Matt Jones
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 26 | AA/ROK2 orgs | 164 | .243/.313/.358 | 4 | 0 | 37 | — | .183/.233/.268 |
| 2019 | 27 | AAAARI | 22 | .053/.182/.105 | 0 | 0 | -41 | — | .050/.136/.100 |
| 2021 | 29 | AALAA | 64 | .169/.222/.424 | 4 | 0 | 13 | — | .133/.175/.283 |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 23 | ROK | Missoula Osprey | — | 110 | 98 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 330 | 378 | 708 | 122 | 312 | 18 | 9 | 317 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Mobile BayBears | — | 32 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 129 | 194 | 323 | 65 | 160 | 22 | 0 | 137 | -39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | — | 41 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 229 | 341 | 343 | 684 | 114 | 276 | 15 | 15 | 316 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | — | 329 | 283 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 55 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 237 | 335 | 378 | 713 | 141 | 258 | 17 | 11 | 321 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA | Jackson Generals | — | 147 | 132 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 51 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 250 | 322 | 356 | 678 | 106 | 380 | 35 | 9 | 307 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | ROK | ACL D-backs | — | 17 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 188 | 235 | 375 | 610 | 188 | 182 | 24 | 6 | 270 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA | Reno Aces | — | 22 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 182 | 105 | 287 | 53 | 83 | 32 | 14 | 154 | -41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 64 | 59 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 222 | 424 | 646 | 254 | 171 | 33 | 6 | 276 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2015 | 23 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 110 | 102 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 248 | 294 | 542 | 98 | 248 | 26 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA MLE | Mobile BayBears | — | 32 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 129 | 129 | 194 | 323 | 65 | 134 | 28 | 0 | 111 | -39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 41 | 37 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 189 | 268 | 270 | 539 | 81 | 232 | 20 | 10 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 329 | 294 | 56 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 77 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 190 | 268 | 299 | 567 | 109 | 219 | 23 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | Jackson Generals | — | 147 | 137 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 190 | 240 | 263 | 502 | 73 | 329 | 44 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 17 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 125 | 176 | 312 | 489 | 188 | 137 | 35 | 6 | 171 | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 22 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 136 | 100 | 236 | 50 | 66 | 41 | 9 | 107 | -41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 64 | 60 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 175 | 283 | 458 | 150 | 147 | 39 | 5 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 110 | 102 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 248 | 294 | 542 | 98 | 264 | 26 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | ROK RAW | Missoula Osprey | — | 110 | 98 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 255 | 330 | 378 | 708 | 122 | 312 | 18 | 9 | 317 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 73 | 68 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 147 | 194 | 221 | 415 | 74 | 192 | 23 | 5 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 73 | 66 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 182 | 250 | 273 | 523 | 91 | 222 | 18 | 8 | 237 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 329 | 294 | 56 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 77 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 190 | 268 | 299 | 567 | 109 | 226 | 23 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ RAW | Visalia Rawhide | — | 329 | 283 | 67 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 55 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 237 | 335 | 378 | 713 | 141 | 258 | 17 | 11 | 321 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 164 | 153 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 183 | 233 | 268 | 501 | 85 | 309 | 43 | 5 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 164 | 148 | 36 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 55 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 243 | 313 | 358 | 671 | 115 | 356 | 34 | 9 | 303 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 22 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 136 | 100 | 236 | 50 | 91 | 41 | 9 | 107 | -41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA RAW | Reno Aces | — | 22 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 182 | 105 | 287 | 53 | 83 | 32 | 14 | 154 | -41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 64 | 60 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 175 | 283 | 458 | 150 | 176 | 39 | 5 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AA RAW | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 64 | 59 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 169 | 222 | 424 | 646 | 254 | 171 | 33 | 6 | 276 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 23 | ROK MLE | Missoula Osprey | — | 110 | 102 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 248 | 294 | 542 | 98 | 248 | 26 | 5 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 24 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 73 | 69 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 145 | 194 | 217 | 412 | 72 | 189 | 23 | 5 | 185 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 25 | A+ MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 329 | 295 | 56 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 77 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 190 | 268 | 298 | 566 | 108 | 219 | 23 | 8 | 251 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 26 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 164 | 153 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 183 | 233 | 268 | 501 | 85 | 309 | 43 | 5 | 223 | 37 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 27 | AAA MLE | Reno Aces | — | 22 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 136 | 100 | 236 | 50 | 66 | 41 | 9 | 107 | -41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 29 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 64 | 61 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 131 | 175 | 279 | 453 | 148 | 147 | 39 | 5 | 188 | 13 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 762 | 697 | 123 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 50 | 227 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 176 | 239 | 277 | 516 | 100 | 236 | 30 | 7 | 225 | 38 | -56 | -2 | +0 | +14 | +17 | -2.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 595 | 105 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 43 | 194 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 176 | 240 | 277 | 517 | 101 | 236 | 30 | 7 | 225 | 38 | -48 | -2 | +0 | +12 | +14 | -2.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2021 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 64 PAwOBA .272 → .188 (−84)K% 32.8% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.81% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 39.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷0.992 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.958 | 4.17% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 7.89% | ÷0.985 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.958 | 7.22% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.89% | ÷0.947 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 6.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.53% | ÷1.249 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 6.30% |
Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 150, 1B 97, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 104, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .272 → .188; ISO .254 → .158; BABIP .171 → .147. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AAAReno Aces · 22 PAwOBA .151 → .107 (−43)K% 31.8% → 42.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.82% | ÷0.970 | ×1.290 | — | — | 42.33% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.64% | ÷0.986 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.003 | 9.85% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.980 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.035 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.025 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.003 | 6.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.810 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.077 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PCL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 105, 3B 130, K 94, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .151 → .107; ISO .053 → .037; BABIP .083 → .066. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AAJackson Generals · 147 PAwOBA .298 → .229 (−69)K% 34.7% → 43.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 34.69% | ÷0.972 | ×1.220 | — | — | 43.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.16% | ÷1.003 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 5.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.68% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.86% | ÷0.982 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 27.13% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.17% | ÷1.022 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 5.16% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.145 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.70% | ÷0.954 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.07% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 96, 2B 104, 3B 129, K 94, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .298 → .229; ISO .106 → .081; BABIP .380 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 ROKACL D-backs · 17 PAwOBA .262 → .171 (−91)K% 23.5% → 33.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 33.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.940 | 3.43% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 16.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.940 | 12.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.940 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.940 | 6.11% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .262 → .171; ISO .188 → .122; BABIP .182 → .137. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 A+Visalia Rawhide · 329 PAwOBA .316 → .251 (−65)K% 16.7% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.72% | ÷0.952 | ×1.340 | — | — | 23.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.25% | ÷0.996 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 7.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 1.17% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.05% | ÷1.016 | ×0.910 | ×0.995 | ×0.978 | 18.34% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.51% | ÷1.038 | ×0.820 | ×0.995 | ×0.978 | 2.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.44% | ÷0.900 | ×0.760 | ×0.995 | ×0.978 | 0.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.39% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 3.76% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 103, 2B 108, 3B 80, K 90, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .316 → .251; ISO .141 → .115; BABIP .258 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 A+Visalia Rawhide · 41 PAwOBA .308 → .242 (−66)K% 14.6% → 19.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.63% | ÷1.020 | ×1.340 | — | — | 19.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.63% | ÷1.008 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 10.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.79% | ÷0.994 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 12.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 13.79% | ÷1.038 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.988 | 10.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.065 | ×0.760 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.134 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row CAL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 99, 2B 108, 3B 113, K 104, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .308 → .242; ISO .114 → .089; BABIP .276 → .232. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 AAMobile BayBears · 32 PAwOBA .137 → .111 (−26)K% 21.9% → 27.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.88% | ÷0.977 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 0.00% | ÷0.975 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.065 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.012 | 7.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.146 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.012 | 6.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.160 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 113, 2B 129, 3B 80, K 95, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .137 → .111; ISO .065 → .050; BABIP .160 → .134. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKMissoula Osprey · 110 PAwOBA .309 → .221 (−88)K% 18.2% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.18% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.965 | 5.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.91% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.965 | 0.63% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.965 | 17.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.965 | 6.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.965 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.965 | 0.93% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 19.5 → −3.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .309 → .221; ISO .122 → .085; BABIP .312 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).