Eliezer Lucena

P DSL Twins

Age 19 RHP 5'11" / 165 lbs ROK

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKMIN	11	1	38	3.35	2.97	18.3%	11.2%	—	K 12.5% · BB 14.1% · FIP 3.83
2027PROJ	19	MLBMIN	21	0	22	4.90	4.90	20.6%	12.3%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBMIN	17	0	18	4.74	4.67	21.3%	11.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsBrandon Komar (age 20) · Joel Garcia (age 19) · Tyler Gray (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

K%20.6%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%8.3%

Proj IP22

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	1	38	169	31	19	0	9%	3.4	12.5%	14.1%	-1.6%	0.0%	3.35	3.83	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	1	38	169	31	19	0	9%	3.4	12.5%	14.1%	-1.6%	0.0%	3.35	3.83	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	11	1	38	169	31	19	0	9%	3.4	18.3%	11.2%	7.1%	0.0%	3.35	2.97	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	MIN	21	0	22	93	19	11	3	0%	1.0	20.6%	12.3%	8.3%	2.9%	4.90	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIN	34	0	36	150	32	17	4	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.2%	10.2%	2.9%	4.74	4.67	-0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIN	17	0	18	76	16	8	2	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.2%	10.2%	2.9%	4.74	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	74	16	8	2	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.2%	10.2%	2.9%	4.74	4.29	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	183	91	23	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.2%	10.2%	2.9%	4.74	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		11	1	38	169	21	24	0	9%	3.4	12.5%	14.1%	-1.6%	0.0%	3.35	3.83	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	5	200	897	112	126	0	9%	3.4	12.5%	14.1%	-1.6%	0.0%	3.35	3.83	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Eliezer Lucena (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	20.6%	12.3%	2.9%	—	4.67	21.3%	10.2%	36	-0.23	—	—	—
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.00	538	85
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	84
Tyler Gray R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	18.2%	11.7%	2.6%	.333	4.41	11.9%	3.6%	72	-0.08	4.41	119	83
Andinson Ferrer R 2023 · 4.72 FIP	19	SW	4.72	17.4%	13.7%	2.5%	.287	4.64	21.7%	2.1%	34	-0.08	4.04	101	81
Anderson Cardenas R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	18	SW	4.90	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.235	3.52	22.2%	8.8%	58	-1.38	3.52	129	81
Dariel Francia R 2024 · 3.84 FIP	18	SU	3.84	20.5%	14.4%	1.2%	.287	5.79	19.7%	-3.8%	65	+1.95	3.84	134	80
Jose Vasquez R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	19	SW	4.12	21.9%	13.4%	2.1%	.359	6.49	15.6%	-10.2%	66	+2.37	4.12	123	80
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	79
Joangel Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	20	SU	4.23	18.3%	11.7%	2.1%	.312	5.15	18.3%	2.5%	116	+0.92	3.93	151	79
Andre Sanchez R 2022 · 4.60 FIP	19	SU	4.60	16.7%	15.1%	1.8%	.261	5.88	12.1%	-5.1%	165	+1.28	4.60	209	79
Elvis Novas R 2022 · 4.46 FIP	19	SU	4.46	15.7%	7.7%	3.1%	.281	3.82	16.5%	8.0%	91	-0.64	3.16	144	78
Denis Reguillo R 2023 · 5.27 FIP	19	SW	5.27	17.6%	11.6%	4.0%	.358	5.19	10.7%	-8.3%	52	-0.08	3.78	109	77
Jesus Gamez R 2024 · 3.81 FIP	21	SU	3.81	25.4%	14.0%	2.0%	.321	4.28	27.2%	2.8%	77	+0.47	3.42	105	77
Ricardo Brizuela R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	19	SW	4.03	20.1%	11.6%	2.1%	.375	4.39	16.0%	7.1%	208	+0.36	3.20	246	77
Luis Gonzalez R 2024 · 3.95 FIP	19	SW	3.95	17.3%	8.4%	2.3%	.337	5.35	12.1%	3.2%	100	+1.40	2.71	234	77
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	76
Harold Cortijo R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	18	SU	4.46	19.1%	9.8%	3.1%	.309	5.64	13.5%	2.2%	73	+1.18	4.15	179	76
Kenlly Montas R 2016 · 4.03 FIP	20	SW	4.03	15.1%	11.9%	1.3%	.264	4.84	12.3%	3.8%	90	+0.81	4.03	166	76
Jormy Nivar R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SU	3.88	16.1%	12.8%	0.9%	.313	4.50	14.0%	5.3%	169	+0.62	1.98	199	76
Alix Hernandez R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	21.7%	15.6%	2.8%	.254	4.91	22.5%	10.2%	119	+0.11	3.55	170	75

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	21.1%	11.6%	1.12	4.80
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44