Angel Mateo
OF Charleston RiverDogs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | A/INTL2 orgs | 528 | .220/.308/.337 | 9 | 28 | 46 | — | .172/.252/.270 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+/ATB | 480 | .275/.347/.378 | 7 | 17 | 67 | — | .231/.292/.312 |
| 2026 | 21 | A+/ATB | 276 | .226/.314/.379 | 7 | 11 | 47 | — | .178/.241/.297 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBTB | 408 | .202/.263/.299 | 6 | 9 | 59 | -0.5 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBTB | 73 | .209/.271/.315 | 1 | 2 | 65 | -0.2 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBTB | 136 | .213/.276/.326 | 3 | 3 | 70 | -0.3 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 210 | 171 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 36 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 269 | 399 | 433 | 832 | 164 | 300 | 17 | 13 | 375 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 45 | 41 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 244 | 311 | 293 | 604 | 49 | 370 | 31 | 7 | 281 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | FCL Rays | — | 197 | 172 | 44 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 36 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 256 | 347 | 390 | 736 | 134 | 301 | 18 | 7 | 334 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 409 | 352 | 79 | 24 | 0 | 6 | 43 | 104 | 10 | 26 | 6 | 224 | 326 | 344 | 670 | 119 | 297 | 25 | 11 | 306 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | INTL | Perth Heat | — | 119 | 111 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 248 | 315 | 563 | 108 | 220 | 16 | 3 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 92 | 79 | 19 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 241 | 341 | 354 | 695 | 114 | 277 | 15 | 8 | 317 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 388 | 347 | 98 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 71 | 7 | 16 | 7 | 282 | 348 | 383 | 731 | 101 | 333 | 18 | 7 | 327 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 122 | 110 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 200 | 267 | 309 | 576 | 109 | 256 | 26 | 7 | 259 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 154 | 133 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 35 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 248 | 351 | 436 | 787 | 188 | 301 | 23 | 12 | 352 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 210 | 178 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 45 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 163 | 284 | 236 | 520 | 73 | 192 | 21 | 10 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 45 | 42 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 190 | 244 | 238 | 483 | 48 | 334 | 42 | 4 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | FCL Rays | — | 197 | 177 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 52 | 10 | 12 | 0 | 186 | 265 | 277 | 542 | 90 | 237 | 26 | 5 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 409 | 366 | 63 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 144 | 10 | 26 | 6 | 172 | 252 | 270 | 522 | 98 | 252 | 35 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 92 | 81 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 185 | 275 | 272 | 546 | 86 | 225 | 20 | 5 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 388 | 355 | 86 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 96 | 7 | 16 | 7 | 242 | 296 | 321 | 617 | 79 | 306 | 25 | 5 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Bowling Green Hot Rods | — | 122 | 114 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 42 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 149 | 192 | 237 | 429 | 88 | 212 | 34 | 4 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Charleston RiverDogs | — | 154 | 139 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 48 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 201 | 279 | 345 | 625 | 144 | 271 | 31 | 8 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 210 | 178 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 45 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 163 | 284 | 236 | 520 | 73 | 197 | 21 | 10 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 210 | 171 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 27 | 36 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 269 | 399 | 433 | 832 | 164 | 300 | 17 | 13 | 375 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 218 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 71 | 11 | 15 | 1 | 183 | 261 | 261 | 523 | 78 | 255 | 29 | 5 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 242 | 213 | 54 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 50 | 11 | 15 | 1 | 254 | 340 | 371 | 711 | 117 | 312 | 21 | 7 | 324 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 472 | 80 | 23 | 0 | 7 | 38 | 185 | 12 | 28 | 7 | 169 | 249 | 263 | 512 | 93 | 255 | 35 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 528 | 463 | 102 | 25 | 1 | 9 | 47 | 123 | 12 | 28 | 7 | 220 | 308 | 337 | 645 | 117 | 276 | 23 | 9 | 293 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 480 | 436 | 102 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 114 | 12 | 17 | 7 | 234 | 294 | 317 | 610 | 83 | 299 | 24 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 480 | 426 | 117 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 85 | 12 | 17 | 7 | 275 | 347 | 378 | 725 | 103 | 323 | 18 | 7 | 325 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 253 | 46 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 90 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 182 | 245 | 304 | 549 | 123 | 252 | 33 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 276 | 243 | 55 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 67 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 226 | 314 | 379 | 692 | 152 | 281 | 24 | 10 | 311 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Tampa Bay | — | 210 | 178 | 29 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 45 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 163 | 284 | 236 | 520 | 73 | 192 | 21 | 10 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 242 | 217 | 40 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 71 | 11 | 15 | 1 | 184 | 261 | 263 | 524 | 78 | 255 | 29 | 5 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 473 | 80 | 23 | 0 | 7 | 38 | 185 | 12 | 28 | 7 | 169 | 249 | 262 | 511 | 93 | 252 | 35 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 480 | 440 | 102 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 114 | 12 | 17 | 7 | 232 | 294 | 314 | 608 | 82 | 290 | 24 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 253 | 46 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 90 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 182 | 245 | 304 | 549 | 123 | 245 | 33 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 473 | 80 | 23 | 0 | 7 | 38 | 185 | 12 | 28 | 7 | 169 | 249 | 262 | 511 | 93 | 252 | 35 | 7 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 480 | 440 | 102 | 19 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 114 | 12 | 17 | 7 | 232 | 294 | 314 | 608 | 82 | 290 | 24 | 5 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 276 | 253 | 46 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 90 | 3 | 11 | 5 | 182 | 245 | 304 | 549 | 123 | 245 | 33 | 7 | 237 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | TB | 0% | 408 | 374 | 75 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 119 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 202 | 263 | 299 | 562 | 98 | 276 | 29 | 6 | 255 | 59 | -20 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +9 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | TB | 34% | 211 | 193 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 60 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 208 | 270 | 316 | 586 | 108 | 277 | 28 | 6 | 265 | 65 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | TB | 46% | 294 | 269 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 82 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 212 | 275 | 327 | 602 | 115 | 279 | 28 | 6 | 271 | 70 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +6 | -0.6 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | TB | 52% | 350 | 319 | 68 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 96 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 214 | 278 | 333 | 611 | 119 | 280 | 27 | 7 | 275 | 72 | -12 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | TB | 34% | 73 | 67 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 209 | 271 | 315 | 586 | 106 | 280 | 29 | 7 | 265 | 65 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | TB | 46% | 136 | 124 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 213 | 276 | 326 | 602 | 113 | 282 | 28 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | TB | 52% | 181 | 164 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 50 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 215 | 279 | 332 | 611 | 117 | 282 | 28 | 7 | 275 | 72 | -6 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 390 | 355 | 76 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 26 | 109 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 214 | 279 | 330 | 609 | 115 | 283 | 28 | 7 | 272 | 57 | -14 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 592 | 127 | 25 | 2 | 13 | 43 | 182 | 10 | 15 | 5 | 215 | 279 | 329 | 608 | 115 | 285 | 28 | 7 | 272 | 57 | -23 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2765 | 2497 | 494 | 104 | 6 | 44 | 178 | 794 | 63 | 105 | 31 | 198 | 268 | 297 | 566 | 99 | 268 | 29 | 6 | 253 | 57 | -39 | +2 | +0 | -6 | +22 | -2.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 115 | 24 | 1 | 10 | 42 | 187 | 15 | 25 | 7 | 196 | 267 | 291 | 558 | 95 | 266 | 29 | 6 | 253 | 57 | -25 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.4 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 154 PAwOBA .341 → .271 (−69)K% 22.7% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.73% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 8.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.30% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.39% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.003 | ×1.015 | 18.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.16% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×1.015 | 6.90% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.003 | ×1.015 | 0.95% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 4.14% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .341 → .271; ISO .188 → .147; BABIP .301 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 122 PAwOBA .256 → .194 (−62)K% 26.2% → 34.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.23% | ÷1.000 | ×1.310 | — | — | 34.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 4.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.870 | ×0.961 | ×1.027 | 15.41% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | ×0.961 | ×1.027 | 5.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.961 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 2.32% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .256 → .194; ISO .109 → .086; BABIP .256 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ACharleston RiverDogs · 388 PAwOBA .323 → .272 (−51)K% 18.3% → 24.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.30% | ÷1.006 | ×1.360 | — | — | 24.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.22% | ÷0.985 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 5.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.80% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 1.45% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.54% | ÷1.013 | ×0.920 | ×0.976 | ×1.030 | 25.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.43% | ÷0.850 | ×0.830 | ×0.976 | ×1.030 | 5.33% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.36% | ÷1.121 | ×0.910 | ×0.976 | ×1.030 | 0.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.159 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.55% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 103, 2B 70, 3B 124, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.
Result: wOBA .323 → .272; ISO .101 → .081; BABIP .333 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 92 PAwOBA .313 → .248 (−65)K% 15.2% → 19.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.22% | ÷1.023 | ×1.310 | — | — | 19.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.61% | ÷0.965 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.042 | 4.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.43% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.042 | 4.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.46% | ÷1.005 | ×0.870 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 15.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.23% | ÷1.066 | ×0.780 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 6.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷0.930 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 1.52% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 86, 1B 101, 2B 113, 3B 99, K 105, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .313 → .248; ISO .114 → .093; BABIP .277 → .225. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ACharleston RiverDogs · 409 PAwOBA .301 → .233 (−68)K% 25.4% → 35.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.43% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 35.09% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.51% | ÷1.047 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 7.24% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.44% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.76% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | ×0.963 | ×1.045 | 17.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.68% | ÷1.017 | ×0.830 | ×0.963 | ×1.045 | 7.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.099 | ×0.910 | ×0.963 | ×1.045 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.42% | ÷0.824 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 2.45% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 65, 1B 114, 2B 103, 3B 120, K 97, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.
Result: wOBA .301 → .233; ISO .119 → .099; BABIP .297 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKFCL Rays · 197 PAwOBA .327 → .241 (−86)K% 18.3% → 26.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.27% | ÷0.999 | ×1.440 | — | — | 26.34% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.11% | ÷0.948 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 4.75% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.08% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 3.74% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.79% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | ×0.974 | ×1.022 | 18.69% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.15% | ÷1.020 | ×0.720 | ×0.974 | ×1.022 | 3.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.974 | ×1.022 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.911 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 2.57% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 104, 3B 130, K 100, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .327 → .241; ISO .134 → .098; BABIP .301 → .237. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ACharleston RiverDogs · 45 PAwOBA .274 → .206 (−67)K% 31.1% → 43.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.11% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 42.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.035 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.050 | 4.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.050 | 1.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.63% | ÷1.071 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.050 | 26.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.41% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.050 | 6.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.938 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.075 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 114, 2B 93, 3B 88, K 97, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .274 → .206; ISO .049 → .037; BABIP .370 → .334. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Tampa Bay · 210 PAwOBA .369 → .235 (−134)K% 17.1% → 21.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.14% | ÷0.976 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.86% | ÷0.985 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 9.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.76% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 3.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.70% | ÷0.981 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 15.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.19% | ÷0.973 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 3.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.919 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.19% | ÷1.273 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 1.96% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 96, 2B 95, 3B 84, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .369 → .235; ISO .164 → .073; BABIP .300 → .192. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .