Chia-Shi Shen — OGILVIE

Chia-Shi Shen P Modesto Nuts

Age 22 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.1 · 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.69

FIP4.69

K%16.5%

BB%6.9%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF3050

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†4050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	69	295	68	14	6	75%	4.3	16.4%	5.7%	10.7%	3.5%	4.67	4.35	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	69	295	68	14	6	75%	4.3	16.4%	5.7%	10.7%	3.5%	4.67	4.35	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	12	69	295	68	14	6	75%	4.3	23.1%	4.7%	18.3%	2.0%	4.67	2.87	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	22	MLB	SEA	1	1	4	17	3	1	1	100%	4.0	16.5%	6.9%	9.7%	3.2%	4.69	4.69	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	65	273	50	19	8	100%	5.9	18.5%	6.8%	11.7%	3.1%	4.55	4.48	+0.3
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	66	280	55	19	9	100%	6.0	19.6%	6.8%	12.9%	3.1%	4.43	4.36	+0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	67	283	57	19	9	100%	6.1	20.2%	6.8%	13.5%	3.0%	4.35	4.29	+0.5
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	67	283	58	19	9	100%	6.1	20.5%	6.8%	13.8%	3.0%	4.30	4.27	+0.5
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	66	279	57	19	9	100%	6.0	20.5%	6.8%	13.7%	3.1%	4.31	4.31	+0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	64	271	55	19	9	100%	5.8	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	3.2%	4.36	4.39	+0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	SEA	6	6	32	135	25	9	4	100%	5.3	18.5%	6.8%	11.7%	3.0%	4.51	4.44	+0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	8	8	46	194	38	13	6	100%	5.8	19.6%	6.8%	12.9%	3.0%	4.39	4.32	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	9	9	54	228	46	15	7	100%	6.0	20.2%	6.8%	13.5%	3.0%	4.31	4.25	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	59	249	51	17	7	100%	5.9	20.5%	6.8%	13.8%	3.0%	4.26	4.23	+0.4
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	60	253	52	17	8	100%	6.0	20.5%	6.8%	13.7%	3.0%	4.27	4.27	+0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	SEA	10	10	59	249	51	17	8	100%	5.9	20.4%	7.0%	13.4%	3.1%	4.32	4.35	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		52	52	310	1308	263	89	39	100%	6.0	20.1%	6.8%	13.3%	3.0%	4.32	3.92	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	170	57	25	100%	5.9	20.1%	6.8%	13.3%	3.0%	4.32	3.92	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		16	12	69	295	48	17	10	75%	4.3	16.4%	5.7%	10.7%	3.5%	4.67	4.35	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	35	200	851	139	48	30	75%	4.3	16.4%	5.7%	10.7%	3.5%	4.67	4.35	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chia-Shi Shen (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.69	16.5%	6.9%	3.2%	—	4.38	19.5%	12.7%	198	-0.31	—	—	—
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	89
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	304	87
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	87
Matt Eckelman R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP	4.30	15.6%	4.7%	3.5%	.265	4.44	16.3%	5.4%	169	+0.14	4.07	386	86
Tommy Parsons R 2018 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	12.6%	5.4%	4.2%	.302	5.28	18.0%	12.5%	234	+0.24	4.82	501	86
Jesus Lugo R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP-	3.79	17.8%	8.1%	2.1%	.243	6.08	19.8%	10.5%	45	+2.29	3.79	113	85
Adam Oller R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	21	SP-	4.86	13.3%	4.8%	4.2%	.322	4.53	17.4%	9.0%	160	-0.33	3.47	670	85
Jack Perkins R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	21	SP-	4.34	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.91	16.4%	7.5%	156	+0.57	4.34	176	85
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	84
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	84
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	84
Ubert Mejias R 2023 · 3.74 FIP	22	SP-	3.74	14.2%	7.9%	1.5%	.326	4.43	14.0%	8.0%	264	+0.69	3.74	326	83
Kevin Folman R 2018 · 4.54 FIP	23	SP	4.54	13.2%	5.9%	3.3%	.312	5.37	16.0%	6.4%	122	+0.83	4.54	161	83
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.43	20.4%	11.2%	217	-0.40	3.07	280	83
Zach Lewis R 2017 · 3.57 FIP	22	SP-	3.57	14.3%	7.6%	1.3%	.286	4.17	16.3%	5.2%	213	+0.60	3.57	266	83
Daris Vargas R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	22	SP-	3.51	13.5%	6.5%	1.3%	.268	4.22	14.2%	2.7%	154	+0.71	3.51	205	83
Chris Clarke R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SP	4.59	15.8%	6.7%	3.6%	.340	3.85	16.2%	9.8%	241	-0.74	3.57	291	82
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	82
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	82
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	64	19.6%	6.8%	1.20	4.42
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45