Andrick Nava

C Nashville Sounds

Age 25 S/R 5'10" / 225 lbs AAA HR +10%K +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

Overview

AAAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#971ETA2028MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	22	AA/A+PHI	230	.259/.354/.365	3	0	63	—	.218/.288/.310
2025	23	AA/A+2 orgs	150	.197/.289/.242	0	2	29	—	.175/.242/.212
2026	24	AAA/A+MIL	106	.295/.356/.505	5	1	95	—	.258/.308/.423
2027PROJ10% MLB	25	MLBMIL	11	.226/.289/.349	0	0	81	0.0
2028PROJ42% MLB	26	MLBMIL	78	.227/.290/.352	2	1	82	0.2
2029PROJ55% MLB	27	MLBMIL	122	.226/.291/.352	3	2	82	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.6M2033Arb-2$5M2034Ext$7M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA

K%92

Whiff%49

Speed37

Z-Con%32

Max EV28

BB%23

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsBlake Swihart (age 25) · Nick Fortes (age 25) · Ruben Gotay (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†81

AVG/OBP/SLG.226 / .289 / .349

PA11

HR0

K%18

BB%9

BABIP272

ISO104

MLB%10%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 52 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT52

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE47

scouting grade only

SPEED46

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2019	17	ROK	GCL Phillies West	—	166	156	49	6	0	1	8	20	1	1	1	314	352	372	723	58	353	12	5	326	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	82	70	17	4	1	0	10	13	0	1	0	243	338	329	666	86	288	16	12	300	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	124	114	27	3	0	4	10	25	0	0	0	237	298	368	667	132	271	20	8	300	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	246	208	46	10	0	3	34	45	2	0	1	221	336	312	649	91	265	18	14	301	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	INTL	Adelaide Giants	—	118	110	32	5	0	5	8	22	0	0	1	291	339	473	812	182	325	19	7	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	74	62	13	1	0	0	11	9	1	0	1	210	338	226	564	16	245	12	15	278	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	156	135	38	9	1	3	16	31	1	0	0	281	362	430	791	148	333	20	10	346	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	79	68	12	3	0	0	10	16	0	0	0	176	282	221	503	44	226	20	13	240	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	71	64	14	3	0	0	7	13	0	2	0	219	296	266	561	47	275	18	10	263	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	68	61	18	2	0	4	5	8	1	1	1	295	358	525	883	230	286	12	7	382	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	38	34	10	3	0	1	3	11	0	0	1	294	351	471	822	176	391	29	8	354	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies West	—	166	159	37	4	0	1	5	29	1	1	1	233	261	277	537	44	276	17	3	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	82	74	15	3	1	0	6	17	0	1	0	203	263	270	533	68	250	21	7	243	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	124	117	22	2	0	3	7	34	0	0	0	188	234	282	516	94	247	27	6	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	246	221	40	8	0	3	21	59	2	0	1	181	258	258	516	77	226	24	9	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	74	65	13	1	0	0	8	11	1	0	1	200	297	215	513	15	238	15	11	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	Jersey Shore BlueClaws	—	156	141	32	7	1	3	10	40	1	0	0	227	283	355	638	128	267	26	6	272	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	Reading Fightin Phils	—	79	71	12	3	0	0	7	19	0	0	0	169	244	211	455	42	223	24	9	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	71	66	12	2	0	0	5	18	0	2	0	182	239	212	452	30	248	25	7	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	68	62	17	2	0	3	4	10	1	1	1	274	328	452	780	177	277	15	6	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	38	35	8	2	0	1	2	14	0	0	1	229	270	371	642	143	334	37	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies West	—	166	159	37	4	0	1	5	29	1	1	1	233	261	277	537	44	277	17	3	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	GCL Phillies West	—	166	156	49	6	0	1	8	20	1	1	1	314	352	372	723	58	353	12	5	326	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	206	191	38	6	1	3	13	51	0	1	0	199	250	288	538	89	252	25	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	206	184	44	7	1	4	20	38	0	1	0	239	314	353	667	114	278	18	10	300	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	364	329	59	11	0	5	31	88	2	0	2	179	254	258	513	79	227	24	9	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	364	318	78	15	0	8	42	67	2	0	2	245	337	368	705	123	286	18	12	320	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	230	206	45	8	1	3	18	51	2	0	1	218	288	311	598	92	269	22	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	230	197	51	10	1	3	27	40	2	0	1	259	354	365	719	107	304	17	12	324	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	150	137	24	5	0	0	12	37	0	2	0	175	242	212	453	36	238	25	8	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	150	132	26	6	0	0	17	29	0	2	0	197	289	242	531	45	250	19	11	251	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	106	97	25	4	0	4	6	24	1	1	2	258	308	423	730	165	300	23	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	106	95	28	5	0	5	8	19	1	1	2	295	356	505	861	211	319	18	8	372	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	17	ROK MLE	GCL Phillies West	—	166	159	37	4	0	1	5	29	1	1	1	233	261	277	537	44	276	17	3	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	206	191	38	6	1	3	13	51	0	1	0	199	250	288	538	89	248	25	6	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	364	328	59	11	0	5	31	88	2	0	2	180	254	259	513	79	226	24	9	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	230	208	45	8	1	3	18	51	2	0	1	216	288	308	595	91	258	22	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	150	137	24	5	0	0	12	37	0	2	0	175	242	212	453	36	235	25	8	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	106	98	25	4	0	4	6	24	1	1	2	255	308	418	726	163	297	23	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	22	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	230	208	45	8	1	3	18	51	2	0	1	216	288	308	595	91	258	22	8	261	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	150	137	24	5	0	0	12	37	0	2	0	175	242	212	453	36	235	25	8	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	106	98	25	4	0	4	6	24	1	1	2	255	308	418	726	163	297	23	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIL	10%	200	182	42	8	1	4	14	45	2	3	1	228	291	351	642	123	277	22	7	288	81	-5	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIL	10%	11	10	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	226	289	349	638	124	272	18	9	286	81	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIL	42%	183	166	38	7	1	4	13	41	2	3	1	229	292	354	646	125	277	22	7	290	82	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIL	55%	223	203	47	9	1	5	16	50	2	3	1	229	293	354	647	125	277	22	7	290	82	-5	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIL	61%	250	228	53	10	1	6	18	57	2	3	1	228	292	352	644	124	277	23	7	289	82	-5	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.4
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIL	62%	259	236	54	10	1	6	19	60	2	2	1	226	291	348	639	122	277	23	7	287	80	-6	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIL	63%	265	241	55	10	1	6	20	62	2	1	1	224	289	344	632	119	275	23	8	284	78	-7	-0	-2	+5	+6	0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	MIL	64%	240	219	49	9	1	5	17	57	2	1	1	220	284	334	617	114	272	24	7	278	74	-7	-0	-3	+4	+5	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIL	42%	78	71	16	3	0	2	6	18	1	1	0	227	290	352	642	125	273	23	8	288	82	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIL	55%	122	111	24	4	0	3	9	28	1	2	1	226	291	352	643	126	273	23	7	288	82	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIL	61%	152	139	32	5	1	4	11	35	1	2	1	225	290	350	640	125	273	23	7	287	82	-3	+0	-0	+3	+3	0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIL	62%	161	147	34	6	1	4	12	37	1	1	1	224	289	347	635	123	272	23	7	285	80	-4	-0	-1	+3	+3	0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIL	63%	167	152	35	6	1	4	12	39	1	1	1	222	286	342	628	120	271	23	7	282	78	-4	-0	-1	+3	+4	0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	MIL	64%	153	140	29	5	0	3	11	36	1	1	0	218	281	332	613	114	268	24	7	276	74	-5	+0	-2	+3	+3	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	833	760	170	29	3	20	61	193	6	8	4	224	287	349	635	125	272	23	7	284	67	-20	+0	-4	+15	+18	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	133	23	2	16	48	151	5	6	3	224	288	351	639	126	272	23	7	284	67	-16	+0	-3	+12	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	2748	2508	545	97	8	50	196	631	19	20	13	217	279	322	601	105	268	23	7	267	67	-37	+0	-7	+27	+33	1.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	593	129	23	2	12	46	149	4	5	3	218	278	324	602	106	268	23	7	267	67	-16	+0	-3	+12	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAANashville Sounds · 68 PAwOBA .371 → .325 (−46)K% 11.8% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.76%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	14.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.35%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.033	5.24%
HBP% /PA	1.47%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.43%
Singles /BIP	22.64%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.048	×1.033	22.80%
Doubles /BIP	3.77%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.048	×1.033	3.39%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.048	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.55%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.033	5.46%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.048.

Result: wOBA .371 → .325; ISO .230 → .175; BABIP .286 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 38 PAwOBA .354 → .278 (−76)K% 28.9% → 36.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.95%	÷1.000	×1.270	—	—	36.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.89%	÷1.000	×0.710	—	×0.978	5.48%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×0.978	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.09%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.978	23.47%
Doubles /BIP	13.04%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×0.978	10.33%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.850	—	×0.978	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.35%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.978	3.40%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .354 → .278; ISO .176 → .133; BABIP .391 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAReading Fightin Phils · 79 PAwOBA .238 → .211 (−27)K% 20.3% → 24.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.25%	÷1.016	×1.220	—	—	24.31%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.66%	÷0.982	×0.700	—	×1.012	9.14%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.850	—	×1.012	0.00%
Singles /BIP	17.31%	÷0.968	×0.970	×1.007	×1.012	17.68%
Doubles /BIP	5.77%	÷1.004	×0.860	×1.007	×1.012	5.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.959	×0.950	×1.007	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.036	×0.780	—	×1.012	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 107, 1B 94, 2B 101, 3B 92, K 103, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .238 → .211; ISO .044 → .039; BABIP .226 → .223. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Wisconsin Timber Rattlers · 71 PAwOBA .257 → .210 (−47)K% 18.3% → 24.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.31%	÷0.943	×1.270	—	—	24.65%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.86%	÷0.965	×0.710	—	×0.988	7.17%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×0.988	0.00%
Singles /BIP	21.57%	÷1.023	×0.920	×1.040	×0.988	19.93%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷1.013	×0.810	×1.040	×0.988	4.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.850	×1.040	×0.988	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.246	×0.800	—	×0.988	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 149, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 89, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.040.

Result: wOBA .257 → .210; ISO .047 → .037; BABIP .275 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 156 PAwOBA .346 → .272 (−73)K% 19.9% → 25.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.87%	÷1.023	×1.310	—	—	25.45%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.26%	÷0.972	×0.600	—	×0.998	6.32%
HBP% /PA	0.64%	—	×0.770	—	×0.998	0.49%
Singles /BIP	24.04%	÷1.035	×0.870	×0.974	×0.998	19.62%
Doubles /BIP	8.65%	÷1.000	×0.780	×0.974	×0.998	6.56%
Triples /BIP	0.96%	÷0.946	×0.850	×0.974	×0.998	0.84%
Home runs /BIP	2.88%	÷0.926	×0.880	—	×0.998	2.73%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 107, 2B 100, 3B 89, K 105, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.

Result: wOBA .346 → .272; ISO .148 → .129; BABIP .333 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 74 PAwOBA .272 → .238 (−34)K% 12.2% → 15.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.16%	÷0.974	×1.220	—	—	15.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.86%	÷1.013	×0.700	—	×1.027	10.55%
HBP% /PA	1.35%	—	×0.850	—	×1.027	1.18%
Singles /BIP	22.64%	÷0.997	×0.970	×0.980	×1.027	22.17%
Doubles /BIP	1.89%	÷1.022	×0.860	×0.980	×1.027	1.60%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.983	×0.950	×0.980	×1.027	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.137	×0.780	—	×1.027	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 99, 2B 104, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.

Result: wOBA .272 → .238; ISO .016 → .014; BABIP .245 → .238. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 246 PAwOBA .297 → .234 (−62)K% 18.3% → 24.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.29%	÷0.993	×1.310	—	—	24.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.82%	÷0.973	×0.600	—	×1.012	8.63%
HBP% /PA	0.81%	—	×0.770	—	×1.012	0.63%
Singles /BIP	20.25%	÷1.006	×0.870	×1.001	×1.012	17.73%
Doubles /BIP	6.13%	÷1.034	×0.780	×1.001	×1.012	4.69%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.071	×0.850	×1.001	×1.012	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.84%	÷0.858	×0.880	—	×1.012	1.91%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 101, 2B 107, 3B 114, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.

Result: wOBA .297 → .234; ISO .091 → .082; BABIP .265 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AClearwater Threshers · 124 PAwOBA .292 → .235 (−57)K% 20.2% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.16%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	27.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.06%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.015	5.65%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.47%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.000	×1.015	20.98%
Doubles /BIP	3.37%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.000	×1.015	2.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.000	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.49%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.015	3.65%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.

Result: wOBA .292 → .235; ISO .132 → .100; BABIP .271 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Chris Widger'95-'06 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,998 PA	3.0	1,998	55	10	227*	283*	381*	+33	-0	3.6	4.1
/162	664	18	3	+11.1	-0.2	1.2	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	1.3	844	18	7	227	287	348	+15	+16	1.8	1.8
/162	664	14	5	+11.9	+12.6	1.4	pk7: 2
#4Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
/162	664	11	1	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2
#5Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#6Andy Allanson'86-'95 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	16	23	238*	283*	326*	+29	-0	0.3	0.5
/162	664	7	9	+11.6	-0.1	0.1	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Andrick Nava (OGILVIE)	25	52	37	46	47	226/289/348	122	277	2	2	22%	7%	81	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Blake Swihart 2017 · MLB	25	53→54	42→45	47→45	47	256/311/365	109	321	9	8	22%	7%	92	+0.7	206/266/309	103	279	10	9	28%	7%	63	-1.4	173/238/282	110	233	14	7	31%	8%	46	-0.9
✕Nick Fortes 2022 · MLB	25	44→45	45	47→45	46	220/285/339	119	256	13	7	20%	6%	77	-0.3	226/286/350	124	256	14	8	18%	6%	80	-0.1	234/282/341	108	262	10	1	15%	4%	77	-0.2
✕Ruben Gotay 2008 · MLB	25	50→49	45	43→50	47	244/299/370	126	288	12	9	20%	7%	88	+0.5	239/325/365	126	299	11	6	22%	11%	98	+1.2	229/334/347	118	295	10	1	23%	13%	95	+0.6
✕Manuel Bobadilla 2009 · AAA	25	47	44→40	45	50	230/308/342	112	285	12	5	23%	9%	86	+0.3	234/304/337	103	291	10	6	22%	8%	83	+0.1	231/301/321	89	285	8	3	20%	8%	76	-0.2
✕Tzu-Wei Lin 2019 · MLB	25	51	41→45	45→50	46	242/293/348	106	305	7	9	22%	7%	81	-0.1	224/275/324	100	304	8	12	27%	6%	69	-0.9	191/250/279	89	265	8	15	30%	7%	47	-0.9
✕Luis Sardinas 2019 · MLB	26	52→57	41→40	44→55	42	253/285/348	95	297	9	9	19%	4%	78	-0.3	224/269/314	90	272	8	7	20%	5%	64	-1.3	201/246/251	50	247	2	2	18%	5%	41	-1.3
✕Andrew Knapp 2018 · MLB	26	52→56	44→45	45→40	46	246/311/365	119	333	10	4	28%	8%	92	+0.7	225/312/341	116	325	10	5	30%	11%	88	+0.4	184/272/276	91	285	8	1	35%	9%	59	-0.5
✕Jose Herrera 2022 · AAA	25	44	44→40	49→40	50	218/298/333	115	290	11	6	28%	10%	80	-0.1	224/293/308	84	290	7	4	23%	9%	72	-0.7	219/289/282	62	279	4	1	21%	8%	63	-0.6
✕Luis Torrens 2021 · MLB	25	48→49	44→50	43→40	45	238/288/357	119	289	11	3	22%	6%	82	-0.0	233/289/387	154	300	18	3	28%	7%	90	+0.6	235/293/375	140	282	15	2	22%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Griff Erickson 2013 · AA	25	47→50	42→45	44→40	51	227/296/336	109	276	9	4	21%	9%	80	-0.1	212/281/339	127	267	13	4	25%	8%	76	-0.4	193/264/322	129	238	15	1	25%	8%	64	-0.5
✕Rob Bowen 2006 · MLB	25	49	44→45	42→40	47	237/309/358	121	315	12	4	27%	8%	90	+0.6	231/310/363	132	321	13	5	29%	10%	92	+0.7	228/329/367	139	315	14	2	29%	12%	101	+0.3
✕Andrew Knizner 2020 · MLB	25	50	47→50	47→40	46	251/303/379	129	282	15	5	18%	6%	93	+0.8	223/294/333	110	269	11	5	21%	7%	79	-0.2	229/296/347	118	278	13	3	22%	6%	83	+0.0
✕Jason Jaramillo 2010 · MLB	27	51→54	41→45	45→40	47	246/299/346	100	292	9	3	19%	6%	83	+0.1	221/276/308	87	269	7	5	20%	6%	66	-1.1	205/262/267	62	255	4	3	20%	6%	50	-1.0
✕J.R. Towles 2009 · MLB	25	46→53	47→50	44→50	46	233/307/373	140	269	15	10	20%	6%	94	+0.9	218/299/349	131	257	13	8	20%	7%	86	+0.3	201/284/313	112	235	10	6	18%	7%	71	-0.3
✕Luke Waddell 2023 · AA	25	48→52	44→40	44→50	50	236/295/353	117	269	12	9	18%	7%	84	+0.1	233/305/320	87	274	6	15	16%	8%	80	-0.2	231/304/305	74	273	4	15	16%	8%	74	-0.4
✕Rafael Marchán 2024 · MLB	25	48	40→45	45→40	50	224/294/321	96	254	6	5	14%	7%	76	-0.4	219/289/326	107	253	11	5	18%	8%	76	-0.4	189/259/274	85	216	11	1	18%	7%	53	-0.6
✕Bruce Maxwell 2017 · MLB	26	49→48	43→45	43→30	47	242/297/353	111	298	11	3	22%	7%	84	+0.2	234/297/354	120	305	12	3	25%	8%	84	+0.2	228/294/348	120	295	13	0	26%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Cristhian Adames 2016 · MLB	25	55→57	39→45	45→50	44	263/302/349	86	312	7	11	18%	5%	84	+0.1	233/283/333	100	282	8	8	20%	6%	74	-0.5	221/271/339	118	268	11	5	21%	6%	70	-0.6
✕Tomás Telis 2017 · MLB	26	56→62	40→45	47→45	45	271/307/367	96	304	8	7	14%	4%	91	+0.6	259/295/361	102	289	8	6	13%	4%	84	+0.2	265/297/366	101	292	8	4	12%	3%	85	+0.1
✕JD Closser 2005 · MLB	25	55	43→50	48→45	47	266/321/380	113	315	10	7	19%	6%	99	+1.3	232/307/372	140	273	14	7	20%	10%	93	+0.8	211/292/350	139	249	15	6	21%	10%	81	-0.0

Andrick Nava

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps