Jesus Montiel

P FCL Phillies

Age 20 RHP 6'4" / 195 lbs ROK peak 0.5 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Phillies …	11	11	39	6.23	2.82	26.1%	8.0%	—	K 17.8% · BB 9.9% · FIP 4.40
2026	19	ROKPHI	2	0	4	4.50	2.60	25.0%	12.5%	—	K 25.0% · BB 12.5% · FIP 2.57
2027PROJ	20	MLBPHI	5	5	23	4.50	4.50	21.9%	9.7%	0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBPHI	4	4	18	4.41	4.36	22.5%	9.2%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsGabe Bierman (age 21) · Chad Donato (age 22) · Joelvis Del Rosario (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 102

ERA4.50

FIP4.50

K%21.9%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%12.2%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	1	0	1	6	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	0.0%	0.00	5.21	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	1	0	1	6	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	0.0%	0.00	5.21	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	1	0	1	6	0	1	0	0%	1.0	0.0%	16.7%	-16.7%	0.0%	0.00	6.10	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	11	11	39	176	46	14	3	100%	3.5	17.8%	9.9%	7.8%	2.8%	6.23	4.40	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies Red	11	11	39	176	46	14	3	100%	3.5	17.8%	9.9%	7.8%	2.8%	6.23	4.40	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies Red	11	11	39	176	46	14	3	100%	3.5	26.1%	8.0%	18.2%	1.7%	6.23	2.82	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	2	0	4	16	4	2	0	0%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.57	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	2	0	4	16	4	2	0	0%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.57	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Phillies	2	0	4	16	4	2	0	0%	2.0	25.0%	12.5%	12.5%	0.0%	4.50	2.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	PHI	5	5	23	97	21	9	3	100%	4.6	21.9%	9.7%	12.2%	3.0%	4.50	4.50	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	PHI	8	8	37	156	35	14	5	100%	4.6	22.5%	9.2%	13.2%	2.9%	4.41	4.36	+0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	PHI	4	4	18	76	17	7	2	100%	4.5	22.5%	9.2%	13.2%	2.9%	4.41	4.36	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	77	17	7	2	100%	4.5	22.5%	9.2%	13.2%	2.9%	4.41	3.98	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	187	77	22	100%	4.8	22.5%	9.2%	13.2%	2.9%	4.41	3.98	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		14	11	44	198	35	20	5	79%	3.1	17.8%	10.4%	7.5%	2.5%	5.93	4.28	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	50	200	900	160	93	22	79%	3.1	17.8%	10.4%	7.5%	2.5%	5.93	4.28	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Montiel (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.50	21.9%	9.7%	3.0%	—	4.36	22.5%	13.2%	37	-0.14	—	—	—
Gabe Bierman R 2021 · 4.80 FIP	21	SP-	4.80	21.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.277	4.51	16.2%	4.0%	187	-0.29	4.03	328	85
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	83
Joelvis Del Rosario R 2021 · 3.76 FIP	20	SP-	3.76	22.5%	8.0%	2.8%	.315	4.97	14.6%	6.0%	197	+1.21	3.13	286	82
Miguel Díaz R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	20	SP-	3.40	19.3%	7.7%	1.7%	.365	4.40	19.4%	8.2%	233	+1.00	2.11	573	82
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	81
Moises Castillo R 2024 · 4.58 FIP	19	SP-	4.58	18.1%	11.7%	2.8%	.269	4.06	19.4%	4.9%	67	-0.52	3.76	104	81
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.39	24.3%	10.6%	249	-0.81	2.95	349	81
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.9%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	80
Connor Cooke R 2022 · 3.35 FIP	22	SP-	3.35	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.10	24.4%	11.8%	56	+0.75	2.93	103	80
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	79
Caleb Sampen R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	22	SP	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	79
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	79
Ryan Fernandez R 2018 · 4.44 FIP	20	SP-	4.44	19.2%	6.8%	3.8%	.357	3.37	20.8%	13.2%	53	-1.07	3.02	363	79
Fraynel Nova R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP-	3.83	16.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.296	4.17	14.9%	4.9%	110	+0.34	3.38	129	79
Ulices Campos R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	20	SP-	4.58	17.9%	11.5%	2.8%	.253	5.32	12.0%	1.0%	65	+0.74	4.11	153	79
Donal Montas R 2022 · 5.29 FIP	20	SP-	5.29	17.3%	9.1%	4.5%	.217	5.03	10.2%	-3.8%	91	-0.26	4.10	156	78
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	78
Clarke Schmidt R 2018 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	23.1%	8.5%	2.4%	.324	3.26	21.3%	13.1%	108	-0.27	2.77	537	78
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	78
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.15	22.0%	9.5%	123	+0.85	4.30	181	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	22.3%	9.4%	1.15	4.44
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*