Gerardo Salas — OGILVIE

Gerardo Salas P Peoria Chiefs

+0.1 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 189 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.1 · 2029

ERA4.90

FIP4.90

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%19.6%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%10.4%

IP98

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.1peak

2029

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	18	ROK	DSL Cardinals Blue	12	5	19	73	17	3	1	15.8%	5.1%	1.8%	2.89	3.41	+0.3
2022	19	ROK	DSL Cardinals	11	10	47	185	48	8	4	17.6%	5.4%	2.9%	3.61	3.87	+0.6
2023	20	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	14	12	58	259	52	22	6	14.0%	10.5%	3.2%	4.19	5.00	-0.0
2024	21	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	22	22	113	454	119	25	9	19.4%	6.5%	2.4%	2.62	3.60	+2.2
2025	22	A+	Peoria Chiefs	25	19	97	444	90	39	15	15.6%	10.1%	5.1%	8.10	5.87	-0.7
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A+	Peoria Chiefs	3	0	8	40	5	4	4	—	—	—	7.88	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	STL	18	18	98	413	81	38	14	19.6%	9.2%	3.5%	4.90	4.90	+0.4
2026 Total	23	MLB	STL	—	—	106	453	86	42	18	19.0%	9.3%	4.1%	5.12	4.53	+0.9
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	STL	21	21	116	491	101	43	17	20.6%	8.8%	3.4%	4.76	4.71	+0.8
2028	25	MLB	STL	24	24	130	548	116	47	18	21.1%	8.5%	3.4%	4.66	4.61	+1.0
2029	26	MLB	STL	25	25	137	577	123	49	19	21.4%	8.4%	3.3%	4.60	4.57	+1.1
2030	27	MLB	STL	25	25	140	590	126	50	20	21.4%	8.4%	3.3%	4.58	4.58	+1.1
2031	28	MLB	STL	25	25	140	589	126	50	20	21.4%	8.5%	3.4%	4.59	4.60	+1.1
2032	29	MLB	STL	25	25	136	576	122	49	20	21.2%	8.6%	3.4%	4.62	4.65	+1.0
2033	30	MLB	STL	24	24	132	559	118	48	19	21.0%	8.7%	3.5%	4.67	4.71	+0.9
2034	31	MLB	STL	23	23	128	540	112	47	19	20.8%	8.8%	3.5%	4.74	4.79	+0.7
2035	32	MLB	STL	22	22	123	518	106	46	19	20.5%	8.9%	3.6%	4.82	4.87	+0.6
2036	33	MLB	STL	21	21	117	495	100	45	18	20.2%	9.1%	3.7%	4.91	4.97	+0.4
2037	34	MLB	STL	20	20	111	470	93	44	18	19.9%	9.3%	3.8%	5.01	5.08	+0.3
2038	35	MLB	STL	19	19	105	443	86	42	17	19.5%	9.6%	3.9%	5.13	5.20	+0.1
2039	36	MLB	STL	18	18	98	414	79	41	17	19.1%	9.8%	4.0%	5.25	5.34	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			87	68	342	1455	243	119	53	16.7%	8.2%	3.6%	4.71	4.71	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—			51	40	200	851	142	70	31	16.7%	8.2%	3.6%	4.71	4.71	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Gerardo Salas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.90	19.6%	9.2%	3.5%	—	4.63	21.1%	12.5%	383	-0.27	—	—	—
Riley Thompson R 2026 · 4.66 FIP	23	SP-	4.66	16.5%	9.4%	3.2%	.288	5.32	21.7%	7.0%	57	+0.66	4.63	340	95
Derek True R 2026 · 4.91 FIP	23	SP-	4.91	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.96	16.6%	4.6%	60	+0.05	4.91	157	94
Shelby Lackey R 2025 · 4.45 FIP	22	SP-	4.45	18.2%	10.0%	2.9%	.323	3.96	20.6%	5.7%	65	-0.49	2.91	175	93
Thomas Farr R 2026 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	18.0%	9.8%	4.1%	.340	5.31	12.4%	2.9%	280	+0.27	5.04	380	92
Cooper Chandler R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	17.8%	9.3%	2.8%	.300	3.77	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.53	3.77	107	92
Blake Beers R 2027 · 4.61 FIP	24	SP-	4.61	18.9%	9.0%	3.6%	.298	4.96	17.7%	8.5%	323	+0.35	4.41	416	92
Tyler Uberstine R 2026 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	19.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.302	4.38	23.2%	14.7%	121	+0.23	4.15	212	91
Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.62 FIP	23	SP-	4.62	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.85	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.23	3.77	350	91
Kenten Egbert R 2026 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.02	10.6%	4.0%	101	-0.21	4.02	199	91
Jamison Hill R 2026 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP-	4.80	18.4%	11.6%	3.3%	.280	4.97	16.1%	3.0%	202	+0.17	4.68	326	91
Levi Thomas R 2026 · 5.33 FIP	23	SP-	5.33	18.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.17	5.16	116	90
Jackson Wentworth R 2025 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP-	4.95	16.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.95	124	90
Dakota Hawkins R 2027 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	16.3%	8.9%	2.8%	.277	3.52	21.8%	12.7%	44	-0.88	3.52	128	90
Bryce Conley R 2026 · 4.72 FIP	23	SP-	4.72	20.2%	12.2%	3.3%	.269	4.89	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.28	448	90
Sam Highfill R 2027 · 4.80 FIP	24	SP-	4.80	15.0%	8.6%	3.4%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.80	106	90
Jonathan Cannon R 2026 · 4.74 FIP	23	SP-	4.74	16.1%	8.5%	3.5%	.311	4.58	17.4%	8.9%	297	-0.16	4.31	418	90
Carlos Sano R 2028 · 4.88 FIP	25	SP-	4.88	17.6%	11.2%	3.4%	.282	9.12	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.24	4.88	105	90
Hunter Adkins R 2028 · 4.71 FIP	25	SP-	4.71	16.2%	10.3%	3.0%	.290	4.81	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.10	4.71	160	89
Cameron Foster R 2027 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	3.95	21.4%	10.8%	118	-0.35	2.58	199	89
Angel Ventura R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	23	SP-	4.34	17.9%	10.9%	2.5%	.285	4.64	14.8%	4.8%	153	+0.30	3.44	393	89

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+1.1	$10M	+$9M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+1.0	$10M	+$9M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.7	$4M	+$2M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.6	$3M	+$2M
Totals		$6M		$41M	+$35M