Jagger Beck

P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 20 RHP 6'6" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.8 · 2032

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

Scout OFP40ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKHOU	3	1	10	5.40	4.70	31.8%	13.6%	—	K 31.8% · BB 13.6% · FIP 4.64
2026	19	AHOU	22	15	87	2.80	2.40	28.9%	11.0%	—	K 21.4% · BB 13.0% · FIP 3.35
2027PROJ	20	MLBHOU	15	15	90	4.68	4.68	22.1%	12.8%	0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBHOU	11	11	63	4.48	4.40	22.7%	11.4%	0.3
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBHOU	21	21	125	4.28	4.15	23.7%	10.3%	1.0

Next 3 projected WAR 1.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control45FB velo45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 18, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 78%

CompsMichael Forret (age 20) · Nolan DeVos (age 22) · Logan Hofmann (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.68

FIP4.68

K%22.1%

BB%12.8%

K-BB%9.2%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$98M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF—55

CTRL—45

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.1	$12M	+$11M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.2	$11M	+$11M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.1	$10M	+$9M
2035	Arb-1	$6M	+1.9	$8M	+$6M
2036	Arb-2	$9M	+1.5	$6M	+$3M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$18M		$47M	+$39M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	3	1	10	44	14	6	2	33%	3.3	31.8%	13.6%	18.2%	4.5%	5.40	4.64	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	3	1	10	44	14	6	2	33%	3.3	31.8%	13.6%	18.2%	4.5%	5.40	4.64	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	FCL Astros	3	1	10	44	14	6	2	33%	3.3	31.8%	13.6%	18.2%	4.5%	5.40	4.70	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	15	87	353	102	39	2	68%	3.9	21.4%	13.0%	8.3%	0.7%	2.80	3.35	—
2026	19	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	15	87	353	102	39	2	68%	3.9	21.4%	13.0%	8.3%	0.7%	2.80	3.35	—
2026	19	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	22	15	87	353	102	39	2	68%	3.9	28.9%	11.0%	17.8%	0.6%	2.80	2.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	HOU	15	15	90	380	84	49	10	100%	6.0	22.1%	12.8%	9.2%	2.6%	4.68	4.68	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	HOU	22	22	128	543	123	62	14	100%	5.8	22.7%	11.4%	11.3%	2.6%	4.52	4.44	+0.7
2029	22	MLB MLE	HOU	29	29	171	722	171	74	19	100%	5.9	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	2.6%	4.32	4.19	+1.4
2030	23	MLB MLE	HOU	29	29	175	739	180	70	19	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.5%	14.8%	2.5%	4.15	4.03	+1.8
2031	24	MLB MLE	HOU	30	30	179	757	188	69	19	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.1%	15.8%	2.5%	4.01	3.92	+2.1
2032	25	MLB MLE	HOU	30	30	180	760	192	67	19	100%	6.0	25.2%	8.9%	16.4%	2.5%	3.91	3.85	+2.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	HOU	30	30	180	760	193	67	19	100%	6.0	25.4%	8.8%	16.6%	2.5%	3.86	3.83	+2.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	HOU	30	30	177	749	190	67	19	100%	5.9	25.4%	8.9%	16.5%	2.6%	3.86	3.86	+2.2
2035	28	MLB MLE	HOU	29	29	172	726	184	66	19	100%	5.9	25.3%	9.0%	16.3%	2.7%	3.91	3.95	+2.0
2036	29	MLB MLE	HOU	27	27	164	694	174	64	20	100%	6.1	25.1%	9.3%	15.8%	2.8%	4.01	4.08	+1.6
2037	30	MLB MLE	HOU	26	26	154	652	161	62	20	100%	5.9	24.7%	9.6%	15.2%	3.0%	4.16	4.26	+1.2
2038	31	MLB MLE	HOU	24	24	144	608	148	60	20	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.9%	14.4%	3.2%	4.34	4.46	+0.7
2039	32	MLB MLE	HOU	22	22	133	562	134	58	20	100%	6.1	23.9%	10.3%	13.6%	3.5%	4.55	4.68	+0.3
2040	33	MLB MLE	HOU	20	20	122	516	121	56	19	100%	6.1	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	3.8%	4.78	4.93	-0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	63	266	60	30	7	100%	5.7	22.7%	11.4%	11.3%	2.5%	4.48	4.40	+0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	HOU	21	21	125	528	125	54	13	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.3%	13.4%	2.5%	4.28	4.15	+1.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	HOU	25	25	148	625	152	60	15	100%	5.9	24.3%	9.5%	14.8%	2.5%	4.11	3.99	+1.5
2031	24	MLB CTX	HOU	27	27	160	676	168	61	17	100%	5.9	24.9%	9.1%	15.8%	2.5%	3.97	3.88	+1.9
2032	25	MLB CTX	HOU	28	28	165	697	176	62	17	100%	5.9	25.2%	8.9%	16.4%	2.4%	3.87	3.81	+2.1
2033	26	MLB CTX	HOU	28	28	168	709	181	63	17	100%	6.0	25.4%	8.8%	16.6%	2.4%	3.82	3.79	+2.2
2034	27	MLB CTX	HOU	28	28	168	709	180	63	18	100%	6.0	25.4%	8.9%	16.5%	2.5%	3.82	3.82	+2.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	HOU	27	27	163	688	174	62	18	100%	6.0	25.3%	9.0%	16.3%	2.6%	3.87	3.91	+1.9
2036	29	MLB CTX	HOU	26	26	156	659	165	61	18	100%	6.0	25.1%	9.3%	15.8%	2.7%	3.97	4.04	+1.5
2037	30	MLB CTX	HOU	24	24	147	621	153	59	18	100%	6.1	24.7%	9.6%	15.2%	2.9%	4.11	4.21	+1.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	HOU	23	23	137	578	141	57	18	100%	6.0	24.3%	9.9%	14.4%	3.1%	4.29	4.41	+0.7
2039	32	MLB CTX	HOU	21	21	127	536	128	55	18	100%	6.0	23.9%	10.3%	13.6%	3.4%	4.50	4.63	+0.3
2040	33	MLB CTX	HOU	19	19	116	490	115	53	18	100%	6.1	23.4%	10.8%	12.6%	3.7%	4.72	4.87	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		308	308	1842	7778	1918	741	212	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.5%	15.1%	2.7%	4.09	3.72	+26.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	208	80	23	100%	6.0	24.7%	9.5%	15.1%	2.7%	4.09	3.72	+2.9
Career	—	MLE		25	16	97	397	89	52	5	64%	3.9	22.5%	13.1%	9.4%	1.2%	3.07	3.49	+18.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	33	200	821	185	108	10	64%	3.9	22.5%	13.1%	9.4%	1.2%	3.07	3.49	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jagger Beck (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	22.1%	12.8%	2.6%	—	4.20	23.7%	13.3%	474	-0.48	—	—	—
Michael Forret R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	20	SP-	4.00	21.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.302	3.45	22.8%	12.9%	190	-0.55	2.65	289	94
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	88
Logan Hofmann R 2021 · 4.57 FIP	21	SP-	4.57	22.1%	11.3%	3.5%	.239	6.80	9.7%	-12.0%	47	+2.23	4.57	129	87
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	86
Kyle Bradish R 2019 · 4.56 FIP	22	SP-	4.56	20.8%	13.7%	2.7%	.309	3.84	24.1%	14.7%	238	-0.72	2.20	750	85
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	85
Braden Webb R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP-	4.48	18.0%	12.5%	2.4%	.276	4.78	17.9%	1.8%	172	+0.30	4.48	308	84
Jimmy Endersby R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	23	SP-	4.29	20.9%	14.1%	2.1%	.310	5.71	16.3%	4.2%	225	+1.42	2.86	357	84
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	83
Nick Sinacola R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP-	4.44	19.3%	10.4%	3.0%	.335	4.05	18.2%	10.0%	254	-0.39	3.56	357	83
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.2%	6.4%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	83
Carlos Zambrano R 2002 · 4.11 FIP	21	SP-	4.11	19.5%	12.8%	1.9%	.271	3.39	20.7%	11.7%	647	-0.72	3.23	1,951	83
Jackson Nezuh R 2024 · 3.89 FIP	22	SP-	3.89	22.5%	11.2%	2.3%	.290	4.40	21.3%	10.9%	176	+0.51	3.89	296	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	82
Carlos Rodriguez R 2022 · 3.60 FIP	20	SP-	3.60	22.6%	10.9%	1.9%	.266	4.12	21.5%	10.9%	353	+0.52	3.60	513	82
Ian Bedell R 2023 · 3.73 FIP	23	SP-	3.73	21.0%	10.1%	2.1%	.285	5.56	18.8%	9.0%	178	+1.83	3.73	274	82
Austin Hansen R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP-	3.81	25.1%	15.0%	1.7%	.230	7.74	19.8%	-0.3%	26	+3.93	3.81	204	82
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	82
Brandon Bailey R 2017 · 3.54 FIP	22	SP-	3.54	24.6%	9.9%	2.3%	.290	4.44	21.2%	9.6%	215	+0.90	3.54	306	82
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.9	155	24.5%	9.7%	1.08	4.17
Al Downing ('61-'77, 26 WAR*)	11.3	151	22.4%*	9.6%*	0.97*	4.03*
Scott Kazmir ('21)	8.5	155	22.1%	9.4%	1.02	4.02
Bump Hadley ('26-'41, 32 WAR*)	14.7	196	23.8%*	10.3%*	1.03*	4.05*
Jim Bibby ('72-'84, 16 WAR*)	8.6	157	21.9%*	9.8%*	1.05*	4.32*
Lance Lynn ('24)	10.0	154	23.7%	8.3%	1.04	3.74
Charlie Morton ('25)	11.3	133	22.5%	8.8%	0.90	4.13