Echedry Vargas
SS Jupiter Hammerheads| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ADown East Woo… | 422 | .276/.322/.454 | 14 | 29 | 72 | — | .231/.270/.367 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+MIA | 323 | .201/.256/.322 | 7 | 8 | 25 | — | .166/.213/.258 |
| 2026 | 21 | AMIA | 415 | .323/.377/.611 | 27 | 9 | 107 | — | .260/.304/.482 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBMIA | 525 | .215/.258/.377 | 19 | 9 | 75 | 0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 23 | MLBMIA | 126 | .212/.257/.369 | 4 | 2 | 80 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ46% MLB | 24 | MLBMIA | 190 | .215/.262/.374 | 7 | 4 | 83 | 0.3 |
Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL TEX Blue | — | 223 | 196 | 59 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 27 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 301 | 374 | 510 | 885 | 209 | 325 | 12 | 6 | 382 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | ACL Rangers | — | 222 | 197 | 62 | 15 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 54 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 315 | 389 | 569 | 958 | 254 | 383 | 24 | 9 | 416 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 422 | 392 | 108 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 21 | 89 | 6 | 29 | 9 | 276 | 322 | 454 | 776 | 179 | 323 | 21 | 5 | 341 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 323 | 298 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 80 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 201 | 256 | 322 | 578 | 121 | 249 | 25 | 5 | 259 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 415 | 375 | 121 | 23 | 2 | 27 | 27 | 91 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 323 | 377 | 611 | 988 | 288 | 357 | 22 | 7 | 421 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL TEX Blue | — | 223 | 200 | 37 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 185 | 256 | 300 | 556 | 115 | 205 | 15 | 4 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 222 | 204 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 83 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 201 | 262 | 358 | 620 | 157 | 283 | 37 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 422 | 398 | 92 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 119 | 6 | 29 | 9 | 231 | 270 | 367 | 637 | 136 | 296 | 28 | 4 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 323 | 302 | 50 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 105 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 166 | 212 | 258 | 471 | 93 | 224 | 33 | 4 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 415 | 384 | 100 | 18 | 2 | 21 | 18 | 124 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 260 | 304 | 482 | 786 | 221 | 307 | 30 | 4 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL TEX Blue | — | 223 | 200 | 37 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 185 | 256 | 300 | 556 | 115 | 208 | 15 | 4 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL TEX Blue | — | 223 | 196 | 59 | 19 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 27 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 301 | 374 | 510 | 885 | 209 | 325 | 12 | 6 | 382 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 222 | 204 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 83 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 201 | 262 | 358 | 620 | 157 | 296 | 37 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Rangers | — | 222 | 197 | 62 | 15 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 54 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 315 | 389 | 569 | 958 | 254 | 383 | 24 | 9 | 416 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 422 | 398 | 92 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 119 | 6 | 29 | 9 | 231 | 270 | 367 | 637 | 136 | 300 | 28 | 4 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A RAW | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 422 | 392 | 108 | 24 | 2 | 14 | 21 | 89 | 6 | 29 | 9 | 276 | 322 | 454 | 776 | 179 | 323 | 21 | 5 | 341 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 323 | 302 | 50 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 105 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 166 | 212 | 258 | 471 | 93 | 232 | 33 | 4 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ RAW | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 323 | 298 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 80 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 201 | 256 | 322 | 578 | 121 | 249 | 25 | 5 | 259 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 415 | 384 | 100 | 18 | 2 | 21 | 18 | 124 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 260 | 304 | 482 | 786 | 221 | 322 | 30 | 4 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A RAW | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 415 | 375 | 121 | 23 | 2 | 27 | 27 | 91 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 323 | 377 | 611 | 988 | 288 | 357 | 22 | 7 | 421 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL TEX Blue | — | 223 | 202 | 37 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 10 | 13 | 5 | 183 | 256 | 297 | 553 | 114 | 205 | 15 | 4 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Rangers | — | 222 | 203 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 83 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 202 | 262 | 360 | 622 | 158 | 283 | 37 | 6 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 422 | 398 | 92 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 119 | 6 | 29 | 9 | 231 | 270 | 367 | 637 | 136 | 296 | 28 | 4 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 323 | 302 | 50 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 105 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 166 | 212 | 258 | 471 | 93 | 224 | 33 | 4 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 415 | 388 | 100 | 18 | 2 | 21 | 18 | 124 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 258 | 304 | 477 | 781 | 219 | 307 | 30 | 4 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | A MLE | Down East Wood Ducks | — | 422 | 398 | 92 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 119 | 6 | 29 | 9 | 231 | 270 | 367 | 637 | 136 | 296 | 28 | 4 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Beloit Sky Carp | — | 323 | 302 | 50 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 105 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 166 | 212 | 258 | 471 | 93 | 224 | 33 | 4 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 415 | 388 | 100 | 18 | 2 | 21 | 18 | 124 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 258 | 304 | 477 | 781 | 219 | 307 | 30 | 4 | 327 | 107 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | MIA | 0% | 525 | 492 | 107 | 20 | 2 | 19 | 22 | 144 | 6 | 9 | 2 | 215 | 258 | 377 | 634 | 161 | 262 | 27 | 4 | 279 | 75 | -16 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +11 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | MIA | 34% | 366 | 343 | 75 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 16 | 98 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 220 | 264 | 386 | 650 | 167 | 264 | 27 | 4 | 286 | 80 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | 0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB MLE | MIA | 46% | 411 | 383 | 86 | 16 | 2 | 15 | 20 | 108 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 223 | 269 | 392 | 662 | 170 | 267 | 26 | 5 | 291 | 83 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 0.6 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB MLE | MIA | 52% | 459 | 428 | 96 | 18 | 2 | 17 | 23 | 120 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 224 | 273 | 395 | 668 | 171 | 268 | 26 | 5 | 294 | 85 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.8 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB MLE | MIA | 54% | 476 | 443 | 100 | 18 | 2 | 18 | 25 | 123 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 225 | 275 | 396 | 671 | 170 | 269 | 26 | 5 | 296 | 86 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB MLE | MIA | 54% | 481 | 447 | 101 | 19 | 2 | 18 | 26 | 124 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 225 | 277 | 394 | 671 | 169 | 270 | 26 | 5 | 296 | 86 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.9 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB MLE | MIA | 54% | 479 | 445 | 99 | 18 | 2 | 17 | 26 | 125 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 224 | 275 | 390 | 665 | 166 | 269 | 26 | 5 | 293 | 85 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.7 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB MLE | MIA | 53% | 468 | 435 | 96 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 25 | 123 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 222 | 272 | 384 | 656 | 162 | 268 | 26 | 5 | 290 | 82 | -10 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.5 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB MLE | MIA | 52% | 458 | 426 | 94 | 17 | 2 | 16 | 24 | 122 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 219 | 269 | 377 | 646 | 158 | 266 | 27 | 5 | 285 | 79 | -11 | +0 | -2 | +5 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB MLE | MIA | 56% | 441 | 411 | 87 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 119 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 215 | 264 | 368 | 632 | 153 | 263 | 27 | 5 | 280 | 75 | -13 | +0 | -3 | +5 | +10 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | MIA | 34% | 126 | 118 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 257 | 369 | 625 | 157 | 255 | 27 | 5 | 276 | 80 | -3 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB CTX | MIA | 46% | 190 | 177 | 39 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 215 | 262 | 374 | 637 | 160 | 257 | 26 | 5 | 281 | 83 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.3 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB CTX | MIA | 52% | 237 | 220 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 12 | 62 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 217 | 266 | 377 | 643 | 161 | 259 | 26 | 5 | 284 | 85 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB CTX | MIA | 54% | 258 | 239 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 67 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 217 | 268 | 378 | 646 | 160 | 260 | 26 | 5 | 285 | 86 | -4 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB CTX | MIA | 54% | 261 | 242 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 67 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 218 | 269 | 376 | 646 | 159 | 260 | 26 | 5 | 285 | 86 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB CTX | MIA | 54% | 260 | 241 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 68 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 216 | 268 | 372 | 640 | 156 | 260 | 26 | 5 | 283 | 85 | -5 | +0 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB CTX | MIA | 53% | 248 | 230 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 65 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 214 | 265 | 367 | 632 | 153 | 259 | 26 | 5 | 280 | 82 | -5 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +5 | 0.2 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB CTX | MIA | 52% | 240 | 223 | 47 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 64 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 211 | 262 | 360 | 622 | 149 | 257 | 27 | 5 | 276 | 79 | -6 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB CTX | MIA | 56% | 249 | 232 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 208 | 257 | 351 | 608 | 144 | 255 | 27 | 5 | 270 | 75 | -7 | +0 | -2 | +3 | +5 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2069 | 1922 | 410 | 71 | 8 | 70 | 108 | 544 | 22 | 26 | 8 | 213 | 263 | 368 | 631 | 155 | 258 | 26 | 5 | 280 | 78 | -43 | +2 | -4 | +22 | +45 | 2.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 604 | 129 | 22 | 3 | 22 | 34 | 171 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 214 | 264 | 369 | 633 | 156 | 258 | 26 | 5 | 280 | 78 | -13 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 5854 | 5446 | 1196 | 228 | 27 | 197 | 286 | 1585 | 75 | 135 | 36 | 220 | 268 | 380 | 648 | 160 | 270 | 27 | 5 | 284 | 78 | -90 | +5 | -7 | +46 | +92 | 4.7 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 605 | 133 | 25 | 3 | 22 | 32 | 176 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 220 | 268 | 380 | 648 | 160 | 270 | 27 | 5 | 284 | 78 | -14 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AJupiter Hammerheads · 415 PAwOBA .414 → .327 (−87)K% 21.9% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.93% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 4.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.14% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.30% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.961 | ×1.015 | 21.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.961 | ×1.015 | 6.56% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.961 | ×1.015 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 9.51% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 7.72% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .414 → .327; ISO .288 → .222; BABIP .357 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 323 PAwOBA .254 → .205 (−48)K% 24.8% → 32.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.77% | ÷0.972 | ×1.270 | — | — | 32.36% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.26% | ÷0.978 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.042 | 3.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.55% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.042 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.35% | ÷1.028 | ×0.920 | ×0.984 | ×1.042 | 16.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.05% | ÷0.961 | ×0.810 | ×0.984 | ×1.042 | 4.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.984 | ×1.042 | 0.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.21% | ÷1.006 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 2.66% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 106, 2B 92, 3B 100, K 94, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.
Result: wOBA .254 → .205; ISO .121 → .094; BABIP .249 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ADown East Wood Ducks · 422 PAwOBA .333 → .275 (−58)K% 21.1% → 28.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.09% | ÷1.022 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.08% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.98% | ÷0.983 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.045 | 3.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.42% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.045 | 1.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.44% | ÷0.973 | ×0.920 | ×0.964 | ×1.045 | 21.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.92% | ÷0.978 | ×0.830 | ×0.964 | ×1.045 | 6.77% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.66% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.964 | ×1.045 | 0.53% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.62% | ÷1.008 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.045 | 3.83% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 95, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .333 → .275; ISO .179 → .140; BABIP .323 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Rangers · 222 PAwOBA .406 → .260 (−146)K% 24.3% → 37.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.32% | ÷0.940 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.46% | ÷0.973 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 6.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.48% | ÷1.003 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 19.43% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.49% | ÷1.032 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 7.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.114 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×1.022 | 0.44% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.124 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 5.46% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 101, 2B 106, 3B 123, K 88, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .406 → .260; ISO .254 → .153; BABIP .383 → .283. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL TEX Blue · 223 PAwOBA .379 → .241 (−138)K% 12.1% → 15.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.11% | ÷0.964 | ×1.220 | — | — | 15.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.83% | ÷0.998 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 4.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.48% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 3.21% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.34% | ÷0.982 | ×0.680 | ×0.959 | ×1.022 | 12.46% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.24% | ÷1.007 | ×0.600 | ×0.959 | ×1.022 | 6.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.96% | ÷1.006 | ×0.600 | ×0.959 | ×1.022 | 1.73% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.37% | ÷1.148 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.99% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 130, 1B 96, 2B 101, 3B 101, K 93, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.959.
Result: wOBA .379 → .241; ISO .209 → .114; BABIP .325 → .205. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).