Andry Lara
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 23
RHP
6'4" / 180 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION79 act + 65 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140131vR 122
ERA5.08
FIP5.39
K%13.7%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%2.7%
ROS IP65
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 144 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4594.2
Whiff%
p1013.3%
K%
p1012.8%
xwOBA vs
p100.394
SI (22%)
FB-3.5 (62%)
SL-5.4 (33%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 9 | 48 | 205 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 82% | 4.4 | 19.1% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 4.1% | 4.66 | 4.94 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 11 | 9 | 48 | 205 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 82% | 4.4 | 25.4% | 10.2% | 15.1% | 3.4% | 4.66 | 4.13 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 23 | 23 | 101 | 451 | 105 | 44 | 10 | 100% | 4.4 | 17.2% | 11.5% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 5.51 | 4.48 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 23 | 23 | 101 | 451 | 105 | 44 | 10 | 100% | 4.4 | 23.3% | 9.8% | 13.5% | 2.2% | 5.51 | 3.61 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 23 | 23 | 98 | 416 | 66 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 4.3 | 12.2% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.58 | 5.45 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 23 | 23 | 98 | 416 | 66 | 34 | 11 | 100% | 4.3 | 15.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 2.6% | 4.58 | 4.25 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 135 | 543 | 132 | 44 | 16 | 100% | 5.4 | 19.4% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 3.34 | 4.58 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 25 | 135 | 543 | 132 | 44 | 16 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.3% | 8.1% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 3.34 | 3.66 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 31 | 10 | 70 | 348 | 51 | 39 | 7 | 32% | 2.3 | 12.7% | 12.0% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 7.81 | 4.99 | -0.2 |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 4 levels | 31 | 10 | 70 | 348 | 51 | 39 | 7 | 32% | 2.3 | 14.7% | 11.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 7.81 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 18 | 17 | 79 | 346 | 65 | 27 | 14 | 94% | 4.4 | 16.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 5.81 | 5.18 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 38 | 30 | 8 | 100% | 5.4 | 13.7% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.08 | 5.39 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | 1 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 13.7% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.08 | 5.39 | -0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 144 | 620 | 103 | 57 | 22 | — | — | 16.5% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 3.6% | 5.48 | 5.28 | +0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 6 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — | — | 13.7% | 11.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 5.08 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 28 | 28 | 159 | 670 | 109 | 68 | 20 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 5.01 | 5.05 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 161 | 678 | 121 | 66 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.85 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 27 | 27 | 161 | 678 | 127 | 65 | 20 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.75 | +1.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 14 | 14 | 77 | 325 | 53 | 33 | 10 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.3% | 10.2% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 5.01 | 5.05 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 111 | 469 | 84 | 46 | 14 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.89 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 130 | 549 | 103 | 53 | 16 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.8% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.80 | 4.75 | +1.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 65 | 56 | 338 | 1447 | 253 | 143 | 43 | 86% | 5.2 | 17.5% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 5.05 | 4.50 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 33 | 200 | 855 | 149 | 84 | 25 | 86% | 5.2 | 17.5% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 5.05 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 131 | 107 | 532 | 2309 | 374 | 230 | 80 | 82% | 4.1 | 16.2% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 4.90 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 40 | 200 | 868 | 141 | 86 | 30 | 82% | 4.1 | 16.2% | 10.0% | 6.3% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 4.90 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Andry Lara (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.39 | 13.7% | 11.0% | 3.0% | — | 4.88 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 480 | -0.51 | — | — | — |
| Jordan Geber R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .341 | 4.51 | 15.5% | 7.5% | 176 | -0.63 | 4.16 | 239 | 84 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 84 |
| Cole Wiper R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.38 | 14.6% | 10.5% | 4.0% | .343 | 4.33 | 15.6% | 5.2% | 136 | -1.05 | 3.85 | 170 | 80 |
| Brandon White R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.11 | 16.7% | 10.3% | 3.8% | .264 | 4.10 | 17.7% | 10.4% | 245 | -1.01 | 3.90 | 264 | 79 |
| Wellington Caceres R 2025 · 5.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.73 | 12.0% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .366 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 121 | 79 |
| Ben Hansen R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.86 | 12.5% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .372 | 4.29 | 21.5% | 13.2% | 88 | -0.57 | 4.29 | 149 | 78 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 78 |
| Danny Flatt R 2025 · 5.31 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.31 | 12.9% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.31 | 112 | 78 |
| Nick Belzer R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.55 | 12.8% | 4.2% | 63 | +0.32 | 4.23 | 112 | 77 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2027 · 4.39 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.2% | .309 | 4.74 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.35 | 4.39 | 353 | 76 |
| Jurgen Jimenez R 2025 · 5.25 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.25 | 11.5% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 158 | 76 |
| Wuilberth Mendez R 2024 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.18 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 137 | 76 |
| Luis Ojeda R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.94 | 14.6% | 13.4% | 2.5% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.45 | 131 | 76 |
| Bradley Brehmer R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.40 | 14.6% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .349 | 2.88 | 21.3% | 13.7% | 82 | -1.52 | 2.76 | 153 | 76 |
| Cade Kuehler R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.21 | 15.5% | 11.2% | 1.8% | .266 | 6.79 | 14.5% | 2.4% | 73 | +2.58 | 4.21 | 123 | 75 |
| Tyler McKay R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.73 | 12.1% | 12.8% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 163 | -0.84 | 3.25 | 275 | 75 |
| Reid Schaller R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.22 | 16.3% | 13.8% | 3.2% | .241 | 4.48 | 19.9% | 7.9% | 87 | -0.74 | 3.49 | 186 | 75 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 75 |
| Dillon Drabble R 2024 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.60 | 11.2% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .370 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 110 | 75 |
| Dawson Netz R 2027 · 5.27 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.27 | 16.4% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .321 | 4.42 | 23.3% | 12.6% | 51 | -0.85 | 4.42 | 102 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 159 | 16.7% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 4.94 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |
| Chris Tillman ('18) | 4 | 116 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.34 | 5.42 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |