Miguel Welch

SS DSL Red Sox Blue

Age 19 L/R 5'11" / 158 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#601ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Red Sox R…	168	.302/.419/.446	1	16	59	—	.203/.293/.297
2026	18	ROKDSL Red Sox B…	219	.292/.419/.404	3	33	56	—	.189/.290/.242
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBBOS	329	.226/.299/.313	3	9	75	0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBBOS	57	.236/.310/.336	1	2	80	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBBOS	134	.239/.313/.347	2	4	84	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed97

Whiff%96

Z-Con%95

K%93

wOBA70

Chase%70

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsMarcus Lemon (age 19) · Luis Durango (age 19) · Kendall George (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 117 proj PA

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.224 / .296 / .311

PA117

HR1

K%22

BB%9

ISO87

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$31M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2036	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$5M	+0.3	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	139	42	13	2	1	26	20	2	16	5	302	419	446	865	144	345	12	15	388	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	219	178	52	5	3	3	39	25	0	33	6	292	419	404	824	112	325	11	18	374	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	148	30	9	1	1	17	25	2	16	5	203	293	297	591	95	228	15	10	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	219	190	36	3	2	1	27	30	0	33	6	189	290	242	532	53	216	14	12	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	148	30	9	1	1	17	25	2	16	5	203	293	297	591	95	236	15	10	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	139	42	13	2	1	26	20	2	16	5	302	419	446	865	144	345	12	15	388	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	219	190	36	3	2	1	27	30	0	33	6	189	290	242	532	53	219	14	12	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	219	178	52	5	3	3	39	25	0	33	6	292	419	404	824	112	325	11	18	374	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	147	30	9	1	1	17	25	2	16	5	204	293	299	593	95	228	15	10	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	219	190	36	3	2	1	27	30	0	33	6	189	290	242	532	53	216	14	12	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	147	30	9	1	1	17	25	2	16	5	204	293	299	593	95	228	15	10	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	219	190	36	3	2	1	27	30	0	33	6	189	290	242	532	53	216	14	12	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	329	296	68	12	3	3	28	73	2	9	1	226	299	313	612	87	287	22	9	279	75	-10	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	BOS	34%	165	149	34	6	1	2	14	36	1	4	1	230	304	327	631	97	289	22	8	286	80	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	BOS	48%	276	247	58	10	2	4	24	60	3	7	1	233	308	339	646	106	290	22	9	293	84	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2030	22	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	381	341	80	14	3	6	33	83	4	10	2	236	310	348	658	112	291	22	9	297	87	-6	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.8
2031	23	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	447	401	96	17	4	8	39	97	4	11	2	238	312	355	667	117	292	22	9	301	90	-6	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.1
2032	24	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	489	438	105	18	4	9	43	106	5	12	2	239	314	360	674	121	293	22	9	303	91	-5	+2	+0	+5	+11	1.3
2033	25	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	515	460	110	19	4	10	45	111	5	13	2	240	314	362	676	122	293	22	9	304	92	-5	+2	+0	+6	+11	1.4
2034	26	MLB MLE	BOS	56%	527	471	113	20	4	10	46	114	5	13	3	240	314	362	676	122	293	22	9	304	92	-5	+1	+0	+6	+11	1.4
2035	27	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	530	473	113	20	4	10	47	115	5	13	3	239	313	359	673	121	293	22	9	303	91	-6	+1	+0	+6	+11	1.3
2036	28	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	526	470	111	19	4	9	46	116	5	12	2	237	311	355	666	118	292	22	9	300	89	-7	+2	-1	+6	+11	1.1
2037	29	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	515	461	109	19	4	9	45	115	4	11	2	235	309	349	658	114	291	22	9	297	87	-8	+1	-1	+6	+11	0.9
2038	30	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	502	450	105	18	4	8	43	113	4	10	2	232	305	342	647	110	289	23	9	292	84	-10	+1	-2	+5	+11	0.6
2039	31	MLB MLE	BOS	60%	486	437	99	17	3	7	42	112	4	8	3	228	301	332	633	104	287	23	9	287	80	-12	+0	-3	+5	+11	0.2
2040	32	MLB MLE	BOS	61%	465	420	93	16	3	6	39	109	3	7	3	223	295	321	615	98	284	23	8	279	75	-14	+0	-4	+5	+10	-0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	BOS	34%	57	52	12	2	0	1	5	13	0	2	0	236	310	336	645	99	298	23	9	292	80	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	BOS	48%	134	120	28	5	1	2	12	29	1	4	1	239	313	347	660	108	299	22	9	298	84	-3	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	207	185	46	9	2	3	18	45	2	5	1	242	316	356	672	114	300	22	9	303	87	-3	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.4
2031	23	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	253	227	56	11	2	4	22	55	2	6	1	244	318	363	681	119	301	22	9	306	90	-3	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.6
2032	24	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	276	247	61	12	2	5	24	60	3	7	1	246	319	369	688	123	302	22	9	309	91	-3	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.7
2033	25	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	291	260	63	12	2	5	26	63	3	7	1	246	320	370	690	124	302	22	9	310	92	-3	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.8
2034	26	MLB CTX	BOS	56%	298	267	64	12	2	5	26	64	3	7	1	246	320	370	690	124	302	21	9	310	92	-3	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.8
2035	27	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	294	263	64	12	2	5	26	64	3	7	1	245	319	368	687	123	302	22	9	308	91	-3	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.8
2036	28	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	289	259	63	12	2	5	25	64	3	6	1	243	317	363	680	120	301	22	9	306	89	-4	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.6
2037	29	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	275	247	60	11	2	5	24	61	2	6	1	241	314	357	672	117	300	22	9	302	87	-4	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.5
2038	30	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	287	258	61	12	2	4	25	65	2	6	1	238	311	350	661	112	298	23	9	298	84	-5	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2039	31	MLB CTX	BOS	60%	290	261	60	11	2	4	25	67	2	5	2	234	306	341	647	107	296	23	9	292	80	-7	+0	-2	+3	+6	0.1
2040	32	MLB CTX	BOS	61%	285	257	59	11	2	4	24	67	2	4	2	229	300	329	629	100	292	24	8	285	75	-8	+0	-2	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3236	2903	697	132	23	52	282	717	28	72	14	240	313	355	669	115	301	22	9	302	85	-51	+9	-6	+35	+70	5.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	140	27	5	10	57	144	6	14	3	240	314	355	669	115	302	22	9	302	85	-10	+2	-1	+7	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	6328	5661	1316	229	48	101	560	1368	55	183	39	232	308	343	651	111	288	22	9	294	85	-94	+16	-10	+64	+129	10.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	135	24	5	10	58	141	6	19	4	232	309	343	651	110	289	22	9	294	85	-10	+2	-1	+7	+14	1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Red Sox Blue · 219 PAwOBA .367 → .251 (−115)K% 11.4% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.42%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	13.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.81%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.995	12.40%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.80%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.014	×0.995	18.38%
Doubles /BIP	3.27%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.014	×0.995	1.98%
Triples /BIP	1.96%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.014	×0.995	1.19%
Home runs /BIP	1.96%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.92%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .367 → .251; ISO .112 → .064; BABIP .325 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Red Sox Red · 168 PAwOBA .381 → .256 (−125)K% 11.9% → 14.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.90%	÷0.974	×1.220	—	—	14.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.48%	÷1.095	×0.700	—	×1.008	9.97%
HBP% /PA	1.19%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.84%
Singles /BIP	21.85%	÷1.017	×0.680	×1.030	×1.008	15.15%
Doubles /BIP	10.92%	÷0.998	×0.600	×1.030	×1.008	6.81%
Triples /BIP	1.68%	÷1.150	×0.600	×1.030	×1.008	0.91%
Home runs /BIP	0.84%	÷0.880	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.45%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 130, K 95, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .381 → .256; ISO .144 → .090; BABIP .345 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Spike Owen'83-'95 * career totals — 13 seasons, 5,615 PA	8.5	5,615	46	82	242*	322*	356*	+55	+30	15.6	15.3
/162	664	5	10	+6.5	+3.6	1.8	pk7: 15
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#4Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#5Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.0	3,351	55	75	236	306	349	+36	+24	8.3	7.1
/162	664	11	15	+7.1	+4.8	1.6	pk7: 6
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Miguel Welch (OGILVIE)	19	55	30	60	60	224/296/311	86	287	1	3	22%	9%	75	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Marcus Lemon 2007 · A	19	49→55	37→40	55→45	52	229/297/306	77	281	3	16	19%	9%	73	-0.6	243/304/333	90	311	4	9	22%	7%	82	-0.0	249/308/338	89	311	4	8	20%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Luis Durango 2022 · A	19	50	38→30	54→70	43	233/296/306	73	313	5	25	26%	6%	74	-0.6	213/291/269	56	284	2	28	24%	7%	63	-1.3	249/303/294	44	325	0	54	21%	4%	68	-0.3
✕Kendall George 2024 · A	19	55→60	36→30	52→65	48	253/320/322	69	342	3	22	25%	8%	85	+0.2	249/328/307	58	343	2	42	25%	10%	85	+0.2	262/344/315	53	355	2	56	24%	11%	90	+0.4
✕Cristofer Torin 2024 · A	19	46→55	38→40	54→50	54	219/299/292	73	262	5	19	18%	9%	72	-0.7	235/310/323	88	290	7	11	20%	9%	82	+0.0	243/315/341	98	290	8	10	18%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Jose Escobar 2024 · A	19	46→56	39→40	55→45	42	220/276/306	85	277	6	14	22%	5%	65	-1.2	227/297/326	99	296	8	9	24%	7%	78	-0.3	236/304/334	98	303	8	8	23%	7%	80	-0.1
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	51→54	39→40	55→50	58	237/332/330	93	293	6	14	20%	12%	93	+0.8	243/319/335	92	311	8	14	23%	8%	88	+0.5	244/321/332	88	312	8	14	22%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Nelson Rada 2023 · A	17	47→57	37→30	56→60	50	219/307/303	84	268	3	23	18%	8%	78	-0.3	238/321/298	60	329	2	31	25%	9%	81	-0.1	255/332/312	57	351	2	38	25%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Kevyn Castillo 2024 · A	19	49→46	38→50	54→55	53	227/310/317	91	295	4	19	23%	10%	81	-0.1	232/306/336	104	327	8	14	29%	9%	84	+0.1	232/311/351	119	315	11	14	28%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Hak-Ju Lee 2011 · A	20	54→59	36→40	54→55	45	251/301/319	68	321	2	17	22%	6%	77	-0.3	254/308/346	92	329	4	24	22%	7%	86	+0.3	240/297/328	88	314	4	25	23%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Carlos Sanchez 2023 · A	18	50→54	37→40	51→50	59	233/335/302	69	298	4	15	21%	12%	88	+0.4	212/309/287	75	349	4	12	35%	12%	75	-0.5	225/310/326	101	351	8	14	35%	11%	79	-0.1
✕Jaison Chourio 2024 · A	19	49→55	36→40	55	55	224/319/299	75	316	2	18	27%	12%	80	-0.1	232/327/322	90	320	6	23	26%	12%	88	+0.5	235/331/328	92	319	6	27	25%	12%	90	+0.4
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	53→63	37→40	56→60	50	245/308/320	75	309	3	18	21%	8%	80	-0.2	257/303/319	62	306	1	19	15%	6%	77	-0.3	308/366/390	82	353	4	36	13%	8%	116	+2.2
✕Leo Rivas 2018 · A	20	47→56	37→40	56→65	55	217/314/292	75	284	3	19	23%	11%	78	-0.3	191/275/274	83	293	5	10	33%	10%	59	-1.7	244/357/336	92	322	8	44	24%	14%	103	+1.0
✕Dameury Pena 2024 · A	18	49→59	36→30	53→55	51	226/285/298	73	256	2	16	13%	7%	67	-1.1	228/286/308	80	252	6	15	12%	7%	70	-0.9	241/299/311	70	264	6	18	11%	6%	73	-0.4
✕Marco Vargas 2024 · A	19	45→46	37→40	50→60	57	208/302/289	81	267	4	13	22%	12%	72	-0.7	214/295/280	66	304	3	25	27%	10%	67	-1.1	220/295/283	63	320	3	36	29%	9%	65	-0.6
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	48→55	41→45	56→70	47	227/291/331	104	301	7	17	26%	8%	76	-0.4	226/279/325	99	296	7	16	25%	6%	70	-0.8	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Luis Lara 2024 · A	19	46→56	36→40	52→60	49	218/283/285	67	271	3	18	20%	7%	63	-1.3	235/308/311	76	297	4	28	21%	8%	79	-0.2	245/323/325	80	308	5	31	20%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Cole Miles 2007 · A	20	49→52	37→30	57→55	51	228/307/306	77	293	4	19	22%	9%	78	-0.3	236/285/296	60	294	3	15	19%	6%	65	-1.2	238/283/292	53	295	3	15	19%	5%	60	-1.1
✕Adrian Cardenas 2007 · A	19	47→57	39→45	54→50	43	226/277/312	86	293	6	14	24%	6%	67	-1.1	258/305/354	96	315	6	11	19%	6%	86	+0.3	281/332/373	92	325	5	8	14%	7%	100	+1.2
✕Hector Osorio 2024 · A	19	44	35→45	51→50	62	200/321/262	62	245	2	15	17%	13%	76	-0.4	216/319/308	92	262	8	12	19%	11%	84	+0.1	223/323/350	127	253	16	10	18%	10%	93	+0.4

Miguel Welch

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps