Miguel Welch — OGILVIE

Miguel WelchSS DSL Red Sox Blue

Age 18 L/R 5'11" / 158 lbs ROK H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION119 act + 79 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .315 / .350

PA79

HR1

K%20

BB%10

BABIP294

ISO112

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.7	$14M	+$13M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.8	$13M	+$13M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.8	$12M	+$12M
2035	Arb-1	$6M	+2.8	$11M	+$9M
2036	Arb-2	$9M	+2.7	$10M	+$7M
2037	Arb-3	$12M	+2.4	$8M	+$4M
Totals		$30M		$69M	+$58M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	151	34	10	1	1	14	30	2	16	5	225	299	325	624	99	273	18	8	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	139	42	13	2	1	26	20	2	16	5	302	419	446	865	144	345	12	15	388	155	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	BOS	—	119	102	24	2	1	1	16	14	0	19	4	235	339	304	643	69	261	12	13	294	83	-2	+2	+0	+1	+3	0.5
YTD	18	ROK	BOS	—	119	92	27	3	1	1	26	10	0	19	4	293	449	380	830	87	317	8	22	383	151	+7	+2	+0	+1	+3	1.4
ROS	18	ROK	BOS	0%	79	71	17	3	1	1	8	16	0	4	1	238	315	350	666	112	284	20	10	288	79	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
ROS	18	MLB	BOS	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		290	—	—	288	78	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	BOS	—	119	103	24	2	1	1	16	14	0	19	4	233	339	301	640	68	258	12	13	294	83	-2	+2	+0	+1	+3	0.5
TOT	18	ROK	BOS	—	198	173	41	5	2	2	24	30	0	23	5	237	329	323	652	87	274	15	12	292	81	-4	+3	+0	+2	+6	0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	BOS	34%	246	218	52	9	2	3	24	49	2	8	1	239	320	339	659	101	289	20	10	299	87	-4	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.7
2028	20	MLB	BOS	48%	372	329	80	14	3	6	36	74	4	11	2	243	325	359	684	116	291	20	10	306	92	-3	+1	+0	+4	+11	1.3
2029	21	MLB	BOS	54%	468	415	100	17	3	8	45	92	5	13	2	241	323	354	677	113	292	20	10	310	96	-2	+2	+0	+5	+13	1.8
2030	22	MLB	BOS	57%	534	471	116	20	4	10	52	105	6	14	3	246	329	369	698	123	293	20	10	313	98	-1	+2	+0	+6	+15	2.2
2031	23	MLB	BOS	58%	579	512	126	22	4	11	56	113	6	15	3	246	328	369	697	123	294	20	10	315	99	-0	+2	+0	+6	+16	2.5
2032	24	MLB	BOS	57%	608	537	133	23	4	12	59	118	7	15	3	248	330	372	702	125	295	19	10	317	101	+0	+2	+0	+7	+17	2.7
2033	25	MLB	BOS	57%	625	552	137	24	4	12	61	121	7	16	3	248	331	371	702	123	295	19	10	318	101	+1	+2	+0	+7	+18	2.8
2034	26	MLB	BOS	57%	633	559	139	24	4	13	62	123	7	16	3	249	331	376	707	127	295	19	10	318	101	+1	+2	+0	+7	+18	2.8
2035	27	MLB	BOS	55%	633	558	139	24	4	13	63	123	7	16	3	249	333	376	709	127	295	19	10	318	102	+1	+2	+0	+7	+18	2.8
2036	28	MLB	BOS	55%	628	553	137	24	4	12	63	123	7	15	3	248	332	371	703	123	294	20	10	317	101	+1	+2	-1	+7	+18	2.7
2037	29	MLB	BOS	53%	618	544	134	23	4	12	62	122	7	14	3	246	331	369	701	123	294	20	10	315	100	-0	+2	-1	+7	+18	2.4
2038	30	MLB	BOS	53%	608	535	130	22	4	11	61	122	7	14	3	243	328	361	689	118	293	20	10	313	98	-2	+2	-2	+7	+17	2.2
2039	31	MLB	BOS	57%	593	522	126	21	4	11	60	121	6	13	2	241	327	360	687	119	291	20	10	309	95	-4	+2	-3	+6	+17	1.9
2040	32	MLB	BOS	59%	575	506	121	20	4	10	58	119	6	12	2	239	325	354	678	115	288	21	10	304	91	-6	+2	-4	+6	+16	1.5
2041	33	MLB	BOS	61%	545	480	111	18	3	9	54	116	6	11	2	231	317	338	654	106	285	21	10	297	86	-9	+1	-4	+6	+15	1.0
2042	34	MLB	BOS	57%	498	441	98	15	3	7	49	109	5	9	2	222	307	317	625	95	280	22	10	289	79	-12	+1	-5	+5	+14	0.4
2043	35	MLB	BOS	52%	442	392	86	13	3	6	43	100	4	8	2	219	303	314	617	94	274	23	10	280	72	-14	+1	-6	+5	+13	-0.1
2044	36	MLB	BOS	43%	381	337	70	10	2	4	37	89	4	6	1	208	294	285	579	77	269	23	10	270	65	-15	+1	-6	+4	+11	-0.6
2027	19	MLB	BOS	34%	85	76	18	3	1	1	8	17	1	3	0	237	318	342	660	105	295	20	9	297	85	-1	+1	+0	+1	+2	0.3
2028	20	MLB	BOS	48%	180	159	39	7	1	3	17	36	2	5	1	245	326	358	684	113	297	20	9	302	90	-2	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.6
2029	21	MLB	BOS	54%	254	224	56	10	2	4	25	50	3	7	1	250	333	366	699	116	298	20	10	307	93	-2	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.9
2030	22	MLB	BOS	57%	302	267	67	12	2	6	29	59	3	8	1	251	331	378	709	127	299	20	10	310	95	-2	+1	+0	+3	+9	1.2
2031	23	MLB	BOS	58%	333	294	73	13	2	6	32	65	4	8	2	248	330	367	698	119	300	20	10	312	97	-1	+1	+0	+4	+9	1.3
2032	24	MLB	BOS	57%	347	306	77	14	2	7	34	68	4	9	2	252	334	379	713	127	301	20	10	313	98	-1	+1	+0	+4	+10	1.4
2033	25	MLB	BOS	57%	354	312	79	14	2	7	35	69	4	9	2	253	336	378	714	125	301	19	10	314	98	-1	+1	+0	+4	+10	1.4
2034	26	MLB	BOS	57%	358	316	79	14	2	7	35	69	4	9	2	250	332	373	706	123	301	19	10	314	98	-1	+1	+0	+4	+10	1.5
2035	27	MLB	BOS	55%	351	309	78	14	2	7	35	68	4	9	2	252	336	379	715	126	301	19	10	314	99	-1	+1	+0	+4	+10	1.4
2036	28	MLB	BOS	55%	345	303	77	14	2	7	35	68	4	8	2	254	339	383	722	129	300	20	10	313	98	-1	+1	-0	+4	+10	1.3
2037	29	MLB	BOS	53%	330	290	72	13	2	6	33	65	4	8	1	248	333	369	702	121	300	20	10	312	97	-1	+1	-1	+4	+9	1.2
2038	30	MLB	BOS	53%	320	282	70	12	2	6	32	64	3	7	1	248	331	369	700	121	299	20	10	309	95	-2	+1	-1	+3	+9	1.1
2039	31	MLB	BOS	57%	335	294	73	13	2	6	34	68	4	7	1	248	334	367	702	119	297	20	10	305	92	-3	+1	-2	+4	+9	1.0
2040	32	MLB	BOS	59%	340	299	73	13	2	6	34	71	4	7	1	244	329	361	691	117	294	21	10	300	88	-5	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.8
2041	33	MLB	BOS	61%	333	294	69	12	2	5	33	71	3	7	1	235	318	340	658	105	291	21	10	294	83	-6	+1	-3	+4	+9	0.5
2042	34	MLB	BOS	57%	282	249	57	9	2	4	28	62	3	5	1	229	314	329	644	100	285	22	10	286	77	-7	+1	-3	+3	+8	0.1
2043	35	MLB	BOS	52%	230	203	45	7	1	3	23	52	2	4	1	222	307	310	617	89	280	23	10	276	70	-8	+0	-3	+2	+7	-0.1
2044	36	MLB	BOS	43%	164	145	32	5	1	2	16	38	2	3	1	221	307	310	617	90	274	23	10	267	62	-7	+0	-3	+2	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5243	4623	1134	199	32	93	518	1060	58	123	23	245	329	363	692	117	298	20	10	305	91	-51	+15	-17	+56	+149	15.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	141	25	4	12	64	131	7	15	3	246	329	366	696	120	297	20	10	305	91	-6	+2	-2	+7	+18	1.9
Career	—			—	9833	8683	2086	356	65	172	967	1985	105	246	49	240	324	356	679	115	291	20	10	307	93	-76	+30	-31	+105	+279	31.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	574	138	24	4	11	64	131	7	16	3	240	324	354	678	113	292	20	10	307	93	-5	+2	-2	+7	+18	2.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	168	139	42	13	2	1	26	20	2	16	5	302	419	446	865	144	345	12	15	388	155	+10	+1	—	—	+5	1.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Erick Aybarlast yr '17 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,588 PA	11	5,588	58	154	271	314	372	+58	+49	22.0	21.3
	/162	664	7	18	271	314	372	+6.9	+5.8	2.6	pk7: 21
#2Kolten Wonglast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,283 PA	11	4,283	86	120	256	330	390	+15	+21	18.4	17.8
	/162	664	13	19	256	330	390	+2.4	+3.2	2.8	pk7: 17
#3Zack Cozartlast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,350 PA	8	3,350	85	21	246	300	398	+33	+38	14.2	14.8
	/162	664	17	4	246	300	398	+6.6	+7.6	2.8	pk7: 15
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	11	5,395	95	126	242	321	358	+53	+33	17.9	14.2
	/162	664	12	16	242	321	358	+6.5	+4.1	2.2	pk7: 11
#4Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#5Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#6Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Miguel Welch (OGILVIE)	18	55	30	60	60	237/329/323	87	274	2	23	15%	12%	81	+0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alvaro Montero 2018 · A	18	48	35→30	52→60	54	219/315/281	62	294	3	16	24%	11%	72	-0.2	215/296/270	55	306	2	18	27%	9%	61	-1.0	232/319/263	31	312	0	30	23%	9%	67	-0.2
✕Carlos Sanchez 2023 · A	18	53	39→40	51→50	54	247/334/327	80	325	6	15	24%	11%	92	+1.2	210/306/286	76	353	4	12	36%	12%	69	-0.4	219/305/313	93	356	7	15	36%	11%	72	-0.2
✕Hendry Mendez 2022 · A	18	49→53	39→45	51→45	51	232/297/329	97	272	5	7	16%	8%	76	+0.0	218/285/291	73	279	5	5	22%	8%	61	-1.0	257/332/370	113	311	11	7	20%	9%	99	+1.0
●Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	51→42	43→45	51→55	52	244/320/360	116	300	9	14	21%	9%	94	+1.3	228/320/325	97	311	8	17	26%	11%	85	+0.7	226/320/360	134	289	14	26	25%	12%	91	+0.8
✕Leo Rivas 2016 · A	18	44→54	37→40	52→65	44	204/291/284	80	291	3	16	28%	8%	63	-0.8	208/298/281	73	293	3	17	27%	10%	65	-0.7	239/352/335	95	318	9	44	24%	14%	101	+1.2
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	48→58	41→45	56→70	47	227/290/330	103	300	7	17	26%	8%	73	-0.1	221/273/317	96	291	7	16	25%	6%	62	-0.9	266/338/377	110	363	9	50	27%	9%	101	+1.1
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	52→62	37→40	56→60	50	245/307/319	74	309	3	18	21%	8%	77	+0.1	246/292/306	60	294	1	19	16%	6%	66	-0.6	304/363/386	81	348	4	36	13%	8%	114	+2.3
●Angel Genao 2022 · A	18	45→55	37→50	58→50	55	210/300/285	75	268	4	16	22%	11%	66	-0.6	232/290/328	96	308	7	11	25%	7%	72	-0.2	264/318/398	134	323	11	13	21%	7%	100	+1.2
●Moisés Ballesteros 2022 · A	18	45→55	41→50	50→40	52	218/297/315	97	275	8	8	23%	10%	73	-0.1	225/288/361	136	282	16	4	25%	8%	81	+0.4	266/326/405	139	311	16	3	19%	8%	106	+1.6
✕Nelson Rada 2023 · A	17	51→55	40→30	57→60	47	240/319/343	104	302	5	23	21%	7%	89	+1.0	226/309/285	59	316	2	31	26%	9%	70	-0.3	230/310/278	48	322	2	38	26%	9%	66	-0.5
✕Jaison Chourio 2023 · A	18	48→49	38→40	54→55	58	220/315/308	87	276	3	15	20%	12%	79	+0.3	223/313/311	88	314	5	21	27%	11%	79	+0.3	222/315/321	99	301	8	23	26%	12%	81	+0.2
●J.P. Crawford 2014 · A	19	50→58	37→45	50	49	234/297/309	75	304	3	13	23%	8%	70	-0.3	246/314/341	95	294	8	13	18%	9%	86	+0.8	264/356/391	126	308	11	2	17%	11%	114	+2.9
✕Adrian Cardenas 2007 · A	19	47→57	39→45	54→50	43	225/276/311	86	292	5	14	24%	6%	62	-0.9	252/298/346	94	308	6	11	19%	6%	80	+0.4	274/322/369	95	316	5	8	14%	6%	95	+1.2
✕Marcus Lemon 2007 · A	19	49→53	37→40	55→45	52	227/294/304	76	279	3	16	19%	8%	68	-0.5	235/294/322	87	301	4	9	22%	7%	72	-0.2	239/296/325	86	300	4	8	20%	6%	70	-0.3
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	45→53	42→50	52→55	54	215/320/330	115	290	9	18	26%	12%	88	+0.9	235/321/384	149	306	13	20	25%	10%	101	+1.8	236/324/395	159	305	15	21	26%	10%	102	+1.2
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	50→60	38→40	51→50	50	237/313/315	78	287	5	13	18%	8%	79	+0.3	227/281/295	68	275	3	9	18%	6%	60	-1.0	246/313/343	97	286	7	1	15%	8%	81	+0.2
✕Jose Reyes 2017 · A	18	50	36→45	51→55	44	235/281/303	67	296	3	10	21%	5%	62	-0.9	221/269/309	88	263	5	15	17%	6%	58	-1.2	219/269/317	97	252	6	20	15%	6%	56	-0.5
✕Jorge Ruiz 2022 · A	18	46→48	37→40	52→50	47	216/288/296	80	265	4	17	19%	6%	65	-0.7	230/282/305	75	285	4	12	20%	5%	63	-0.8	223/272/294	70	283	4	13	21%	5%	53	-0.9
✕Alexi Amarista 2008 · A	19	51→60	41→45	51→55	47	246/294/352	105	276	8	13	14%	6%	80	+0.4	260/308/359	99	300	5	18	14%	6%	87	+0.8	271/315/373	103	310	5	21	14%	5%	91	+0.8
✕Marco Vargas 2023 · A	18	47→46	38→40	50→55	52	219/294/304	85	285	4	13	23%	10%	68	-0.5	206/296/277	71	288	3	18	26%	11%	63	-0.8	200/290/257	57	280	2	27	26%	11%	54	-0.7