Jeffrey MercedesSS Lake County Captains
Age 21 S/R 5'8" / 185 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
2026 ROS PROJECTION212 act + 141 ros · stats below = ROS only
wRC+†45
AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .249 / .297
PA141
HR2
K%28
BB%5
BABIP263
ISO99
MLB%0%
Value2026 · WAR
BAT: -25.8 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-26BATRUN: -0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)-0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +3.8 runs (Positional adjustment)+4POSREP: +10.0 runs (Replacement-level credit)+10REPTotal WAR: -1.30-1.3WAR
0.00.51.00.20.40.4+$6M ctrl surplus26272829303132333435
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 30
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT40
scouting grade only
POWER30
scouting grade only
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED45
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2026MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.6M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.6M
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $2M $2M +$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202217 ROKDSL CLE Blue — 137123 23721 7315 13 187259301560 114237 235 251 50 — — — — — —
202217 ROKDSL CLE Blue — 137119 30932 11205 13 252341429769 176283 158 339 117 — — — — — —
202318 ROKACL Guardians — 136127 25511 5442 10 197239276514 79286 324 225 30 — — — — — —
202318 ROKACL Guardians — 136124 37713 8312 10 298351444794 145370 236 349 125 — — — — — —
202419 ROKACL Guardians — 143130 28512 10341 12 215277315592 100271 247 253 52 — — — — — —
202419 ROKACL Guardians — 143124 35812 16231 12 282369411780 129327 1611 347 124 — — — — — —
202520 A2 teams — 356324 561323 22954 72 173234253487 80228 276 222 28 — — — — — —
202520 A2 teams — 356312 721435 33664 72 231311343654 112271 199 293 83 — — — — — —
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD21 A+CLE — 212200 36705 8663 11 180223290513 110238 314 223 29 -17 -0 +0 +2 +6 -0.9
YTD21 A+CLE — 212197 45907 11493 11 228280381660 152268 235 294 83 -4 -0 +0 +2 +6 0.4
ROS21 A+CLE 0% 141131 26512 7392 11 198249297546 99258 285 244 45 -9 -0 +0 +2 +4 -0.3
ROS21 MLBCLE 0% 11 0000 000 00 259 00 236 39 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
FULL21 A+CLE — 213201 36705 8663 11 179222289510 109237 314 223 29 -17 -0 +0 +2 +6 -0.9
TOT21 A+CLE — 353331 621217 151055 22 187233293526 106248 304 232 35 -26 -0 +0 +4 +10 -1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections   WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ
202722 MLBCLE 35% 405376 781628 221074 42 207259324583 117262 265 259 56 -20 +0 +0 +4 +11 -0.4
202823 MLBCLE 49% 470434 9219210 281215 62 212268334602 122265 266 268 64 -19 +0 +0 +5 +13 -0.1
202924 MLBCLE 53% 512471 10120212 311305 73 214270342612 127267 256 274 68 -18 +0 +0 +5 +15 0.2
203025 MLBCLE 55% 536492 10621213 331356 83 215273346619 130268 256 278 71 -18 +0 +0 +6 +15 0.4
203126 MLBCLE 56% 548502 10822213 351386 83 215274345619 129268 256 279 71 -18 +0 +0 +6 +16 0.4
202722 MLBCLE 35% 140130 27513 8371 21 208259331590 123262 266 252 51 -8 +0 +0 +2 +4 -0.2
202823 MLBCLE 49% 228211 44915 13592 31 209261332593 123266 266 261 58 -11 +0 +0 +2 +6 -0.2
202924 MLBCLE 53% 270249 531116 16693 41 213269337606 124268 266 267 62 -11 +0 +0 +3 +8 -0.1
203025 MLBCLE 55% 293270 581217 18743 42 215271344616 130268 256 270 65 -12 +0 +0 +3 +8 -0.0
203126 MLBCLE 56% 305280 601217 19773 42 214272339611 125268 256 271 65 -12 +0 +0 +3 +9 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career— — 12371141 24249528 7431612 177 212267337605 125267 266 266 62 -54 +1 +0 +13 +35 -0.5
/ 162G— — 650600 12826315 391666 94 213268342610 128268 266 266 62 -28 +0 +0 +7 +18 -0.3
Career— — 33843110 6431331765 20087440 4421 207264323587 116263 266 262 59 -157 +0 +0 +36 +96 -2.5
/ 162G— — 650597 12326312 381688 84 206263320583 114263 266 262 59 -30 +0 +0 +7 +18 -0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
202217 ROKDSL CLE Blue — 137119 30932 11205 13 252341429769 176283 158 339 117 +3 -1 — — +4 0.6
202318 ROKACL Guardians — 136124 37713 8312 10 298351444794 145370 236 349 125 +4 +0 — — +4 0.8
202419 ROKACL Guardians — 143124 35812 16231 12 282369411780 129327 1611 347 124 +4 -1 — — +4 0.7
202520 A+Lake County Captains — 4744 8012 360 00 182234364598 182167 136 264 60 -2 +0 — — +1 -0.1
202520 ALynchburg Hillcats — 309268 641423 30604 72 239323340663 101289 1910 298 86 -5 +1 — — +9 0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 gamesYRSPAHRSBAVGOBPSLGPOSFLDWARJAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10
career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA
72,8326234238305374+28+3311.611.6
/162664158+6.7+7.72.7pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17
career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA
83,2679864221297378+16+3611.011.4
/1626642013+3.2+7.32.2pk7: 12
#3Mike Mathenylast yr '06
career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA
72,830452244301351+21+317.27.2
/162664110+4.9+7.21.7pk7: 7
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13
career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA
92,7834039246289354+28+195.55.6
/162664109+6.7+4.51.3pk7: 6
#5Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19
career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA
62,4383130244299357+9+265.45.4
/16266488+2.4+7.21.5pk7: 5
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15
career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA
51,650782213260414+29-44.24.2
/162664311+11.9-1.71.7pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION
career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons
21,2382917214268343+13+60.40.5
/162664159+7.1+3.20.2pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

Scouting At Match Age Next 3 Yrs Peak 3 Yrs
Comp Age HIT PWR SPD EYE AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR AVG/OBP/SLG ISOBABIP HRSB K%BB% wRC+WAR
Jeffrey Mercedes (OGILVIE) 21 40 30 45 40 187/233/293 106248 72 30% 4% 35 -1.3 ————————— —————————
✕Jose Herrera
2018 · A 		21 42 39→40 44→40 45 203/251/289 86249 63 21% 6% 46 -2.0 203/267/293 90267 74 25% 8% 54 -1.4 206/288/299932749326%10%63-0.4
✕Arquímedes Gamboa
2019 · A 		21 42→44 38→40 48→50 44 202/264/277 75279 57 28% 7% 48 -1.9 182/258/257 75275 514 32% 9% 42 -2.3 198/284/2909229881533%10%58-0.7
✕Elvis Perez
2017 · A 		21 47 36→30 46→45 45 220/278/291 71289 27 24% 7% 57 -1.2 202/250/281 79286 55 29% 6% 43 -2.2 181/215/272912488230%4%23-1.1
✕Deivi Estrada
2022 · A 		21 45 36→30 46→50 45 208/280/278 70305 48 31% 8% 56 -1.3 185/243/254 69328 38 41% 6% 33 -2.9 146/188/204583143452%4%-7-1.2
✕Roger Tomas
2008 · A 		22 42 40→30 50→45 43 206/254/297 91260 75 24% 6% 49 -1.8 221/264/281 60281 36 21% 5% 48 -1.9 231/268/265342891620%4%44-0.6
✕Victor Duarte
2022 · A 		21 39 38→30 48→45 42 188/251/269 81260 67 29% 6% 42 -2.3 199/274/280 81291 66 31% 8% 55 -1.4 183/255/2506625161127%8%37-0.7
✕Wilfred Astudillo
2021 · A 		21 45 38→30 49→45 47 216/277/299 84266 58 20% 7% 59 -1.1 216/260/320 104258 115 21% 5% 58 -1.2 208/247/3019423912319%4%45-0.6
✕Yeiler Peguero
2019 · A 		21 41→42 36→30 46→45 40 196/241/265 69273 47 29% 6% 34 -2.8 198/240/274 76300 511 34% 5% 37 -2.7 160/188/2105025801937%3%-7-1.2
✕Abrahan Gutierrez
2021 · A 		21 44→45 40 46→40 43 215/264/301 87273 86 24% 6% 54 -1.4 227/296/326 99305 84 26% 8% 75 -0.0 220/294/315952958226%8%68-0.2
✕Gustavo Omana
2007 · A 		21 44 35→30 46→45 45 206/260/260 55257 25 20% 6% 42 -2.3 229/278/299 70274 44 17% 5% 59 -1.1 261/301/322612944012%4%76+0.0
✕Mack Chambers
2022 · A 		22 41 37→40 45→50 44 197/255/273 76263 47 26% 7% 43 -2.2 211/273/309 98276 811 25% 7% 61 -1.0 203/270/2979326081324%8%54-0.7
✕Marcus Littlewood
2013 · A 		21 40 40→45 48→45 41 198/248/289 92267 87 29% 6% 44 -2.1 199/266/305 106272 105 28% 8% 57 -1.2 209/274/32211327010425%8%62-0.4
✕Chace Numata
2014 · A 		21 45 40 48→40 45 219/270/306 87256 86 18% 6% 59 -1.1 235/286/314 79285 55 18% 6% 67 -0.5 250/301/324742973216%6%73-0.1
✕Juan Rivera
2008 · A 		21 43 40→30 41→55 40 214/248/296 82266 87 23% 4% 46 -2.0 209/247/271 62277 414 25% 4% 38 -2.6 196/233/2333626411725%4%21-1.1
✕Jeremy Arocho
2021 · A 		22 48→46 36→30 48→60 47 224/285/296 72288 310 22% 7% 62 -0.9 224/322/278 54314 226 25% 12% 75 -0.0 217/330/2614529713424%14%71-0.2
✕Yonathan Mendoza
2015 · A 		21 47 35→30 46→45 49 220/283/279 59274 28 20% 8% 56 -1.3 245/297/310 65293 46 17% 7% 70 -0.3 258/307/313563054516%6%73-0.1
✕Jose R. Flores
2009 · A 		21 46→51 38→40 49→45 44 218/268/293 75274 58 22% 6% 54 -1.4 230/280/312 82289 68 21% 6% 64 -0.8 242/290/323812905718%6%68-0.3
✕Imeldo Diaz
2019 · A 		21 44 41→40 46→45 41 216/264/307 91269 95 23% 5% 56 -1.3 228/262/305 77301 55 25% 4% 53 -1.5 232/255/291583093225%2%44-0.7
✕Franklin Navarro
2016 · A 		21 39 36→40 45→40 38 188/224/253 65249 45 26% 4% 24 -3.5 207/243/293 86289 74 29% 5% 43 -2.2 198/234/255573104036%4%27-0.7
✕Sean Rooney
2008 · A 		22 42 39→40 47→30 43 204/248/289 85252 76 22% 5% 44 -2.1 237/274/324 87302 53 22% 5% 64 -0.8 235/273/325902996223%5%60-0.5