Luis Gonzalez — OGILVIE

Luis Gonzalez P FCL Phillies

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 170 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.0 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.31

FIP5.31

K%11.8%

BB%9.8%

K-BB%2.0%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL5050

CMD3030

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	11	11	51	212	30	5	2	100%	4.6	9.6%	2.9%	6.7%	1.1%	3.71	3.27	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	11	11	51	212	30	5	2	100%	4.6	14.2%	2.4%	11.8%	0.9%	3.71	2.73	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	11	9	50	196	38	9	0	82%	4.5	13.2%	5.7%	7.4%	0.0%	1.99	2.71	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	11	9	50	196	38	9	0	82%	4.5	13.2%	5.7%	7.4%	0.0%	1.99	2.71	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	11	9	50	196	38	9	0	82%	4.5	19.4%	4.6%	14.8%	0.0%	1.99	2.11	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	10	2	33	134	34	9	2	20%	3.3	17.3%	8.4%	8.9%	2.3%	4.13	3.95	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	10	2	33	134	34	9	2	20%	3.3	17.3%	8.4%	8.9%	2.3%	4.13	3.95	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	10	2	33	134	34	9	2	20%	3.3	25.4%	6.7%	18.7%	1.5%	4.13	2.64	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	54	236	38	17	2	64%	3.9	11.1%	8.0%	3.1%	1.5%	3.48	4.01	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	9	54	236	38	17	2	64%	3.9	11.1%	8.0%	3.1%	1.5%	3.48	4.01	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	9	54	236	38	17	2	64%	3.9	16.1%	7.2%	8.9%	0.8%	3.48	3.12	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	13	12	53	256	49	20	11	92%	4.1	13.0%	9.8%	3.2%	6.0%	7.64	6.54	—
YTD	21	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	13	12	53	256	49	20	11	92%	4.1	13.0%	9.8%	3.2%	6.0%	7.64	6.54	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	PHI	13	12	53	256	49	20	11	92%	4.1	19.1%	7.8%	11.3%	4.3%	7.64	4.83	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	54	230	34	22	7	100%	5.5	14.8%	9.4%	5.4%	2.8%	5.06	4.97	-0.0
2028	23	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	56	239	40	22	7	100%	5.1	16.6%	9.0%	7.6%	2.8%	4.86	4.76	+0.1
2029	24	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	58	244	43	22	7	100%	5.8	17.7%	8.8%	8.9%	2.8%	4.71	4.63	+0.2
2030	25	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	59	247	45	22	7	100%	5.9	18.2%	8.7%	9.5%	2.8%	4.62	4.56	+0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	59	247	46	21	7	100%	5.9	18.4%	8.7%	9.8%	2.8%	4.57	4.54	+0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	PHI	10	10	58	244	45	21	7	100%	5.8	18.4%	8.7%	9.7%	2.8%	4.58	4.58	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	PHI	5	5	27	114	17	11	3	100%	5.4	14.8%	9.4%	5.4%	3.0%	5.17	5.08	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	PHI	8	8	41	173	29	16	5	100%	5.1	16.6%	9.0%	7.6%	3.0%	4.97	4.87	+0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	PHI	9	9	48	203	36	18	6	100%	5.3	17.7%	8.8%	8.9%	3.0%	4.82	4.74	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	PHI	9	9	52	220	40	19	7	100%	5.8	18.2%	8.7%	9.5%	3.0%	4.73	4.67	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	PHI	9	9	54	228	42	20	7	100%	6.0	18.4%	8.7%	9.8%	3.0%	4.68	4.65	+0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	PHI	9	9	54	228	42	20	7	100%	6.0	18.4%	8.7%	9.7%	3.0%	4.69	4.69	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	48	275	1160	205	103	35	100%	5.7	17.7%	8.8%	8.8%	3.0%	4.81	4.37	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	149	75	25	100%	5.7	17.7%	8.8%	8.8%	3.0%	4.81	4.37	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		59	43	241	1034	129	73	24	73%	4.1	12.5%	7.0%	5.4%	2.4%	4.23	4.23	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	36	200	859	107	60	20	73%	4.1	12.5%	7.0%	5.4%	2.4%	4.23	4.23	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.31	11.8%	9.8%	2.9%	—	4.78	16.4%	7.3%	169	-0.53	—	—	—
Abel Duarte R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	21	SP-	4.84	12.5%	10.3%	2.7%	.306	3.93	13.9%	6.7%	79	-0.91	3.19	127	94
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	88
Logan Sendelbach R 2015 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP	5.31	11.4%	9.2%	3.7%	.300	4.58	12.8%	4.3%	297	-0.73	4.14	340	88
Ramon Santos R 2016 · 5.00 FIP	21	SP-	5.00	12.7%	10.6%	3.0%	.323	4.18	15.6%	5.5%	199	-0.82	3.74	355	87
Jonathan Heasley R 2018 · 4.68 FIP	21	SP	4.68	10.5%	8.8%	2.5%	.297	4.70	20.0%	11.6%	233	+0.02	3.78	607	87
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	85
Elias Espino R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	21	SP-	4.14	14.3%	10.5%	1.7%	.336	5.64	17.1%	3.7%	56	+1.50	3.04	142	85
Alex Romero R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	22	SP-	4.38	10.6%	8.9%	1.9%	.314	4.68	13.8%	6.0%	168	+0.30	4.38	235	84
Jace Vines R 2016 · 5.07 FIP	21	SP	5.07	9.3%	8.3%	3.1%	.362	4.35	11.3%	3.2%	327	-0.72	3.34	479	83
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	82
Daniel Martinez R 2019 · 4.17 FIP	21	SP-	4.17	15.2%	10.4%	1.9%	.234	7.18	14.3%	1.0%	93	+3.01	3.41	242	82
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	82
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.45	19.3%	8.7%	150	-0.96	3.60	209	82
Dillon Drabble R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	21	SP-	4.60	11.2%	11.6%	1.8%	.370	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	110	82
Benjamin Rodriguez R 2019 · 4.76 FIP	20	SP	4.76	12.0%	9.8%	2.6%	.255	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	128	82
Moises Ruiz R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	8.7%	12.8%	3.0%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.57	104	81
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.14	275	81
Gerardo Salas R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	20	SP	5.00	14.0%	10.5%	3.2%	.307	4.94	17.5%	8.9%	273	-0.06	3.44	397	81
Andrew Cabezas R 2018 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	16.1%	9.4%	3.0%	.210	4.70	16.7%	6.9%	185	+0.11	4.16	300	81
Walker Lockett R 2015 · 5.40 FIP	21	SP	5.40	11.9%	8.9%	4.0%	.350	3.84	15.3%	9.9%	368	-1.56	3.11	495	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	54	16.9%	9.0%	1.09	4.78
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59