Chia-Shi Shen
P
Modesto Nuts
+0.3
WAR
Age 22
RHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.8 · 2029
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.4%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%13.0%
IP69
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.8peak
2029
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | 16 | 12 | 69 | 295 | 68 | 14 | 6 | 16.4% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.67 | 4.46 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 69 | 293 | 63 | 24 | 9 | 21.4% | 8.4% | 3.2% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 72 | 304 | 68 | 25 | 9 | 22.3% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.39 | 4.34 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 74 | 311 | 71 | 25 | 10 | 23.0% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 4.24 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 74 | 25 | 10 | 23.4% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.24 | 4.19 | +0.8 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | SEA | 14 | 14 | 75 | 315 | 74 | 25 | 10 | 23.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.17 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 74 | 25 | 10 | 23.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.19 | 4.18 | +0.7 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 73 | 308 | 72 | 25 | 10 | 23.5% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.21 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 70 | 24 | 9 | 23.4% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 4.25 | +0.6 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | SEA | 13 | 13 | 69 | 292 | 68 | 24 | 9 | 23.2% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 4.28 | 4.31 | +0.6 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 67 | 282 | 65 | 23 | 9 | 23.0% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.35 | 4.39 | +0.5 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | SEA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 61 | 23 | 9 | 22.7% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.43 | 4.48 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | SEA | 11 | 11 | 61 | 258 | 58 | 22 | 9 | 22.4% | 8.6% | 3.4% | 4.52 | 4.57 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | SEA | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 54 | 22 | 9 | 22.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% | 4.62 | 4.68 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | SEA | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 50 | 21 | 8 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 4.73 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 16 | 12 | 69 | 295 | 48 | 17 | 11 | 16.4% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.67 | 4.46 | +0.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 35 | 200 | 851 | 138 | 49 | 32 | 16.4% | 5.7% | 3.7% | 4.67 | 4.46 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Chia-Shi Shen (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 21.4% | 8.4% | 3.2% | — | 4.26 | 22.9% | 14.9% | 220 | -0.22 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Burns R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.38 | 22.2% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .292 | 5.40 | 19.5% | 6.0% | 244 | +1.02 | 4.38 | 355 | 94 |
| Pat Gallagher R 2027 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 21.9% | 8.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.50 | 18.7% | 9.0% | 167 | -0.40 | 3.06 | 230 | 93 |
| RJ Petit R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.50 | 20.3% | 8.4% | 3.7% | .270 | 3.45 | 22.5% | 12.8% | 177 | -1.05 | 3.09 | 231 | 93 |
| Jared Karros R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.78 | 19.0% | 8.9% | 3.9% | .290 | 5.27 | 17.8% | 8.3% | 120 | +0.49 | 3.36 | 191 | 92 |
| David Garner R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.81 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .282 | 4.52 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.81 | 154 | 92 |
| Billy Corcoran R 2027 · 4.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.24 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.8% | .308 | 4.43 | 16.0% | 9.0% | 156 | +0.19 | 4.24 | 225 | 92 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.03 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.1% | .329 | 3.52 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.51 | 2.48 | 281 | 91 |
| Matt Frawley R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.39 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 139 | 91 |
| Kyle Zimmer R 2027 · 3.71 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.71 | 21.8% | 8.6% | 2.5% | .293 | 4.53 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 33 | +0.82 | 2.08 | 276 | 91 |
| Brendan Collins R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.69 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.16 | 3.69 | 122 | 91 |
| Austin Ross R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 90 |
| Curtis Taylor R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.97 | 19.3% | 9.9% | 2.2% | .305 | 3.40 | 23.5% | 13.7% | 96 | -0.57 | 2.58 | 408 | 90 |
| Ricky Castro R 2028 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 90 |
| Ben Anderson R 2027 · 4.87 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.87 | 19.8% | 9.4% | 4.1% | .309 | 4.00 | 16.2% | 7.7% | 147 | -0.87 | 3.79 | 314 | 90 |
| Johnny Barbato R 2027 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.59 | 21.3% | 9.4% | 2.0% | .284 | 4.24 | 21.6% | 11.4% | 167 | +0.65 | 2.57 | 304 | 90 |
| Aaron Holiday R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.81 | 21.9% | 11.3% | 3.9% | .310 | 5.20 | 19.7% | -3.3% | 59 | +0.39 | 4.72 | 116 | 90 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.57 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.38 | 3.57 | 281 | 89 |
| John Russell R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.98 | 22.5% | 8.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 4.78 | 24.0% | 11.2% | 60 | +0.80 | 3.92 | 158 | 89 |
| Michael Knorr R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.23 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 3.1% | .312 | 5.10 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +0.87 | 4.23 | 152 | 89 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2027 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 278 | 89 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.5 | $3M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $8M | $19M | +$11M | ||