Harold Rivas — OGILVIE

Harold RivasOF DSL Red Sox Blue

Age 18 R/R 6'2" / 177 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 4.2 · 2034

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.210 / .290 / .326

PA166

HR3

K%29

BB%9

MLB%4%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

40↗44

PWR

30↗38

SPD

65↘60

FLD

70→70

EYE

65→65

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.7peak

2034

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+3.4	$32M	+$31M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+3.7	$35M	+$34M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+4.0	$39M	+$38M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$8M	+4.2	$43M	+$34M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+4.2	$44M	+$30M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$19M	+4.0	$43M	+$24M
Totals		$44M		$236M	+$192M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	196	170	35	4	2	2	24	51	1	18	8	.206	.308	.288	.596	.082	.280	26	12	.266	62	-8	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.4
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	MLB	BOS	166	148	31	5	1	3	15	48	2	3	1	.209	.291	.318	.608	.108	.288	29	9	.282	74	-5	+0	+1	-1	+5	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	19	MLB 14%	BOS	250	220	51	9	2	6	25	68	3	6	2	.232	.319	.373	.691	.141	.302	27	10	.308	94	-2	+0	+2	-2	+7	0.6
2028	20	MLB 31%	BOS	376	328	78	13	2	10	40	98	5	10	3	.238	.330	.381	.711	.143	.307	26	11	.321	104	+2	+1	+3	-2	+11	1.4
2029	21	MLB 51%	BOS	471	410	99	17	3	13	52	120	6	13	3	.241	.335	.393	.728	.151	.308	25	11	.330	110	+6	+1	+4	-3	+13	2.2
2030	22	MLB 73%	BOS	538	465	115	19	3	17	61	133	7	15	4	.247	.343	.411	.754	.163	.308	25	11	.337	116	+10	+1	+4	-3	+15	2.8
2031	23	MLB 93%	BOS	583	502	126	21	4	19	68	141	8	16	4	.251	.349	.422	.772	.171	.308	24	12	.343	121	+14	+2	+5	-3	+17	3.4
2032	24	MLB	BOS	613	526	132	22	4	20	73	146	9	16	4	.251	.352	.422	.774	.171	.308	24	12	.347	124	+17	+2	+5	-4	+17	3.7
2033	25	MLB	BOS	629	538	136	23	4	21	77	149	9	16	4	.253	.356	.428	.783	.175	.309	24	12	.350	126	+19	+2	+5	-4	+18	4.0
2034	26	MLB	BOS	637	544	138	23	4	22	79	151	9	16	3	.254	.358	.432	.790	.178	.309	24	12	.352	128	+20	+2	+5	-4	+18	4.2
2035	27	MLB	BOS	638	544	138	23	4	22	80	152	9	16	3	.254	.359	.432	.791	.178	.309	24	13	.352	128	+20	+2	+5	-4	+18	4.2
2036	28	MLB	BOS	633	540	137	23	4	22	79	152	9	15	3	.254	.358	.433	.792	.180	.309	24	12	.351	127	+19	+2	+4	-4	+18	4.0
2037	29	MLB	BOS	623	530	133	22	4	21	79	151	9	15	2	.251	.358	.426	.784	.175	.308	24	13	.349	125	+18	+2	+3	-4	+18	3.8
2038	30	MLB	BOS	613	523	129	21	4	20	77	151	8	14	2	.247	.352	.417	.769	.170	.307	25	13	.346	123	+16	+2	+3	-4	+17	3.5
2039	31	MLB	BOS	598	510	125	21	3	19	75	150	8	13	1	.245	.351	.410	.761	.165	.306	25	13	.342	120	+13	+2	+2	-4	+17	3.2
2040	32	MLB	BOS	580	494	120	20	3	18	73	148	8	12	0	.243	.350	.405	.754	.162	.304	26	13	.337	116	+11	+2	+1	-3	+16	2.8
2041	33	MLB	BOS	550	469	112	18	3	17	69	144	7	11	0	.239	.345	.399	.744	.160	.303	26	13	.332	112	+7	+2	+0	-3	+16	2.3
2042	34	MLB	BOS	503	429	100	16	3	14	63	136	6	11	0	.233	.339	.382	.722	.149	.301	27	13	.325	107	+4	+2	-1	-3	+14	1.7
2043	35	MLB	BOS	446	382	86	14	2	12	55	125	6	10	0	.225	.332	.366	.698	.141	.299	28	12	.317	101	+0	+2	-2	-3	+13	1.1
2044	36	MLB	BOS	385	330	72	11	2	10	47	112	5	9	0	.218	.325	.355	.679	.136	.296	29	12	.308	94	-3	+2	-3	-2	+11	0.5
2045	37	MLB	BOS	320	274	58	9	2	7	39	96	4	7	0	.212	.319	.336	.654	.124	.292	30	12	.298	86	-5	+1	-4	-2	+9	-0.1
2046	38	MLB	BOS	250	215	43	6	1	5	30	77	3	6	0	.200	.306	.307	.613	.107	.287	31	12	.288	78	-6	+1	-6	-2	+7	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			10598	9091	2194	360	64	320	1280	2699	141	268	47	.241	.344	.401	.745	.159	.306	25	12	.334	114	+166	+35	+36	-64	+300	48.3
/ 162G	—			650	558	135	22	4	20	79	166	9	16	3	.242	.346	.403	.749	.161	.307	26	12	.334	114	+10	+2	+2	-4	+18	2.9

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Blue	196	159	41	6	4	2	35	35	1	18	8	.258	.395	.384	.779	.126	.317	18	18	.356	130	+7	+0	—	—	+6	1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Harold Rivas (OGILVIE)	18	40→44	30→38	65→60	65	.210/.290/.326	.116	.288	3	3	29%	9%	74	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Julio Rodríguez 2019 · A	18	47→56	43→60	59→55	46	.228/.289/.349	.121	.291	8	9	24%	7%	77	+0.1	.249/.303/.399	.150	.321	15	8	26%	6%	97	+1.5	.288/.348/.497	.209	.353	27	29	25%	7%	136	+3.8
✕Ronarsy Ledesma 2011 · A	18	44	44→45	52→50	41	.218/.277/.333	.115	.291	11	9	28%	6%	69	-0.4	.218/.286/.320	.102	.285	6	11	25%	6%	69	-0.4	.226/.280/.337	.111	.291	6	11	23%	4%	69	-0.2
●Jackson Chourio 2022 · A	18	44→54	42→55	49→55	45	.217/.279/.319	.102	.277	10	10	25%	7%	66	-0.6	.233/.280/.389	.156	.311	18	19	30%	6%	85	+0.7	.261/.307/.430	.168	.314	19	26	23%	6%	101	+1.8
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2022 · A	18	43→53	45→50	51→45	43	.217/.278/.347	.131	.273	12	9	25%	6%	73	-0.1	.235/.293/.357	.122	.286	13	8	22%	5%	82	+0.5	.254/.307/.383	.129	.303	13	6	20%	5%	92	+0.9
●Franmil Reyes 2013 · A	18	42→52	40→65	50→45	42	.204/.266/.299	.095	.285	6	10	29%	7%	55	-1.4	.208/.259/.302	.094	.287	7	6	28%	6%	53	-1.5	.256/.325/.480	.224	.314	34	0	29%	9%	126	+2.6
●Trevor Story 2012 · A	19	42→52	43→65	54→55	44	.209/.272/.318	.108	.282	10	12	29%	7%	63	-0.8	.193/.253/.326	.133	.287	13	12	36%	7%	57	-1.2	.270/.336/.500	.231	.327	29	25	26%	8%	134	+3.6
✕Ravel Santana 2010 · A	18	40	42→50	48→55	43	.195/.271/.297	.102	.274	9	9	31%	8%	58	-1.2	.218/.289/.357	.139	.282	16	15	27%	8%	81	+0.4	.220/.291/.383	.163	.271	20	20	26%	8%	85	+0.3
●Moisés Sierra 2007 · A	18	42→52	39→50	52→50	42	.205/.268/.293	.089	.273	6	13	26%	6%	55	-1.4	.206/.254/.299	.093	.281	8	9	29%	4%	50	-1.7	.250/.316/.378	.129	.306	14	15	22%	7%	94	+1.0
●Juan Lagares 2007 · A	18	43→53	40→45	53→50	41	.205/.263/.303	.098	.287	6	11	30%	6%	54	-1.4	.197/.235/.278	.081	.267	4	10	27%	4%	36	-2.7	.270/.305/.380	.110	.342	6	13	22%	4%	87	+0.7
●Isaac Paredes 2017 · A	18	46→51	38→60	53→40	45	.219/.265/.307	.088	.265	4	7	18%	5%	56	-1.3	.219/.282/.331	.112	.255	11	3	18%	6%	71	-0.3	.245/.349/.440	.195	.261	25	1	17%	11%	126	+3.2
✕Gilberto Celestino 2017 · A	18	43→52	39→45	54→50	48	.204/.274/.294	.090	.273	5	13	26%	8%	57	-1.2	.209/.262/.295	.086	.282	6	11	27%	6%	52	-1.6	.239/.310/.323	.084	.313	8	14	24%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	42→46	41→50	48→45	47	.202/.283/.303	.101	.271	9	13	27%	9%	65	-0.7	.209/.282/.326	.117	.298	11	8	31%	8%	69	-0.4	.224/.290/.376	.152	.290	17	4	28%	6%	83	+0.5
●José Pirela 2008 · A	18	44→54	39→55	50	48	.213/.278/.296	.083	.259	7	12	20%	7%	59	-1.1	.219/.269/.290	.071	.274	3	11	20%	6%	53	-1.5	.263/.313/.438	.175	.307	19	8	21%	6%	108	+1.8
✕Jose Paez 2013 · A	19	47	39→45	51→50	42	.223/.278/.315	.092	.300	5	13	26%	6%	64	-0.8	.211/.257/.296	.085	.311	4	11	32%	5%	50	-1.8	.178/.220/.246	.068	.283	3	12	36%	4%	17	-1.1
●Esteury Ruiz 2017 · A	18	46→56	42→50	47→70	43	.224/.273/.341	.117	.278	8	11	22%	5%	69	-0.4	.213/.260/.330	.117	.311	9	24	33%	5%	60	-1.0	.264/.338/.396	.132	.327	13	74	22%	6%	108	+1.6
✕Dorssys Paulino 2013 · A	18	48→50	45	56→45	42	.237/.279/.374	.136	.302	11	10	25%	5%	79	+0.3	.218/.261/.315	.097	.284	6	8	24%	5%	56	-1.3	.238/.292/.344	.106	.313	9	8	26%	6%	75	-0.0
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45	41→55	55	43	.216/.285/.315	.099	.290	7	13	27%	7%	68	-0.5	.204/.313/.323	.119	.295	10	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	.202/.308/.336	.135	.284	11	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
●Davis Schneider 2018 · A	19	40→44	41→55	48→50	50	.198/.276/.300	.102	.259	8	6	26%	9%	60	-1.0	.193/.268/.290	.097	.299	8	7	35%	8%	54	-1.4	.213/.322/.409	.196	.275	24	9	30%	12%	106	+1.6
✕Yunior Garcia 2019 · A	18	38→48	42→50	52→30	40	.190/.250/.299	.109	.265	10	10	31%	6%	49	-1.8	.194/.244/.301	.107	.299	10	7	37%	5%	46	-2.0	.227/.278/.348	.120	.320	13	2	32%	5%	69	-0.2
✕Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	42→52	40→50	54→60	46	.202/.270/.293	.091	.264	7	13	25%	8%	56	-1.3	.205/.257/.275	.070	.291	3	24	28%	6%	44	-2.1	.250/.300/.402	.152	.328	16	23	28%	6%	93	+0.7

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)