William Lugo
SS Binghamton Rumble Ponies| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 21 | A+NYM | 437 | .237/.320/.385 | 11 | 7 | 50 | — | .188/.248/.298 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+NYM | 346 | .186/.335/.339 | 8 | 5 | 34 | — | .133/.239/.233 |
| 2025 | 23 | AANYM | 427 | .205/.286/.292 | 6 | 5 | 42 | — | .192/.255/.267 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 25 | MLBNYM | 3 | .178/.250/.261 | 0 | 0 | 49 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 26 | MLBNYM | 54 | .182/.255/.272 | 1 | 0 | 54 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | GCL Mets | — | 176 | 146 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 158 | 285 | 219 | 504 | 62 | 216 | 26 | 12 | 242 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | FCL Mets | — | 183 | 156 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 52 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 218 | 330 | 372 | 701 | 154 | 283 | 28 | 13 | 319 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 121 | 105 | 28 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 27 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 267 | 353 | 448 | 801 | 181 | 316 | 22 | 11 | 351 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A | St. Lucie Mets | — | 357 | 314 | 82 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 90 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 261 | 348 | 427 | 775 | 166 | 335 | 25 | 10 | 346 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 437 | 384 | 91 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 40 | 92 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 237 | 320 | 385 | 706 | 148 | 279 | 21 | 9 | 314 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 346 | 280 | 52 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 57 | 95 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 186 | 335 | 339 | 675 | 154 | 244 | 27 | 16 | 311 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 427 | 380 | 78 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 113 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 205 | 286 | 292 | 578 | 87 | 272 | 26 | 9 | 266 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Mets | — | 176 | 153 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 66 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 111 | 209 | 157 | 366 | 46 | 168 | 38 | 8 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 183 | 164 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 75 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 146 | 231 | 244 | 475 | 98 | 221 | 41 | 8 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 121 | 110 | 25 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 286 | 391 | 677 | 164 | 274 | 30 | 7 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | St. Lucie Mets | — | 357 | 327 | 64 | 13 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 128 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 261 | 321 | 582 | 125 | 289 | 36 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 437 | 399 | 75 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 118 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 188 | 248 | 298 | 547 | 110 | 232 | 27 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 346 | 301 | 40 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 126 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 133 | 239 | 233 | 472 | 100 | 199 | 36 | 10 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 427 | 390 | 75 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 136 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 192 | 255 | 267 | 522 | 74 | 267 | 32 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Mets | — | 176 | 153 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 66 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 111 | 209 | 157 | 366 | 46 | 180 | 38 | 8 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK RAW | GCL Mets | — | 176 | 146 | 23 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 46 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 158 | 285 | 219 | 504 | 62 | 216 | 26 | 12 | 242 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 183 | 164 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 75 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 146 | 231 | 244 | 475 | 98 | 233 | 41 | 8 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK RAW | FCL Mets | — | 183 | 156 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 52 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 218 | 330 | 372 | 701 | 154 | 283 | 28 | 13 | 319 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 478 | 437 | 89 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 163 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 267 | 339 | 606 | 135 | 291 | 34 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 478 | 419 | 110 | 25 | 2 | 14 | 50 | 117 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 263 | 349 | 432 | 781 | 169 | 330 | 24 | 10 | 348 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 437 | 399 | 75 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 118 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 188 | 248 | 298 | 547 | 110 | 237 | 27 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ RAW | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 437 | 384 | 91 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 40 | 92 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 237 | 320 | 385 | 706 | 148 | 279 | 21 | 9 | 314 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 346 | 301 | 40 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 126 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 133 | 239 | 233 | 472 | 100 | 202 | 36 | 10 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ RAW | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 346 | 280 | 52 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 57 | 95 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 186 | 335 | 339 | 675 | 154 | 244 | 27 | 16 | 311 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 427 | 390 | 75 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 136 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 192 | 255 | 267 | 522 | 74 | 277 | 32 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA RAW | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 427 | 380 | 78 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 113 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 205 | 286 | 292 | 578 | 87 | 272 | 26 | 9 | 266 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK MLE | GCL Mets | — | 176 | 155 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 66 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 110 | 209 | 155 | 364 | 45 | 168 | 38 | 8 | 167 | -1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK MLE | FCL Mets | — | 183 | 163 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 75 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 147 | 231 | 245 | 476 | 98 | 221 | 41 | 8 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 478 | 437 | 89 | 19 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 163 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 267 | 339 | 606 | 135 | 285 | 34 | 7 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 437 | 402 | 75 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 25 | 118 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 187 | 248 | 296 | 544 | 109 | 232 | 27 | 6 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 346 | 301 | 40 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 126 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 133 | 239 | 233 | 472 | 100 | 199 | 36 | 10 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 427 | 391 | 75 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 136 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 192 | 255 | 266 | 521 | 74 | 267 | 32 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 22 | A+ MLE | Brooklyn Cyclones | — | 346 | 301 | 40 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 126 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 133 | 239 | 233 | 472 | 100 | 199 | 36 | 10 | 218 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 23 | AA MLE | Binghamton Rumble Ponies | — | 427 | 391 | 75 | 14 | 0 | 5 | 29 | 136 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 192 | 255 | 266 | 521 | 74 | 267 | 32 | 7 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB MLE | NYM | 2% | 380 | 344 | 63 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 116 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 184 | 256 | 269 | 524 | 85 | 258 | 31 | 8 | 241 | 49 | -23 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB CTX | NYM | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 178 | 250 | 261 | 511 | 82 | 250 | 33 | 0 | 236 | 49 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 26 | MLB MLE | NYM | 31% | 175 | 157 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 53 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 188 | 260 | 280 | 540 | 93 | 260 | 30 | 8 | 248 | 54 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB CTX | NYM | 31% | 54 | 49 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 182 | 255 | 272 | 527 | 90 | 252 | 30 | 7 | 242 | 54 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 54 | 49 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 259 | 286 | 545 | 102 | 250 | 30 | 7 | 242 | 44 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 590 | 108 | 24 | 0 | 12 | 48 | 193 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 183 | 258 | 285 | 543 | 102 | 249 | 30 | 7 | 242 | 44 | -36 | +0 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2382 | 2146 | 376 | 76 | 6 | 41 | 177 | 786 | 35 | 27 | 11 | 175 | 249 | 274 | 523 | 98 | 250 | 33 | 7 | 233 | 44 | -19 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +7 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 586 | 103 | 21 | 2 | 11 | 48 | 214 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 176 | 250 | 275 | 525 | 99 | 251 | 33 | 7 | 233 | 44 | -37 | +2 | +0 | +7 | +14 | -1.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 427 PAwOBA .262 → .230 (−31)K% 26.5% → 31.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.46% | ÷1.015 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.80% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.13% | ÷0.983 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 6.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.35% | ÷0.982 | ×0.970 | ×0.989 | ×1.027 | 21.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.62% | ÷0.941 | ×0.860 | ×0.989 | ×1.027 | 5.22% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.911 | ×0.950 | ×0.989 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.25% | ÷0.990 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.82% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 96, 2B 88, 3B 82, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.
Result: wOBA .262 → .230; ISO .087 → .073; BABIP .272 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 346 PAwOBA .307 → .218 (−89)K% 27.5% → 36.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.46% | ÷0.988 | ×1.310 | — | — | 36.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.47% | ÷0.973 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 10.28% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.73% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.59% | ÷1.032 | ×0.870 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 12.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.11% | ÷1.005 | ×0.780 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 6.32% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.08% | ÷0.929 | ×0.850 | ×0.992 | ×1.012 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.32% | ÷1.341 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 2.87% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 168, 1B 106, 2B 101, 3B 86, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.992.
Result: wOBA .307 → .218; ISO .154 → .109; BABIP .244 → .199. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 437 PAwOBA .310 → .242 (−68)K% 21.1% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.05% | ÷1.018 | ×1.310 | — | — | 27.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.15% | ÷0.970 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 5.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.60% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.21% | ÷0.973 | ×0.870 | ×0.955 | ×1.027 | 17.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.16% | ÷1.058 | ×0.780 | ×0.955 | ×1.027 | 4.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.03% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.955 | ×1.027 | 0.74% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.77% | ÷1.054 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 3.23% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 95, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .310 → .242; ISO .148 → .117; BABIP .279 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASt. Lucie Mets · 357 PAwOBA .338 → .255 (−83)K% 25.2% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.21% | ÷0.959 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.36% | ÷1.081 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 6.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.40% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.13% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.21% | ÷1.052 | ×0.920 | ×0.973 | ×1.030 | 20.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.04% | ÷0.999 | ×0.830 | ×0.973 | ×1.030 | 6.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.89% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.973 | ×1.030 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.46% | ÷0.949 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 3.88% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 110, 2B 100, 3B 80, K 92, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.973.
Result: wOBA .338 → .255; ISO .166 → .129; BABIP .335 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Brooklyn Cyclones · 121 PAwOBA .348 → .285 (−62)K% 22.3% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.31% | ÷0.995 | ×1.310 | — | — | 29.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.74% | ÷1.020 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 6.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.79% | ÷1.026 | ×0.870 | ×1.016 | ×1.042 | 19.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.97% | ÷1.030 | ×0.780 | ×1.016 | ×1.042 | 7.19% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.850 | ×1.016 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.13% | ÷0.925 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 5.08% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 112, K 99, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .348 → .285; ISO .181 → .164; BABIP .316 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Mets · 183 PAwOBA .313 → .215 (−98)K% 28.4% → 40.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.42% | ÷1.004 | ×1.440 | — | — | 40.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.57% | ÷0.950 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.64% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.15% | ÷1.040 | ×0.820 | ×1.018 | ×1.008 | 17.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.77% | ÷1.013 | ×0.720 | ×1.018 | ×1.008 | 4.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.018 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.77% | ÷0.958 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 4.73% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 108, 2B 103, 3B 100, K 101, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .313 → .215; ISO .154 → .107; BABIP .283 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 ROKGCL Mets · 176 PAwOBA .241 → .167 (−73)K% 26.1% → 37.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.14% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.038 | 7.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.84% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.038 | 2.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.038 | 12.93% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.038 | 4.26% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.038 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.038 | 0.81% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 19.5 → +3.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .241 → .167; ISO .062 → .042; BABIP .216 → .168. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).