Andry Lara
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.0
WAR
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 180 lbs
AAA
Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030
peak 1.1 · 2030
ERA6.50
FIP4.97
xFIP5.02
SIERA4.80
K%17.4%
BB%10.3%
K-BB%7.1%
IP81
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.1peak
2030
K†4050
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p1013.3%
K%
p1012.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.394
SI (22%)
FB-3.5 (62%)
SL-5.4 (33%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 11 | 9 | 48 | 205 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 4.66 | 4.94 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 23 | 23 | 101 | 451 | 105 | 44 | 10 | 17.2% | 11.5% | 2.7% | 5.51 | 4.60 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 23 | 23 | 98 | 416 | 66 | 34 | 11 | 12.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 4.58 | 5.20 | +0.1 |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Harrisburg Senators | 25 | 25 | 135 | 543 | 132 | 44 | 16 | 19.4% | 9.0% | 3.6% | 3.34 | 4.56 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 22 | MLB | Washington Nationals | 31 | 10 | 70 | 348 | 51 | 39 | 7 | 12.7% | 12.0% | 2.6% | 7.81 | 4.98 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 3 | 2 | 11 | 46 | 13 | 3 | 3 | — | — | — | 4.09 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | 15 | 15 | 81 | 340 | 59 | 35 | 10 | 17.4% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 6.50 | 4.97 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 92 | 386 | 72 | 38 | 13 | 18.7% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 6.21 | 4.37 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 99 | 416 | 79 | 40 | 12 | 19.0% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 5.41 | 4.73 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 94 | 43 | 14 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.90 | 4.59 | +0.9 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 119 | 502 | 102 | 45 | 15 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.53 | +1.0 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 122 | 515 | 105 | 46 | 15 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.53 | +1.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 122 | 516 | 105 | 47 | 16 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.57 | 4.56 | +1.0 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 119 | 504 | 100 | 46 | 15 | 19.9% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.61 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 116 | 489 | 95 | 45 | 15 | 19.4% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.68 | 4.73 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 20 | 20 | 112 | 472 | 89 | 44 | 15 | 18.8% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.77 | 4.83 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 107 | 453 | 82 | 43 | 15 | 18.1% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.88 | 4.95 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 102 | 432 | 76 | 42 | 15 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 5.00 | 5.07 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 97 | 411 | 69 | 41 | 14 | 16.8% | 9.9% | 3.5% | 5.13 | 5.21 | +0.1 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 92 | 387 | 62 | 39 | 14 | 16.1% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 5.27 | 5.36 | -0.1 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 16 | 16 | 86 | 362 | 55 | 37 | 13 | 15.3% | 10.3% | 3.7% | 5.42 | 5.53 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 116 | 92 | 464 | 2009 | 330 | 205 | 67 | 16.4% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.91 | 4.83 | +2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 40 | 200 | 866 | 142 | 88 | 29 | 16.4% | 10.2% | 3.3% | 4.91 | 4.83 | +1.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andry Lara (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.97 | 17.4% | 10.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.61 | 19.8% | 10.6% | 329 | -0.36 | — | — | — |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.62 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .263 | 4.85 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.23 | 3.77 | 350 | 77 |
| Tyler Wehrle R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.08 | 15.8% | 10.5% | 1.8% | .300 | 5.43 | 15.1% | 3.4% | 60 | +1.35 | 4.08 | 141 | 76 |
| Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 18.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .329 | 3.95 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 118 | -0.35 | 2.58 | 199 | 75 |
| Jake Christianson R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .309 | 4.72 | 16.4% | 6.1% | 105 | +0.73 | 3.99 | 188 | 75 |
| Dakota Hawkins R 2027 · 4.40 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.40 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .277 | 3.52 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 44 | -0.88 | 3.52 | 128 | 75 |
| Kyle Smith R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.01 | 14.7% | 8.7% | 3.8% | .326 | 3.31 | 15.2% | 9.5% | 76 | -1.70 | 3.31 | 159 | 75 |
| Levi Stoudt R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.60 | 19.9% | 12.5% | 2.9% | .257 | 5.68 | 16.1% | 5.2% | 289 | +1.08 | 4.35 | 395 | 75 |
| Levi Thomas R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.33 | 18.1% | 11.9% | 4.1% | .328 | 5.16 | 20.8% | 3.3% | 31 | -0.17 | 5.16 | 116 | 74 |
| Tommy Mace R 2026 · 5.53 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.53 | 16.0% | 12.1% | 4.1% | .261 | 5.07 | 14.7% | 2.7% | 376 | -0.46 | 4.89 | 461 | 74 |
| Juan Grijalva R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.38 | 14.2% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .271 | 5.68 | 11.9% | 2.7% | 24 | +1.30 | 4.38 | 110 | 74 |
| Erich Uelmen R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .299 | 4.56 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 159 | -0.07 | 3.48 | 383 | 74 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.39 | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .286 | 4.23 | 16.1% | 7.8% | 91 | -0.16 | 3.32 | 252 | 74 |
| Jarred Cosart R 2028 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.09 | 15.2% | 10.8% | 3.5% | .274 | 4.93 | 13.1% | -0.5% | 132 | -0.16 | 4.10 | 218 | 73 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 12.7% | 9.1% | 3.3% | .348 | 3.91 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 135 | -1.09 | 3.28 | 218 | 73 |
| Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.72 | 20.2% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.89 | 17.4% | 3.3% | 197 | +0.17 | 4.28 | 448 | 73 |
| Carlos Sano R 2028 · 4.88 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.88 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.4% | .282 | 9.12 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.24 | 4.88 | 105 | 73 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 73 |
| Emmanuel Chapman R 2028 · 4.03 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.03 | 19.7% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.80 | 18.2% | 4.1% | 73 | -0.23 | 3.80 | 154 | 73 |
| Connor Johnstone R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.40 | 15.7% | 7.6% | 3.0% | .272 | 4.53 | 12.9% | 7.9% | 166 | +0.13 | 3.81 | 319 | 72 |
| Dillon Tate R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.21 | 14.4% | 7.0% | 2.6% | .255 | 3.95 | 16.8% | 9.5% | 195 | -0.26 | 3.08 | 599 | 72 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status Pre-Arb
MLB Debut 2025
Service 1.000 yrs.days
Team Control Through 2030
First FA Year 2031
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.1 | $0.4M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.6 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2028 | Arb-1 | $2M | +0.9 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2029 | Arb-2 | $5M | +1.0 | $9M | +$4M |
| 2030 | Arb-3 | $7M | +1.1 | $10M | +$3M |
| Totals | $15M | $25M | +$10M | ||