Miguel Welch — OGILVIE

Miguel WelchSS DSL Red Sox Red

Age 18 L/R 5'11" / 158 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 4.6 · 2035

wRC+70

AVG/OBP/SLG.213 / .288 / .317

PA140

HR2

K%28

BB%9

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

55→55

PWR

30→30

SPD

60→60

EYE

60→60

trajectory · 10 yrs

4.5peak

2034

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+4.1	$39M	+$38M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+4.4	$43M	+$42M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+4.5	$46M	+$45M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$9M	+4.6	$48M	+$39M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$15M	+4.4	$47M	+$33M
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$21M	+4.2	$47M	+$26M
Totals		$48M		$270M	+$222M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	168	151	34	10	1	1	14	30	2	16	5	.225	.299	.325	.624	.099	.273	18	8	.273	67	-6	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	MLB	—	140	126	27	5	1	2	12	40	1	3	1	.214	.288	.317	.605	.103	.293	29	9	.277	70	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	19	MLB 11%	—	227	201	48	8	2	5	21	60	3	6	1	.239	.320	.373	.693	.134	.309	26	9	.305	91	-2	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.8
2028	20	MLB 28%	—	358	315	76	13	2	8	35	92	5	10	2	.241	.327	.371	.698	.130	.316	26	10	.318	101	+0	+1	+0	+4	+10	1.6
2029	21	MLB 48%	—	458	402	100	17	3	11	47	115	6	13	3	.249	.336	.388	.724	.139	.317	25	10	.326	108	+4	+1	+0	+5	+13	2.4
2030	22	MLB 65%	—	527	459	116	20	3	14	56	128	7	14	3	.253	.343	.401	.744	.148	.318	24	11	.333	113	+8	+2	+0	+6	+15	3.1
2031	23	MLB 86%	—	574	498	128	21	4	16	63	136	8	15	3	.257	.350	.412	.761	.155	.318	24	11	.339	118	+12	+2	+0	+6	+16	3.7
2032	24	MLB	—	605	523	135	23	4	17	68	141	9	16	3	.258	.353	.415	.768	.157	.319	23	11	.344	121	+15	+2	+0	+6	+17	4.1
2033	25	MLB	—	623	538	139	23	4	18	71	145	9	16	3	.258	.354	.416	.771	.158	.320	23	11	.347	124	+17	+2	+0	+7	+18	4.4
2034	26	MLB	—	631	544	142	24	4	19	73	146	9	16	3	.261	.358	.425	.782	.164	.320	23	12	.349	125	+18	+2	+0	+7	+18	4.5
2035	27	MLB	—	632	544	141	23	4	19	74	147	9	16	3	.259	.357	.421	.778	.162	.321	23	12	.349	125	+18	+2	+0	+7	+18	4.6
2036	28	MLB	—	627	539	140	23	4	19	74	147	9	15	3	.260	.359	.423	.782	.163	.320	23	12	.348	124	+17	+2	-1	+7	+18	4.4
2037	29	MLB	—	618	531	137	23	4	18	73	147	9	14	2	.258	.357	.418	.775	.160	.320	24	12	.346	123	+16	+2	-1	+7	+18	4.2
2038	30	MLB	—	607	522	133	22	4	17	72	146	8	14	2	.255	.354	.410	.764	.155	.319	24	12	.343	121	+14	+2	-2	+7	+17	3.8
2039	31	MLB	—	593	510	129	21	4	16	70	145	8	12	1	.253	.352	.404	.756	.151	.318	24	12	.339	118	+12	+2	-3	+6	+17	3.5
2040	32	MLB	—	575	494	122	20	3	15	68	144	8	12	0	.247	.347	.391	.738	.144	.317	25	12	.335	114	+9	+2	-4	+6	+16	3.1
2041	33	MLB	—	545	469	114	18	3	14	64	140	7	11	0	.243	.343	.384	.726	.141	.316	26	12	.329	110	+6	+2	-4	+6	+15	2.6
2042	34	MLB	—	498	431	103	16	3	12	58	132	6	10	0	.239	.337	.374	.711	.135	.315	27	12	.323	105	+3	+2	-5	+5	+14	2.0
2043	35	MLB	—	442	382	89	14	2	10	51	122	6	10	0	.233	.333	.359	.691	.126	.314	28	12	.316	100	-0	+2	-6	+5	+13	1.4
2044	36	MLB	—	381	329	75	11	2	8	44	109	5	8	0	.228	.328	.347	.675	.119	.312	29	12	.307	93	-3	+2	-6	+4	+11	0.7
2045	37	MLB	—	316	273	61	9	2	6	36	94	4	7	0	.223	.323	.337	.660	.114	.309	30	11	.298	86	-5	+1	-7	+3	+9	0.2
2046	38	MLB	—	246	214	46	7	1	4	27	75	3	5	0	.215	.311	.313	.625	.098	.304	30	11	.288	78	-6	+1	-8	+3	+7	-0.3
2047	39	MLB	—	172	149	30	4	1	2	19	53	2	4	0	.201	.300	.282	.582	.081	.299	31	11	.277	70	-6	+1	-8	+2	+5	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			10563	9144	2265	375	65	271	1190	2634	143	263	38	.248	.343	.392	.735	.144	.317	25	11	.331	111	+136	+37	-55	+113	+299	54.2
/ 162G	—			650	563	140	23	4	17	73	162	9	16	2	.249	.344	.394	.739	.146	.318	25	11	.331	111	+8	+2	-3	+7	+18	3.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	168	139	42	13	2	1	26	20	2	16	5	.302	.419	.446	.865	.144	.345	12	15	.388	155	+10	+1	—	—	+5	1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Miguel Welch (OGILVIE)	18	55	30	60	60	.213/.288/.317	.105	.293	2	3	28%	9%	70	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●J.P. Crawford 2014 · A	19	49→58	37→45	50	48	.231/.293/.308	.076	.300	4	13	23%	8%	69	-0.4	.243/.308/.337	.094	.291	8	13	18%	8%	82	+0.5	.263/.355/.386	.123	.307	11	2	17%	11%	113	+2.8
✕Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	50→44	42→40	50→55	51	.242/.315/.355	.113	.299	9	14	21%	9%	90	+1.0	.231/.320/.328	.097	.309	8	16	25%	11%	86	+0.8	.218/.319/.316	.098	.293	9	21	26%	12%	80	+0.2
●Moisés Ballesteros 2022 · A	18	45→55	40→50	50→40	51	.218/.295/.314	.096	.275	8	8	22%	9%	72	-0.2	.225/.288/.359	.134	.280	15	4	24%	8%	80	+0.4	.259/.317/.396	.137	.305	16	3	20%	7%	100	+1.5
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	52→62	37→40	55→60	49	.241/.304/.317	.076	.306	3	17	21%	8%	75	-0.0	.250/.296/.310	.060	.296	1	19	15%	6%	69	-0.4	.299/.358/.381	.081	.343	4	36	13%	8%	110	+2.1
✕Adrian Cardenas 2007 · A	19	47→57	39→40	54→50	43	.224/.276/.310	.086	.292	6	13	24%	6%	62	-0.9	.246/.290/.340	.094	.299	7	12	19%	6%	75	-0.0	.269/.318/.358	.090	.312	5	8	15%	6%	90	+0.9
✕Alvaro Montero 2018 · A	18	48	36→30	52→60	53	.219/.312/.284	.065	.295	3	15	24%	11%	72	-0.2	.217/.299/.270	.053	.305	2	19	27%	9%	63	-0.9	.232/.319/.263	.031	.312	0	30	23%	9%	67	-0.2
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	47→56	41→45	56→70	47	.226/.290/.328	.102	.300	7	17	26%	8%	72	-0.2	.218/.270/.316	.098	.284	7	16	24%	6%	60	-1.0	.260/.332/.371	.111	.354	9	50	27%	9%	98	+1.0
✕Carlos Sanchez 2023 · A	18	53→52	38→45	51→50	54	.246/.334/.327	.081	.326	6	14	24%	11%	92	+1.2	.211/.307/.286	.075	.348	4	12	35%	12%	70	-0.3	.200/.298/.277	.076	.341	4	13	38%	12%	61	-0.5
●Leo Rivas 2016 · A	18	45→54	37→40	51→65	44	.205/.292/.286	.080	.293	3	15	28%	7%	64	-0.8	.210/.299/.284	.074	.292	3	18	26%	10%	66	-0.6	.238/.354/.331	.093	.320	9	44	25%	14%	100	+1.2
●Justin Crawford 2023 · A	19	46→56	37→45	51→60	41	.213/.274/.288	.076	.314	5	17	32%	7%	56	-1.3	.272/.317/.374	.102	.360	6	33	25%	6%	95	+1.4	.294/.339/.402	.108	.380	7	41	23%	6%	107	+1.7
●Alex Verdugo 2015 · A	19	52→58	40→50	56→45	48	.249/.301/.351	.102	.285	6	11	15%	6%	83	+0.6	.253/.290/.359	.106	.289	9	7	16%	5%	80	+0.4	.289/.349/.442	.153	.326	15	7	16%	8%	121	+2.1
●Brice Turang 2019 · A	19	46→56	36→45	53→60	48	.216/.286/.284	.068	.296	4	14	27%	9%	59	-1.1	.213/.287/.280	.067	.286	4	16	24%	9%	59	-1.1	.273/.346/.393	.120	.333	12	35	20%	10%	107	+1.7
●Emmanuel Avila 2007 · A	18	47→57	37→45	50→45	50	.217/.296/.294	.077	.291	3	9	25%	9%	67	-0.5	.206/.256/.267	.061	.263	3	7	21%	5%	42	-2.3	.280/.320/.371	.091	.302	10	4	11%	4%	94	+1.0
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	50→59	41→50	50	56	.236/.325/.340	.104	.299	8	10	22%	12%	91	+1.1	.251/.334/.388	.137	.334	12	14	26%	11%	107	+2.2	.247/.330/.386	.139	.319	14	15	25%	10%	103	+1.9
●Luis Arraez 2015 · A	18	52→62	36→45	48→45	51	.242/.302/.307	.066	.282	3	13	15%	7%	72	-0.2	.264/.305/.332	.068	.298	2	7	11%	5%	79	+0.3	.321/.366/.416	.094	.333	7	5	6%	6%	120	+3.3
★Geraldo Perdomo 2019 · A	19	46→56	36→45	53→55	55	.212/.301/.276	.064	.273	3	16	22%	11%	65	-0.7	.218/.304/.295	.077	.280	4	15	21%	9%	71	-0.3	.256/.355/.382	.126	.288	11	19	14%	12%	111	+2.2
●Angel Genao 2022 · A	18	45→55	37→45	57→50	55	.211/.299/.288	.077	.267	4	15	21%	11%	67	-0.5	.229/.289/.320	.091	.303	6	11	25%	7%	70	-0.3	.255/.302/.371	.117	.316	8	12	21%	6%	85	+0.5
✕Termarr Johnson 2023 · A	19	46→50	41→45	52→50	47	.214/.293/.319	.105	.323	8	13	34%	10%	72	-0.2	.209/.310/.338	.129	.295	15	12	31%	12%	85	+0.7	.208/.302/.326	.118	.280	14	14	29%	11%	76	+0.1
✕Hendry Mendez 2022 · A	18	49→54	39→40	50→45	51	.231/.298/.328	.096	.272	5	7	17%	8%	76	+0.0	.222/.288/.298	.076	.280	5	5	21%	8%	64	-0.8	.244/.311/.341	.098	.292	8	5	19%	8%	82	+0.3
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	46→52	43→50	52→55	54	.219/.321/.336	.117	.295	9	17	27%	11%	89	+1.0	.230/.314/.374	.144	.298	13	20	25%	10%	95	+1.4	.229/.316/.381	.152	.296	15	21	26%	10%	95	+0.9

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)