Gerardo Salas — OGILVIE

Gerardo Salas P Peoria Chiefs

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 189 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.0 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION63 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135127vR 119

ERA5.38

FIP5.38

K%15.0%

BB%10.1%

K-BB%4.9%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL4545

CMD4040

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals Blue	12	5	19	73	17	3	1	42%	1.6	15.8%	5.1%	10.7%	1.9%	2.89	3.44	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals Blue	12	5	19	73	17	3	1	42%	1.6	23.3%	4.1%	19.2%	1.4%	2.89	2.46	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Cardinals	11	10	47	185	48	8	4	91%	4.3	17.6%	5.4%	12.2%	2.9%	3.61	3.89	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Cardinals	11	10	47	185	48	8	4	91%	4.3	25.9%	4.3%	21.6%	2.2%	3.61	2.68	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	58	259	52	22	6	86%	4.1	14.0%	10.5%	3.5%	3.2%	4.19	5.00	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	58	259	52	22	6	86%	4.1	14.0%	10.5%	3.5%	3.2%	4.19	5.00	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	12	58	259	52	22	6	86%	4.1	20.1%	8.5%	11.6%	2.3%	4.19	3.79	—
2024	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	22	113	454	119	25	9	100%	5.2	19.4%	6.5%	12.9%	2.5%	2.62	3.65	—
2024	21	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	22	113	454	119	25	9	100%	5.2	19.4%	6.5%	12.9%	2.5%	2.62	3.65	—
2024	21	A RAW	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	22	113	454	119	25	9	100%	5.2	26.2%	5.5%	20.7%	2.0%	2.62	2.69	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	25	19	97	444	90	39	15	76%	3.9	15.6%	10.1%	5.5%	4.9%	8.10	5.76	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	25	19	97	444	90	39	15	76%	3.9	15.6%	10.1%	5.5%	4.9%	8.10	5.76	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Peoria Chiefs	25	19	97	444	90	39	15	76%	3.9	20.3%	8.8%	11.5%	3.4%	8.10	4.47	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	38	0	63	271	60	24	12	0%	1.6	17.0%	10.2%	6.9%	5.5%	5.17	5.99	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Peoria Chiefs	38	0	63	271	60	24	12	0%	1.6	17.0%	10.2%	6.9%	5.5%	5.17	5.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	STL	38	0	63	271	60	24	12	0%	1.7	22.1%	8.9%	13.3%	4.4%	5.17	4.78	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	STL	5	0	6	24	4	2	1	0%	1.2	15.0%	10.1%	4.9%	3.4%	5.38	5.38	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	68	295	64	26	13	—	—	21.6%	9.0%	12.6%	4.3%	5.19	5.94	-1.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	STL	100	0	104	441	74	42	15	0%	1.0	16.7%	9.6%	7.1%	3.4%	5.19	5.14	-0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	STL	101	0	106	447	79	42	15	0%	1.0	17.6%	9.3%	8.3%	3.3%	5.05	5.00	-0.5
2029	26	MLB MLE	STL	101	0	106	447	81	41	15	0%	1.0	18.1%	9.2%	8.8%	3.3%	4.97	4.94	-0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	STL	99	0	104	440	80	41	15	0%	1.1	18.2%	9.3%	8.9%	3.3%	4.96	4.96	-0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	STL	96	0	101	427	77	40	15	0%	1.1	18.0%	9.4%	8.6%	3.4%	5.01	5.04	-0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	STL	92	0	97	408	73	39	15	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	3.6%	5.11	5.17	-0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	STL	86	0	91	383	67	38	15	0%	1.1	17.4%	10.0%	7.5%	3.8%	5.25	5.35	-0.8
2027	24	MLB CTX	STL	43	0	45	190	32	18	6	0%	1.0	16.7%	9.6%	7.1%	3.1%	5.06	5.01	-0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	STL	67	0	70	296	52	28	9	0%	1.0	17.6%	9.3%	8.3%	3.1%	4.92	4.87	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	STL	80	0	84	355	64	33	11	0%	1.1	18.1%	9.2%	8.8%	3.1%	4.84	4.81	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	STL	85	0	89	376	68	35	12	0%	1.0	18.2%	9.3%	8.9%	3.1%	4.83	4.83	-0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	STL	86	0	90	380	69	36	12	0%	1.0	18.0%	9.4%	8.6%	3.2%	4.88	4.91	-0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	STL	84	0	88	372	66	36	12	0%	1.0	17.8%	9.7%	8.1%	3.3%	4.97	5.03	-0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	STL	80	0	84	355	62	35	13	0%	1.1	17.4%	10.0%	7.5%	3.5%	5.10	5.20	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		523	0	549	2320	412	220	75	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.5%	8.3%	3.2%	4.94	4.57	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	150	80	27	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.5%	8.3%	3.2%	4.94	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		122	68	397	1686	284	143	63	56%	3.3	16.8%	8.5%	8.4%	3.7%	4.72	4.81	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	34	200	850	143	72	32	56%	3.3	16.8%	8.5%	8.4%	3.7%	4.72	4.81	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gerardo Salas (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.38	15.0%	10.1%	3.4%	—	5.03	17.5%	8.1%	316	-0.35	—	—	—
Connor Johnstone R 2018 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.51	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.11	3.78	319	87
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	87
John Matthews R 2021 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	18.6%	10.4%	3.7%	.351	4.75	15.5%	1.6%	145	-0.12	4.51	213	86
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	86
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	85
Patrick Halligan R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SW	4.43	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.73	25.0%	14.9%	174	-0.70	2.47	304	85
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	85
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	85
Kyle Smith R 2016 · 5.05 FIP	23	SW	5.05	14.7%	8.7%	3.8%	.326	3.31	15.2%	9.5%	76	-1.74	3.31	159	84
Yaisel Sierra R 2016 · 4.32 FIP	25	SW	4.32	16.9%	8.6%	2.8%	.338	3.04	22.4%	12.3%	71	-1.28	3.04	176	84
Cade Winquest R 2023 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	17.9%	12.0%	2.3%	.299	3.74	20.8%	10.5%	175	-0.63	3.11	252	84
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	83
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	82
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	82
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	82
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	82
Félix Paulino R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	13.4%	10.0%	2.8%	.313	5.43	18.0%	7.9%	77	+0.66	3.33	394	81
Jordan Mikel R 2022 · 6.04 FIP	23	SW	6.04	12.8%	11.6%	4.7%	.229	3.65	20.1%	11.3%	115	-2.39	3.04	195	81
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	80
Joan Gregorio R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	23	SW	4.29	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.18	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.69	301	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	97	17.5%	9.5%	1.33	5.10
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38