Luis Gonzalez
P
FCL Phillies
Age 21
RHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
ROK
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 36 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141132vR 123
ERA5.45
FIP5.45
K%11.8%
BB%10.9%
K-BB%1.0%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 11 | 11 | 51 | 212 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 4.6 | 9.6% | 2.9% | 6.7% | 1.0% | 3.71 | 3.19 | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 11 | 11 | 51 | 212 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 4.6 | 14.2% | 2.4% | 11.8% | 0.9% | 3.71 | 2.73 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 11 | 9 | 50 | 196 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 82% | 4.5 | 13.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 0.0% | 1.99 | 2.71 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 11 | 9 | 50 | 196 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 82% | 4.5 | 19.4% | 4.6% | 14.8% | 0.0% | 1.99 | 2.11 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Phillies | 10 | 2 | 33 | 134 | 34 | 9 | 2 | 20% | 3.3 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 2.5% | 4.13 | 4.06 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Phillies | 10 | 2 | 33 | 134 | 34 | 9 | 2 | 20% | 3.3 | 25.4% | 6.7% | 18.7% | 1.5% | 4.13 | 2.64 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 9 | 54 | 236 | 38 | 17 | 2 | 64% | 3.9 | 11.1% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 3.48 | 4.09 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 9 | 54 | 236 | 38 | 17 | 2 | 64% | 3.9 | 16.1% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 0.8% | 3.48 | 3.12 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | ROK | FCL Phillies | 10 | 10 | 42 | 203 | 40 | 13 | 11 | 100% | 4.2 | 13.4% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 7.6% | 7.87 | 7.15 | -1.3 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | PHI | 7 | 7 | 36 | 151 | 18 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 5.1 | 11.8% | 10.9% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 5.45 | 5.45 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.8% | 10.9% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 5.45 | 5.45 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 78 | 354 | 58 | 29 | 15 | — | — | 16.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 4.3% | 6.76 | 6.37 | -1.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | PHI | 7 | 7 | 38 | 158 | 23 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 14.8% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 5.10 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | PHI | 3 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.8% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 18 | 78 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 6.1 | 14.8% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 4.72 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 38 | 38 | 200 | 844 | 130 | 87 | 22 | 100% | 5.3 | 14.8% | 10.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 5.19 | 4.72 | +1.6 | ||
| Career | — | 56 | 41 | 230 | 981 | 123 | 64 | 25 | 73% | 4.1 | 12.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 4.11 | 4.25 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 36 | 200 | 853 | 107 | 56 | 21 | 73% | 4.1 | 12.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 4.11 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Gonzalez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.45 | 11.8% | 10.9% | 2.9% | — | 5.10 | 14.8% | 4.5% | 38 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Abel Duarte R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.84 | 12.5% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 3.93 | 13.9% | 6.7% | 79 | -0.91 | 3.19 | 127 | 94 |
| Logan Sendelbach R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.31 | 11.4% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .300 | 4.63 | 12.8% | 4.3% | 297 | -0.68 | 4.06 | 340 | 87 |
| Jeremiah Burke R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.88 | 11.9% | 9.3% | 2.9% | .330 | 3.83 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 34 | -1.05 | 3.83 | 137 | 87 |
| Ramon Santos R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.00 | 12.7% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .323 | 4.24 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 199 | -0.76 | 3.84 | 355 | 87 |
| Abel Brito R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.94 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .310 | 5.83 | 13.2% | -8.6% | 70 | +0.89 | 4.13 | 147 | 86 |
| Jonathan Heasley R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.68 | 10.5% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .297 | 4.70 | 20.0% | 11.6% | 233 | +0.02 | 3.81 | 607 | 86 |
| Jeury Espinal R 2024 · 5.08 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.08 | 11.7% | 12.6% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 114 | 85 |
| Moises Ruiz R 2025 · 5.62 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.62 | 8.7% | 12.8% | 3.0% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 104 | 84 |
| Will Childers R 2027 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.30 | 11.8% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.22 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 143 | -1.08 | 3.50 | 202 | 83 |
| Wuilberth Mendez R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.18 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 137 | 83 |
| Dillon Drabble R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.60 | 11.2% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .370 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 110 | 83 |
| Alex Romero R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.38 | 10.6% | 8.9% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.41 | 13.8% | 6.0% | 168 | +0.03 | 4.31 | 235 | 83 |
| Jace Vines R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.07 | 9.3% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .362 | 4.52 | 11.3% | 3.2% | 327 | -0.55 | 3.33 | 479 | 82 |
| Luis Mateo R 2027 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.17 | 11.4% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .315 | 5.67 | 15.0% | -1.3% | 55 | +0.50 | 4.52 | 112 | 82 |
| Luis Hernandez R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.86 | 16.7% | 14.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 6.15 | 21.4% | 4.1% | 64 | +1.29 | 4.16 | 109 | 82 |
| Jordan Geber R 2028 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 15.3% | 10.7% | 3.6% | .341 | 4.51 | 15.5% | 7.5% | 176 | -0.63 | 4.16 | 239 | 81 |
| Camilo Sanchez R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.31 | 15.2% | 14.0% | 3.1% | .289 | 7.22 | 13.9% | -0.3% | 19 | +1.91 | 3.66 | 117 | 81 |
| Benjamin Rodriguez R 2025 · 4.76 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.76 | 12.0% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .255 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.66 | 128 | 81 |
| Yoan López R 2027 · 4.74 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.74 | 12.6% | 12.9% | 2.0% | .290 | 3.92 | 22.8% | 12.1% | 154 | -0.82 | 2.16 | 377 | 81 |
| Luis Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.96 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.96 | 12.8% | 12.5% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.96 | 111 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 37 | 13.4% | 10.6% | 1.11 | 5.32 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne ('18) | 4 | 63 | 13.5% | 8.1% | 0.96 | 5.54 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |