Jeshua Mendez

C DSL Arizona Black

Age 19 R/R 6'0" / 175 lbs ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1623ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Arizona B…	62	.170/.350/.234	0	6	24	—	.120/.267/.160
2026	18	ROKDSL Arizona B…	33	.154/.312/.269	1	2	8	—	.071/.188/.071
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBARI	143	.208/.288/.285	1	3	65	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBARI	29	.218/.298/.310	0	1	69	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBARI	85	.222/.302/.321	1	2	73	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

BB%85

Chase%69

Speed68

Whiff%66

K%53

Z-Con%36

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsAndrés Nolaya (age 19) · Pablo Aliendo (age 20) · Javier Herrera (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 29 proj PA

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .285 / .283

PA29

HR0

K%28

BB%9

ISO78

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$20M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2037	Arb-2	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	62	47	8	3	0	0	12	13	1	6	1	170	350	234	584	64	222	21	19	282	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	33	26	4	0	0	1	5	9	1	2	0	154	312	269	582	115	176	27	15	273	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	62	50	6	2	0	0	9	16	1	6	1	120	267	160	427	40	149	26	15	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	33	28	2	0	0	0	3	11	1	2	0	71	188	71	259		116	33	9	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	62	50	6	2	0	0	9	16	1	6	1	120	267	160	427	40	167	26	15	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	—	62	47	8	3	0	0	12	13	1	6	1	170	350	234	584	64	222	21	19	282	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	33	28	2	0	0	0	3	11	1	2	0	71	188	71	259		111	33	9	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	—	33	26	4	0	0	1	5	9	1	2	0	154	312	269	582	115	176	27	15	273	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	62	52	6	2	0	0	9	16	1	6	1	115	267	154	421	38	149	26	15	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	33	29	2	0	0	0	3	11	1	2	0	69	188	69	256		116	33	9	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	62	52	6	2	0	0	9	16	1	6	1	115	267	154	421	38	149	26	15	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	33	29	2	0	0	0	3	11	1	2	0	69	188	69	256		116	33	9	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	143	127	27	5	1	1	13	40	2	3	0	208	288	285	573	78	289	28	9	264	65	-6	+1	+0	+3	+3	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	ARI	34%	84	75	17	3	1	1	8	23	1	2	0	212	292	297	590	86	291	27	10	271	69	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	ARI	48%	175	155	33	6	1	2	16	47	2	4	1	215	296	308	604	93	292	27	9	277	73	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	ARI	54%	286	254	56	10	2	4	26	77	4	7	1	218	299	317	616	99	293	27	9	281	77	-8	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2031	23	MLB MLE	ARI	57%	380	338	75	14	2	6	34	101	5	9	2	221	301	326	627	105	294	27	9	285	79	-9	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.7
2032	24	MLB MLE	ARI	57%	439	391	87	16	3	7	39	115	6	10	2	223	303	333	636	110	294	26	9	289	82	-10	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.9
2033	25	MLB MLE	ARI	57%	445	396	88	16	3	7	40	117	6	10	2	224	304	335	639	111	295	26	9	290	82	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2034	26	MLB MLE	ARI	56%	445	396	89	16	3	8	40	117	6	10	2	224	304	336	640	112	294	26	9	290	83	-9	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.0
2035	27	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	445	397	88	16	3	7	40	117	5	10	2	223	303	333	636	111	294	26	9	289	82	-10	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.9
2036	28	MLB MLE	ARI	59%	445	397	88	16	3	7	40	118	5	8	2	221	301	328	629	108	293	27	9	286	80	-11	+1	-1	+8	+10	0.7
2037	29	MLB MLE	ARI	61%	445	397	86	16	2	7	40	120	5	6	2	218	298	322	620	104	291	27	9	282	77	-12	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.5
2038	30	MLB MLE	ARI	62%	445	398	85	16	2	6	39	121	5	5	1	215	294	314	608	99	289	27	9	277	74	-14	+1	-2	+8	+10	0.2
2039	31	MLB MLE	ARI	63%	426	381	80	14	2	6	37	117	5	2	1	211	289	304	593	93	286	27	9	271	70	-15	+0	-3	+8	+9	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	ARI	34%	29	26	5	1	0	0	3	8	0	1	0	218	298	310	609	92	301	28	10	278	69	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	ARI	48%	85	76	17	3	1	1	8	23	1	2	0	222	302	321	623	99	302	27	9	284	73	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	ARI	54%	155	138	31	6	1	2	14	41	2	4	1	225	305	330	635	105	303	26	9	288	77	-4	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.2
2031	23	MLB CTX	ARI	57%	215	191	44	9	2	3	19	57	3	5	1	227	307	338	645	110	304	27	9	292	79	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	ARI	57%	248	221	51	10	2	4	22	65	3	6	1	230	309	345	654	115	305	26	9	296	82	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	ARI	57%	251	223	51	10	2	4	23	66	3	6	1	230	310	347	656	116	305	26	9	297	82	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2034	26	MLB CTX	ARI	56%	251	223	51	10	2	4	23	66	3	6	1	230	310	348	657	117	305	26	9	297	83	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	247	220	51	10	2	4	22	65	3	5	1	229	308	345	653	116	304	26	9	295	82	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2036	28	MLB CTX	ARI	59%	263	234	54	11	2	4	24	70	3	5	1	227	306	340	646	113	303	27	9	293	80	-6	+1	-0	+5	+6	0.4
2037	29	MLB CTX	ARI	61%	271	242	55	11	2	4	24	73	3	4	1	224	303	333	637	109	301	27	9	289	77	-7	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2038	30	MLB CTX	ARI	62%	277	247	55	11	2	4	25	75	3	3	1	221	300	325	625	104	299	27	9	284	74	-9	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.1
2039	31	MLB CTX	ARI	63%	269	240	52	10	2	3	24	74	3	1	1	217	294	315	609	98	295	28	9	278	70	-10	-0	-2	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2561	2281	517	102	20	37	231	683	30	48	10	227	306	338	644	111	306	27	9	290	77	-67	+6	-4	+46	+55	3.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	131	26	5	9	59	173	8	12	3	226	307	335	642	109	305	27	9	290	77	-17	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4584	4079	885	162	27	68	414	1225	57	92	19	217	298	320	618	103	291	27	9	282	77	-117	+10	-7	+80	+97	6.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	126	23	4	10	59	174	8	13	3	218	299	324	623	106	292	27	9	282	77	-17	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Arizona Black · 33 PAwOBA .275 → .180 (−95)K% 27.3% → 33.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.27%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	33.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	15.15%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.995	10.55%
HBP% /PA	3.03%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	2.11%
Singles /BIP	17.65%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×0.995	11.94%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.995	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.88%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.995	2.75%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .275 → .180; ISO .115 → .057; BABIP .176 → .116. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Arizona Black · 62 PAwOBA .286 → .204 (−81)K% 21.0% → 25.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.97%	÷0.991	×1.220	—	—	25.81%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.35%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×1.008	13.87%
HBP% /PA	1.61%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.14%
Singles /BIP	14.71%	÷0.988	×0.680	—	×1.008	10.20%
Doubles /BIP	8.82%	÷0.965	×0.600	—	×1.008	5.52%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.959	×0.600	—	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.141	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 98, 2B 93, 3B 92, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .286 → .204; ISO .064 → .043; BABIP .222 → .149. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
#5Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	3.9	2,591	39	48	220	297	325	+46	+32	5.5	4.9
/162	664	10	12	+11.9	+8.2	1.4	pk7: 4
#6Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
/162	664	15	4	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jeshua Mendez (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	206/285/283	77	289	0	1	28%	9%	65	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andrés Nolaya 2024 · A	19	39	36→45	47→50	46	183/256/246	64	263	3	12	30%	8%	45	-2.7	196/270/269	73	284	4	17	30%	8%	55	-1.9	201/281/282	81	280	7	21	28%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	38	36→50	50→45	44	181/261/246	65	268	3	13	31%	8%	47	-2.5	202/271/300	98	303	9	5	34%	6%	63	-1.3	206/275/350	144	296	17	5	34%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Javier Herrera 2024 · A	19	38	39→40	51→55	45	184/262/268	84	272	6	10	32%	9%	53	-2.1	204/298/290	86	279	5	15	26%	11%	71	-0.8	210/307/297	87	289	5	18	26%	11%	74	-0.2
✕Juan Villavicencio 2024 · A	19	36→44	38→50	51→55	47	174/251/254	80	234	5	13	26%	8%	45	-2.7	189/262/280	91	279	7	14	32%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Jason Lopez 2017 · A	19	39	37→50	49→45	46	189/256/259	71	249	5	11	25%	7%	48	-2.5	203/254/307	104	277	9	7	29%	6%	57	-1.8	192/240/305	113	271	11	8	32%	6%	50	-1.0
✕Yordany De Los Santos 2024 · A	19	41→40	37→45	53→60	45	189/276/261	72	296	4	19	34%	9%	57	-1.8	210/266/317	107	310	10	28	34%	6%	65	-1.2	207/258/332	125	300	14	35	34%	5%	62	-1.0
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2022 · A	19	41→44	38→50	47→50	54	193/285/279	86	256	5	8	25%	11%	63	-1.3	188/262/304	116	277	10	9	34%	8%	61	-1.5	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→47	36→45	49→50	39	193/238/260	66	278	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	208/254/280	72	286	5	10	28%	5%	51	-2.2	233/299/360	126	304	15	8	27%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	36→44	39→50	53→55	48	177/265/262	85	249	7	11	30%	9%	53	-2.1	194/283/299	105	299	9	16	34%	10%	68	-1.0	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Jorge Alcantara 2010 · A	18	42	37→45	51→50	44	200/264/274	74	285	4	11	30%	7%	54	-2.0	207/273/305	98	302	7	11	31%	7%	64	-1.3	189/258/298	110	269	7	17	30%	7%	57	-0.6
✕Jose Rosario 2011 · A	19	41	38→40	50	42	199/262/275	76	274	5	10	28%	6%	54	-2.0	214/261/320	106	270	10	12	24%	4%	63	-1.3	230/277/334	104	276	9	10	19%	4%	68	-0.4
✕Gilberto Celestino 2018 · A	19	43→53	39→45	53→55	43	206/263/292	86	288	6	12	30%	7%	57	-1.8	220/271/312	92	287	7	10	24%	6%	65	-1.2	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→48	39→45	47→50	43	188/246/273	85	256	6	9	28%	7%	47	-2.6	195/254/294	99	297	8	8	35%	7%	55	-2.0	217/278/341	124	295	14	11	30%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Jacob Amaya 2018 · A	19	44→47	39→45	48→45	46	211/280/295	84	285	6	8	27%	8%	65	-1.2	225/304/318	93	298	6	8	24%	10%	79	-0.2	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Wendell Rijo 2015 · A	19	44→45	41→50	51→50	45	211/277/319	108	290	7	12	28%	8%	70	-0.9	206/259/297	91	291	6	11	30%	6%	57	-1.8	210/267/353	143	267	17	14	28%	6%	71	-0.5
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	39→47	39→50	48→50	51	188/277/271	84	242	6	14	24%	10%	59	-1.6	207/281/319	112	295	10	8	31%	8%	72	-0.7	227/295/375	148	296	16	4	28%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Ricardo Cova 2023 · A	19	40→50	37→45	50→55	38	194/252/265	71	279	5	10	31%	5%	47	-2.5	212/270/300	88	304	7	18	30%	6%	62	-1.4	232/278/345	113	290	9	21	23%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	41	37→40	47→45	46	194/269/265	72	268	4	7	28%	8%	55	-2.0	194/292/269	75	320	6	5	37%	9%	65	-1.2	160/270/224	63	280	5	3	40%	10%	47	-1.1
✕Daniel Lopez 2011 · A	19	42	35→45	49→60	43	194/267/256	61	260	2	12	24%	6%	52	-2.2	219/280/308	89	280	5	17	22%	6%	68	-1.0	240/299/357	117	293	6	30	19%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Cristian Hernández 2023 · A	19	40→48	38→45	51→60	39	192/252/263	71	298	6	14	36%	7%	47	-2.6	201/266/279	78	305	5	23	33%	8%	55	-1.9	217/285/319	102	301	8	34	29%	8%	69	-0.8

Jeshua Mendez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps