Jormy Nivar — OGILVIE

Jormy Nivar P Hickory Crawdads

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A peak 0.2 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION72 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.21

FIP5.21

K%13.0%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%3.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 78 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	11	1	30	127	30	13	1	9%	2.8	16.1%	12.8%	3.3%	0.9%	3.56	3.88	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	11	1	30	127	30	13	1	9%	2.8	16.1%	12.8%	3.3%	0.9%	3.56	3.88	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	11	1	30	127	30	13	1	9%	2.8	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	0.8%	3.56	2.84	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	11	10	46	185	50	5	0	91%	4.2	18.4%	3.4%	15.0%	0.0%	1.76	1.98	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	11	10	46	185	50	5	0	91%	4.2	18.4%	3.4%	15.0%	0.0%	1.76	1.98	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	11	10	46	185	50	5	0	91%	4.2	27.0%	2.7%	24.3%	0.0%	1.76	1.25	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	8	59	268	50	19	10	44%	3.3	12.9%	8.8%	4.1%	4.1%	5.61	5.36	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	8	59	268	50	19	10	44%	3.3	12.9%	8.8%	4.1%	4.1%	5.61	5.36	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	8	59	268	50	19	10	44%	3.3	18.7%	7.1%	11.6%	3.7%	5.61	4.57	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	22	4	72	312	45	32	9	18%	3.3	11.9%	12.5%	-0.6%	3.3%	3.48	5.51	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Hub City Spartanburgers	22	4	72	312	45	32	9	18%	3.3	11.9%	12.5%	-0.6%	3.3%	3.48	5.51	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A RAW	TEX	20	2	64	273	44	29	7	10%	3.2	16.1%	10.6%	5.5%	2.6%	3.25	4.49	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	TEX	2	2	9	39	1	3	2	100%	4.3	2.6%	7.7%	-5.1%	5.1%	5.19	6.67	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	TEX	5	0	5	22	3	2	1	0%	1.0	13.0%	9.4%	3.6%	3.0%	5.21	5.21	-0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	TEX	—	—	78	334	48	34	10	—	—	14.3%	10.2%	4.1%	2.9%	3.60	5.49	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TEX	69	0	73	307	47	28	9	0%	1.1	15.3%	9.2%	6.1%	2.9%	5.03	4.97	-0.3
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	70	0	74	310	52	28	9	0%	1.1	16.7%	9.0%	7.6%	2.9%	4.89	4.83	-0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	70	0	74	310	54	28	9	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.0%	8.4%	2.9%	4.80	4.76	-0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	69	0	72	306	54	28	9	0%	1.0	17.5%	9.1%	8.4%	3.0%	4.79	4.79	-0.2
2031	28	MLB MLE	TEX	67	0	70	296	52	27	9	0%	1.0	17.4%	9.2%	8.2%	3.1%	4.84	4.88	-0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	TEX	64	0	67	283	49	27	9	0%	1.0	17.2%	9.5%	7.7%	3.2%	4.94	5.01	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	TEX	60	0	63	266	45	26	9	0%	1.1	16.8%	9.8%	7.0%	3.4%	5.09	5.18	-0.4
2027	24	MLB CTX	TEX	30	0	31	131	20	12	4	0%	1.0	15.3%	9.2%	6.1%	2.9%	5.03	4.97	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	47	0	49	207	34	19	6	0%	1.0	16.7%	9.0%	7.6%	2.9%	4.89	4.83	-0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	55	0	58	245	43	22	7	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.0%	8.4%	2.9%	4.80	4.76	-0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	59	0	62	262	46	24	8	0%	1.1	17.5%	9.1%	8.4%	3.0%	4.79	4.79	-0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	TEX	59	0	62	262	46	24	8	0%	1.1	17.4%	9.2%	8.2%	3.1%	4.84	4.88	-0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	TEX	58	0	61	258	44	24	8	0%	1.1	17.2%	9.5%	7.7%	3.2%	4.94	5.01	-0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	TEX	55	0	58	245	41	24	8	0%	1.1	16.8%	9.8%	7.0%	3.4%	5.09	5.18	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		363	0	381	1609	274	149	50	0%	1.0	17.0%	9.3%	7.7%	3.1%	4.90	4.53	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	144	78	26	0%	1.1	17.0%	9.3%	7.7%	3.1%	4.90	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		62	23	208	892	126	85	23	37%	3.4	14.2%	9.5%	4.6%	2.5%	3.72	4.50	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	22	200	858	121	82	22	37%	3.4	14.2%	9.5%	4.6%	2.5%	3.72	4.50	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jormy Nivar (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.21	13.0%	9.4%	3.0%	—	4.85	16.4%	7.4%	220	-0.36	—	—	—
Hunter Hayes R 2023 · 4.53 FIP	22	SW	4.53	13.3%	9.7%	2.4%	.307	4.49	16.5%	4.0%	155	-0.04	3.34	216	91
Tyler Peyton R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	23	SW	5.25	11.1%	10.5%	3.2%	.298	4.44	12.8%	1.6%	115	-0.81	3.86	183	88
Chance Huff R 2023 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	11.8%	11.4%	3.7%	.312	5.08	15.7%	0.2%	155	-0.49	4.31	238	87
Kyle Smith R 2016 · 5.05 FIP	23	SW	5.05	14.7%	8.7%	3.8%	.326	3.31	15.2%	9.5%	76	-1.74	3.31	159	86
Houston Roth R 2021 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	16.4%	10.5%	2.9%	.263	4.83	20.8%	8.3%	228	+0.20	3.79	406	86
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	84
Michael Wagner R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	23	SW	4.14	13.1%	11.3%	1.3%	.287	4.29	16.4%	4.1%	84	+0.15	4.14	149	84
Matt Marsh R 2015 · 4.14 FIP	24	SW	4.14	15.5%	10.7%	1.8%	.275	3.65	20.5%	11.4%	70	-0.49	3.13	143	84
Daniel Blair R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	24	SW	4.10	16.6%	10.0%	2.1%	.284	4.39	17.0%	7.8%	78	+0.29	4.10	171	83
Connor Johnstone R 2018 · 4.40 FIP	23	SW	4.40	15.7%	7.6%	3.0%	.272	4.51	12.9%	7.9%	166	+0.11	3.78	319	83
Zach Mort R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	22	SW	5.01	10.7%	12.3%	2.3%	.240	5.35	17.0%	8.8%	176	+0.34	4.95	237	83
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	83
Jheyson Caraballo R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	21	SW	5.25	11.9%	10.6%	3.3%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	101	82
Félix Paulino R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	13.4%	10.0%	2.8%	.313	5.43	18.0%	7.9%	77	+0.66	3.33	394	82
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	81
Axel Rios R 2016 · 4.70 FIP	23	SW	4.70	13.1%	13.5%	1.8%	.333	4.06	15.2%	3.2%	97	-0.64	3.50	153	81
Felipe Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.18 FIP	23	SW	4.18	13.9%	7.8%	2.3%	.288	5.04	16.5%	6.6%	181	+0.86	3.27	339	81
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	81
Marco Camarena R 2016 · 4.49 FIP	25	SW	4.49	11.0%	9.3%	2.1%	.365	3.75	8.4%	0.9%	73	-0.74	3.75	142	81
Michael Santos R 2018 · 4.41 FIP	23	SW	4.41	17.4%	9.1%	2.9%	.289	4.87	15.0%	6.4%	49	+0.46	2.26	276	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	69	16.4%	9.3%	1.18	4.94
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86