Harold Rivas

OF FCL Red Sox

Age 19 R/R 6'2" / 177 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#2101ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Red Sox B…	196	.258/.395/.384	2	18	53	—	.173/.287/.238
2026	18	ROKBOS	198	.241/.345/.429	6	23	45	—	.168/.244/.291
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBBOS	308	.205/.277/.310	5	7	67	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBBOS	53	.215/.288/.330	1	1	72	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBBOS	126	.220/.293/.341	2	3	77	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$1M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed98

ISO80

Whiff%49

Z-Con%40

wRC+38

wOBA37

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 3.5, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 88%

CompsJett Williams (age 19) · Che-Hsuan Lin (age 19) · Gilberto Celestino (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 104 proj PA

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .275 / .307

PA104

HR2

K%29

BB%8

ISO105

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.9M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	196	159	41	6	4	2	35	35	1	18	8	258	395	384	779	126	317	18	18	356	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	198	170	41	6	4	6	24	52	3	23	5	241	345	429	775	188	310	26	12	345	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	196	168	29	4	2	1	26	43	1	18	8	173	287	238	525	65	221	22	13	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	198	179	30	4	3	4	15	75	3	23	5	168	244	291	534	123	247	38	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	196	168	29	4	2	1	26	43	1	18	8	173	287	238	525	65	224	22	13	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	196	159	41	6	4	2	35	35	1	18	8	258	395	384	779	126	317	18	18	356	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	198	179	30	4	3	4	15	75	3	23	5	168	244	291	534	123	257	38	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	—	198	170	41	6	4	6	24	52	3	23	5	241	345	429	775	188	310	26	12	345	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	196	167	29	4	2	1	26	43	1	18	8	174	287	240	527	66	221	22	13	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	198	178	30	4	3	4	15	75	3	23	5	169	244	292	536	124	247	38	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	196	167	29	4	2	1	26	43	1	18	8	174	287	240	527	66	221	22	13	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	198	178	30	4	3	4	15	75	3	23	5	169	244	292	536	124	247	38	8	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	308	277	57	9	3	5	25	88	3	7	1	205	277	310	587	105	279	29	8	267	67	-12	+1	+1	-2	+7	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	BOS	34%	154	138	29	5	1	3	13	43	2	4	1	210	284	324	608	114	282	28	8	275	72	-5	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	BOS	48%	260	233	49	8	2	5	22	72	3	7	1	214	289	335	624	121	283	28	8	282	77	-7	+1	+0	-2	+6	-0.2
2030	22	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	368	330	72	12	3	8	31	100	4	9	2	218	292	344	637	127	285	27	8	287	80	-9	+1	+1	-2	+8	-0.1
2031	23	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	438	393	87	14	4	10	37	118	5	11	3	221	295	351	647	131	286	27	8	291	83	-9	+1	+1	-3	+9	0.0
2032	24	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	481	432	96	16	4	11	41	128	5	12	3	223	297	357	654	134	287	27	9	294	85	-9	+1	+2	-3	+10	0.2
2033	25	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	507	454	101	17	4	12	43	135	5	12	3	223	298	358	656	135	287	27	8	294	85	-9	+1	+3	-3	+11	0.3
2034	26	MLB MLE	BOS	56%	521	466	103	17	4	12	44	138	6	13	3	223	298	358	655	135	287	26	8	294	85	-9	+1	+3	-3	+11	0.3
2035	27	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	525	470	104	17	4	12	44	140	6	12	3	222	297	355	652	133	286	27	8	293	84	-10	+1	+3	-3	+11	0.2
2036	28	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	520	466	103	17	4	12	44	140	5	11	3	220	295	350	645	130	285	27	8	290	82	-11	+1	+2	-3	+11	0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	BOS	34%	53	48	10	2	0	1	4	15	1	1	0	215	288	330	618	115	290	28	8	279	72	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	BOS	48%	126	114	24	4	1	2	10	35	1	3	1	220	293	341	635	122	291	28	8	286	77	-3	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	200	179	40	7	2	4	17	54	2	5	1	223	297	350	647	127	293	27	8	291	80	-5	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	248	222	50	9	2	5	21	67	3	6	1	226	300	358	657	132	294	27	8	295	83	-5	+1	+1	-1	+5	0.0
2032	24	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	272	244	55	10	2	6	23	72	3	7	2	228	302	363	665	135	295	26	8	298	85	-5	+1	+1	-2	+6	0.1
2033	25	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	286	257	59	11	2	7	24	76	3	7	2	229	303	364	667	135	296	27	8	299	85	-5	+1	+1	-2	+6	0.2
2034	26	MLB CTX	BOS	56%	294	264	60	11	2	7	25	78	3	7	2	228	302	364	666	136	295	27	9	299	85	-5	+1	+2	-2	+6	0.2
2035	27	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	291	261	60	11	2	7	25	78	3	7	2	227	301	361	663	134	295	27	9	297	84	-5	+1	+2	-2	+6	0.1
2036	28	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	285	256	57	10	2	6	24	77	3	6	2	225	299	356	656	131	293	27	8	295	82	-6	+0	+1	-2	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2055	1845	415	75	15	45	173	552	22	49	13	225	299	355	654	130	295	27	8	296	79	-42	+5	+8	-12	+45	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	132	24	5	14	55	175	7	15	4	226	301	356	657	130	296	27	8	296	79	-13	+1	+3	-4	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4272	3823	823	134	36	92	368	1162	46	135	35	215	292	341	633	126	282	27	9	285	79	-82	+10	+15	-23	+84	0.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	124	20	5	14	56	177	7	21	5	213	290	337	627	124	279	27	9	285	79	-14	+2	+3	-4	+14	0.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Red Sox · 198 PAwOBA .338 → .234 (−103)K% 26.3% → 37.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.26%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	37.82%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.12%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	7.68%
HBP% /PA	1.52%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	1.12%
Singles /BIP	21.19%	÷1.000	×0.820	×0.996	×1.022	17.69%
Doubles /BIP	5.08%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.996	×1.022	3.73%
Triples /BIP	3.39%	÷1.000	×0.720	×0.996	×1.022	2.49%
Home runs /BIP	5.08%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	4.06%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.

Result: wOBA .338 → .234; ISO .188 → .130; BABIP .310 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Red Sox Blue · 196 PAwOBA .349 → .246 (−103)K% 17.9% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.86%	÷0.997	×1.220	—	—	21.85%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.86%	÷0.959	×0.700	—	×1.022	13.32%
HBP% /PA	0.51%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.37%
Singles /BIP	23.39%	÷0.932	×0.680	×1.006	×1.022	17.55%
Doubles /BIP	4.84%	÷1.059	×0.600	×1.006	×1.022	2.82%
Triples /BIP	3.23%	÷1.150	×0.600	×1.006	×1.022	1.73%
Home runs /BIP	1.61%	÷0.920	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.84%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 86, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 99, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .349 → .246; ISO .126 → .070; BABIP .317 → .221. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael A. Taylorlast yr '25 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,758 PA	5.7	3,758	108	128	232	288	380	+12	+64	13.3	12.9
/162	664	19	23	+2.1	+11.2	2.3	pk7: 13
#2Sam Fuld'07-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,535 PA	2.3	1,535	12	67	230*	314*	336*	-10	+29	3.7	4.0
/162	664	5	29	-4.3	+12.7	1.6	pk7: 4
#3Dustan Mohr'01-'07 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,537 PA	2.3	1,537	49	13	241*	315*	412*	-15	+20	3.8	3.8
/162	664	21	6	-6.6	+8.6	1.6	pk7: 4
#4Larry Stahl'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,889 PA	2.8	1,889	36	22	235*	297*	387*	-16	+11	2.4	2.9
/162	664	13	8	-5.5	+3.9	0.8	pk7: 4
#5Mike Felder'85-'94 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,497 PA	3.8	2,497	14	161	247*	300*	340*	-18	+17	0.9	2.8
/162	664	4	43	-4.9	+4.4	0.2	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.3	2,160	48	52	221	292	351	-13	+30	0.7	0.9
/162	664	15	16	-4.0	+9.4	0.2	pk7: 1
#6Dave McCarty'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,647 PA	2.5	1,647	36	9	233*	295*	365*	-26	+16	-1.1	0.5
/162	664	15	4	-10.5	+6.6	-0.4	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Harold Rivas (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	204/275/307	104	279	2	3	29%	8%	67	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Che-Hsuan Lin 2008 · A	19	41→51	42→40	56→55	40	200/253/311	111	279	8	14	30%	6%	58	-1.7	229/294/317	88	284	6	19	20%	7%	75	-0.5	243/314/319	76	293	5	22	18%	8%	80	-0.1
✕Gilberto Celestino 2018 · A	19	43→53	39→45	53→55	43	206/263/292	86	288	6	12	30%	7%	57	-1.8	220/271/312	92	287	7	10	24%	6%	65	-1.2	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Delino DeShields 2012 · A	19	41→51	40→45	50→65	42	201/260/289	88	279	8	16	30%	6%	56	-1.9	234/302/339	105	318	8	38	27%	8%	83	+0.1	239/313/347	108	322	9	47	26%	8%	87	+0.3
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	36→44	39→50	53→55	48	177/265/262	85	249	7	11	30%	9%	53	-2.1	194/283/299	105	299	9	16	34%	10%	68	-1.0	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→55	55→60	47	200/270/292	91	260	7	13	25%	8%	60	-1.6	205/256/277	72	300	3	25	30%	6%	51	-2.3	240/291/409	169	325	21	27	32%	5%	95	+0.4
✕Yunior Garcia 2019 · A	18	35→45	40→45	52→30	43	176/241/269	92	235	7	10	27%	7%	45	-2.7	192/242/291	99	291	9	7	36%	5%	49	-2.4	228/278/346	118	323	12	2	32%	5%	72	-0.3
✕Joshua Báez 2022 · A	19	40→48	41→55	54→60	39	186/260/283	97	311	8	10	40%	8%	55	-1.9	181/265/292	111	349	10	21	47%	8%	59	-1.6	211/281/393	182	287	24	33	34%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Jefferson Rojas 2024 · A	19	45→48	41→50	52→50	43	221/283/322	101	279	9	15	24%	6%	72	-0.7	222/283/337	115	269	12	16	21%	7%	76	-0.4	225/287/358	133	263	15	18	21%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Echedry Vargas 2024 · A	19	40→47	44→50	53→55	40	202/260/326	123	269	11	15	29%	6%	65	-1.2	215/258/351	136	288	15	14	30%	4%	70	-0.9	218/259/369	151	284	19	13	30%	4%	72	-0.5
●Leandro Castro 2008 · A	19	40→50	39→50	53→50	47	193/257/272	79	233	6	18	20%	7%	51	-2.2	206/247/298	92	258	7	14	22%	4%	53	-2.1	244/286/388	144	268	16	11	16%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	39→49	41→45	56→55	45	194/267/288	94	272	9	17	30%	8%	59	-1.6	221/287/321	100	309	7	21	28%	8%	73	-0.6	269/328/372	103	341	7	29	22%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Junior Lake 2009 · A	19	42→52	38→50	54→55	38	200/247/280	81	281	4	12	30%	5%	48	-2.5	217/255/315	98	324	8	13	34%	4%	59	-1.6	246/294/373	127	337	13	19	30%	6%	87	+0.2
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2019 · A	19	46→56	40→45	53→50	44	219/282/318	99	308	7	14	30%	8%	70	-0.8	209/265/301	92	294	7	10	29%	6%	60	-1.6	251/312/338	87	342	8	12	27%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Noelvi Marte 2021 · A	19	41→51	41→50	49→55	45	201/256/299	98	254	8	12	24%	7%	56	-1.9	233/299/372	139	304	15	16	27%	8%	90	+0.6	241/309/383	142	307	16	19	26%	8%	94	+0.7
✕Jorge Alcantara 2011 · A	19	45	41→45	51→50	43	215/278/316	101	296	7	11	29%	7%	68	-1.0	197/266/293	96	297	7	13	33%	8%	59	-1.6	143/221/238	95	216	5	25	34%	8%	30	-1.0
✕Angel Mateo 2024 · A	19	39→48	40	53→55	43	193/268/278	85	257	8	13	27%	6%	57	-1.8	200/264/292	92	281	8	15	30%	6%	59	-1.7	195/259/288	93	273	8	16	30%	6%	54	-1.3
✕Eudy Pina 2010 · A	19	37→47	38→45	54→55	40	179/256/258	79	274	6	20	35%	7%	49	-2.4	185/243/256	71	263	4	16	30%	5%	42	-2.9	217/270/333	115	305	8	11	30%	5%	67	-0.8
✕Oswald Peraza 2019 · A	19	44→54	35→50	54→60	41	204/271/267	63	292	2	12	29%	6%	55	-1.9	229/284/316	87	301	8	20	25%	6%	71	-0.8	235/294/370	135	296	16	30	26%	6%	85	+0.2
✕Anthony Alford 2014 · A	20	44→52	40→45	55	45	209/282/305	97	298	6	12	30%	8%	68	-1.0	213/286/308	95	348	7	16	37%	9%	70	-0.8	220/302/313	92	336	7	21	33%	9%	75	-0.3

Harold Rivas

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps