Miguel Welch — OGILVIE

Miguel WelchSS DSL Red Sox Blue

Age 18 L/R 5'11" / 158 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION219 act + 20 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†78

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .300 / .278

PA20

HR0

K%20

BB%10

BABIP284

ISO56

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$85M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.6	$8M	+$8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.7	$8M	+$8M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.7	$7M	+$7M
2035	Arb-1	$6M	+1.7	$7M	+$5M
2036	Arb-2	$9M	+1.5	$6M	+$2M
2037	Arb-3	$12M	+1.4	$5M	+$1.0M
Totals		$30M		$41M	+$30M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	139	42	13	2	1	26	20	2	16	5	302	419	446	865	144	345	12	15	388	149	+10	+1	—	—	+4	1.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	150	34	10	1	1	15	30	2	16	5	227	305	327	632	100	273	18	9	281	76	-5	+1	—	—	+4	0.0
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	150	34	10	1	1	15	30	2	16	5	227	305	327	632	100	275	18	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	139	42	13	2	1	26	20	2	16	5	302	419	446	865	144	345	12	15	388	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	149	34	10	1	1	15	30	2	16	5	228	305	329	634	101	273	18	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	149	34	10	1	1	15	30	2	16	5	228	305	329	634	101	273	18	9	281	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	BOS	—	219	193	43	4	2	2	24	36	0	33	6	223	309	295	604	73	263	16	11	280	76	-6	+4	+0	+2	+5	0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK RAW	BOS	—	219	178	52	5	3	3	39	25	0	33	6	292	419	404	824	112	325	11	18	374	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	18	ROK MLE	BOS	0%	20	18	4	1	0	0	2	4	0	1	0	222	300	278	578	56	280	20	10	284	78	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	18	ROK MLE	BOS	—	239	211	47	5	2	2	26	40	0	34	6	223	308	294	602	71	265	17	11	280	76	-7	+4	+0	+3	+5	0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	BOS	43%	270	241	57	9	2	4	25	54	2	9	2	237	313	340	654	104	286	20	9	298	88	-4	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.6
2028	20	MLB MLE	BOS	61%	391	347	83	13	3	7	37	78	4	12	2	239	320	354	674	115	288	20	9	305	93	-3	+2	+0	+4	+8	1.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	BOS	68%	481	427	104	17	4	9	46	95	5	13	2	244	324	365	690	122	289	20	10	310	96	-2	+2	+0	+5	+10	1.5
2030	22	MLB MLE	BOS	71%	543	481	118	19	4	11	52	106	5	14	3	245	325	370	695	125	290	20	10	313	98	-1	+2	+0	+6	+12	1.8
2031	23	MLB MLE	BOS	72%	585	518	127	20	5	12	56	114	6	15	3	245	326	373	698	127	291	19	10	315	99	-0	+2	+0	+6	+13	2.1
2032	24	MLB MLE	BOS	72%	612	542	134	21	5	13	59	118	6	16	3	247	328	376	704	129	292	19	10	317	100	+0	+2	+0	+7	+13	2.3
2033	25	MLB MLE	BOS	71%	627	555	137	22	5	13	61	121	6	16	3	247	328	375	703	128	292	19	10	317	101	+1	+2	+0	+7	+14	2.3
2034	26	MLB MLE	BOS	71%	634	562	139	22	5	14	61	122	6	16	3	247	328	379	707	132	292	19	10	318	101	+1	+2	+0	+7	+14	2.4
2035	27	MLB MLE	BOS	70%	634	561	139	22	5	14	62	123	6	16	3	248	329	380	709	132	292	19	10	318	101	+1	+2	+0	+7	+14	2.4
2036	28	MLB MLE	BOS	69%	629	556	137	22	5	13	62	123	6	15	3	246	329	374	703	128	291	20	10	317	101	+0	+2	-1	+7	+14	2.2
2037	29	MLB MLE	BOS	67%	619	547	134	21	5	13	61	122	6	14	3	245	327	373	700	128	291	20	10	315	99	-0	+2	-1	+7	+13	2.0
2038	30	MLB MLE	BOS	66%	608	537	131	21	5	12	60	121	6	14	2	244	327	369	695	125	290	20	10	313	98	-2	+2	-2	+7	+13	1.8
2039	31	MLB MLE	BOS	65%	594	524	125	20	4	11	59	120	6	13	2	239	323	355	678	116	288	20	10	309	95	-3	+2	-3	+6	+13	1.5
2040	32	MLB MLE	BOS	65%	575	507	120	18	4	11	57	119	6	12	2	237	321	353	674	116	285	21	10	304	92	-6	+2	-4	+6	+12	1.1
2041	33	MLB MLE	BOS	70%	545	481	112	17	4	9	54	115	5	11	2	233	317	341	658	108	282	21	10	297	87	-8	+1	-4	+6	+12	0.7
2042	34	MLB MLE	BOS	66%	498	442	98	14	3	8	49	109	4	9	2	222	305	321	626	100	277	22	10	289	82	-11	+1	-5	+5	+11	0.1
2027	19	MLB CTX	BOS	43%	117	104	25	4	1	2	11	23	1	4	1	240	319	356	675	115	291	20	9	294	88	-2	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.3
2028	20	MLB CTX	BOS	61%	238	211	52	9	2	4	23	47	2	7	1	246	326	365	691	118	293	20	10	300	93	-2	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.7
2029	21	MLB CTX	BOS	68%	328	291	71	12	2	6	31	65	3	9	2	244	323	361	684	117	294	20	9	305	96	-2	+1	+0	+4	+7	1.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	BOS	71%	386	342	85	14	3	8	37	76	4	10	2	249	329	377	706	129	295	20	10	308	98	-1	+1	+0	+4	+8	1.3
2031	23	MLB CTX	BOS	72%	423	375	94	16	3	9	41	82	4	11	2	251	331	381	712	131	296	19	10	310	99	-0	+1	+0	+5	+9	1.5
2032	24	MLB CTX	BOS	72%	438	389	97	16	3	9	42	85	4	11	2	249	329	375	704	126	296	19	10	311	100	+0	+1	+0	+5	+9	1.6
2033	25	MLB CTX	BOS	71%	446	395	99	17	3	9	43	86	5	11	2	251	332	377	709	127	296	19	10	312	101	+0	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.7
2034	26	MLB CTX	BOS	71%	450	398	100	17	3	9	44	87	5	11	2	251	333	377	710	126	296	19	10	312	101	+1	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.7
2035	27	MLB CTX	BOS	70%	441	390	97	16	3	9	43	85	5	11	2	249	331	374	705	126	296	19	10	312	101	+1	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.7
2036	28	MLB CTX	BOS	69%	433	383	96	16	3	9	43	84	4	10	2	251	333	379	711	128	296	19	10	311	101	+0	+1	-0	+5	+9	1.5
2037	29	MLB CTX	BOS	67%	414	366	91	15	3	8	41	82	4	10	2	249	331	372	702	123	295	20	10	310	99	-0	+1	-1	+4	+9	1.4
2038	30	MLB CTX	BOS	66%	400	353	87	14	3	8	40	80	4	9	2	246	330	371	701	125	295	20	10	307	98	-1	+1	-1	+4	+9	1.2
2039	31	MLB CTX	BOS	65%	387	342	83	14	2	7	38	78	4	8	2	243	326	357	682	114	293	20	10	304	95	-2	+1	-2	+4	+8	0.9
2040	32	MLB CTX	BOS	65%	373	329	79	13	2	7	37	77	4	8	1	240	324	356	680	116	290	21	10	298	92	-4	+1	-2	+4	+8	0.7
2041	33	MLB CTX	BOS	70%	383	338	78	12	2	6	38	81	4	8	1	231	316	331	647	101	286	21	10	292	87	-6	+1	-3	+4	+8	0.5
2042	34	MLB CTX	BOS	66%	327	289	66	10	2	5	32	71	3	6	1	228	312	329	640	100	281	22	10	284	82	-7	+1	-3	+4	+7	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	5984	5295	1300	215	40	115	584	1189	60	144	27	246	327	366	694	121	295	20	10	306	96	-25	+18	-13	+64	+130	17.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	140	23	4	12	63	129	7	16	3	243	326	360	686	117	293	20	10	306	96	-3	+2	-1	+7	+14	1.9
Career	—	MLE		—	9033	7996	1933	309	69	175	878	1794	87	232	45	242	323	363	687	122	290	20	10	310	96	-39	+27	-20	+95	+192	26.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	139	22	5	13	63	129	6	17	3	242	322	365	688	123	289	20	10	310	96	-3	+2	-1	+7	+14	1.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Stephen Drewlast yr '17 career totals — 12 seasons, 4,917 PA	7.4	4,917	123	41	252	318	423	+48	+35	26.3	25.1
/162	664	17	6	+6.5	+4.7	3.5	pk7: 24
#2Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	8.4	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
/162	664	7	18	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21
#3Kolten Wonglast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,283 PA	6.5	4,283	86	120	256	330	390	+15	+21	18.4	17.8
/162	664	13	19	+2.4	+3.2	2.8	pk7: 17
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 12 projected seasons	9.3	6,149	120	149	243	321	366	+64	+36	22.4	17.8
/162	664	13	16	+6.9	+3.9	2.4	pk7: 13
#4Freddy Galvislast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	6.4	4,238	109	57	246	292	387	+42	+68	18.0	17.6
/162	664	17	9	+6.6	+10.6	2.8	pk7: 17
#5Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	5.0	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
/162	664	17	4	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
#6Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Miguel Welch (OGILVIE)	18	55	30	60	60	226/303/314	88	280	2	12	20%	9%	78	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alvaro Montero 2018 · A	18	48	35→30	52→60	54	219/315/281	62	294	3	16	24%	11%	76	-0.4	215/296/270	55	306	2	18	27%	9%	65	-1.2	232/319/263	31	312	0	30	23%	9%	71	-0.4
✕Nelson Rada 2023 · A	17	50→57	38→30	57→60	47	234/316/329	94	295	4	23	20%	7%	86	+0.3	232/313/289	57	320	2	31	25%	9%	76	-0.4	235/317/282	47	328	2	36	26%	9%	73	-0.6
✕Angel Genao 2022 · A	18	45→55	37→45	59→50	55	210/300/285	75	272	4	16	22%	11%	70	-0.8	230/288/322	92	306	6	11	25%	7%	74	-0.6	262/318/385	123	318	10	13	20%	7%	97	+0.9
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	52→62	37→40	56→60	50	245/307/319	74	309	3	18	21%	8%	80	-0.2	250/296/311	61	297	1	19	15%	6%	73	-0.6	302/361/382	79	347	4	36	13%	8%	110	+1.8
✕Carlos Sanchez 2023 · A	18	54→52	38→40	51→50	55	249/339/328	79	329	6	15	24%	11%	95	+0.9	210/307/287	77	354	4	12	36%	12%	74	-0.6	211/298/307	96	339	8	14	36%	11%	71	-0.6
✕Luis Durango 2022 · A	19	49	38→30	54→65	43	230/293/302	72	309	5	25	26%	6%	72	-0.7	209/284/263	54	281	2	28	24%	7%	59	-1.6	251/307/296	45	331	0	54	22%	4%	70	-0.3
●J.P. Crawford 2014 · A	19	50→58	37→45	50	49	234/297/309	75	303	3	13	23%	8%	74	-0.6	243/310/336	93	291	7	13	18%	9%	85	+0.2	261/353/385	124	305	11	2	17%	11%	110	+2.2
✕Adrian Cardenas 2007 · A	19	47→57	39→40	54→50	43	225/276/311	86	292	5	14	24%	6%	66	-1.1	253/298/346	93	309	6	11	19%	6%	82	+0.0	272/321/361	89	314	4	8	14%	6%	93	+0.7
●Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	51	43→50	50→55	51	244/315/357	114	300	9	14	21%	9%	92	+0.7	228/318/325	97	308	8	17	26%	11%	86	+0.3	228/320/369	141	283	16	24	24%	11%	94	+0.8
✕Hendry Mendez 2022 · A	18	49→56	39→45	51→45	51	232/296/328	96	272	5	7	16%	8%	78	-0.3	222/288/298	76	282	5	5	21%	8%	68	-1.0	258/330/364	106	310	10	6	19%	9%	97	+0.8
✕Leo Rivas 2016 · A	18	44→54	37→40	52→65	44	204/291/284	80	291	3	16	28%	8%	68	-1.0	208/298/282	74	292	3	17	27%	10%	69	-0.9	241/356/333	92	321	9	44	24%	14%	102	+1.0
●Moisés Ballesteros 2022 · A	18	45→55	40→50	50→40	52	216/294/311	95	269	7	8	22%	9%	74	-0.5	225/287/355	130	281	15	4	24%	8%	81	-0.1	255/314/382	127	304	14	3	20%	7%	96	+0.9
✕Marcus Lemon 2007 · A	19	49→53	37→40	55→45	52	227/294/304	76	279	3	16	19%	8%	72	-0.7	235/294/322	87	300	4	9	22%	7%	76	-0.4	240/296/326	86	300	4	8	20%	6%	74	-0.5
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	50→60	38→40	51→50	50	237/313/315	78	287	5	13	18%	8%	82	-0.0	227/281/295	68	274	3	9	17%	6%	65	-1.2	245/328/327	82	296	5	2	17%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Marco Vargas 2023 · A	18	47	38→40	50→60	51	221/294/308	87	285	4	13	23%	9%	73	-0.6	208/298/278	70	288	3	18	26%	11%	68	-1.0	213/291/276	63	314	3	36	30%	10%	62	-0.7
✕Alexi Amarista 2008 · A	19	51→60	41→45	51→55	47	246/294/352	105	276	8	13	14%	6%	82	+0.0	260/308/358	98	300	5	18	14%	6%	88	+0.5	271/316/372	101	311	4	21	14%	5%	92	+0.6
✕Emmanuel Avila 2007 · A	18	47→57	36→45	50→45	51	217/297/292	76	290	2	9	24%	10%	71	-0.8	206/254/266	60	262	3	6	21%	5%	47	-2.5	278/317/371	94	319	8	6	15%	4%	95	+0.7
✕Jaison Chourio 2023 · A	18	47→51	38→40	54→55	58	220/315/307	86	277	4	15	20%	12%	81	-0.1	224/315/307	83	317	4	21	27%	12%	81	-0.1	223/313/312	89	304	7	28	26%	11%	80	-0.1
✕Cristofer Torin 2023 · A	18	50	36→40	53→50	57	230/320/300	70	279	2	19	17%	11%	82	-0.0	219/297/293	74	273	5	14	20%	9%	71	-0.8	230/298/322	93	274	8	10	18%	8%	75	-0.4
✕Luis Santana 2018 · A	19	52	39→45	54→50	50	243/311/343	100	274	5	11	13%	7%	87	+0.4	246/316/336	90	288	6	9	16%	7%	88	+0.4	234/303/348	114	293	12	10	23%	6%	83	+0.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps