Echedry Vargas — OGILVIE

Echedry VargasSS Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs A HR -6%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION244 act + 162 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .260 / .354

PA162

HR4

K%30

BB%4

BABIP285

ISO138

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE25

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$18M	+$16M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL TEX Blue	—	223	201	43	13	3	2	8	42	10	13	5	214	279	338	617	124	255	19	4	267	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK	DSL TEX Blue	—	223	196	59	19	5	4	13	27	10	13	5	301	374	510	885	209	325	12	6	382	151	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	222	204	36	8	0	6	14	88	3	17	3	176	240	304	544	127	270	40	6	238	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	222	197	62	15	1	11	21	54	3	17	3	315	389	569	958	254	383	24	9	416	176	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	422	399	93	19	1	12	14	121	6	29	9	233	270	376	646	143	302	29	3	273	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	422	392	108	24	2	14	21	89	6	29	9	276	322	454	776	179	323	21	5	341	119	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	323	302	45	9	1	5	13	114	5	8	2	149	197	235	432	86	216	35	4	190	4	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	323	298	60	11	2	7	17	80	5	8	2	201	256	322	578	121	249	25	5	259	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	MIA	—	244	229	52	12	1	6	11	74	2	3	0	227	269	367	635	140	307	30	5	281	73	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
YTD	21	A	MIA	—	244	224	65	14	2	8	16	52	2	3	0	290	343	478	821	188	345	21	7	359	133	+9	+1	+0	+3	+7	2.0
ROS	21	A	MIA	0%	162	152	33	7	1	4	7	48	2	3	1	216	260	354	614	138	275	30	4	260	57	-8	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
ROS	21	MLB	MIA	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		270	—	—	248	48	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	21	A	MIA	—	244	230	52	12	1	6	11	74	2	3	0	226	269	365	634	139	305	30	5	281	73	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.3
TOT	21	A	MIA	—	406	381	85	19	2	10	18	122	4	6	1	223	265	362	627	139	298	30	4	272	67	-15	+1	+0	+4	+12	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	MIA	34%	417	391	84	17	2	11	19	118	4	7	2	215	258	353	611	138	277	28	5	271	66	-16	+1	+0	+4	+12	0.1
2028	23	MLB	MIA	48%	475	443	97	20	2	13	24	131	5	8	2	219	267	361	628	142	279	28	5	281	73	-14	+1	+0	+5	+13	0.5
2029	24	MLB	MIA	53%	512	475	107	22	2	15	27	138	5	9	2	225	274	375	649	149	281	27	5	287	78	-13	+1	+0	+5	+15	0.8
2030	25	MLB	MIA	55%	530	490	111	22	3	16	29	141	6	9	2	227	278	382	660	155	281	27	5	290	80	-12	+1	+0	+6	+15	1.0
2031	26	MLB	MIA	56%	539	498	113	23	3	16	30	144	6	9	2	227	279	382	661	155	281	27	6	291	81	-11	+1	+0	+6	+15	1.1
2032	27	MLB	MIA	55%	540	498	113	23	3	16	31	144	6	9	2	227	280	382	662	155	281	27	6	292	81	-11	+1	+0	+6	+15	1.1
2033	28	MLB	MIA	55%	536	494	110	22	2	16	31	144	6	9	2	223	277	372	649	150	281	27	6	291	81	-12	+1	-1	+6	+15	1.0
2034	29	MLB	MIA	53%	527	485	109	22	2	16	31	142	6	8	2	225	280	377	657	153	280	27	6	289	79	-12	+1	-1	+6	+15	0.8
2027	22	MLB	MIA	34%	143	133	29	6	1	4	7	41	2	2	1	218	268	368	636	150	273	29	5	259	57	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2028	23	MLB	MIA	48%	230	214	46	9	1	6	12	63	2	4	1	215	263	350	614	136	274	27	5	268	64	-9	+0	+0	+2	+7	-0.0
2029	24	MLB	MIA	53%	270	251	55	11	1	8	14	73	3	5	1	219	269	367	635	147	276	27	5	274	68	-10	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.1
2030	25	MLB	MIA	55%	290	269	59	12	1	8	16	77	3	5	1	219	271	361	631	141	276	27	6	278	71	-10	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.2
2031	26	MLB	MIA	56%	300	277	61	12	1	9	17	80	3	5	1	220	273	368	641	148	276	27	6	279	71	-10	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.3
2032	27	MLB	MIA	55%	297	275	61	12	1	9	17	79	3	5	1	222	275	371	645	149	276	27	6	279	72	-10	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.3
2033	28	MLB	MIA	55%	293	271	60	12	1	9	17	79	3	5	1	221	275	373	648	151	276	27	6	278	71	-10	+1	-0	+3	+8	0.2
2034	29	MLB	MIA	53%	281	260	56	11	1	8	16	76	3	4	1	215	269	358	627	142	275	27	6	276	70	-10	+0	-1	+3	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2104	1951	427	85	8	61	116	568	22	35	8	219	271	364	635	146	275	27	6	275	69	-74	+4	-1	+23	+60	1.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	603	131	26	2	19	36	175	7	11	2	217	270	362	631	144	272	27	6	275	69	-23	+1	-0	+7	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	5428	5032	1094	227	25	148	278	1515	70	138	36	217	268	361	629	143	278	28	5	277	70	-185	+13	-2	+58	+154	3.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	603	131	27	3	18	33	181	8	17	4	217	267	362	629	144	277	28	5	277	70	-22	+2	-0	+7	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	17	ROK	DSL TEX Blue	—	223	196	59	19	5	4	13	27	10	13	5	301	374	510	885	209	325	12	6	382	151	+13	+1	—	—	+6	2.0
2023	18	ROK	ACL Rangers	—	222	197	62	15	1	11	21	54	3	17	3	315	389	569	958	254	383	24	9	416	176	+19	+2	—	—	+6	2.8
2024	19	A	Down East Wood Ducks	—	422	392	108	24	2	14	21	89	6	29	9	276	322	454	776	179	323	21	5	341	119	+9	+2	—	—	+12	2.4
2025	20	A+	Beloit Sky Carp	—	323	298	60	11	2	7	17	80	5	8	2	201	256	322	578	121	249	25	5	259	56	-16	+1	—	—	+9	-0.6

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	2,424	69	42	221	268	368	+26	+15	2.8	3.1
	/162	664	19	12	221	268	368	+7.1	+4.1	0.8	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Echedry Vargas (OGILVIE)	21	30	35	45	25	223/265/362	139	298	10	6	30%	4%	67	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	33	40→45	45→50	36	171/214/256	85	249	7	7	34%	5%	21	-3.7	187/224/281	94	269	6	9	32%	4%	32	-3.0	240/300/311	71	326	5	6	26%	7%	68	-0.2
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→45	44→55	39	187/251/282	95	271	10	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	202/259/294	92	279	6	11	28%	6%	51	-1.7	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2010 · A	21	33	41→45	40→50	41	166/249/256	90	260	9	8	37%	8%	39	-2.5	197/273/307	110	309	10	5	36%	8%	61	-1.0	204/303/338	134	292	14	2	32%	11%	83	+0.2
✕Luis Hidalgo 2017 · A	21	37	44→45	47→45	43	190/252/303	113	229	13	12	24%	6%	51	-1.7	224/274/348	124	267	13	8	21%	5%	72	-0.2	259/302/380	121	288	12	8	14%	4%	89	+0.4
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	40→33	46→55	52→50	39	205/249/339	134	269	14	14	29%	5%	59	-1.1	183/230/341	158	264	20	4	38%	5%	52	-1.6	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Gilberto Galaviz 2013 · AAA	21	42	42→40	46→30	39	210/245/307	97	260	11	9	24%	4%	48	-1.9	237/271/334	97	283	9	5	19%	4%	66	-0.6	270/302/340	70	306	6	2	14%	3%	77	+0.0
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	39	39→40	46→50	36	192/235/276	84	265	7	5	30%	4%	36	-2.7	190/239/268	78	302	5	7	36%	5%	35	-2.8	130/184/163	32	225	0	6	40%	6%	-19	-1.1
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→34	41→45	48→50	40	199/264/295	96	283	9	10	32%	6%	54	-1.4	202/295/301	99	301	9	8	33%	10%	69	-0.4	182/291/276	94	275	9	10	33%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Rafael Mejia 2018 · A	20	35	42→40	47→50	36	182/227/281	99	253	10	6	32%	5%	33	-2.9	211/251/341	130	301	15	8	34%	4%	60	-1.0	206/233/374	168	276	24	10	35%	2%	56	-0.3
✕Jeter Downs 2019 · A	21	41→40	42→50	52→55	42	203/265/309	106	263	10	18	26%	6%	58	-1.2	207/272/357	150	272	17	18	30%	7%	74	-0.1	175/266/324	149	236	18	26	33%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Sean Coyle 2013 · A	21	36→34	45→50	54→50	37	187/249/310	124	268	12	13	34%	6%	52	-1.6	201/258/355	154	293	19	14	37%	6%	68	-0.5	192/251/359	168	278	23	15	39%	7%	64	-0.4
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	39	38→40	47→55	47	190/263/273	82	247	5	9	24%	8%	47	-1.9	212/292/300	88	256	8	17	19%	9%	67	-0.5	209/299/290	80	241	9	25	16%	10%	66	-0.2
✕Jorge Quiterio 2015 · A	20	36	40→45	46→45	39	183/234/269	86	255	8	8	31%	5%	33	-2.9	194/235/279	85	299	6	9	35%	5%	36	-2.7	177/200/259	83	273	6	12	37%	2%	14	-1.1
✕Brayan Buelvas 2023 · A	21	35→40	46→50	50→55	39	186/245/315	128	247	14	13	30%	6%	51	-1.7	189/251/309	120	275	12	18	34%	7%	52	-1.6	182/244/294	112	275	11	14	36%	7%	42	-1.3
✕Tyler Kolodny 2010 · A	22	40→36	43→45	49→50	41	200/271/316	116	273	11	8	30%	6%	63	-0.9	212/286/347	135	281	14	10	29%	6%	78	+0.2	214/295/369	155	271	17	10	26%	6%	84	+0.2
✕Riccio Torrez 2012 · A	22	41→33	42→40	46→45	39	205/249/308	102	258	11	7	25%	4%	50	-1.7	189/245/276	87	241	7	5	24%	4%	41	-2.3	177/235/259	82	226	7	4	24%	4%	29	-1.6
✕Maximo Rivera 2012 · A	19	35	41→45	47→60	41	179/238/272	93	242	10	13	30%	6%	37	-2.7	221/272/301	80	287	7	19	24%	6%	58	-1.2	235/283/299	64	302	5	24	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Luis Santana 2022 · AA	23	39	42→45	47→50	39	198/255/299	101	269	10	10	30%	5%	51	-1.7	211/272/334	123	278	13	9	28%	6%	67	-0.5	201/263/321	120	259	14	7	27%	6%	57	-0.7
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	40	38→40	49→40	40	194/261/274	80	272	6	7	29%	6%	47	-1.9	217/294/301	84	283	8	4	25%	7%	69	-0.4	216/298/285	69	279	7	1	23%	7%	66	-0.3
✕Fabian Pertuz 2023 · A	22	37→33	41→40	49→55	33	185/229/278	92	285	8	9	37%	4%	33	-2.9	172/223/263	91	273	9	12	38%	5%	28	-3.2	143/198/223	80	227	9	13	40%	5%	4	-2.5