Jonathan Araúz — OGILVIE

Jonathan Araúz2B Leones del Escogido

Age 27 S/R 6'0" / 195 lbs INTL HR -6% Svc 6.000 · Ctrl thru 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 295 proj PA

wRC+†75

AVG/OBP/SLG.214 / .278 / .350

PA295

HR8

K%26

BB%8

ISO137

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 34 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2021-2023

CONTACT34

Whiff%

5710.3%

xwOBA

100.261

POWER45

Barrel%

315.7

Avg EV

1686.5

Bat Spd

5571.9

EYE47

Chase%

3933.8%

SPEED41

Sprint

2226.1

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2020

Service 6.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2026

First FA Year 2027

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.4M		$0.0M	-$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	16	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	188	178	31	7	1	1	8	42	1	2	0	174	214	242	455	67	221	22	4	208	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	16	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	188	173	44	10	2	2	13	29	1	2	0	254	310	370	680	116	294	15	7	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK	Greeneville Astros	—	229	209	39	7	1	2	11	64	4	1	3	187	241	258	499	72	255	28	5	216	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	17	ROK	Greeneville Astros	—	229	201	50	10	1	2	19	45	4	1	3	249	326	338	664	90	308	20	8	298	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	149	133	25	3	1	0	14	22	1	0	1	188	270	226	496	38	225	15	9	228	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	18	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	149	127	28	3	2	0	20	18	1	0	1	220	331	276	607	55	257	12	13	286	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+	2 teams	—	490	452	88	17	8	7	31	107	3	8	8	195	251	314	565	119	238	22	6	247	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	19	A+	2 teams	—	490	437	100	21	9	8	46	74	3	8	8	229	307	373	680	144	258	15	9	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+	2 teams	—	473	440	83	15	2	9	25	128	5	6	5	189	240	293	534	105	242	27	5	235	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	20	A+	2 teams	—	473	425	106	22	2	11	40	88	5	6	5	249	321	388	710	139	289	19	8	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	21	MLB	2 teams	—	107	96	22	2	0	1	11	28	0	0	0	229	308	281	590	52	313	26	10	286	77	-3	+0	-3	+0	+3	-0.2
2020	21	MLB	2 teams	—	107	98	25	3	0	1	9	25	0	0	0	255	318	316	634	61	333	23	8	292	81	-2	+0	-3	+0	+3	-0.1
2021	22	AAA	2 teams	—	342	308	63	9	1	6	28	67	0	2	0	205	271	299	570	94	238	20	8	256	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	AAA	2 teams	—	342	298	69	11	1	9	38	60	0	2	0	232	318	366	684	134	258	18	11	305	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	2 teams	—	185	174	32	7	0	1	8	37	1	2	0	184	224	241	465	57	226	20	4	202	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	AAA	2 teams	—	185	170	32	8	0	1	12	34	1	2	0	188	246	253	499	65	228	18	6	229	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	3 teams	—	582	514	97	15	2	17	55	164	2	5	3	189	270	325	595	136	234	28	9	266	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	AAA	3 teams	—	582	493	114	18	3	18	76	129	2	5	3	231	336	389	726	158	270	22	13	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	2 teams	—	318	299	60	13	1	4	17	96	0	4	1	201	244	291	535	90	279	30	5	229	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	AAA	2 teams	—	318	287	63	14	1	4	29	66	0	4	1	220	291	317	608	98	269	21	9	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	54	47	6	2	0	0	6	14	1	1	2	128	241	170	411	43	182	26	11	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	26	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	54	47	6	2	0	0	6	14	1	1	2	128	241	170	411	43	182	26	11	206	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	LAD	—	295	269	58	11	1	8	23	78	1	3	1	216	280	353	633	138	272	26	8	283	75	-8	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	LAD	26%	341	310	67	13	1	9	26	90	2	3	1	216	281	352	633	135	271	26	8	282	74	-10	+0	-1	+1	+10	0.0
2028	29	MLB	LAD	37%	353	321	68	13	1	9	27	94	2	3	1	212	277	343	620	131	270	27	8	280	73	-11	+0	-1	+1	+10	-0.1
2027	28	MLB	LAD	26%	88	81	16	3	0	2	7	23	0	1	0	198	261	309	570	111	267	26	8	275	68	-3	+0	-0	+0	+2	-0.0
2028	29	MLB	LAD	37%	129	117	25	5	1	3	10	34	1	1	0	214	281	350	632	137	266	26	8	273	67	-5	+0	-0	+0	+4	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	479	432	84	13	1	13	39	123	1	2	0	194	263	319	582	125	238	26	8	261	58	-23	+0	-3	+8	+14	-0.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	114	18	1	18	53	167	1	3	0	195	263	321	583	126	238	26	8	261	58	-31	+1	-4	+10	+18	-0.6
Career	—			—	4106	3750	739	134	20	74	290	1031	23	40	26	197	259	303	562	106	249	25	7	248	48	-243	-2	-4	+17	+116	-11.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	594	117	21	3	12	46	163	4	6	4	197	260	303	563	106	248	25	7	248	48	-38	-0	-1	+3	+18	-1.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2015	16	ROK	GCL Phillies	—	188	173	44	10	2	2	13	29	1	2	0	254	310	370	680	116	294	15	7	304	91	-2	+0	—	—	+5	0.4
2016	17	ROK	Greeneville Astros	—	229	201	50	10	1	2	19	45	4	1	3	249	326	338	664	90	308	20	8	298	86	-4	-1	—	—	+6	0.2
2017	18	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	149	127	28	3	2	0	20	18	1	0	1	220	331	276	607	55	257	12	13	286	77	-4	-0	—	—	+4	-0.0
2018	19	A+	Buies Creek Astros	—	253	233	39	10	3	4	16	36	1	1	2	167	224	288	512	120	180	14	6	229	33	-19	-1	—	—	+7	-1.3
2018	19	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	—	237	204	61	11	6	4	30	38	2	7	6	299	394	471	865	172	350	16	13	383	151	+14	-1	—	—	+7	2.0
2019	20	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	119	108	26	3	2	3	10	19	1	1	1	241	311	389	700	148	267	16	8	314	98	-0	-0	—	—	+3	0.3
2019	20	A+	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	354	317	80	19	0	8	30	69	4	5	4	252	325	388	713	136	296	19	8	319	102	+1	-1	—	—	+10	1.1
2020	21	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	80	72	18	2	0	1	8	21	0	0	0	250	325	319	644	69	340	26	10	298	86	-1	+0	-3	+0	+2	-0.1
2020	21	INTL	Panama	—	27	26	7	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	269	296	308	604	38	318	15	4	275	68	-1	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2021	22	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	75	65	12	3	0	3	8	15	0	0	0	185	274	369	643	185	191	20	11	281	74	-2	+0	-0	+4	+2	0.4
2021	22	AAA	Worcester Red Sox	—	267	233	57	8	1	6	30	45	0	2	0	245	331	365	696	120	274	17	11	312	97	-1	+0	—	—	+8	0.7
2022	23	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	41	38	5	0	0	1	1	12	0	0	0	132	154	211	364	79	154	29	2	156	-22	-6	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.4
2022	23	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	144	132	27	8	0	0	11	22	1	2	0	205	271	265	536	61	245	15	8	249	49	-8	+0	—	—	+4	-0.4
2023	24	MLB	New York Mets	—	66	59	8	0	0	3	5	18	0	0	0	136	203	288	491	153	132	27	8	216	24	-6	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.2
2023	24	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	415	352	84	14	3	14	55	90	2	2	0	239	345	415	760	176	276	22	13	337	116	+7	+0	—	—	+12	2.0
2023	24	INTL	Estrellas Orientales	—	101	82	22	4	0	1	16	21	0	3	3	268	388	354	741	85	333	21	16	334	114	+2	-1	—	—	+3	0.4
2024	25	AAA	Oklahoma City Baseball Club	—	245	225	51	11	1	3	19	56	0	2	0	227	287	324	611	98	287	23	8	277	70	-8	+0	—	—	+7	-0.1
2024	25	INTL	Yaquis de Obregon	—	73	62	12	3	0	1	10	10	0	2	1	194	306	290	596	97	212	14	14	276	69	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2025	26	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	54	47	6	2	0	0	6	14	1	1	2	128	241	170	411	43	182	26	11	206	16	-5	-1	—	—	+2	-0.4
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	262	234	43	5	0	8	22	66	0	0	0	184	254	308	562	124	217	25	8	250	50	-15	+0	-2	+7	+7	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#2Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#3Juan Castrolast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,352 PA	11	2,352	34	4	237	273	341	+10	+21	1.0	2.7
	/162	664	10	1	237	273	341	+3.0	+5.8	0.3	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	733	20	5	209	275	344	+3	-2	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	18	4	209	275	344	+2.4	-1.7	0.0	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jonathan Araúz (OGILVIE)	27	34	45	41	47	214/278/350	136	272	8	3	26%	8%	75	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brad Davis 2010 · AAA	27	39	46→50	42→45	44	201/260/336	135	254	13	3	26%	7%	63	-0.9	220/274/344	124	286	12	5	26%	6%	70	-0.3	217/271/330	113	284	10	4	26%	6%	61	-0.5
✕Griff Erickson 2015 · AAA	27	41→50	47→45	39→40	46	211/278/346	135	268	15	4	27%	8%	73	-0.1	218/278/338	120	276	12	7	25%	7%	71	-0.3	202/264/297	95	251	9	2	23%	6%	52	-0.6
✕Gavin Collins 2022 · AAA	27	41	45→50	44→40	44	208/276/324	116	260	13	6	25%	7%	67	-0.5	222/290/349	127	278	15	6	25%	7%	79	+0.3	211/275/318	107	244	12	3	18%	6%	62	-0.3
✕Andrew Susac 2017 · MLB	27	41→40	47→50	47→30	43	210/272/345	135	276	15	3	29%	7%	70	-0.3	196/269/337	141	275	17	5	33%	9%	68	-0.5	165/254/305	140	229	19	0	35%	10%	53	-0.5
✕Michael Pérez 2021 · MLB	28	42	46→50	40	46	212/276/338	127	270	14	4	27%	8%	70	-0.3	185/257/323	138	236	18	4	29%	8%	59	-1.1	167/245/284	117	216	16	1	31%	8%	43	-0.9
✕Alan Trejo 2023 · MLB	27	40→42	50	40→45	37	212/251/371	159	265	18	5	28%	4%	68	-0.5	215/267/347	132	275	14	9	26%	6%	68	-0.5	211/267/341	130	267	14	7	26%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Dan Butler 2014 · AAA	27	42→38	47→45	44→40	46	212/276/343	130	252	15	4	22%	7%	72	-0.2	215/276/314	99	280	7	3	24%	7%	63	-0.8	220/291/305	85	286	5	0	23%	8%	65	-0.3
✕Johnny Monell 2013 · AAA	27	42→44	47→50	42→45	43	214/275/353	139	286	14	4	30%	7%	74	-0.1	222/286/353	131	290	13	7	27%	8%	78	+0.2	224/289/345	121	286	13	8	25%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Grayson Greiner 2020 · MLB	27	42	45	45→30	45	212/276/331	119	282	13	3	29%	8%	68	-0.5	203/266/324	121	314	14	4	37%	7%	63	-0.9	179/245/267	88	331	10	1	45%	7%	36	-0.9
✕Chadwick Tromp 2022 · MLB	27	38	50	45→40	36	206/242/353	146	260	19	4	30%	4%	59	-1.1	217/266/361	144	268	18	3	26%	6%	72	-0.2	222/279/363	141	273	17	0	25%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Brett Cumberland 2022 · AAA	27	38→39	45→50	47→30	40	186/300/307	121	294	14	5	38%	8%	76	+0.1	216/299/337	121	315	14	7	34%	7%	81	+0.4	221/300/319	98	316	13	0	32%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Alberto Concepcion 2008 · AAA	27	40	45	39→30	40	206/264/329	124	272	13	3	29%	6%	63	-0.9	226/290/352	126	285	13	6	25%	6%	80	+0.4	235/305/345	109	291	11	2	22%	7%	83	+0.2
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2009 · AAA	27	40	45→50	41→40	41	206/255/325	120	258	13	5	26%	6%	58	-1.2	225/283/348	123	276	13	3	23%	6%	76	+0.0	231/290/376	145	269	19	2	22%	6%	82	+0.2
✕Lucas May 2012 · MLB	27	40→43	47→55	43→45	40	206/262/338	132	278	15	6	31%	6%	64	-0.8	194/231/301	107	272	10	6	32%	4%	40	-2.4	181/208/272	91	259	7	3	33%	3%	21	-1.5
✕JD Closser 2009 · MLB	29	40	45→50	43→45	50	204/275/324	121	249	13	6	24%	9%	66	-0.6	212/270/298	86	269	8	7	23%	7%	56	-1.3	209/267/281	72	262	7	6	22%	7%	48	-0.9
✕Isan Díaz 2022 · MLB	26	42	48→55	38→45	48	214/291/356	142	281	16	4	29%	9%	82	+0.5	218/292/403	185	293	25	9	33%	9%	95	+1.4	193/273/381	188	236	29	8	32%	9%	77	+0.1
✕Tristan Gray 2022 · AAA	26	42→35	48→55	41→40	42	216/275/358	142	287	16	5	30%	7%	75	-0.0	190/242/353	163	263	22	4	36%	5%	60	-1.0	202/259/335	133	273	15	3	31%	6%	61	-0.6
✕Carlos Corporán 2011 · AAA	27	41	44→45	44→40	37	206/253/320	114	268	11	5	28%	4%	56	-1.3	220/272/339	119	285	12	4	27%	5%	69	-0.4	232/287/363	131	284	17	1	24%	5%	80	+0.1
✕Michael Papierski 2023 · MLB	27	41→44	42→45	38→40	50	202/285/301	99	257	10	3	24%	9%	65	-0.7	212/291/323	111	274	11	4	25%	9%	72	-0.2	207/292/314	107	268	11	1	26%	10%	70	-0.2
✕Wyatt Toregas 2010 · MLB	27	45→40	47→50	43→40	45	226/279/354	127	260	15	4	20%	6%	76	+0.0	207/258/318	111	251	12	6	22%	5%	57	-1.2	171/215/269	98	187	13	0	18%	4%	27	-0.7