Alix Hernandez — OGILVIE

Alix Hernandez P San Jose Giants

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 182 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.77

FIP4.77

K%23.6%

BB%13.0%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	14	5	51	216	69	27	6	36%	3.7	21.7%	15.6%	6.1%	2.8%	4.73	4.80	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants Orange	14	5	51	216	69	27	6	36%	3.7	21.7%	15.6%	6.1%	2.8%	4.73	4.80	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	ACL Giants Orange	14	5	51	216	69	27	6	36%	3.7	31.9%	12.5%	19.4%	2.8%	4.73	3.51	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	1	50	230	67	31	5	5%	2.4	21.7%	13.7%	7.9%	2.6%	4.71	4.44	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	1	50	230	67	31	5	5%	2.4	21.7%	13.7%	7.9%	2.6%	4.71	4.44	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	1	50	230	67	31	5	5%	2.4	29.1%	13.5%	15.7%	2.2%	4.71	3.58	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	12	0	14	56	24	6	1	0%	1.2	29.1%	13.4%	15.8%	2.2%	2.51	3.55	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	12	0	14	56	24	6	1	0%	1.2	29.1%	13.4%	15.8%	2.2%	2.51	3.55	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	12	0	14	56	24	6	1	0%	1.2	42.9%	10.7%	32.1%	1.8%	2.51	1.91	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	35	0	63	273	79	26	11	0%	1.8	21.6%	11.2%	10.5%	5.2%	4.26	5.53	—
YTD	22	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	35	0	63	273	79	26	11	0%	1.8	21.6%	11.2%	10.5%	5.2%	4.26	5.53	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	SF	25	0	47	201	62	18	8	0%	1.9	30.8%	9.0%	21.9%	4.0%	4.21	3.81	—
2026	22	A+ RAW	SF	10	0	16	72	17	8	3	0%	1.6	23.6%	11.1%	12.5%	4.2%	4.41	4.80	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SF	61	0	64	271	66	31	8	0%	1.1	24.3%	11.6%	12.8%	2.9%	4.59	4.50	+0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	SF	63	0	66	278	69	30	8	0%	1.0	24.8%	10.7%	14.2%	2.9%	4.43	4.33	+0.2
2029	25	MLB MLE	SF	64	0	67	282	71	28	8	0%	1.0	25.1%	10.1%	15.0%	2.9%	4.31	4.23	+0.3
2030	26	MLB MLE	SF	64	0	67	282	71	28	8	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.0%	15.3%	2.9%	4.25	4.21	+0.3
2031	27	MLB MLE	SF	63	0	66	277	70	28	8	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.1%	15.2%	3.0%	4.25	4.25	+0.2
2032	28	MLB MLE	SF	61	0	64	269	68	28	8	0%	1.0	25.1%	10.2%	14.9%	3.1%	4.30	4.33	+0.2
2027	23	MLB CTX	SF	30	0	32	135	33	16	4	0%	1.1	24.3%	11.6%	12.8%	2.9%	4.59	4.50	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	SF	44	0	46	194	48	21	6	0%	1.0	24.8%	10.7%	14.2%	2.9%	4.43	4.33	+0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	SF	51	0	54	228	57	23	7	0%	1.1	25.1%	10.1%	15.0%	2.9%	4.31	4.23	+0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	SF	55	0	58	245	62	25	7	0%	1.1	25.3%	10.0%	15.3%	2.9%	4.25	4.21	+0.2
2031	27	MLB CTX	SF	56	0	59	249	63	25	7	0%	1.1	25.3%	10.1%	15.2%	3.0%	4.25	4.25	+0.2
2032	28	MLB CTX	SF	56	0	59	249	63	26	8	0%	1.1	25.1%	10.2%	14.9%	3.1%	4.30	4.33	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		293	0	308	1300	326	134	38	0%	1.1	25.1%	10.3%	14.7%	2.9%	4.33	3.91	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	212	87	25	0%	1.1	25.1%	10.3%	14.7%	2.9%	4.33	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		82	6	179	775	172	103	28	7%	2.2	22.2%	13.3%	8.9%	3.5%	4.38	4.86	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		92	7	200	868	193	116	31	7%	2.2	22.2%	13.3%	8.9%	3.5%	4.38	4.86	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alix Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	23.6%	13.0%	3.0%	—	4.35	24.8%	14.0%	197	-0.42	—	—	—
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	90
Caleb Freeman R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	21	SU	3.98	24.6%	12.9%	2.4%	.267	5.15	21.7%	8.1%	58	+1.17	3.98	225	88
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	87
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	87
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	86
Alex Pham R 2022 · 4.23 FIP	22	SU	4.23	26.6%	14.5%	2.8%	.364	3.99	23.0%	12.4%	272	-0.24	3.73	349	86
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	86
Jacob Dorris R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	26.9%	12.4%	3.2%	.295	4.58	19.2%	8.8%	88	+0.42	4.16	130	86
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	85
Brandon Dufault R 2021 · 5.32 FIP	22	SU	5.32	22.1%	15.9%	3.8%	.278	4.83	21.0%	4.2%	66	-0.49	4.38	152	85
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	85
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	85
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	84
Ismael Cabrera R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	19.5%	12.4%	3.2%	.276	5.29	16.9%	6.5%	95	+0.52	3.56	133	84
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	84
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	84
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	84
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	84
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	84
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.0	58	24.9%	10.5%	1.14	4.37
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19