Harold Rivas — OGILVIE

Harold RivasOF FCL Red Sox

Age 18 R/R 6'2" / 177 lbs ROK H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION174 act + 116 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†61

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .270 / .298

PA116

HR2

SB6

K%32

BB%9

BABIP273

ISO106

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 43

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER43

scouting grade only

EYE65

scouting grade only

SPEED59

scouting grade only

DEFENSE65

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	196	170	35	4	2	2	24	51	1	18	8	206	308	288	596	82	280	26	12	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	196	159	41	6	4	2	35	35	1	18	8	258	395	384	779	126	317	18	18	356	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	BOS	—	174	156	27	4	3	3	14	69	3	20	5	173	254	295	549	122	282	40	8	239	41	-12	+2	+0	-1	+5	-0.6
YTD	18	ROK	BOS	—	174	148	38	6	4	5	22	48	3	20	5	257	364	453	817	196	344	28	13	362	135	+7	+2	+0	-1	+5	1.3
ROS	18	ROK	BOS	0%	116	104	20	3	1	2	10	37	1	6	1	192	270	298	568	106	282	32	9	265	61	-5	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
ROS	18	MLB	BOS	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		287	—	—	259	56	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	BOS	—	174	157	27	4	3	3	14	69	3	20	5	172	254	293	547	121	279	40	8	239	41	-12	+2	+0	-1	+5	-0.6
TOT	18	ROK	BOS	—	290	260	47	7	4	5	24	106	4	26	6	181	260	296	557	115	278	37	8	249	49	-17	+3	+0	-2	+8	-0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	BOS	34%	307	274	56	9	3	6	26	95	4	9	2	204	283	325	608	120	283	31	8	274	68	-11	+1	+1	-2	+9	-0.2
2028	20	MLB	BOS	48%	420	375	79	13	4	9	37	126	5	11	3	211	290	339	629	128	286	30	9	282	74	-12	+1	+2	-3	+12	-0.0
2029	21	MLB	BOS	54%	502	446	96	16	5	11	44	147	7	13	3	215	296	348	643	132	287	29	9	287	78	-12	+1	+2	-3	+14	0.2
2030	22	MLB	BOS	57%	559	497	107	18	5	13	49	162	8	14	3	215	296	350	646	135	288	29	9	291	81	-12	+2	+2	-3	+16	0.4
2031	23	MLB	BOS	58%	597	531	114	19	5	14	53	172	8	15	3	215	296	348	644	134	289	29	9	293	82	-12	+2	+2	-4	+17	0.5
2032	24	MLB	BOS	57%	622	552	121	20	6	15	56	179	9	15	4	219	301	359	660	139	289	29	9	294	83	-12	+1	+2	-4	+18	0.6
2033	25	MLB	BOS	57%	632	561	122	20	6	15	57	181	9	16	4	217	300	355	655	137	289	29	9	295	84	-11	+2	+2	-4	+18	0.7
2027	19	MLB	BOS	34%	105	94	19	3	1	2	9	32	1	3	1	202	279	319	598	117	288	30	9	268	64	-4	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.1
2028	20	MLB	BOS	48%	204	181	39	7	2	4	18	61	3	6	1	215	297	343	640	127	291	30	9	276	69	-7	+1	+1	-1	+6	-0.1
2029	21	MLB	BOS	54%	272	242	52	9	2	6	24	80	4	7	2	215	296	343	639	128	292	29	9	281	73	-8	+1	+1	-2	+8	-0.1
2030	22	MLB	BOS	57%	316	281	62	11	3	7	28	92	4	8	2	221	300	356	656	135	293	29	9	284	76	-9	+1	+1	-2	+9	0.0
2031	23	MLB	BOS	58%	344	305	68	12	3	8	31	99	5	9	2	223	305	361	666	138	294	29	9	286	77	-9	+1	+1	-2	+10	0.1
2032	24	MLB	BOS	57%	354	314	70	12	3	9	32	102	5	9	2	223	305	366	671	143	295	29	9	287	78	-9	+1	+1	-2	+10	0.2
2033	25	MLB	BOS	57%	358	318	71	12	3	9	32	103	5	9	2	223	304	365	669	142	295	29	9	288	79	-9	+1	+1	-2	+10	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1953	1736	381	66	17	45	174	569	27	51	12	219	301	355	655	135	297	29	9	284	75	-55	+5	+7	-12	+55	0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	578	127	22	6	15	58	189	9	17	4	220	301	356	658	137	296	29	9	284	75	-18	+2	+2	-4	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	3951	3510	750	122	37	87	356	1150	52	117	31	214	296	344	639	130	289	29	9	288	78	-97	+11	+14	-24	+112	1.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	123	20	6	14	59	189	9	19	5	213	296	341	638	128	289	29	9	288	78	-16	+2	+2	-4	+18	0.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	196	159	41	6	4	2	35	35	1	18	8	258	395	384	779	126	317	18	18	356	130	+7	+0	—	—	+6	1.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jake Marisnicklast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,213 PA	10	2,213	63	81	227	280	381	+5	+54	8.3	8.2
	/162	664	19	24	227	280	381	+1.4	+16.2	2.5	pk7: 8
#2Peter Bourjoslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,241 PA	8	2,241	42	66	241	298	382	-0	+38	7.4	7.5
	/162	664	12	20	241	298	382	-0.1	+11.3	2.2	pk7: 8
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Tony Gwynn Jr.last yr '14 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,749 PA	7	1,749	7	77	239	310	313	+1	+35	4.1	4.1
	/162	664	3	29	239	310	313	+0.5	+13.1	1.6	pk7: 4
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#6Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	2,158	48	55	215	292	346	-13	+30	0.2	0.5
	/162	664	15	17	215	292	346	-4.0	+9.2	0.1	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Harold Rivas (OGILVIE)	18	34→44	32→43	57→59	65	181/260/296	115	278	5	26	37%	8%	49	-0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	43→53	38→45	54→55	48	203/273/292	90	270	5	13	25%	8%	56	-1.3	209/261/295	86	283	6	11	27%	6%	52	-1.6	240/311/319	79	317	7	14	25%	9%	75	-0.0
●Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→50	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	55	-1.4	199/251/270	71	293	3	25	31%	6%	40	-2.4	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Juan Lagares 2007 · A	18	42→52	40→45	53→50	41	203/261/302	99	285	6	11	30%	6%	53	-1.5	203/241/283	80	277	4	10	27%	4%	39	-2.5	261/302/366	105	316	7	13	19%	4%	83	+0.3
✕Francisco Acuna 2018 · A	18	39→49	37→45	55→50	55	183/284/257	74	242	4	15	24%	11%	54	-1.4	194/267/263	69	267	3	9	26%	8%	47	-1.9	223/293/322	99	294	9	16	26%	7%	70	-0.2
✕Yunior Garcia 2019 · A	18	37→47	43→45	52→30	40	187/247/297	110	260	10	10	31%	6%	47	-1.9	196/245/301	105	305	10	7	37%	5%	46	-2.0	224/273/340	115	327	12	2	33%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	41→47	41→55	48→50	48	200/282/301	101	267	9	14	27%	9%	64	-0.8	211/283/328	117	302	11	8	32%	8%	71	-0.3	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→46	41→45	56→55	43	214/285/313	99	288	7	14	27%	7%	68	-0.5	203/314/320	117	299	9	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	201/310/335	134	289	10	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	43	40→50	55	41	205/263/297	92	301	7	14	33%	7%	53	-1.5	187/262/281	94	277	7	12	32%	8%	50	-1.8	192/266/303	111	286	10	18	34%	8%	55	-0.5
✕Jose Monserrate 2023 · A	18	47	38→40	51→50	46	221/290/309	87	287	5	13	23%	7%	68	-0.5	215/293/282	67	300	3	21	27%	9%	63	-0.9	180/265/225	45	288	1	34	34%	9%	34	-0.6
✕Cristian Hernández 2022 · A	18	45→46	38→45	55→60	46	212/281/288	76	301	6	19	30%	8%	59	-1.1	193/251/266	73	311	6	18	37%	7%	40	-2.4	212/279/312	100	297	8	33	29%	8%	61	-0.7
✕Yordalin Peña 2023 · A	18	41→39	40→55	55	37	198/247/291	93	283	6	10	31%	5%	45	-2.1	188/247/280	92	276	6	12	32%	6%	42	-2.3	189/253/317	128	293	11	17	37%	7%	53	-0.7
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2022 · A	18	43→53	46→50	52→45	43	216/277/348	132	271	12	10	25%	6%	73	-0.1	235/292/359	124	285	14	8	22%	5%	82	+0.5	253/307/382	129	303	14	6	21%	5%	91	+0.9
●Moisés Sierra 2007 · A	18	42→52	39→50	52→50	42	203/266/292	89	271	6	13	26%	6%	54	-1.4	205/253/299	94	283	8	9	29%	4%	50	-1.8	248/314/378	130	302	14	15	22%	7%	93	+0.9
✕Athanael Duarte 2023 · A	18	39	45→40	53→45	44	200/265/322	122	263	12	14	28%	7%	61	-1.0	204/268/306	102	270	9	10	27%	7%	58	-1.2	186/255/279	93	257	8	7	29%	7%	44	-0.7
✕Darell Hernaiz 2021 · A	19	45→55	39→45	52→50	44	211/276/297	86	310	7	9	32%	8%	59	-1.1	239/285/329	90	301	8	17	22%	5%	70	-0.3	252/302/359	107	305	10	17	20%	6%	82	+0.4
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	43→46	38→45	47→55	49	203/297/279	76	256	6	12	22%	8%	66	-0.6	211/299/308	97	254	9	16	20%	9%	72	-0.2	216/299/322	106	259	12	19	21%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	39→49	41→45	56→55	45	193/266/287	94	270	9	17	30%	8%	53	-1.5	217/281/315	98	303	7	21	28%	8%	66	-0.6	259/316/359	100	331	7	29	22%	7%	87	+0.7
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2019 · A	18	42→48	39→55	51→55	40	205/251/286	81	270	6	16	26%	5%	45	-2.1	206/254/321	115	262	11	14	25%	5%	56	-1.3	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
✕Jorge Mateo 2013 · A	18	44→46	40→50	51→65	48	211/282/302	91	281	6	10	26%	9%	63	-0.9	210/268/306	96	286	7	34	27%	7%	58	-1.2	222/263/355	133	288	13	49	27%	5%	66	-0.2
✕Angel Aponte 2018 · A	18	43	40→45	53→55	42	206/274/301	94	284	6	13	28%	6%	59	-1.1	206/265/304	98	285	8	19	29%	6%	56	-1.3	202/262/292	90	286	7	25	30%	6%	50	-0.7