Elvis Novas — OGILVIE

Elvis Novas P Columbia Fireflies

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 205 lbs A peak 0.1 · 2027

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 57 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 103

ERA4.55

FIP4.55

K%18.1%

BB%8.0%

K-BB%10.1%

ROS IP57

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 57 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	11	0	23	100	27	6	1	0%	2.1	18.4%	7.5%	10.9%	1.4%	3.91	3.27	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	11	0	23	100	27	6	1	0%	2.1	27.0%	6.0%	21.0%	1.0%	3.91	2.10	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	10	1	30	130	30	8	3	10%	3.0	15.7%	7.7%	8.0%	3.1%	4.50	4.46	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	10	1	30	130	30	8	3	10%	3.0	23.1%	6.2%	16.9%	2.3%	4.50	3.20	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	19	98	15	11	3	0%	1.4	12.3%	13.1%	-0.8%	4.4%	6.98	6.15	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	19	98	15	11	3	0%	1.4	15.3%	11.2%	4.1%	3.1%	6.98	5.27	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	37	157	34	11	2	0%	1.3	15.5%	8.5%	7.0%	1.9%	4.42	3.90	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	0	37	157	34	11	2	0%	1.3	15.5%	8.5%	7.0%	1.9%	4.42	3.90	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	0	37	157	34	11	2	0%	1.3	21.7%	7.0%	14.6%	1.3%	4.42	2.85	—
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	27	0	43	192	48	12	2	0%	1.6	18.5%	7.4%	11.1%	1.2%	5.23	3.16	—
2025	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	27	0	43	192	48	12	2	0%	1.6	18.5%	7.4%	11.1%	1.2%	5.23	3.16	—
2025	22	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	27	0	43	192	48	12	2	0%	1.6	25.0%	6.2%	18.8%	1.0%	5.23	2.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	KC	54	0	57	241	44	19	7	0%	1.1	18.1%	8.0%	10.1%	2.9%	4.55	4.55	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	KC	55	0	58	244	46	20	7	0%	1.1	19.0%	8.0%	11.0%	2.9%	4.49	4.47	+0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	KC	55	0	58	244	48	20	7	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.1%	11.5%	2.9%	4.45	4.44	+0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	KC	54	0	57	240	47	20	7	0%	1.1	19.7%	8.2%	11.5%	2.9%	4.46	4.47	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	KC	24	0	25	106	20	8	3	0%	1.0	19.0%	8.0%	11.0%	2.9%	4.49	4.47	+0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	KC	36	0	38	160	31	13	5	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.1%	11.5%	2.9%	4.45	4.44	+0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	KC	42	0	44	186	37	15	5	0%	1.0	19.7%	8.2%	11.5%	2.9%	4.46	4.47	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		102	0	107	452	88	37	13	0%	1.0	19.5%	8.1%	11.4%	2.9%	4.46	4.08	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	165	69	24	0%	1.1	19.5%	8.1%	11.4%	2.9%	4.46	4.08	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		90	1	152	677	111	58	15	1%	1.7	16.3%	8.5%	7.8%	2.2%	4.91	4.03	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		118	1	200	891	146	76	20	1%	1.7	16.3%	8.5%	7.8%	2.2%	4.91	4.03	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Elvis Novas (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	18.1%	8.0%	2.9%	—	4.46	19.4%	11.3%	172	-0.09	—	—	—
Matt Pierpont R 2015 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	17.8%	7.1%	3.1%	.295	3.25	21.7%	13.8%	190	-0.96	2.76	280	93
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	93
Hector Noesí R 2011 · 3.73 FIP	24	SU	3.73	18.2%	7.3%	2.3%	.320	4.89	16.1%	8.4%	306	+1.16	3.73	613	92
Rob Griswold R 2022 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	16.8%	8.3%	3.2%	.244	4.34	12.5%	6.2%	144	-0.13	3.57	203	91
Alex Hermeling R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	127	91
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	90
Hueston Morrill R 2024 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	19.8%	8.7%	3.7%	.302	3.24	19.0%	8.2%	54	-1.30	3.09	102	90
Stephen Villines R 2019 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	16.8%	8.5%	2.2%	.280	3.15	20.6%	14.7%	40	-0.81	2.14	156	90
Brian Glowicki R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	16.4%	8.3%	3.0%	.275	3.92	26.0%	14.1%	62	-0.49	2.31	189	90
Bryan Pope R 2023 · 3.96 FIP	24	SU	3.96	19.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.332	5.20	12.7%	-0.3%	22	+1.24	3.96	148	90
Micah Dallas R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	24	SU	4.04	18.7%	7.1%	3.0%	.273	4.34	17.8%	8.2%	104	+0.30	3.60	202	90
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	90
Dylan Simmons R 2024 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	17.8%	9.4%	1.9%	.295	5.10	12.7%	0.6%	74	+1.25	3.85	125	89
Mayckol Guaipe R 2015 · 3.97 FIP	24	SU	3.97	17.0%	7.1%	2.6%	.330	2.49	21.2%	16.0%	33	-1.48	1.88	136	89
Mick VanVossen R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	24	SU	4.25	18.6%	8.9%	2.9%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	141	89
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.14	18.0%	8.1%	37	+0.79	4.32	152	89
Nelson Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.42 FIP	25	SU	3.42	19.6%	7.7%	1.8%	.293	4.98	17.7%	7.8%	115	+1.56	3.42	258	89
Brett McKinney R 2015 · 4.79 FIP	24	SU	4.79	17.1%	8.9%	3.6%	.335	4.02	18.1%	8.5%	129	-0.77	3.43	183	89
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	89
Eric Karch R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	16.0%	6.2%	2.3%	.324	4.70	20.3%	16.1%	35	+0.92	3.78	104	88

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	57	19.1%	8.1%	1.12	4.49
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Matt Wise ('08)	1.6	53	18.1%	7.9%	1.14	4.23
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82