Harold Rivas — OGILVIE

Harold RivasOF FCL Red Sox

Age 18 R/R 6'2" / 177 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION198 act + 18 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.118 / .167 / .118

PA18

HR0

K%33

BB%6

BABIP275

ISO107

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 44 / POW 43

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT44

scouting grade only

POWER43

scouting grade only

EYE65

scouting grade only

SPEED59

scouting grade only

DEFENSE65

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	196	159	41	6	4	2	35	35	1	18	8	258	395	384	779	126	317	18	18	356	127	+6	+0	—	—	+4	1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	196	171	33	4	2	2	23	51	1	18	8	193	292	275	567	82	262	26	12	260	62	-9	+0	—	—	+4	-0.4
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	196	171	33	4	2	2	23	51	1	18	8	193	292	275	567	82	261	26	12	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	196	159	41	6	4	2	35	35	1	18	8	258	395	384	779	126	317	18	18	356	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	196	170	33	4	2	2	23	51	1	18	8	194	292	276	569	82	262	26	12	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Blue	—	196	170	33	4	2	2	23	51	1	18	8	194	292	276	569	82	262	26	12	260	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	BOS	—	198	179	29	4	3	4	15	75	3	23	5	162	239	285	523	123	248	38	8	230	42	-14	+3	+0	-1	+4	-0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK RAW	BOS	—	198	170	41	6	4	6	24	52	3	23	5	241	345	429	775	188	310	26	12	345	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	18	ROK MLE	BOS	0%	18	17	2	0	0	0	1	6	0	1	0	118	167	118	284		272	33	6	261	63	-1	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	18	ROK MLE	BOS	—	216	196	31	4	3	4	16	81	3	24	5	158	233	270	503	112	241	38	7	233	44	-15	+3	+0	-1	+5	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	BOS	34%	262	235	47	8	2	5	22	79	3	8	2	200	277	315	592	115	276	30	8	272	70	-9	+1	+1	-2	+6	-0.4
2028	20	MLB MLE	BOS	48%	385	344	71	12	3	8	33	113	5	11	2	206	285	328	614	122	279	29	9	280	76	-11	+1	+1	-2	+8	-0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	477	427	90	15	4	11	41	137	6	13	3	211	289	342	631	131	280	29	9	286	79	-12	+1	+2	-3	+10	-0.1
2030	22	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	542	483	104	17	5	13	47	153	7	14	3	215	294	352	646	137	282	28	9	289	82	-12	+2	+2	-3	+12	0.0
2031	23	MLB MLE	BOS	58%	586	522	112	19	5	14	51	165	8	15	3	215	294	351	645	136	282	28	9	291	83	-12	+2	+2	-4	+13	0.1
2032	24	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	615	548	118	20	5	15	54	173	8	15	3	215	295	352	647	137	283	28	9	293	84	-12	+2	+2	-4	+13	0.2
2033	25	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	627	559	122	20	6	16	55	176	8	15	3	218	297	361	659	143	283	28	9	293	85	-11	+2	+2	-4	+14	0.3
2034	26	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	634	564	123	20	6	16	56	177	9	16	3	218	299	360	659	142	283	28	9	294	85	-11	+2	+2	-4	+14	0.3
2035	27	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	634	564	122	20	6	16	56	178	9	15	3	216	297	358	655	142	283	28	9	294	85	-11	+2	+2	-4	+14	0.3
2036	28	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	629	559	120	20	5	16	56	177	9	15	3	215	296	354	651	140	282	28	9	293	84	-12	+2	+2	-4	+14	0.2
2037	29	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	619	550	117	19	5	15	56	176	8	14	3	213	295	347	642	135	281	28	9	291	83	-13	+2	+1	-4	+13	-0.0
2027	19	MLB CTX	BOS	34%	90	81	17	3	1	2	8	27	1	3	1	210	289	346	635	136	280	30	9	264	70	-3	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	BOS	48%	187	167	35	6	1	4	16	55	2	5	1	210	286	329	616	120	283	29	9	272	76	-5	+1	+1	-1	+4	-0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	259	232	50	9	2	6	22	74	3	7	1	216	292	349	641	134	284	29	8	277	79	-6	+1	+1	-2	+6	-0.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	307	273	58	10	2	7	27	87	4	8	2	212	293	341	633	128	286	28	9	280	82	-7	+1	+1	-2	+7	0.0
2031	23	MLB CTX	BOS	58%	337	300	65	11	3	8	29	95	5	8	2	217	296	353	650	137	286	28	9	282	83	-7	+1	+1	-2	+7	0.1
2032	24	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	350	311	68	12	3	8	31	98	5	9	2	219	300	354	653	135	287	28	9	284	84	-7	+1	+1	-2	+8	0.1
2033	25	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	356	317	70	12	3	9	31	100	5	9	2	221	300	363	663	142	287	28	9	285	85	-6	+1	+1	-2	+8	0.1
2034	26	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	359	319	70	12	3	9	32	101	5	9	2	219	301	361	661	141	287	28	9	285	85	-6	+1	+1	-2	+8	0.2
2035	27	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	352	313	69	12	3	9	31	99	5	9	2	220	301	364	665	144	287	28	9	285	85	-6	+1	+1	-2	+8	0.2
2036	28	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	345	306	67	12	3	8	31	97	5	8	2	219	301	356	657	137	286	28	9	284	84	-6	+1	+1	-2	+7	0.1
2037	29	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	331	294	63	11	2	8	30	94	4	8	2	214	296	347	643	133	285	28	9	282	83	-7	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3273	2913	632	110	26	78	288	927	44	83	19	217	297	353	650	136	288	28	9	282	82	-67	+9	+11	-20	+71	0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	125	22	5	15	57	184	9	16	4	216	297	349	645	133	286	28	9	282	82	-13	+2	+2	-4	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6224	5543	1181	194	54	147	551	1761	81	170	39	213	294	347	641	134	282	28	9	289	82	-126	+18	+21	-36	+131	0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	123	20	6	15	58	184	8	18	4	212	293	345	638	133	282	28	9	289	82	-14	+2	+2	-4	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Jake Marisnicklast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,213 PA	3.3	2,213	63	81	227	280	381	+5	+54	8.3	8.1
/162	664	19	24	+1.4	+16.2	2.5	pk7: 8
#3Peter Bourjoslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,241 PA	3.4	2,241	42	66	241	298	382	-0	+38	7.4	7.5
/162	664	12	20	-0.1	+11.3	2.2	pk7: 8
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	5.2	3,447	82	86	215	292	351	-21	+42	1.2	1.3
/162	664	16	16	-4.0	+8.1	0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Harold Rivas (OGILVIE)	18	34→44	32→43	57→59	65	192/267/302	111	272	3	9	31%	8%	63	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	43→52	38→45	54→55	48	203/273/292	90	270	5	13	25%	8%	61	-1.5	209/261/295	86	283	6	11	27%	6%	57	-1.8	234/311/308	74	302	5	10	22%	9%	76	-0.2
✕Jorge Mateo 2013 · A	18	44→48	40→50	51→65	48	211/282/302	91	281	6	10	26%	9%	67	-1.1	211/270/308	97	287	7	34	27%	7%	64	-1.3	213/255/343	130	274	13	52	27%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Yunior Garcia 2019 · A	18	37→47	43→50	52→30	40	187/247/297	110	260	10	10	31%	6%	53	-2.1	196/245/302	106	303	10	7	37%	5%	53	-2.1	225/276/346	121	319	13	2	32%	5%	71	-0.3
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	41→46	41→50	48→50	48	200/282/301	101	267	9	14	27%	9%	68	-1.0	209/282/325	116	301	11	8	32%	8%	73	-0.6	222/288/367	145	291	16	4	28%	6%	82	-0.0
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→44	41→45	56→55	44	216/286/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	206/315/327	121	297	9	23	30%	12%	86	+0.3	203/309/335	132	285	10	26	29%	12%	83	+0.1
✕Juan Lagares 2007 · A	18	42→52	40→45	53→50	41	203/261/302	99	285	6	11	30%	6%	59	-1.7	203/241/283	80	277	4	10	27%	4%	46	-2.6	268/308/373	106	324	7	13	19%	4%	89	+0.3
✕Francisco Acuna 2018 · A	18	39→48	37→45	55→50	55	183/284/257	74	242	4	15	24%	11%	59	-1.6	194/267/263	69	267	3	9	26%	8%	53	-2.1	217/289/313	96	287	8	16	26%	7%	70	-0.4
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	42→45	39→45	47→55	48	202/296/282	81	254	6	12	22%	8%	70	-0.9	210/296/305	95	253	9	16	20%	9%	74	-0.5	215/297/320	105	260	12	19	21%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Cristian Hernández 2022 · A	18	45→46	39→45	55→60	46	214/284/299	85	303	7	19	30%	9%	68	-1.0	195/254/269	74	314	6	18	37%	7%	49	-2.4	210/276/309	99	295	8	34	30%	8%	64	-1.1
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	43→45	39→50	55	42	205/265/294	89	297	6	14	32%	7%	59	-1.7	186/260/273	87	276	6	12	32%	8%	53	-2.1	195/272/312	117	292	11	20	34%	9%	64	-0.5
●Moisés Sierra 2007 · A	18	42→52	39→50	52→50	42	203/266/292	89	271	6	13	26%	6%	59	-1.6	205/253/299	94	283	8	9	29%	4%	55	-1.9	249/315/369	120	307	12	15	22%	7%	92	+0.6
✕Jonathan Galvez 2009 · A	18	45→48	39→45	51→55	53	209/310/290	81	290	7	9	27%	11%	76	-0.4	212/285/327	115	307	10	14	32%	8%	74	-0.5	235/283/350	115	329	10	23	30%	5%	76	-0.3
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2022 · A	18	43→53	46→50	51→45	43	216/277/350	134	270	12	10	25%	6%	77	-0.3	235/294/358	123	286	13	8	22%	5%	85	+0.2	253/307/381	128	303	13	6	20%	5%	92	+0.6
✕Athanael Duarte 2023 · A	18	39	42→40	53→45	45	194/262/300	106	257	10	14	28%	8%	59	-1.6	201/266/295	94	268	8	10	26%	7%	60	-1.6	184/255/271	87	254	7	7	29%	7%	49	-0.8
✕Darell Hernaiz 2021 · A	19	45→55	39→45	52→50	44	211/276/297	86	310	7	9	32%	8%	63	-1.3	236/282/327	91	298	8	17	23%	5%	72	-0.7	253/310/346	93	295	7	12	16%	7%	85	+0.2
✕Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→55	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	60	-1.6	202/254/274	72	296	2	25	30%	6%	49	-2.4	242/294/410	167	331	20	27	32%	6%	94	+0.4
●Leandro Castro 2008 · A	19	43→53	42→50	53→50	44	212/271/311	99	261	10	18	23%	6%	65	-1.2	211/250/308	97	266	8	14	23%	4%	56	-1.9	244/286/386	143	268	16	11	16%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	39→49	41→45	56→55	45	193/266/287	94	270	9	17	30%	8%	58	-1.7	218/283/318	100	304	7	21	28%	8%	71	-0.8	258/316/357	98	327	7	29	22%	7%	89	+0.4
✕Jose Monserrate 2023 · A	18	47	38→40	50	45	221/288/307	86	288	5	13	24%	7%	71	-0.8	215/291/282	67	299	3	21	26%	8%	66	-1.1	187/271/231	44	298	1	34	34%	9%	45	-0.6
✕Noelvi Marte 2021 · A	19	44→53	44→50	50→55	42	218/268/339	121	285	11	12	27%	6%	70	-0.8	228/293/365	137	300	15	16	28%	8%	86	+0.3	232/299/370	138	298	16	19	26%	8%	87	+0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps