Andry Lara — OGILVIE

Andry Lara P Rochester Red Wings

Age 23 RHP 6'4" / 180 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION110 act + 12 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.01

FIP5.28

K%13.5%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%3.3%

ROS IP12

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 122 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CMD4045

K†3045

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4594.2

Whiff%

p1013.3%

p1012.8%

xwOBA vs

p100.394

SI (22%)

FB-3.5 (62%)

SL-5.4 (33%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	9	48	205	52	21	7	82%	4.4	19.1%	9.7%	9.4%	4.1%	4.66	4.98	—
2021	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	9	48	205	52	21	7	82%	4.4	25.4%	10.2%	15.1%	3.4%	4.66	4.13	—
2022	19	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	23	23	101	451	105	44	10	100%	4.4	17.2%	11.5%	5.7%	2.7%	5.51	4.58	—
2022	19	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	23	23	101	451	105	44	10	100%	4.4	23.3%	9.8%	13.5%	2.2%	5.51	3.61	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	23	23	98	416	66	34	11	100%	4.3	12.2%	9.4%	2.8%	3.6%	4.58	5.25	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	23	23	98	416	66	34	11	100%	4.3	12.2%	9.4%	2.8%	3.6%	4.58	5.25	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	23	23	98	416	66	34	11	100%	4.3	15.9%	8.2%	7.7%	2.6%	4.58	4.25	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	135	543	132	44	16	100%	5.4	19.4%	9.0%	10.4%	3.6%	3.34	4.57	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	135	543	132	44	16	100%	5.4	19.4%	9.0%	10.4%	3.6%	3.34	4.57	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	135	543	132	44	16	100%	5.4	24.3%	8.1%	16.2%	2.9%	3.34	3.66	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	31	10	70	348	51	39	7	32%	2.3	12.2%	10.7%	1.5%	2.5%	7.81	4.83	-0.2
2025	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	31	10	70	348	51	39	7	32%	2.3	12.2%	10.7%	1.5%	2.5%	7.81	4.83	-0.2
2025	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	31	10	70	348	51	39	7	32%	2.3	14.7%	11.2%	3.4%	2.0%	7.81	4.61	-0.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			9	0	14	78	10	8	2	0%	1.6	12.8%	10.3%	2.6%	2.6%	8.79	5.19	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	34	20	110	485	91	42	15	59%	3.2	15.6%	7.8%	7.8%	3.4%	5.32	4.64	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	34	20	110	485	91	42	15	59%	3.2	15.6%	7.8%	7.8%	3.4%	5.32	4.64	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	WSH	34	20	110	485	91	42	15	59%	3.2	18.8%	8.7%	10.1%	3.1%	5.32	4.31	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	WSH	2	2	12	51	7	5	2	100%	6.0	13.5%	10.2%	3.3%	3.0%	5.01	5.28	-0.1
ROS	23	MLB CTX	WSH	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	13.5%	10.2%	3.3%	3.0%	5.01	5.28	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	122	536	98	47	17	—	—	18.3%	8.8%	9.5%	3.1%	5.29	4.70	+0.3
FULL	23	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	1	5	1	1	0	—	—	13.5%	10.2%	3.3%	3.0%	5.01	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	31	31	175	737	118	71	22	100%	5.6	16.1%	9.6%	6.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.97	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	30	30	175	739	131	69	22	100%	5.8	17.7%	9.3%	8.4%	3.0%	4.82	4.79	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	175	739	138	68	22	100%	6.0	18.7%	9.2%	9.5%	3.0%	4.73	4.69	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	172	728	136	67	22	100%	5.9	18.7%	9.2%	9.5%	3.0%	4.72	4.72	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	29	29	172	728	136	68	23	100%	5.9	18.6%	9.4%	9.3%	3.1%	4.77	4.80	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	27	27	165	695	125	67	23	100%	6.1	18.0%	9.6%	8.4%	3.3%	4.88	4.96	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	26	26	155	653	113	65	23	100%	5.9	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	3.5%	5.05	5.17	-0.5
2027	24	MLB CTX	WSH	15	15	84	355	57	34	11	100%	5.6	16.1%	9.6%	6.5%	3.0%	4.94	4.97	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	21	21	121	511	90	47	15	100%	5.8	17.7%	9.3%	8.4%	3.0%	4.82	4.79	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	142	600	112	55	18	100%	5.9	18.7%	9.2%	9.5%	3.0%	4.73	4.69	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	25	25	149	629	118	58	19	100%	6.0	18.7%	9.2%	9.5%	3.0%	4.72	4.72	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	26	26	154	650	121	61	20	100%	5.9	18.6%	9.4%	9.3%	3.1%	4.77	4.80	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	25	25	150	633	114	61	21	100%	6.0	18.0%	9.6%	8.4%	3.3%	4.88	4.96	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	24	24	143	604	105	60	21	100%	6.0	17.3%	9.9%	7.4%	3.5%	5.05	5.17	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		168	159	959	4067	728	384	126	95%	5.7	17.9%	9.5%	8.5%	3.1%	4.90	4.49	+4.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	848	152	80	26	95%	5.7	17.9%	9.5%	8.5%	3.1%	4.90	4.49	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		147	110	563	2448	391	235	80	75%	3.8	16.0%	9.6%	6.4%	3.3%	5.00	4.77	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	39	200	870	139	83	29	75%	3.8	16.0%	9.6%	6.4%	3.3%	5.00	4.77	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Andry Lara (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	13.5%	10.2%	3.0%	—	4.82	17.5%	8.1%	525	-0.46	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	82
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	81
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	79
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	79
Wellington Caceres R 2018 · 5.73 FIP	22	SP-	5.73	12.0%	11.4%	4.0%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	121	78
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	78
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	77
Mitchell Traver R 2017 · 5.56 FIP	23	SP-	5.56	11.9%	9.7%	4.1%	.392	5.21	14.3%	3.7%	82	-0.35	5.21	104	77
Caleb Boushley R 2017 · 4.11 FIP	23	SP	4.11	14.2%	10.0%	1.7%	.351	3.21	18.3%	14.2%	163	-0.90	3.05	790	76
Rafael Volquez R 2017 · 4.14 FIP	22	SP-	4.14	12.5%	8.0%	2.0%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	1.82	105	76
Jake Dunning R 2015 · 5.60 FIP	26	SP-	5.60	13.4%	9.6%	4.4%	.354	4.29	14.1%	2.8%	74	-1.31	4.19	120	76
Lauro Ramirez R 2015 · 5.80 FIP	25	SP-	5.80	9.5%	10.1%	4.1%	.382	4.99	7.2%	-3.4%	90	-0.81	4.99	140	76
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	75
Luis Ojeda R 2019 · 4.94 FIP	22	SP-	4.94	14.6%	13.4%	2.5%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	4.45	131	75
Tyler McKay R 2021 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP-	4.74	12.1%	12.8%	1.9%	.275	3.86	17.5%	7.5%	163	-0.88	3.14	275	75
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	75
Charlie Ruegger R 2019 · 5.43 FIP	22	SW	5.43	10.6%	7.9%	4.0%	.325	4.60	16.2%	4.3%	72	-0.83	4.17	117	75
Dane Myers R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	23	SW	5.32	12.2%	11.5%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	125	75
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	75
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.7	168	17.4%	9.5%	1.19	4.86
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Dylan Bundy ('22)	4.5	130	22.0%	7.3%	1.61	4.75
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01