Berny Ortiz

P FCL Red Sox

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 167 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECTFG #954MiLBFA 2037

ETA2028FG ETA2031MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKDSL Red Sox R…	11	9	40	4.69	3.27	20.0%	12.2%	—	K 13.6% · BB 15.3% · FIP 4.37
2026	20	MIX2 levels	17	13	46	8.08	3.32	21.0%	15.5%	—	K 14.7% · BB 19.2% · FIP 4.30
2027PROJ	21	MLBBOS	15	15	81	5.77	5.77	18.2%	18.4%	-0.8
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBBOS	11	11	59	5.32	5.14	20.5%	15.4%	-0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBBOS	21	21	116	4.96	4.76	22.0%	13.5%	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$4M+2

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control30Command46FB velo60

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 97%

CompsKyle Larsen (age 21) · Aaron Hernandez (age 22) · Hunter Parks (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 126

ERA5.77

FIP5.77

K%18.2%

BB%18.4%

K-BB%-0.2%

Proj IP81

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4555

CTRL3030

CMD3045

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	11	9	40	180	36	22	1	82%	3.7	13.6%	15.3%	-1.7%	0.9%	4.69	4.37	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	11	9	40	180	36	22	1	82%	3.7	13.6%	15.3%	-1.7%	0.9%	4.69	4.37	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	11	9	40	180	36	22	1	82%	3.7	20.0%	12.2%	7.8%	0.6%	4.69	3.27	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	46	219	46	34	0	76%	2.7	14.7%	19.2%	-4.6%	0.0%	8.08	4.30	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	46	219	46	34	0	76%	2.7	14.7%	19.2%	-4.6%	0.0%	8.08	4.30	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	13	46	219	46	34	0	76%	2.7	21.0%	15.5%	5.5%	0.0%	8.08	3.32	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	BOS	15	15	81	342	62	63	9	100%	5.4	18.2%	18.4%	-0.2%	2.7%	5.77	5.77	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	121	511	105	79	14	100%	5.5	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	2.7%	5.36	5.18	-0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	BOS	29	29	160	673	148	91	18	100%	5.5	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	2.7%	5.00	4.80	+0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	BOS	31	31	175	739	169	90	20	100%	5.6	22.9%	12.2%	10.7%	2.7%	4.72	4.56	+0.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	BOS	30	30	177	748	175	85	20	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.4%	12.0%	2.7%	4.53	4.41	+1.0
2032	26	MLB MLE	BOS	30	30	177	748	177	85	20	100%	5.9	23.6%	11.4%	12.3%	2.7%	4.44	4.38	+1.1
2033	27	MLB MLE	BOS	29	29	174	737	174	84	20	100%	6.0	23.6%	11.4%	12.2%	2.7%	4.43	4.42	+1.0
2034	28	MLB MLE	BOS	28	28	169	715	168	83	20	100%	6.0	23.5%	11.6%	11.9%	2.8%	4.47	4.50	+0.8
2035	29	MLB MLE	BOS	27	27	162	683	159	81	20	100%	6.0	23.3%	11.8%	11.4%	3.0%	4.57	4.63	+0.5
2036	30	MLB MLE	BOS	25	25	152	642	147	78	20	100%	6.1	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	3.2%	4.71	4.81	+0.2
2037	31	MLB MLE	BOS	24	24	142	598	135	75	20	100%	5.9	22.5%	12.5%	10.1%	3.4%	4.89	5.01	-0.2
2038	32	MLB MLE	BOS	22	22	131	554	122	71	20	100%	6.0	22.1%	12.9%	9.2%	3.6%	5.10	5.24	-0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	BOS	11	11	59	249	51	38	7	100%	5.4	20.5%	15.4%	5.1%	2.6%	5.32	5.14	-0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	BOS	21	21	116	490	108	66	13	100%	5.5	22.0%	13.5%	8.5%	2.6%	4.96	4.76	+0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	BOS	26	26	145	612	140	75	16	100%	5.6	22.9%	12.2%	10.7%	2.6%	4.68	4.52	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	BOS	27	27	156	659	154	75	17	100%	5.8	23.4%	11.4%	12.0%	2.6%	4.49	4.37	+0.9
2032	26	MLB CTX	BOS	27	27	162	684	162	78	18	100%	6.0	23.6%	11.4%	12.3%	2.6%	4.40	4.34	+1.0
2033	27	MLB CTX	BOS	27	27	162	684	162	78	18	100%	6.0	23.6%	11.4%	12.2%	2.6%	4.39	4.38	+0.9
2034	28	MLB CTX	BOS	26	26	158	667	157	77	18	100%	6.1	23.5%	11.6%	11.9%	2.7%	4.43	4.46	+0.7
2035	29	MLB CTX	BOS	26	26	154	650	151	77	19	100%	5.9	23.3%	11.8%	11.4%	2.9%	4.53	4.59	+0.5
2036	30	MLB CTX	BOS	24	24	144	608	139	74	19	100%	6.0	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	3.1%	4.67	4.77	+0.1
2037	31	MLB CTX	BOS	22	22	135	570	128	71	19	100%	6.1	22.5%	12.5%	10.1%	3.3%	4.84	4.96	-0.2
2038	32	MLB CTX	BOS	21	21	125	528	116	68	19	100%	6.0	22.1%	12.9%	9.2%	3.5%	5.05	5.19	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		259	259	1516	6403	1469	777	181	100%	5.9	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	2.8%	4.65	4.25	+11.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	194	102	24	100%	5.8	22.9%	12.1%	10.8%	2.8%	4.65	4.25	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		28	22	86	399	57	70	2	79%	3.1	14.2%	17.5%	-3.3%	0.4%	6.49	4.33	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		65	51	200	928	132	162	4	79%	3.1	14.2%	17.5%	-3.3%	0.4%	6.49	4.33	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Berny Ortiz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.77	18.2%	18.4%	2.7%	—	4.81	21.9%	8.4%	456	-0.96	—	—	—
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	89
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	84
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.42	301	83
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	83
José Leclerc R 2015 · 5.02 FIP	21	SP	5.02	16.8%	17.0%	2.1%	.304	3.15	30.0%	15.1%	184	-1.87	1.48	527	81
Jefferson Jean R 2024 · 6.45 FIP	19	SP-	6.45	18.3%	21.5%	4.0%	.311	4.79	16.9%	-0.3%	87	-1.66	4.79	132	81
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	81
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	81
Jacob Watters R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	22	SP	4.87	18.3%	17.1%	2.1%	.319	4.38	17.0%	5.1%	81	-0.49	3.85	165	80
Gage Stanifer R 2024 · 5.65 FIP	20	SP	5.65	17.2%	21.4%	2.4%	.318	3.96	26.2%	11.6%	199	-1.69	2.85	301	80
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	80
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	79
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	79
Kohl Franklin R 2022 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	17.8%	14.6%	3.3%	.320	5.66	19.9%	7.9%	105	+0.42	4.38	205	79
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	79
Luis Hernandez R 2022 · 4.94 FIP	21	SP	4.94	16.7%	14.0%	2.7%	.311	5.62	21.4%	4.1%	64	+0.68	4.09	109	79
R.J. Freure R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	22	SP-	5.13	21.7%	18.5%	2.8%	.286	6.05	21.4%	4.2%	107	+0.92	5.13	196	78
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	78
Peyton Pallette R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP	5.56	18.0%	15.1%	3.8%	.254	3.91	23.8%	12.0%	201	-1.65	3.54	273	77
Kevin Gowdy R 2019 · 5.31 FIP	21	SP-	5.31	11.1%	17.0%	1.8%	.321	5.50	16.3%	6.0%	130	+0.19	3.11	333	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	9.1	152	22.6%	12.5%	1.11	4.76
Roy Parmelee ('29-'39, 4 WAR*)	5.6	124	24.0%*	12.7%*	1.20*	4.75*
Bobby Witt ('86-'01, 17 WAR*)	12.3	164	22.7%*	11.8%*	1.00*	4.69*
Chuck Estrada ('60-'67, 4 WAR*)	3.8	127	23.1%*	11.6%*	1.08*	4.62*
Jason Bere ('03)	5.6	123	18.4%	12.6%	1.17	5.14
Kazuhisa Ishii ('02-'05, 1 WAR*)	2.8	141	19.8%*	13.6%*	1.14*	4.72*
Edinson Volquez ('20)	7.7	129	19.5%	10.8%	0.93	4.45