Jormy Nivar — OGILVIE

Jormy Nivar P Hickory Crawdads

+0.1 WAR

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A peak 0.4 · 2027

ERA4.42

FIP4.42

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.2%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%12.5%

IP52

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2027

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†4550

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2023	20	ROK	DSL Rangers Blue	11	1	30	127	30	13	1	16.1%	12.8%	0.8%	3.56	3.82	+0.4
2024	21	ROK	DSL Rangers Red	11	10	46	185	50	5	0	18.4%	3.4%	0.0%	1.76	1.98	+1.6
2025	22	A	Hickory Crawdads	18	8	59	268	50	19	10	12.9%	8.8%	4.0%	5.61	5.33	-0.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	23	A	Hickory Crawdads	2	1	8	29	9	1	0	—	—	—	1.12	—	—
ROS	23	MLB	TEX	52	—	52	221	42	23	7	18.8%	10.2%	3.0%	4.81	4.81	+0.1
2026 Total	23	MLB	TEX	—	—	60	250	51	24	7	20.2%	9.4%	2.6%	4.32	4.17	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	24	MLB	TEX	54	—	54	227	45	22	7	19.8%	9.8%	2.9%	4.70	4.67	+0.2
2028	25	MLB	TEX	54	—	54	230	47	22	7	20.4%	9.7%	2.9%	4.62	4.59	+0.2
2029	26	MLB	TEX	54	—	54	230	48	22	7	20.8%	9.6%	2.9%	4.57	4.55	+0.2
2030	27	MLB	TEX	54	—	54	228	48	22	7	20.9%	9.6%	2.9%	4.56	4.55	+0.2
2031	28	MLB	TEX	53	—	53	225	47	22	7	20.8%	9.7%	3.0%	4.57	4.58	+0.2
2032	29	MLB	TEX	52	—	52	220	45	21	7	20.7%	9.7%	3.0%	4.60	4.63	+0.2
2033	30	MLB	TEX	50	—	50	213	44	21	7	20.5%	9.8%	3.1%	4.65	4.69	+0.1
2034	31	MLB	TEX	49	—	49	205	42	20	6	20.3%	10.0%	3.2%	4.72	4.76	+0.1
2035	32	MLB	TEX	47	—	47	197	39	20	6	20.0%	10.1%	3.2%	4.80	4.85	+0.1
2036	33	MLB	TEX	45	—	45	188	37	19	6	19.7%	10.3%	3.3%	4.89	4.95	0.0
2037	34	MLB	TEX	42	—	42	179	35	19	6	19.4%	10.5%	3.4%	4.99	5.05	-0.0
2038	35	MLB	TEX	40	—	40	169	32	18	6	19.0%	10.7%	3.5%	5.10	5.18	-0.1
2039	36	MLB	TEX	37	—	37	158	29	17	6	18.5%	11.0%	3.7%	5.23	5.31	-0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			42	20	144	609	98	47	12	16.1%	7.7%	1.9%	3.70	3.79	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—			58	28	200	848	136	65	17	16.1%	7.7%	1.9%	3.70	3.79	+3.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jormy Nivar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	18.8%	10.2%	3.0%	—	4.60	20.4%	10.6%	162	-0.21	—	—	—
Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	23	SW	4.56	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.78	16.2%	5.7%	316	+0.22	3.98	371	94
Billy Corcoran R 2026 · 4.24 FIP	23	SW	4.24	19.5%	10.0%	2.8%	.308	4.43	16.0%	9.0%	156	+0.19	4.24	225	94
Brett Standlee R 2026 · 4.11 FIP	23	SW	4.11	19.7%	11.1%	2.3%	.322	4.48	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.37	4.11	128	93
Colby Morris R 2027 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.74	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.64	4.10	105	93
Colby Blueberg R 2026 · 4.44 FIP	23	SW	4.44	17.7%	11.0%	2.6%	.310	3.81	21.6%	10.6%	110	-0.63	2.36	229	92
Tyler Schoff R 2026 · 4.28 FIP	23	SW	4.28	19.6%	10.8%	2.7%	.350	3.71	23.8%	15.7%	93	-0.57	3.68	147	92
Dylan Simmons R 2026 · 3.83 FIP	23	SW	3.83	17.8%	9.4%	1.9%	.295	4.33	12.8%	0.9%	51	+0.50	3.83	102	91
Miguel Guerrero R 2026 · 4.56 FIP	23	SW	4.56	18.1%	10.3%	3.1%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	171	91
Alex Palsha R 2027 · 3.86 FIP	24	SW	3.86	20.6%	10.4%	2.2%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.03	3.40	134	91
Joan Gregorio R 2026 · 4.32 FIP	23	SW	4.32	18.0%	10.2%	2.6%	.269	4.21	21.1%	11.1%	208	-0.11	3.71	301	91
Danny Kirwin R 2027 · 4.16 FIP	24	SW	4.16	17.9%	9.9%	2.4%	.262	4.19	16.8%	7.5%	66	+0.03	4.16	135	91
Austin Ross R 2027 · 4.42 FIP	24	SW	4.42	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.22	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.80	4.42	121	90
Patrick Halligan R 2026 · 4.42 FIP	23	SW	4.42	18.8%	11.6%	2.6%	.330	3.49	24.9%	14.5%	98	-0.93	2.46	228	90
Ben Anderson R 2026 · 4.87 FIP	23	SW	4.87	19.8%	9.4%	4.1%	.309	4.00	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.87	3.79	314	90
Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.24	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.26	3.32	181	90
Marcelo Perez R 2026 · 3.81 FIP	23	SW	3.81	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.92	13.9%	7.0%	196	+1.11	3.81	264	90
Brett McKinney R 2027 · 4.75 FIP	24	SW	4.75	17.1%	8.9%	3.6%	.335	3.98	18.1%	8.5%	129	-0.77	3.43	183	90
Max Alba R 2027 · 4.50 FIP	24	SW	4.50	20.6%	12.6%	2.8%	.290	4.91	17.8%	11.6%	162	+0.41	4.50	217	90
Matt Carasiti R 2027 · 3.87 FIP	24	SW	3.87	17.8%	9.8%	1.9%	.309	3.25	24.8%	15.5%	104	-0.62	2.78	312	90
Ricky Castro R 2027 · 4.02 FIP	24	SW	4.02	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	4.87	18.2%	10.0%	95	+0.85	4.02	158	90

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.