Chia-Shi Shen

P Modesto Nuts

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 185 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.8 · 2028

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1030ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	MIX2 levels	16	12	69	4.67	2.87	23.1%	4.7%	—	K 16.4% · BB 5.7% · FIP 4.35
2026	22	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	23	MLBSEA	—	—	0	4.61	4.61	17.6%	7.3%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBSEA	5	5	26	4.47	4.42	19.1%	7.3%	0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBSEA	6	6	35	4.39	4.34	19.9%	7.3%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

CompsNick Payero (age 24) · Nick Fraze (age 23) · Ricky Castro (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.61

FIP4.61

K%17.6%

BB%7.3%

K-BB%10.3%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$14M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	69	295	68	14	6	75%	4.3	16.4%	5.7%	10.7%	3.5%	4.67	4.35	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	12	69	295	68	14	6	75%	4.3	16.4%	5.7%	10.7%	3.5%	4.67	4.35	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	12	69	295	68	14	6	75%	4.3	23.1%	4.7%	18.3%	2.0%	4.67	2.87	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	17.6%	7.3%	10.3%	3.1%	4.61	4.61	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	SEA	11	11	62	260	50	19	8	100%	5.6	19.1%	7.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.51	4.46	+0.7
2029	25	MLB MLE	SEA	9	9	52	221	44	16	7	100%	5.8	19.9%	7.3%	12.6%	3.0%	4.43	4.38	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	SEA	9	9	52	219	44	16	7	100%	5.8	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	3.0%	4.38	4.36	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	SEA	8	8	50	213	43	16	7	100%	6.3	20.4%	7.5%	12.9%	3.1%	4.39	4.39	+0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	SEA	5	5	26	110	21	8	3	100%	5.2	19.1%	7.3%	11.8%	3.0%	4.47	4.42	+0.3
2029	25	MLB CTX	SEA	6	6	35	148	29	11	4	100%	5.8	19.9%	7.3%	12.6%	2.9%	4.39	4.34	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	SEA	7	7	41	173	35	13	5	100%	5.9	20.3%	7.3%	13.0%	2.9%	4.34	4.32	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	SEA	7	7	43	182	37	14	5	100%	6.1	20.4%	7.5%	12.9%	3.0%	4.35	4.35	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		25	25	145	613	123	45	18	100%	5.8	20.0%	7.3%	12.6%	3.0%	4.38	3.97	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	169	62	25	100%	5.9	20.0%	7.3%	12.6%	3.0%	4.38	3.97	+3.4
Career	—	MLE		16	12	69	295	48	17	10	75%	4.3	16.4%	5.7%	10.7%	3.5%	4.67	4.35	+2.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	35	200	851	139	48	30	75%	4.3	16.4%	5.7%	10.7%	3.5%	4.67	4.35	+2.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AModesto Nuts · 41 IPFIP 4.00 → 5.77 (+1.77)K% 18.1% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	18.09%	—	×0.740	13.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.32%	—	×1.180	6.28%
HR / BF /BF	3.19%	÷0.759	×1.300	5.47%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 52).

Result: FIP 4.00 → 5.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKACL Mariners · 28 IPFIP 0.89 → 1.87 (+0.98)K% 31.8% → 21.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.78%	—	×0.680	21.61%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.74%	—	×1.250	4.67%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.886	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 0.89 → 1.87, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Chia-Shi Shen (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.1%	—	4.40	19.7%	12.4%	166	-0.21	—	—	—
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	92
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.69	18.1%	10.4%	162	+0.20	3.86	278	89
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	89
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	88
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	88
Pat Gallagher R 2023 · 3.83 FIP	23	SP-	3.83	21.9%	8.3%	2.8%	.284	3.42	20.6%	11.4%	217	-0.41	3.07	280	87
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	87
Sergio Mitre R 2004 · 4.16 FIP	23	SP-	4.16	15.2%	7.8%	2.5%	.357	4.16	13.2%	6.5%	250	+0.00	3.55	602	86
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	85
Matthew DeRosier R 2017 · 3.89 FIP	23	SP-	3.89	16.6%	6.6%	2.5%	.294	5.67	15.1%	6.0%	57	+1.78	2.72	200	85
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	85
Wil Jensen R 2021 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP	4.37	18.9%	6.9%	3.6%	.300	4.37	21.0%	11.3%	266	+0.00	3.48	368	85
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	85
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	85
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	84
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	84
Kenten Egbert R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP-	4.26	19.6%	9.6%	2.9%	.257	4.34	10.8%	3.5%	133	+0.08	4.04	231	84
Seth Shuman R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	18.9%	7.6%	4.4%	.297	4.48	15.4%	8.4%	109	-0.38	3.16	357	83
Kevin Gowdy R 2021 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	17.7%	7.4%	3.3%	.337	5.06	16.6%	3.9%	130	+0.70	3.11	333	83
Cale Lansville R 2024 · 3.90 FIP	21	SP-	3.90	15.1%	7.7%	2.0%	.325	5.07	12.8%	0.1%	38	+1.17	3.90	113	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	56	19.4%	7.3%	1.18	4.47
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*