Gerlyn Payano

OF ACL Brewers

Age 19 L/L 6'1" / 192 lbs ROK HR +10%K +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1985ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Brewers B…	20	.176/.300/.176	0	2	-4	—	.111/.200/.111
2026	18	ROKMIL	155	.222/.405/.393	4	12	64	—	.155/.288/.264
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBMIL	265	.208/.288/.309	4	8	71	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBMIL	46	.210/.292/.319	1	2	76	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBMIL	113	.214/.296/.330	2	4	80	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed93

BB%55

Chase%52

Z-Con%42

ISO37

Whiff%36

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 1.0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 91%

CompsCarlos Jimenez (age 20) · Estevan Florial (age 19) · Forrest Wall (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 80 proj PA

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .286 / .306

PA80

HR1

K%29

BB%9

ISO101

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2038	Arb-3	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Brewers Blue	—	20	17	3	0	0	0	2	6	1	2	0	176	300	176	476		273	30	10	242	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	ACL Brewers	—	155	117	26	4	2	4	32	36	4	12	2	222	405	393	798	171	278	23	21	364	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	—	20	18	2	0	0	0	1	7	1	2	0	111	200	111	311		180	35	5	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	—	155	129	20	3	1	3	20	52	4	12	2	155	288	264	551	109	227	34	13	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	—	20	18	2	0	0	0	1	7	1	2	0	111	200	111	311		182	35	5	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Blue	—	20	17	3	0	0	0	2	6	1	2	0	176	300	176	476		273	30	10	242	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	—	155	129	20	3	1	3	20	52	4	12	2	155	288	264	551	109	224	34	13	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	ACL Brewers	—	155	117	26	4	2	4	32	36	4	12	2	222	405	393	798	171	278	23	21	364	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	—	20	18	2	0	0	0	1	7	1	2	0	111	200	111	311		180	35	5	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	—	155	130	20	3	1	3	20	52	4	12	2	154	288	262	549	108	227	34	13	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Blue	—	20	18	2	0	0	0	1	7	1	2	0	111	200	111	311		180	35	5	162	-4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	—	155	130	20	3	1	3	20	52	4	12	2	154	288	262	549	108	227	34	13	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIL	0%	265	237	49	8	2	4	23	77	3	8	1	208	288	309	597	101	288	29	9	273	71	-9	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIL	34%	133	118	25	4	1	2	12	38	2	5	1	212	294	321	615	109	290	29	9	280	76	-4	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIL	48%	233	207	44	7	2	4	21	66	3	9	2	216	298	332	630	116	291	28	9	286	80	-6	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.1
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIL	54%	345	306	67	11	3	7	31	96	5	13	3	219	301	341	642	122	292	28	9	291	83	-7	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.0
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIL	57%	421	374	84	14	4	9	38	115	6	16	3	222	303	349	652	127	293	27	9	295	85	-7	+2	+0	-3	+9	0.1
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIL	57%	468	416	93	15	4	10	42	127	7	18	4	225	305	355	661	131	294	27	9	298	88	-7	+2	+0	-3	+10	0.3
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIL	57%	496	442	99	16	4	11	44	134	7	19	4	225	306	357	663	132	294	27	9	299	88	-7	+2	+0	-3	+11	0.3
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIL	56%	512	454	103	17	4	12	46	138	7	19	4	225	306	359	665	133	293	27	9	299	89	-7	+2	+0	-3	+11	0.3
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIL	55%	516	458	103	17	4	12	46	140	7	19	4	224	305	356	661	132	293	27	9	298	88	-8	+2	+0	-3	+11	0.3
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIL	55%	512	454	100	16	4	11	46	140	7	19	4	222	303	351	654	129	292	27	9	295	86	-9	+2	-1	-3	+11	0.1
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIL	53%	502	445	99	16	4	11	45	139	7	18	4	220	300	345	645	125	290	28	9	291	83	-10	+2	-1	-3	+11	-0.2
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIL	53%	490	438	95	15	4	10	43	137	6	17	4	216	296	337	633	120	288	28	9	287	80	-12	+2	-2	-3	+11	-0.4
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIL	34%	46	41	8	1	0	1	4	13	1	2	0	210	292	319	611	109	285	28	9	278	76	-1	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIL	48%	113	100	21	3	1	2	10	32	2	4	1	214	296	330	626	116	287	28	9	284	80	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIL	54%	187	165	37	6	2	4	17	52	3	7	1	217	299	340	639	123	287	28	9	289	83	-4	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.0
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIL	57%	238	212	46	7	2	5	21	65	3	9	2	220	302	348	649	128	288	27	9	293	85	-4	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.1
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIL	57%	265	235	52	8	2	6	24	72	4	10	2	222	304	354	658	132	289	27	9	297	88	-4	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.2
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIL	57%	280	249	56	9	2	7	25	76	4	11	2	223	304	356	661	133	289	27	9	298	88	-4	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.2
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIL	56%	289	257	57	9	2	7	26	78	4	11	2	223	304	358	662	135	289	27	9	298	89	-4	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.2
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIL	55%	286	254	57	9	2	7	26	78	4	11	2	222	303	355	658	133	288	27	9	296	88	-4	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.2
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIL	55%	281	250	55	8	2	7	25	77	4	10	2	220	301	350	651	130	287	27	9	294	86	-5	+1	-0	-2	+6	0.0
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIL	53%	268	238	52	8	2	6	24	74	4	9	2	217	298	343	642	126	286	28	9	290	83	-5	+1	-1	-2	+6	-0.1
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIL	53%	258	230	49	7	2	6	23	72	3	9	2	214	294	335	630	121	284	28	9	285	80	-6	+1	-1	-2	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2511	2231	490	75	19	58	225	689	36	93	18	220	301	348	650	129	289	27	9	293	84	-44	+11	-2	-15	+54	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	578	126	19	5	15	58	178	9	24	5	218	299	346	645	128	286	27	9	293	84	-11	+3	-1	-4	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4883	4331	949	153	40	103	442	1352	70	189	39	219	302	344	646	125	292	28	9	292	84	-85	+20	-4	-28	+102	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	126	20	5	14	59	180	9	25	5	218	301	343	644	125	290	28	9	292	84	-12	+3	-1	-4	+14	0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Brewers · 155 PAwOBA .361 → .263 (−97)K% 23.2% → 33.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.23%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	33.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.65%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	13.09%
HBP% /PA	2.58%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	1.90%
Singles /BIP	19.75%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.017	×1.022	16.85%
Doubles /BIP	4.94%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.017	×1.022	3.70%
Triples /BIP	2.47%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.017	×1.022	1.85%
Home runs /BIP	4.94%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	3.94%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .361 → .263; ISO .171 → .131; BABIP .278 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Brewers Blue · 20 PAwOBA .237 → .162 (−75)K% 30.0% → 34.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.00%	÷1.052	×1.220	—	—	34.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.00%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×1.022	7.27%
HBP% /PA	5.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	3.58%
Singles /BIP	27.27%	÷1.051	×0.680	—	×1.022	18.04%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.017	×0.600	—	×1.022	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.042	×0.600	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.042	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 110, 2B 103, 3B 108, K 110, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .237 → .162; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .273 → .180. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Willie Harrislast yr '11 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,743 PA	4.1	2,743	39	106	241	331	351	-11	-2	5.3	6.2
/162	664	9	26	-2.7	-0.5	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Mike Felder'85-'94 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,497 PA	3.8	2,497	14	161	247*	300*	340*	-18	+17	0.9	2.8
/162	664	4	43	-4.9	+4.4	0.2	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.9	2,591	56	95	222	300	349	-16	+0	2.1	2.0
/162	664	14	24	-4.0	+0.0	0.5	pk7: 2
#4Eric Young Jr.last yr '18 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,925 PA	2.9	1,925	13	161	245	312	332	-11	-8	1.2	1.6
/162	664	4	56	-3.9	-2.7	0.4	pk7: 2
#5James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#6Eric Owens'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,576 PA	3.9	2,576	26	126	253*	303*	334*	-18	+1	-0.9	0.4
/162	664	7	32	-4.5	+0.2	-0.2	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Gerlyn Payano (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	206/286/306	100	288	1	3	29%	9%	71	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Jimenez 2023 · A	20	35→44	42→50	53→55	51	176/278/284	108	252	10	16	32%	11%	63	-1.3	209/288/321	112	322	10	16	35%	9%	74	-0.5	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Estevan Florial 2017 · A	19	39→49	42→50	52→60	40	192/255/297	106	289	10	11	35%	7%	56	-1.9	217/275/334	117	369	10	13	40%	7%	72	-0.7	214/285/371	157	317	17	29	36%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	48→55	41→45	56→70	47	227/291/331	104	301	7	17	26%	8%	76	-0.4	226/279/325	99	296	7	16	25%	6%	70	-0.8	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Marcelo Mayer 2022 · A	19	46→47	42→50	53→50	42	215/279/322	107	328	10	12	35%	8%	71	-0.8	225/292/370	145	321	15	12	32%	8%	86	+0.3	229/294/381	151	313	16	14	30%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	39→49	41→45	56→55	45	194/267/288	94	272	9	17	30%	8%	59	-1.6	221/287/321	100	309	7	21	28%	8%	73	-0.6	269/328/372	103	341	7	29	22%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Taylor Trammell 2018 · A	20	46→48	42→55	57→55	44	221/281/328	107	312	8	21	30%	8%	72	-0.7	211/286/306	95	305	8	18	31%	9%	70	-0.8	213/300/386	173	283	21	17	31%	10%	93	+0.5
✕Victor Arias 2024 · A	20	41→50	40→45	55→50	48	193/289/289	97	300	7	16	35%	11%	68	-1.0	227/296/340	113	318	9	15	29%	8%	81	-0.1	226/289/343	117	310	10	15	29%	7%	76	-0.3
✕Max Clark 2024 · A	19	44→53	42→45	51→55	48	207/292/314	106	308	9	11	33%	10%	74	-0.5	238/314/357	119	306	11	17	24%	9%	92	+0.7	245/323/369	124	304	11	19	22%	10%	96	+0.9
✕Franchy Cordero 2014 · A	19	44→54	38→55	58→50	41	207/265/293	86	304	5	13	32%	7%	58	-1.7	208/250/287	79	323	5	13	35%	5%	51	-2.3	250/293/418	168	373	15	17	35%	5%	94	+0.7
✕Juan Villavicencio 2024 · A	19	36→44	38→50	51→55	47	174/251/254	80	234	5	13	26%	8%	45	-2.7	189/262/280	91	279	7	14	32%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Akil Baddoo 2019 · A	20	43→53	43→50	56→55	47	207/283/329	122	293	8	13	30%	9%	74	-0.6	215/284/346	131	317	11	16	33%	9%	78	-0.3	238/319/386	148	309	15	24	26%	11%	100	+0.9
✕Alejandro Osuna 2022 · A	19	43→53	44→45	51→55	42	201/282/320	119	332	11	18	40%	9%	72	-0.7	232/297/351	119	313	12	20	28%	7%	84	+0.2	244/321/351	107	303	9	19	21%	8%	91	+0.5
✕Termarr Johnson 2023 · A	19	46→53	41→45	52→55	47	212/293/316	104	323	7	14	34%	10%	75	-0.5	217/315/345	128	302	15	12	30%	12%	91	+0.6	218/312/337	119	292	14	14	28%	11%	85	+0.2
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Delino DeShields 2012 · A	19	41→51	40→45	50→65	42	201/260/289	88	279	8	16	30%	6%	56	-1.9	234/302/339	105	318	8	38	27%	8%	83	+0.1	239/313/347	108	322	9	47	26%	8%	87	+0.3
✕Marcos Torres 2024 · A	19	36→39	42→45	54→55	42	177/262/280	103	265	9	18	34%	8%	56	-1.9	180/252/283	103	293	9	19	39%	8%	52	-2.2	177/246/289	112	279	10	24	38%	7%	49	-1.4
✕Alberto Rodriguez 2021 · A	20	42→52	38→50	52→50	44	203/259/282	79	268	5	14	25%	7%	53	-2.1	228/290/353	125	327	10	8	31%	7%	82	-0.0	228/292/360	132	326	11	7	31%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Kevyn Castillo 2024 · A	19	49→46	38→50	54→55	53	227/310/317	91	295	4	19	23%	10%	81	-0.1	232/306/336	104	327	8	14	29%	9%	84	+0.1	232/311/351	119	315	11	14	28%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Angel Ortiz 2022 · A	19	42→45	41→50	46→45	44	206/261/296	90	269	9	9	26%	7%	57	-1.8	207/257/302	95	281	7	7	27%	6%	57	-1.8	227/286/370	143	294	13	8	26%	7%	82	+0.0
✕Angel Guzman 2024 · A	18	39	39→45	51→55	51	190/275/281	91	246	6	9	24%	9%	61	-1.5	193/294/290	97	272	8	10	29%	11%	70	-0.8	182/294/282	100	260	9	9	30%	12%	65	-0.4

Gerlyn Payano

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps