Chia-Shi Shen
P
Modesto Nuts
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.7 · 2028
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA4.97
FIP4.97
K%16.5%
BB%8.1%
K-BB%8.4%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 12 | 69 | 295 | 68 | 14 | 6 | 75% | 4.3 | 16.4% | 5.7% | 10.7% | 5.1% | 4.67 | 5.24 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 16 | 12 | 69 | 295 | 68 | 14 | 6 | 75% | 4.3 | 23.1% | 4.7% | 18.3% | 2.0% | 4.67 | 2.87 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | SEA | 9 | 9 | 52 | 222 | 37 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.5% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.97 | 4.97 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | SEA | 9 | 9 | 54 | 230 | 43 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 56 | 236 | 46 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 10 | 10 | 57 | 239 | 48 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.2% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 4.57 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 9 | 9 | 57 | 239 | 49 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 6.3 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 3.2% | 4.52 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 9 | 9 | 56 | 236 | 48 | 18 | 8 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 4.53 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | SEA | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 4.76 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 7 | 7 | 39 | 165 | 32 | 13 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 19.6% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 46 | 194 | 39 | 15 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.2% | 7.7% | 12.5% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 49 | 207 | 42 | 16 | 6 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.5% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 3.1% | 4.48 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 8 | 8 | 50 | 211 | 43 | 16 | 7 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 3.2% | 4.49 | 4.49 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 36 | 36 | 212 | 893 | 179 | 69 | 28 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.13 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 169 | 65 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 3.2% | 4.55 | 4.13 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 16 | 12 | 69 | 295 | 48 | 17 | 15 | 75% | 4.3 | 16.4% | 5.7% | 10.7% | 5.1% | 4.67 | 5.24 | -0.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 35 | 200 | 851 | 139 | 48 | 43 | 75% | 4.3 | 16.4% | 5.7% | 10.7% | 5.1% | 4.67 | 5.24 | +0.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chia-Shi Shen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.97 | 16.5% | 8.1% | 3.4% | — | 4.62 | 19.5% | 11.7% | 167 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Jones R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.80 | 14.8% | 6.9% | 2.0% | .317 | 4.83 | 13.4% | 5.6% | 68 | +1.03 | 3.80 | 108 | 87 |
| TJ Nichols R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.96 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 2.1% | .310 | 5.17 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 174 | +1.21 | 3.96 | 245 | 86 |
| Michael Ross R 2027 · 5.05 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.05 | 16.3% | 9.9% | 3.8% | .275 | 5.83 | 12.5% | 3.6% | 64 | +0.78 | 5.05 | 146 | 86 |
| Lucas Long R 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.11 | 14.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | .300 | 3.83 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 386 | -1.28 | 3.42 | 441 | 86 |
| Jarrod Cande R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.43 | 19.1% | 7.3% | 3.7% | .330 | 5.02 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 212 | +0.59 | 4.37 | 292 | 86 |
| Nick Payero R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | .285 | 5.72 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 107 | +1.66 | 4.06 | 178 | 86 |
| Nick Fraze R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 86 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.72 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .290 | 5.32 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.60 | 3.31 | 191 | 85 |
| Drew McDaniel R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.03 | 14.1% | 9.1% | 3.6% | .323 | 5.65 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 122 | +0.62 | 4.72 | 200 | 85 |
| Tommy Parsons R 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.04 | 12.6% | 5.4% | 4.2% | .302 | 5.20 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 234 | +0.16 | 4.61 | 501 | 85 |
| Jesus Lugo R 2025 · 3.79 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.79 | 17.8% | 8.1% | 2.1% | .243 | 7.11 | 19.8% | 10.5% | 45 | +3.32 | 3.79 | 113 | 85 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2028 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 85 |
| Nick Dean R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.00 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .275 | 3.50 | 21.7% | 14.6% | 111 | -0.50 | 2.73 | 202 | 85 |
| Johnathan Harmon R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.22 | 17.8% | 10.2% | 2.4% | .293 | 5.23 | 15.4% | 6.7% | 157 | +1.01 | 3.46 | 246 | 84 |
| Ricky Castro R 2028 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 83 |
| Bryce Cunningham R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.06 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .268 | 5.93 | 17.4% | 2.1% | 47 | +1.87 | 4.06 | 101 | 83 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2027 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 83 |
| Adam Oller R 2025 · 4.86 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.86 | 13.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | .322 | 4.41 | 17.4% | 9.0% | 160 | -0.45 | 3.41 | 670 | 83 |
| Nick Belzer R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.23 | 14.5% | 9.1% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.55 | 12.8% | 4.2% | 63 | +0.32 | 4.23 | 112 | 83 |
| Jack Perkins R 2025 · 4.44 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.44 | 13.6% | 5.4% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.73 | 16.4% | 7.5% | 156 | +0.29 | 4.29 | 176 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 55 | 19.4% | 7.8% | 1.27 | 4.67 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Austin Voth ('24) | 6 | 58 | 22.2% | 8.2% | 1.50 | 4.63 |
| Adam Morgan ('21) | 6 | 59 | 20.5% | 7.1% | 1.56 | 4.77 |