Carlos Martinez

C DSL Marlins

Age 19 S/R 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#692ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Giants Or…	108	.143/.264/.242	2	1	-6	—	.096/.198/.149
2026	18	ROKMIA	93	.279/.456/.426	1	7	74	—	.189/.333/.284
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBMIA	203	.235/.310/.330	2	4	83	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBMIA	37	.230/.307/.326	0	1	87	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBMIA	97	.232/.310/.334	1	2	90	0.3

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

K%94

BB%82

wOBA81

wRC+76

Chase%70

Speed70

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsPedro Ramírez (age 19) · Diego Velasquez (age 20) · Xavier Edwards (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj PA

wRC+†83

AVG/OBP/SLG.233 / .308 / .328

PA51

HR0

K%23

BB%8

ISO96

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$41M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 71 / POW 38

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT71

scouting grade only

POWER38

scouting grade only

EYE62

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.3M
2037	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$6M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$10M	+$5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Giants Orange	—	108	91	13	3	0	2	10	13	5	1	2	143	264	242	506	99	141	12	9	240	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Marlins	—	93	68	19	3	2	1	19	10	3	7	5	279	456	426	882	147	305	11	20	391	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	—	108	94	9	2	0	1	7	16	5	1	2	96	198	149	347	53	92	15	6	160	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	93	74	14	2	1	1	13	12	3	7	5	189	333	284	617	95	201	13	14	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	—	108	94	9	2	0	1	7	16	5	1	2	96	198	149	347	53	101	15	6	160	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Orange	—	108	91	13	3	0	2	10	13	5	1	2	143	264	242	506	99	141	12	9	240	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	93	74	14	2	1	1	13	12	3	7	5	189	333	284	617	95	206	13	14	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Marlins	—	93	68	19	3	2	1	19	10	3	7	5	279	456	426	882	147	305	11	20	391	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	—	108	95	9	2	0	1	7	16	5	1	2	95	198	147	345	53	92	15	6	160	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	93	77	14	2	1	1	13	12	3	7	5	182	333	273	606	91	201	13	14	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Orange	—	108	95	9	2	0	1	7	16	5	1	2	95	198	147	345	53	92	15	6	160	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Marlins	—	93	77	14	2	1	1	13	12	3	7	5	182	333	273	606	91	201	13	14	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	203	181	42	7	2	2	17	46	3	4	1	235	310	330	641	96	301	23	8	291	83	-4	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	107	95	23	4	1	1	9	24	2	2	1	238	314	340	655	103	302	22	8	297	87	-2	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.3
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIA	48%	201	179	43	7	2	3	17	45	3	4	1	240	317	349	666	109	302	22	8	301	90	-2	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.6
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIA	54%	312	278	68	12	3	5	26	69	5	7	2	242	319	356	675	114	303	22	8	305	92	-3	+1	+0	+6	+7	1.0
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	397	354	87	15	4	7	33	88	7	9	3	243	320	362	682	118	303	22	8	307	94	-3	+1	+0	+7	+9	1.4
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	445	398	97	17	4	8	37	98	7	10	3	244	321	366	687	122	303	22	8	309	95	-2	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.6
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIA	57%	445	398	97	17	4	8	37	98	7	10	3	245	321	367	689	123	303	22	8	310	96	-2	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.7
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	445	398	97	17	4	8	37	98	7	10	3	245	321	368	689	123	303	22	8	310	96	-2	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.7
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	445	397	97	17	4	8	38	99	7	9	3	244	320	365	685	121	303	22	9	308	95	-3	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.6
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIA	55%	445	398	97	17	4	8	37	100	7	9	3	242	318	360	678	118	302	22	8	306	93	-4	+1	-1	+8	+10	1.4
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	445	398	95	16	4	7	37	101	7	8	3	239	315	354	669	114	301	23	8	302	91	-5	+0	-1	+8	+10	1.2
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIA	53%	445	398	95	16	4	7	37	102	7	8	4	237	312	346	658	110	299	23	8	298	88	-7	+0	-2	+8	+10	0.9
2039	31	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	426	382	88	15	3	6	35	100	6	6	4	232	307	336	643	104	296	23	8	292	84	-8	-0	-3	+8	+9	0.5
2040	32	MLB MLE	MIA	52%	407	365	83	14	3	5	33	97	6	6	6	227	301	324	625	97	293	24	8	284	79	-10	-1	-4	+7	+9	0.1
2041	33	MLB MLE	MIA	56%	356	320	71	11	3	4	28	87	5	5	9	221	294	310	604	88	289	24	8	275	73	-12	-3	-4	+6	+8	-0.4
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	37	33	7	1	0	0	3	8	1	1	0	230	307	326	633	96	292	22	8	288	87	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIA	48%	97	87	20	3	1	1	8	22	2	2	1	232	310	334	644	102	293	23	8	293	90	-1	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.3
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIA	54%	169	150	36	6	2	2	14	37	3	4	1	234	312	341	652	107	293	22	8	296	92	-2	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.6
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	225	200	48	8	2	4	19	50	4	5	2	236	313	346	659	111	293	22	8	298	94	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.8
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	252	225	53	9	2	4	21	56	4	5	2	237	314	351	664	114	294	22	8	300	95	-1	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.9
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIA	57%	251	224	53	9	2	4	21	55	4	5	2	237	314	352	666	115	294	22	8	301	96	-1	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.9
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	251	224	53	9	2	4	21	55	4	5	2	237	314	352	666	115	293	22	8	301	96	-1	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.9
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	247	220	51	8	2	4	21	55	4	5	2	236	313	349	662	113	293	22	9	299	95	-2	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.9
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIA	55%	244	217	51	8	2	4	21	55	4	5	2	234	311	345	656	111	292	23	9	297	93	-2	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.8
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	238	212	50	8	2	4	20	54	4	4	2	232	309	339	647	107	291	23	8	293	91	-3	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.6
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIA	53%	234	209	48	8	2	3	19	54	4	4	2	229	305	331	637	102	290	23	8	289	88	-3	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.5
2039	31	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	222	199	45	7	2	3	18	52	3	3	2	225	301	322	623	97	287	23	8	284	84	-4	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.3
2040	32	MLB CTX	MIA	52%	211	189	42	6	2	3	17	50	3	3	3	220	295	311	606	90	284	24	8	276	79	-5	-1	-2	+4	+5	0.1
2041	33	MLB CTX	MIA	56%	199	178	38	6	1	2	16	49	3	3	5	215	288	297	585	82	280	25	8	268	73	-7	-1	-2	+4	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2877	2567	595	96	24	42	239	652	47	54	28	232	309	337	646	105	293	23	8	292	88	-35	-0	-8	+51	+62	7.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	134	22	5	9	54	147	11	12	6	231	309	333	642	102	293	23	8	292	88	-8	-0	-2	+12	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	5573	4972	1172	201	49	87	465	1246	92	112	55	236	313	348	661	113	296	22	8	298	88	-66	+2	-15	+96	+116	13.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	580	136	23	6	10	54	145	11	13	6	234	312	347	658	112	294	22	8	298	88	-8	+0	-2	+12	+14	1.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Marlins · 93 PAwOBA .391 → .277 (−114)K% 10.8% → 13.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	10.75%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	13.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.43%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.995	14.23%
HBP% /PA	3.23%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	2.25%
Singles /BIP	22.41%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.011	×0.995	15.34%
Doubles /BIP	5.17%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.011	×0.995	3.12%
Triples /BIP	3.45%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.011	×0.995	2.08%
Home runs /BIP	1.72%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.81%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.

Result: wOBA .391 → .277; ISO .147 → .093; BABIP .305 → .201. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Giants Orange · 108 PAwOBA .239 → .160 (−79)K% 12.0% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.04%	÷0.972	×1.220	—	—	15.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.26%	÷0.974	×0.700	—	×1.008	6.70%
HBP% /PA	4.63%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	3.27%
Singles /BIP	10.26%	÷0.995	×0.680	×0.974	×1.008	6.88%
Doubles /BIP	3.85%	÷0.933	×0.600	×0.974	×1.008	2.43%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.600	×0.974	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.56%	÷0.963	×0.470	—	×1.008	1.26%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 93, 1B 99, 2B 87, 3B 80, K 94, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .239 → .160; ISO .099 → .055; BABIP .141 → .092. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#3Mike Fitzgerald'83-'92 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,667 PA	4.0	2,667	48	31	234*	320*	372*	+43	-1	9.5	9.3
/162	664	12	8	+10.8	-0.3	2.4	pk7: 9
#4Jorge Alfarolast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,693 PA	2.5	1,693	48	18	254	303	396	+30	+17	9.1	9.1
/162	664	19	7	+11.9	+6.6	3.6	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.4	2,929	46	56	240	312	353	+52	+32	9.6	8.3
/162	664	10	13	+11.9	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 7
#5Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#6Jake Gibbs'63-'71 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	25	28	244*	299*	362*	+32	+0	5.4	5.4
/162	664	9	10	+11.9	+0.0	2.0	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Martinez (OGILVIE)	19	66→71	33→38	50→55	62	233/308/328	95	301	0	1	23%	8%	83	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pedro Ramírez 2023 · A	19	50→57	40→45	53→55	44	237/287/335	98	286	6	14	19%	5%	76	-0.4	245/302/345	100	311	7	14	22%	7%	84	+0.1	265/318/375	110	323	9	22	20%	6%	95	+0.8
✕Diego Velasquez 2024 · A	20	49→59	40	50	46	234/299/328	94	301	7	12	24%	7%	80	-0.2	253/321/334	81	323	4	15	21%	8%	88	+0.5	262/334/335	73	332	3	18	20%	8%	91	+0.6
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	53→63	37→40	56→60	50	245/308/320	75	309	3	18	21%	8%	80	-0.2	257/303/319	62	306	1	19	15%	6%	77	-0.3	308/366/390	82	353	4	36	13%	8%	116	+2.2
✕Max Moroff 2013 · A	20	51→60	39→50	48→50	52	239/316/323	85	302	6	12	22%	10%	84	+0.2	217/281/304	87	307	5	10	29%	8%	67	-1.1	242/324/370	128	322	13	10	27%	10%	96	+0.8
✕Aron Estrada 2024 · A	19	47→54	41→50	52→55	54	220/310/327	107	272	6	9	20%	10%	84	+0.2	247/301/365	118	304	11	21	22%	6%	88	+0.5	258/306/387	130	312	14	21	21%	5%	93	+0.7
✕Alejo Lopez 2016 · A	20	51→61	38→40	46→55	51	239/308/319	80	277	4	9	15%	7%	80	-0.1	229/282/302	73	267	4	10	15%	6%	66	-1.1	269/335/357	88	309	5	12	14%	8%	96	+0.8
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	51→61	41→50	49→50	60	240/338/346	106	301	8	10	21%	13%	98	+1.2	254/339/391	137	339	12	14	26%	11%	109	+2.0	249/334/388	139	323	13	15	25%	11%	105	+1.7
✕Steve Lombardozzi Jr. 2010 · A	21	53→61	37→45	50	48	249/306/326	77	312	3	9	20%	7%	81	-0.1	267/314/367	100	317	5	14	16%	6%	93	+0.8	277/321/379	102	321	5	16	15%	5%	96	+1.0
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Domingo Leyba 2015 · A	19	54→52	40→50	48→45	50	255/312/355	100	296	6	10	16%	7%	90	+0.6	228/268/312	84	282	6	7	20%	5%	63	-1.4	240/289/360	120	286	11	4	19%	6%	80	-0.1
●Angel Genao 2024 · A	20	47→57	39→45	48→50	48	224/290/313	89	292	6	9	24%	8%	73	-0.6	262/314/381	119	324	9	12	21%	7%	97	+1.1	271/329/396	125	328	10	12	19%	8%	104	+1.3
✕Keibert Ruiz 2017 · A	19	51→59	38→50	47→40	44	239/276/325	86	280	4	4	16%	4%	69	-0.9	254/295/354	100	286	9	2	14%	4%	83	+0.1	257/310/410	154	264	19	3	11%	6%	103	+1.2
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
●Josue De Paula 2024 · A	19	52→54	38→50	51→55	52	242/326/327	85	316	5	14	23%	10%	89	+0.5	236/331/360	124	307	12	20	25%	12%	99	+1.3	241/338/391	150	298	16	24	23%	12%	106	+1.5
●Alek Thomas 2019 · A	19	51→57	38→50	51→50	45	241/287/329	88	302	4	10	21%	6%	74	-0.6	251/307/379	128	337	10	10	27%	7%	93	+0.8	255/313/401	146	322	13	11	24%	7%	98	+1.0
●Chance Sisco 2014 · A	19	54→64	38→50	47→40	47	247/319/327	80	341	5	6	27%	8%	86	+0.3	281/335/373	92	363	6	4	22%	7%	102	+1.5	296/352/391	94	378	6	3	22%	7%	110	+1.5
✕Tomás Telis 2011 · A	20	51→61	38→45	53→45	43	239/269/322	83	268	5	9	13%	4%	65	-1.2	249/274/337	88	280	6	8	14%	2%	71	-0.8	283/314/371	88	318	6	6	13%	4%	91	+0.5
✕Jaison Chourio 2024 · A	19	49→55	36→40	55	55	224/319/299	75	316	2	18	27%	12%	80	-0.1	232/327/322	90	320	6	23	26%	12%	88	+0.5	235/331/328	92	319	6	27	25%	12%	90	+0.4
●Andrés Giménez 2018 · A	19	50→59	38→50	48→55	49	236/308/322	86	282	5	11	18%	7%	82	-0.0	242/299/351	109	312	7	23	24%	5%	84	+0.2	260/322/413	154	311	16	25	21%	5%	109	+1.8
●Adael Amador 2022 · A	19	46→56	41→50	45→55	48	223/287/324	101	278	9	11	23%	8%	74	-0.5	249/327/380	131	292	14	17	19%	9%	102	+1.5	244/325/378	134	283	16	23	19%	10%	99	+0.9

Carlos Martinez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps