Luis Gonzalez
P
FCL Phillies
+0.0
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'0" / 170 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.5 · 2030
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.6%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%12.6%
IP37
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2030
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Phillies Red | 11 | 11 | 51 | 212 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 9.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 3.71 | 3.21 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Phillies White | 11 | 9 | 50 | 196 | 38 | 9 | 0 | 13.2% | 5.7% | 0.0% | 1.99 | 2.71 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | FCL Phillies | 10 | 2 | 33 | 134 | 34 | 9 | 2 | 17.3% | 8.4% | 2.3% | 4.13 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Clearwater Threshers | 14 | 9 | 54 | 236 | 38 | 17 | 2 | 11.1% | 8.0% | 1.7% | 3.48 | 4.09 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | PHI | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | PHI | 38 | — | 38 | 163 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 22.7% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | PHI | 40 | — | 40 | 168 | 40 | 14 | 5 | 23.5% | 8.2% | 2.8% | 4.16 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | PHI | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 24.0% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.07 | 4.00 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | PHI | 41 | — | 41 | 175 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 24.4% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 4.00 | 3.95 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | PHI | 41 | — | 41 | 175 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 24.6% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 3.93 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | PHI | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 24.6% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 3.95 | 3.94 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | PHI | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 42 | 14 | 5 | 24.6% | 8.0% | 2.8% | 3.96 | 3.97 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | PHI | 40 | — | 40 | 167 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 24.4% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 3.99 | 4.01 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | PHI | 38 | — | 38 | 162 | 39 | 13 | 5 | 24.2% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.04 | 4.08 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 38 | 13 | 5 | 24.0% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.11 | 4.15 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 36 | 13 | 5 | 23.7% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 34 | 12 | 5 | 23.4% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.28 | 4.34 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 32 | — | 32 | 136 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.38 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 46 | 31 | 188 | 778 | 96 | 48 | 9 | 12.3% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 3.26 | 3.48 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 49 | 33 | 200 | 829 | 102 | 51 | 10 | 12.3% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 3.26 | 3.48 | +4.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Gonzalez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.09 | 23.4% | 15.1% | 119 | -0.29 | — | — | — |
| Logan Lombana R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.63 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .315 | 4.01 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 123 | -0.62 | 3.80 | 155 | 94 |
| Tyler Gray R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .333 | 4.39 | 11.9% | 3.6% | 72 | -0.10 | 4.39 | 119 | 92 |
| Austin Mason R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.41 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .289 | 4.06 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 151 | -0.35 | 3.60 | 179 | 92 |
| Brandon Komar R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.74 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .327 | 4.93 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.19 | 3.03 | 538 | 92 |
| Josnier Parra R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.53 | 15.9% | 9.8% | 2.8% | .319 | 4.37 | 9.8% | 1.9% | 70 | -0.16 | 3.79 | 102 | 92 |
| Mike Morrison R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.86 | 17.3% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .280 | 4.00 | 19.0% | 7.1% | 128 | -0.86 | 3.32 | 145 | 91 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 90 |
| Logan Gragg R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.12 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .343 | 5.21 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.09 | 4.12 | 412 | 90 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 90 |
| Jayson McKinley R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.39 | 17.5% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .308 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 134 | -0.80 | 2.36 | 173 | 89 |
| Audry Lugo R 2025 · 4.05 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.05 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .247 | 5.31 | 15.6% | -0.4% | 77 | +1.26 | 4.05 | 113 | 89 |
| Jeremy Beasley R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.71 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .273 | 4.09 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 234 | -0.62 | 3.17 | 337 | 89 |
| Andrew Bash R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.87 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 2.1% | .273 | 4.22 | 14.9% | 4.8% | 146 | +0.35 | 3.63 | 428 | 89 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 89 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.83 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.32 | 4.03 | 266 | 88 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 88 |
| Reece Karalus R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.79 | 14.8% | 4.1% | 103 | -0.00 | 4.73 | 149 | 88 |
| Brandon Beckel R 2027 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.74 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 1.8% | .250 | 4.34 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 76 | +0.60 | 3.74 | 123 | 88 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 88 |
| Luke Stofel R 2027 · 4.27 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.27 | 17.6% | 12.4% | 2.0% | .328 | 4.31 | 12.8% | 0.9% | 97 | +0.04 | 4.27 | 139 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $4M | $11M | +$7M | ||