Manuel Almeida

C ACL Mariners

Age 19 S/R 5'11" / 187 lbs ROK K +7%HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2241ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKSEA	169	.280/.349/.473	8	0	38	—	.174/.229/.271
2026	18	ROKSEA	111	.115/.234/.177	1	0	-29	—	.079/.162/.129
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBSEA	221	.190/.251/.276	3	2	49	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBSEA	39	.194/.256/.286	1	0	55	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBSEA	102	.198/.262/.297	2	1	60	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%34

BB%31

ISO21

Z-Con%9

Speed6

K%4

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsEnderson Delgado (age 19) · Omar Estévez (age 19) · Clayton Campbell (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 59 proj PA

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.189 / .249 / .274

PA59

HR1

K%33

BB%7

ISO86

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED35

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Mariners	—	169	150	42	5	0	8	16	46	0	0	3	280	349	473	823	193	343	27	9	358	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	ACL Mariners	—	111	96	11	3	0	1	14	41	1	0	0	115	234	177	411	63	185	37	13	205	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	169	155	27	3	0	4	11	56	0	0	3	174	229	271	500	97	228	33	7	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	111	101	8	2	0	1	9	59	1	0	0	79	162	129	291	50	150	53	8	125	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	169	155	27	3	0	4	11	56	0	0	3	174	229	271	500	97	235	33	7	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	—	169	150	42	5	0	8	16	46	0	0	3	280	349	473	823	193	343	27	9	358	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	111	101	8	2	0	1	9	59	1	0	0	79	162	129	291	50	171	53	8	125	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	ACL Mariners	—	111	96	11	3	0	1	14	41	1	0	0	115	234	177	411	63	185	37	13	205	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	169	156	27	3	0	4	11	56	0	0	3	173	229	269	498	96	228	33	7	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	111	100	8	2	0	1	9	59	1	0	0	80	162	130	292	50	150	53	8	125	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	—	169	156	27	3	0	4	11	56	0	0	3	173	229	269	498	96	228	33	7	224	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	ACL Mariners	—	111	100	8	2	0	1	9	59	1	0	0	80	162	130	292	50	150	53	8	125	-29	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	SEA	0%	221	202	38	6	1	3	15	73	2	2	1	190	251	276	527	86	277	33	7	240	49	-14	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	SEA	34%	114	104	21	3	1	2	8	37	1	1	1	196	258	290	548	94	279	32	7	249	55	-6	-0	+0	+2	+2	-0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	SEA	48%	210	191	38	6	1	4	15	66	2	2	1	200	264	302	565	102	281	31	7	256	60	-10	+0	+0	+4	+5	-0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	SEA	54%	321	292	60	10	2	6	23	99	3	3	2	204	268	311	580	108	282	31	7	262	64	-14	-0	+0	+6	+7	-0.1
2031	23	MLB MLE	SEA	57%	403	367	76	13	2	8	29	123	4	4	2	207	272	319	592	112	284	31	7	267	67	-16	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.0
2032	24	MLB MLE	SEA	57%	445	406	84	14	2	9	32	133	4	5	2	210	276	326	602	116	285	30	7	271	70	-16	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.2
2033	25	MLB MLE	SEA	57%	445	406	84	14	2	9	32	133	4	5	2	210	276	327	603	117	285	30	7	272	70	-16	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.2
2034	26	MLB MLE	SEA	56%	445	405	85	14	2	10	33	133	4	4	2	210	276	327	603	117	285	30	7	272	70	-16	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.2
2035	27	MLB MLE	SEA	60%	445	405	84	14	2	9	33	134	4	4	2	209	275	325	599	116	284	30	7	270	69	-16	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.1
2036	28	MLB MLE	SEA	57%	445	405	84	14	2	9	33	135	4	4	3	207	273	320	593	113	283	30	7	268	67	-17	-0	-1	+8	+10	-0.1
2037	29	MLB MLE	SEA	60%	445	406	83	14	2	9	32	136	4	3	3	205	270	314	584	109	281	31	7	264	65	-19	-1	-1	+8	+10	-0.3
2028	20	MLB CTX	SEA	34%	39	36	7	1	0	1	3	13	0	0	0	194	256	286	542	92	277	33	8	247	55	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	SEA	48%	102	93	19	3	1	2	7	32	1	1	1	198	262	297	559	99	278	31	7	254	60	-5	-0	+0	+2	+2	-0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	SEA	54%	174	158	32	5	1	3	12	54	2	2	1	202	266	307	574	105	280	31	7	260	64	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	SEA	57%	228	208	42	7	1	4	16	69	2	2	1	205	270	315	585	110	281	30	7	265	67	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.0
2032	24	MLB CTX	SEA	57%	252	230	47	8	1	5	18	75	2	3	1	208	274	322	595	114	282	30	7	269	70	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2033	25	MLB CTX	SEA	57%	251	229	47	8	1	5	18	75	2	3	1	208	274	323	597	114	282	30	7	269	70	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2034	26	MLB CTX	SEA	56%	251	229	47	8	1	5	18	75	2	3	1	208	274	323	597	115	282	30	7	269	70	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2035	27	MLB CTX	SEA	60%	266	243	49	8	1	5	19	80	2	3	1	207	273	320	593	113	281	30	7	268	69	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2036	28	MLB CTX	SEA	57%	254	231	47	8	1	5	19	77	2	2	1	205	271	316	586	110	280	30	7	265	67	-10	+0	-0	+5	+6	-0.0
2037	29	MLB CTX	SEA	60%	265	242	49	8	1	5	19	81	2	2	2	203	268	309	577	107	279	31	7	261	65	-11	-0	-1	+5	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2082	1899	386	64	9	40	149	631	17	21	10	203	267	310	577	106	280	30	7	265	63	-81	+0	-1	+37	+45	0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	120	20	3	12	47	197	5	7	3	202	267	307	574	105	279	30	7	265	63	-25	+0	-0	+12	+14	0.0
Career	—	MLE		—	4057	3698	745	123	18	81	294	1263	35	36	23	201	267	310	577	109	280	31	7	261	63	-150	-1	-2	+67	+82	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	120	20	3	13	47	202	6	6	4	203	268	312	580	110	282	31	7	261	63	-26	-0	-0	+12	+14	-0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL Mariners · 111 PAwOBA .201 → .125 (−75)K% 36.9% → 53.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	36.94%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	53.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.61%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	7.88%
HBP% /PA	0.90%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.65%
Singles /BIP	12.73%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.020	×1.008	10.73%
Doubles /BIP	5.45%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.020	×1.008	4.04%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.020	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.82%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.008	1.43%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.020.

Result: wOBA .201 → .125; ISO .062 → .037; BABIP .185 → .150. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Mariners · 169 PAwOBA .354 → .224 (−131)K% 27.2% → 33.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.22%	÷1.003	×1.220	—	—	33.11%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.47%	÷0.996	×0.700	—	×1.008	6.71%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.88%	÷0.986	×0.680	×1.014	×1.008	19.64%
Doubles /BIP	4.81%	÷0.989	×0.600	×1.014	×1.008	2.98%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.600	×1.014	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.69%	÷0.936	×0.470	—	×1.008	3.89%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .354 → .224; ISO .193 → .099; BABIP .343 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
#4Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.2	2,142	43	21	208	270	320	+38	+24	1.3	1.4
/162	664	13	6	+11.9	+7.4	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#6Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	8	2	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Manuel Almeida (OGILVIE)	19	40	45	35	35	189/249/274	85	277	1	1	33%	7%	49	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Enderson Delgado 2024 · A	19	32	38→45	44→30	42	160/240/231	71	233	6	5	32%	7%	36	-3.3	187/268/277	90	268	8	4	31%	7%	57	-1.8	177/262/262	85	246	8	2	29%	7%	51	-0.7
✕Omar Estévez 2017 · A	19	43	42→45	39→40	34	212/248/318	106	303	9	4	33%	4%	57	-1.8	214/256/315	101	300	9	3	30%	5%	60	-1.6	201/256/294	92	277	9	1	29%	6%	54	-1.1
✕Clayton Campbell 2023 · A	19	37→44	37→45	41→45	44	174/265/248	74	284	4	4	37%	9%	50	-2.3	177/259/266	89	265	7	6	33%	8%	52	-2.2	157/241/237	80	226	7	5	32%	8%	38	-1.2
✕Jose Marquez 2017 · A	19	39	35→50	43→50	39	188/235/250	62	260	2	6	28%	5%	36	-3.3	206/251/301	95	277	7	6	27%	5%	55	-2.0	193/242/300	108	259	10	7	29%	5%	48	-0.8
✕Jeffrey Mercedes 2024 · A	19	41	39→45	45	39	199/250/289	89	270	6	4	28%	5%	52	-2.2	202/256/296	94	267	7	5	26%	6%	55	-1.9	194/249/295	101	248	10	4	25%	6%	51	-1.1
✕Gabriel Quintana 2012 · A	19	37→44	40→55	41→45	38	184/244/275	91	258	8	5	31%	5%	47	-2.5	216/255/331	115	310	12	5	33%	3%	63	-1.3	225/256/353	128	322	15	4	34%	2%	66	-0.7
✕Alejandro Flores 2016 · A	20	36	39→50	45→40	43	179/246/260	81	255	6	5	31%	8%	45	-2.7	204/264/306	102	299	8	6	32%	7%	61	-1.5	206/261/337	132	279	11	4	29%	6%	64	-0.6
✕Joe DeCarlo 2013 · A	19	39→38	41→50	43→30	45	190/273/293	102	270	8	3	30%	8%	63	-1.4	186/268/287	101	300	9	2	38%	8%	59	-1.6	191/272/338	147	261	18	1	32%	8%	70	-0.5
✕Starlin Aguilar 2023 · A	19	41	35→50	40→45	40	196/247/250	54	277	2	3	29%	6%	41	-3.0	192/244/262	70	294	4	5	34%	5%	43	-2.8	180/228/272	92	279	9	2	37%	5%	36	-1.1
✕Yonatan Henriquez 2024 · A	19	39→48	36→45	42→55	49	183/270/250	67	263	4	10	30%	10%	52	-2.2	203/275/292	89	282	6	18	28%	8%	62	-1.4	199/262/302	103	269	9	23	28%	7%	58	-1.1
✕Jonathan Araúz 2017 · A	18	41→40	37→45	43→45	41	196/245/271	75	262	5	4	26%	5%	45	-2.7	200/257/291	91	255	7	4	23%	7%	55	-1.9	193/263/299	106	237	12	3	23%	8%	58	-1.0
✕Jose Herrera 2017 · A	20	44	40	43→40	45	215/277/303	88	278	8	4	25%	7%	65	-1.2	202/258/285	83	259	5	3	23%	7%	54	-2.0	214/297/304	90	284	9	3	26%	10%	72	-0.4
✕William Lugo 2021 · A	19	38→40	37→45	41→45	40	177/251/246	69	284	4	5	36%	7%	43	-2.8	191/256/303	112	285	12	5	35%	7%	59	-1.7	185/248/303	118	257	14	4	32%	7%	53	-1.3
✕Jose Perez 2022 · A	18	39	37→40	42→45	48	187/265/263	76	258	4	6	27%	9%	53	-2.1	190/298/267	77	248	4	7	22%	12%	67	-1.1	180/313/262	82	232	4	7	21%	15%	70	-0.2
✕Bryan Ramos 2021 · A	19	44→42	40→50	44→50	41	210/271/306	95	293	8	6	30%	6%	63	-1.3	215/279/354	139	276	16	6	28%	6%	79	-0.2	211/278/358	146	263	19	5	27%	6%	76	-0.3
✕Cameron Garfield 2010 · A	19	41→43	39→45	41→45	32	196/239/276	80	305	7	5	37%	4%	45	-2.7	212/254/306	94	283	8	4	27%	4%	57	-1.8	211/249/313	102	279	10	2	27%	4%	54	-1.3
✕Milkar Perez 2021 · A	19	40	37→40	45→40	48	193/268/266	72	257	5	8	25%	8%	54	-2.0	202/294/259	57	308	2	4	31%	11%	63	-1.4	211/289/291	80	310	4	2	30%	9%	66	-0.7
✕Freuddy Batista 2019 · A	19	36	40→50	45→40	43	179/248/267	88	250	7	4	30%	7%	47	-2.5	187/244/294	107	279	10	5	35%	6%	51	-2.2	195/262/337	142	285	14	5	35%	6%	66	-0.5
✕Cristian Santana 2017 · A	20	37→47	41→50	39→30	36	189/222/283	94	250	9	4	28%	4%	39	-3.1	234/258/361	127	319	16	2	31%	3%	72	-0.7	256/283/351	96	338	10	0	27%	3%	75	-0.3
✕Luis Suisbel 2023 · A	20	33→43	38→50	46→45	40	163/257/237	74	251	5	6	34%	7%	45	-2.7	200/279/328	128	306	15	5	37%	7%	73	-0.6	191/267/326	136	288	18	4	38%	7%	68	-0.8

Manuel Almeida

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps