Luke Waddell
SS Columbus Clingstones| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AAAATL | 464 | .235/.320/.322 | 2 | 12 | 57 | — | .209/.276/.273 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/A+ATL | 409 | .263/.360/.331 | 1 | 5 | 67 | — | .239/.303/.290 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAATL | 507 | .227/.313/.349 | 10 | 11 | 49 | — | .190/.251/.288 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 29 | MLBATL | 3 | .230/.290/.317 | 0 | 0 | 72 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ23% MLB | 30 | MLBATL | 48 | .228/.288/.314 | 0 | 1 | 71 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 33 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 161 | 212 | 161 | 373 | 185 | 12 | 6 | 179 | -11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Rome Braves | — | 78 | 69 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 304 | 377 | 580 | 956 | 275 | 294 | 17 | 9 | 411 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | INTL | Peoria Javelinas | — | 71 | 61 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 311 | 400 | 393 | 793 | 82 | 352 | 11 | 13 | 357 | 128 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 187 | 162 | 44 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 272 | 366 | 370 | 736 | 99 | 302 | 12 | 12 | 336 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 131 | 104 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 221 | 354 | 279 | 633 | 58 | 247 | 11 | 15 | 293 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA | Mississippi Braves | — | 446 | 372 | 108 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 65 | 57 | 3 | 26 | 9 | 290 | 400 | 403 | 803 | 113 | 319 | 13 | 15 | 362 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 464 | 404 | 95 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 41 | 64 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 235 | 320 | 322 | 642 | 87 | 270 | 14 | 9 | 291 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 380 | 324 | 88 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 46 | 47 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 272 | 369 | 340 | 708 | 68 | 310 | 12 | 12 | 324 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ | Rome Emperors | — | 29 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 154 | 241 | 231 | 472 | 77 | 200 | 21 | 10 | 223 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA | Columbus Clingstones | — | 507 | 444 | 101 | 22 | 1 | 10 | 49 | 52 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 227 | 313 | 349 | 662 | 122 | 233 | 10 | 10 | 297 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 33 | 32 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 156 | 182 | 156 | 338 | 175 | 15 | 3 | 152 | -11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | Rome Braves | — | 78 | 71 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 268 | 325 | 535 | 860 | 268 | 267 | 23 | 6 | 351 | 124 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 187 | 170 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 241 | 306 | 329 | 636 | 88 | 276 | 14 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 131 | 111 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 225 | 323 | 279 | 602 | 54 | 246 | 14 | 11 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 446 | 390 | 100 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 47 | 67 | 3 | 26 | 9 | 256 | 341 | 362 | 702 | 105 | 282 | 15 | 11 | 314 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 464 | 417 | 87 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 80 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 209 | 276 | 273 | 550 | 65 | 249 | 17 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 380 | 342 | 86 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 58 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 251 | 316 | 304 | 620 | 53 | 290 | 15 | 7 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | A+ MLE | Rome Emperors | — | 29 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 138 | 111 | 249 | 37 | 140 | 28 | 7 | 138 | -20 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 507 | 462 | 88 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 63 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 190 | 251 | 288 | 538 | 97 | 198 | 12 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 182 | 169 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 225 | 272 | 391 | 663 | 166 | 234 | 21 | 5 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 182 | 161 | 45 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 25 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 280 | 356 | 429 | 784 | 149 | 295 | 14 | 10 | 348 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 187 | 170 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 241 | 306 | 329 | 636 | 88 | 275 | 14 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA RAW | Mississippi Braves | — | 187 | 162 | 44 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 272 | 366 | 370 | 736 | 99 | 302 | 12 | 12 | 336 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 577 | 501 | 125 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 61 | 85 | 5 | 29 | 10 | 250 | 337 | 343 | 680 | 94 | 280 | 15 | 11 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 577 | 476 | 131 | 18 | 3 | 8 | 85 | 72 | 5 | 29 | 10 | 275 | 390 | 376 | 766 | 101 | 303 | 12 | 15 | 346 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 464 | 417 | 87 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 80 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 209 | 276 | 273 | 550 | 65 | 251 | 17 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA RAW | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 464 | 404 | 95 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 41 | 64 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 235 | 320 | 322 | 642 | 87 | 270 | 14 | 9 | 291 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 409 | 370 | 89 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 66 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 241 | 303 | 292 | 595 | 51 | 286 | 16 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 409 | 350 | 92 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 49 | 53 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 263 | 360 | 331 | 691 | 69 | 302 | 13 | 12 | 317 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 507 | 462 | 88 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 63 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 190 | 251 | 288 | 538 | 97 | 201 | 12 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA RAW | Columbus Clingstones | — | 507 | 444 | 101 | 22 | 1 | 10 | 49 | 52 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 227 | 313 | 349 | 662 | 122 | 233 | 10 | 10 | 297 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 182 | 169 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 225 | 272 | 391 | 663 | 166 | 240 | 21 | 5 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | AA MLE | Mississippi Braves | — | 187 | 169 | 41 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 27 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 243 | 306 | 331 | 638 | 89 | 276 | 14 | 8 | 286 | 80 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 577 | 506 | 125 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 61 | 85 | 5 | 29 | 10 | 247 | 337 | 340 | 677 | 93 | 274 | 15 | 11 | 306 | 93 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 464 | 422 | 87 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 80 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 206 | 276 | 270 | 546 | 64 | 249 | 17 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 409 | 373 | 89 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 66 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 239 | 303 | 290 | 592 | 51 | 279 | 16 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 507 | 465 | 88 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 63 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 189 | 251 | 286 | 537 | 97 | 198 | 12 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | AAA MLE | Gwinnett Stripers | — | 464 | 422 | 87 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 80 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 206 | 276 | 270 | 546 | 64 | 249 | 17 | 6 | 252 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 409 | 373 | 89 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 29 | 66 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 239 | 303 | 290 | 592 | 51 | 279 | 16 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AA MLE | Columbus Clingstones | — | 507 | 465 | 88 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 31 | 63 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 189 | 251 | 286 | 537 | 97 | 198 | 12 | 6 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | ATL | 2% | 380 | 348 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 58 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 230 | 290 | 317 | 607 | 87 | 264 | 15 | 7 | 275 | 72 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | ATL | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 230 | 290 | 317 | 607 | 87 | 264 | 0 | 0 | 275 | 72 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | ATL | 23% | 212 | 194 | 45 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 34 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 228 | 288 | 314 | 603 | 86 | 264 | 16 | 7 | 273 | 71 | -7 | +0 | -2 | +2 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | ATL | 23% | 48 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 228 | 288 | 314 | 603 | 86 | 264 | 17 | 6 | 273 | 71 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 48 | 44 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 205 | 271 | 250 | 521 | 45 | 250 | 17 | 6 | 273 | 70 | -2 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 596 | 122 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 108 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 205 | 272 | 250 | 522 | 45 | 250 | 17 | 6 | 273 | 70 | -22 | +3 | -6 | +7 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2693 | 2425 | 547 | 94 | 10 | 33 | 199 | 417 | 31 | 69 | 26 | 226 | 293 | 313 | 606 | 88 | 256 | 15 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -12 | +0 | -2 | +4 | +8 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 132 | 23 | 2 | 8 | 48 | 101 | 7 | 17 | 6 | 226 | 292 | 313 | 605 | 87 | 256 | 16 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -22 | +0 | -4 | +7 | +14 | -0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAColumbus Clingstones · 507 PAwOBA .294 → .241 (−53)K% 10.3% → 12.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.26% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 12.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.968 | 6.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.18% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.968 | 0.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.35% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.961 | ×0.968 | 14.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.61% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.961 | ×0.968 | 4.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.961 | ×0.968 | 0.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.55% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 1.98% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .294 → .241; ISO .122 → .102; BABIP .233 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 380 PAwOBA .320 → .278 (−42)K% 12.4% → 15.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.37% | ÷0.976 | ×1.200 | — | — | 15.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.11% | ÷1.140 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.91% | ÷0.968 | ×0.930 | ×1.023 | ×1.003 | 24.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.14% | ÷1.162 | ×0.830 | ×1.023 | ×1.003 | 4.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.023 | ×1.003 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.36% | ÷0.961 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.26% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 94, 2B 132, 3B 80, K 95, BB 128 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .320 → .278; ISO .068 → .055; BABIP .310 → .290. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Rome Emperors · 29 PAwOBA .218 → .138 (−80)K% 20.7% → 27.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.69% | ÷0.983 | ×1.310 | — | — | 27.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.34% | ÷1.020 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.958 | 5.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.098 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.958 | 7.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.173 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.958 | 6.37% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.075 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.819 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.958 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 64, 1B 120, 2B 135, 3B 115, K 97, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 22.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .218 → .138; ISO .077 → .047; BABIP .200 → .140. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 464 PAwOBA .288 → .252 (−36)K% 13.8% → 17.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.79% | ÷0.958 | ×1.200 | — | — | 17.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.84% | ÷1.001 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 6.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.16% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.977 | ×0.930 | ×0.976 | ×1.018 | 18.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.18% | ÷0.961 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×1.018 | 5.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.18% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×0.976 | ×1.018 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.59% | ÷0.968 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 0.43% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 95, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 92, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .288 → .252; ISO .087 → .073; BABIP .270 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAMississippi Braves · 446 PAwOBA .358 → .314 (−44)K% 12.8% → 15.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.78% | ÷1.034 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.57% | ÷0.943 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 10.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.67% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.56% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.35% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 23.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.08% | ÷0.997 | ×0.910 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 4.51% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.32% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.974 | ×0.998 | 0.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.54% | ÷0.793 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.56% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 59, 1B 103, 2B 99, 3B 80, K 107, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .358 → .314; ISO .113 → .113; BABIP .319 → .282. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 131 PAwOBA .296 → .278 (−18)K% 11.5% → 13.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.45% | ÷1.005 | ×1.200 | — | — | 13.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.27% | ÷0.997 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 10.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.53% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.35% | ÷0.968 | ×0.930 | ×1.005 | ×1.033 | 21.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.25% | ÷0.933 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×1.033 | 2.08% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.25% | ÷0.999 | ×0.970 | ×1.005 | ×1.033 | 2.27% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.984 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 94, 2B 87, 3B 100, K 101, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .296 → .278; ISO .058 → .062; BABIP .247 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAMississippi Braves · 187 PAwOBA .327 → .286 (−41)K% 11.8% → 14.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.76% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.76% | ÷0.985 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 8.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.53% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.86% | ÷1.020 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×1.012 | 21.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.032 | ×0.910 | ×1.009 | ×1.012 | 6.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×1.009 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.43% | ÷0.927 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.25% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 104, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .327 → .286; ISO .099 → .090; BABIP .302 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Rome Braves · 78 PAwOBA .404 → .351 (−54)K% 16.7% → 23.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.67% | ÷0.957 | ×1.350 | — | — | 23.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.97% | ÷0.991 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.28% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 1.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.001 | ×0.910 | ×1.011 | ×0.998 | 22.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 1.79% | ÷0.982 | ×0.830 | ×1.011 | ×0.998 | 1.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.011 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.71% | ÷0.864 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 10.27% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 80, K 91, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .404 → .351; ISO .275 → .252; BABIP .294 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).