	3.5%	53	+0.67	4.09	355	79
Miguel Rondon R 2019 · 4.47 FIP	18	SP-	4.47	18.9%	9.4%	3.2%	.361	7.30	18.1%	2.1%	88	+2.83	2.62	179	79
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	52	22.9%	9.0%	1.05	4.24
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68