Caleb Freeman — OGILVIE

Caleb Freeman P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 28 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs AA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 32 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.26

FIP5.26

K%19.6%

BB%14.6%

K-BB%5.0%

ROS IP32

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 32 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

SL+0.8 (21%)

CU (30%)

FB-0.7 (49%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	0	18	76	26	8	2	0%	1.5	24.6%	12.9%	11.7%	2.4%	3.00	3.98	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	0	18	76	26	8	2	0%	1.5	34.2%	10.5%	23.7%	2.6%	3.00	2.99	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	0	44	186	55	18	7	0%	1.1	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	4.7%	3.27	5.11	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	0	44	186	55	18	7	0%	1.1	29.6%	9.7%	19.9%	3.8%	3.27	3.90	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	0	17	81	18	15	1	0%	1.0	17.1%	21.7%	-4.6%	1.6%	7.27	5.28	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	0	17	81	18	15	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	18.5%	3.7%	1.2%	7.27	4.37	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	0	34	168	38	31	3	0%	1.0	19.9%	16.6%	3.3%	1.9%	3.71	4.56	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	0	34	168	38	31	3	0%	1.0	19.9%	16.6%	3.3%	1.9%	3.71	4.56	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	0	34	168	38	31	3	0%	1.0	22.6%	18.5%	4.2%	1.8%	3.71	4.75	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	39	0	44	191	56	26	5	0%	1.1	23.7%	15.0%	8.8%	3.4%	3.92	4.83	—
2024	26	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	39	0	44	191	56	26	5	0%	1.1	23.7%	15.0%	8.8%	3.4%	3.92	4.83	—
2024	26	AA RAW	Birmingham Barons	39	0	44	191	56	26	5	0%	1.1	29.3%	13.6%	15.7%	2.6%	3.92	3.81	—
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	54	245	52	37	7	0%	1.1	17.6%	15.4%	2.2%	2.2%	4.33	4.76	-0.1
2025	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	54	245	52	37	7	0%	1.1	17.6%	15.4%	2.2%	2.2%	4.33	4.76	-0.1
2025	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	54	245	52	37	7	0%	1.1	21.2%	15.1%	6.1%	2.9%	4.33	4.91	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			5	0	3	16	3	1	1	0%	0.7	18.8%	6.2%	12.5%	6.2%	5.40	6.10	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	24	0	28	137	37	24	3	0%	1.2	21.3%	18.8%	2.6%	2.8%	4.13	5.21	—
YTD	28	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	24	0	28	137	37	24	3	0%	1.2	21.3%	18.8%	2.6%	2.8%	4.13	5.21	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AA RAW	TOR	23	0	27	129	34	22	3	0%	1.2	26.4%	17.1%	9.3%	2.3%	4.33	4.31	—
2026	28	AAA RAW	TOR	1	0	1	8	3	2	0	0%	1.3	37.5%	25.0%	12.5%	0.0%	0.00	3.10	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	TOR	29	0	31	130	26	19	4	0%	1.1	19.7%	14.3%	5.4%	3.0%	5.25	5.30	-0.3
2027	29	MLB CTX	TOR	10	0	10	42	8	6	1	0%	1.0	19.7%	14.3%	5.4%	3.0%	5.25	5.30	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	13	57	11	7	2	0%	0.9	19.4%	12.0%	7.4%	4.0%	5.29	5.15	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		219	0	200	874	170	108	31	0%	0.9	19.4%	12.0%	7.4%	4.0%	5.29	5.15	-1.4
Career	—	MLE		215	0	239	1084	227	168	31	0%	1.1	20.9%	15.5%	5.5%	2.8%	4.06	4.84	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		180	0	200	906	190	140	26	0%	1.1	20.9%	15.5%	5.5%	2.8%	4.06	4.84	-1.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Caleb Freeman (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.26	19.6%	14.6%	2.9%	—	5.30	19.7%	5.4%	31	+0.04	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	84
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	84
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	80
Gregory Infante R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	28	SU	4.54	16.9%	15.7%	1.6%	.290	3.78	21.3%	12.7%	181	-0.76	2.97	230	79
Javy Guerra R 2016 · 4.29 FIP	30	SU	4.29	21.3%	13.9%	2.3%	.303	3.95	19.5%	13.0%	193	-0.34	2.95	260	79
Tanner Scheppers R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SU	4.37	17.7%	11.2%	2.5%	.263	4.86	15.7%	9.0%	48	+0.49	4.37	101	78
Theo Denlinger R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	27	SU	4.21	19.8%	15.1%	1.6%	.266	4.23	15.3%	9.9%	41	+0.02	2.92	140	78
Ronald Peña R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	27	SU	4.55	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	.355	4.49	16.5%	6.1%	39	-0.06	3.72	187	77
Irving Jimenez R 2017 · 4.51 FIP	27	SU	4.51	18.9%	12.4%	2.6%	.417	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	104	77
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	77
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	76
Wil Browning R 2017 · 4.44 FIP	28	SU	4.44	17.9%	13.1%	2.2%	.359	—	—	—	—	—	2.14	162	76
Kevin Lenik R 2019 · 4.91 FIP	27	SU	4.91	21.7%	14.9%	3.2%	.205	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	107	76
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	28	SU	4.43	23.3%	13.6%	2.9%	.313	—	—	—	—	—	2.64	315	75
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	75
Jake Haberer R 2023 · 5.10 FIP	28	SU	5.10	16.4%	14.7%	2.8%	.262	5.03	16.2%	-1.4%	15	-0.07	3.46	183	75
Brad Boxberger R 2016 · 4.96 FIP	28	SU	4.96	19.3%	15.8%	2.7%	.282	3.98	29.0%	18.0%	109	-0.98	3.01	363	75
Michael Ynoa R 2019 · 4.68 FIP	27	SU	4.68	23.1%	13.8%	3.3%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	142	74
Beck Wheeler R 2017 · 5.40 FIP	28	SU	5.40	15.3%	12.2%	3.7%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	173	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	19.6%	14.5%	1.15	5.26
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78