Jormy Nivar
P
Hickory Crawdads
Age 23
RHP
6'3" / 170 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION44 act + 62 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA5.24
FIP5.24
K%13.0%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%3.1%
ROS IP62
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 106 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Rangers Blue | 11 | 1 | 30 | 127 | 30 | 13 | 1 | 9% | 2.8 | 16.1% | 12.8% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 3.56 | 3.81 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | DSL Rangers Blue | 11 | 1 | 30 | 127 | 30 | 13 | 1 | 9% | 2.8 | 23.6% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 0.8% | 3.56 | 2.84 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | DSL Rangers Red | 11 | 10 | 46 | 185 | 50 | 5 | 0 | 91% | 4.2 | 18.4% | 3.4% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 1.76 | 1.98 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | ROK | DSL Rangers Red | 11 | 10 | 46 | 185 | 50 | 5 | 0 | 91% | 4.2 | 27.0% | 2.7% | 24.3% | 0.0% | 1.76 | 1.25 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 8 | 59 | 268 | 50 | 19 | 10 | 44% | 3.3 | 12.9% | 8.8% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.61 | 4.98 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 18 | 8 | 59 | 268 | 50 | 19 | 10 | 44% | 3.3 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 5.61 | 4.57 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A | Hickory Crawdads | 14 | 1 | 44 | 180 | 34 | 18 | 4 | 7% | 3.1 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.86 | 5.00 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TEX | 59 | 0 | 62 | 260 | 34 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.24 | 5.24 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.0% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 5.24 | 5.24 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | TEX | — | — | 106 | 440 | 68 | 44 | 12 | — | — | 15.4% | 9.9% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 5.14 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 60 | 0 | 63 | 266 | 41 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.3% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 5.00 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 61 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 45 | 26 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | TEX | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.3% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 5.00 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | TEX | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 30 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.7% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 66 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 47 | 28 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 4.97 | 4.53 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 136 | 81 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.1% | 9.5% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 4.97 | 4.53 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 54 | 20 | 180 | 760 | 114 | 67 | 15 | 37% | 3.3 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 3.61 | 4.06 | +2.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 22 | 200 | 846 | 127 | 75 | 17 | 37% | 3.3 | 15.0% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 3.61 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jormy Nivar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.24 | 13.0% | 9.9% | 2.9% | — | 4.93 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 127 | -0.31 | — | — | — |
| Tyler Peyton R 2026 · 5.56 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.56 | 11.1% | 10.5% | 3.8% | .298 | 4.50 | 12.8% | 1.6% | 115 | -1.06 | 3.88 | 183 | 88 |
| Kyle Smith R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.75 | 14.7% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .326 | 3.33 | 15.2% | 9.5% | 76 | -1.42 | 3.33 | 159 | 87 |
| Cooper Adams R 2027 · 5.35 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.35 | 13.0% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .275 | 3.92 | 22.5% | 11.6% | 118 | -1.43 | 2.99 | 197 | 87 |
| Chance Huff R 2026 · 5.78 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.78 | 11.8% | 11.4% | 4.1% | .312 | 5.14 | 15.7% | -0.0% | 151 | -0.64 | 4.35 | 235 | 87 |
| Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.91 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .354 | 3.46 | 18.9% | 9.4% | 89 | -1.45 | 3.06 | 165 | 86 |
| Michael Wagner R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.10 | 13.1% | 11.3% | 1.2% | .287 | 4.27 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 84 | +0.17 | 4.10 | 149 | 85 |
| Houston Roth R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.58 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .263 | 4.63 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 228 | +0.05 | 3.57 | 389 | 85 |
| Anyelo Gómez R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.85 | 17.1% | 12.2% | 3.0% | .292 | 2.69 | 24.2% | 15.6% | 68 | -2.16 | 2.69 | 145 | 85 |
| Zach Mort R 2025 · 5.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 5.14 | 10.7% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .240 | 5.35 | 17.0% | 8.8% | 176 | +0.21 | 5.14 | 237 | 85 |
| Matt Marsh R 2027 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.21 | 15.5% | 10.7% | 1.9% | .275 | 3.87 | 20.5% | 11.4% | 70 | -0.34 | 3.13 | 143 | 84 |
| Daniel Blair R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.20 | 16.6% | 10.0% | 2.2% | .284 | 4.38 | 17.0% | 7.8% | 78 | +0.18 | 4.20 | 171 | 84 |
| Kevin Johnson R 2027 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.59 | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.5% | .302 | 5.48 | 9.9% | -2.0% | 26 | +0.89 | 4.59 | 106 | 83 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.29 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.6% | .262 | 5.23 | 16.8% | 4.6% | 91 | +0.94 | 4.03 | 161 | 83 |
| Holden Wilkerson R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.86 | 15.8% | 11.0% | 3.1% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.37 | 114 | 82 |
| Jheyson Caraballo R 2024 · 5.25 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.25 | 11.9% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 101 | 82 |
| Dylan Cumming R 2027 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 16.0% | 10.7% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.09 | 18.9% | 10.2% | 274 | -0.16 | 3.69 | 366 | 82 |
| Félix Paulino R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.70 | 13.4% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .313 | 5.27 | 18.0% | 7.9% | 77 | +0.57 | 3.33 | 394 | 82 |
| Connor Johnstone R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.49 | 15.7% | 7.6% | 3.2% | .272 | 4.58 | 12.9% | 7.9% | 166 | +0.09 | 3.90 | 319 | 82 |
| Axel Rios R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.57 | 13.1% | 13.5% | 1.6% | .333 | 4.01 | 15.2% | 3.2% | 97 | -0.56 | 3.45 | 153 | 82 |
| Scott Burke R 2027 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.84 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 3.6% | .316 | 5.01 | 14.9% | 6.7% | 61 | +0.17 | 4.84 | 119 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 15.0% | 9.7% | 1.12 | 5.07 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |