Justin Mitrovich

P Fort Myers Mighty Mussels

Age 23 RHP A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.6 · 2029

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1038ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	MIX2 levels	19	18	74	3.42	2.53	26.3%	11.7%	—	K 19.7% · BB 13.6% · FIP 3.38
2027PROJ	23	MLBMIN	—	—	0	4.83	4.83	20.2%	13.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBMIN	4	4	24	4.67	4.59	21.1%	11.7%	0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBMIN	6	6	35	4.53	4.45	21.7%	10.8%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$3M+2

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 2.4, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 89%

CompsTJ Shook (age 23) · James Proctor (age 23) · Mike Ruff (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.83

FIP4.83

K%20.2%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%7.1%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	74	316	83	37	1	95%	3.9	19.7%	13.6%	6.1%	0.4%	3.42	3.38	—
2026	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	74	316	83	37	1	95%	3.9	19.7%	13.6%	6.1%	0.4%	3.42	3.38	—
2026	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	74	316	83	37	1	95%	3.9	26.3%	11.7%	14.6%	0.3%	3.42	2.53	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	13.1%	7.1%	2.5%	4.83	4.83	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	MIN	10	10	56	236	50	28	6	100%	5.6	21.1%	11.7%	9.4%	2.6%	4.66	4.58	+0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	52	220	48	24	6	100%	5.8	21.7%	10.8%	10.8%	2.6%	4.52	4.44	+0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	MIN	9	9	51	217	48	23	6	100%	5.7	22.0%	10.7%	11.2%	2.6%	4.45	4.41	+0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	50	210	46	23	6	100%	6.2	22.0%	10.8%	11.2%	2.7%	4.45	4.45	+0.6
2032	28	MLB MLE	MIN	8	8	47	199	44	22	6	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.9%	11.0%	2.8%	4.50	4.53	+0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	MIN	7	7	44	184	40	21	5	100%	6.2	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	2.9%	4.60	4.66	+0.4
2028	24	MLB CTX	MIN	4	4	24	101	21	12	3	100%	6.0	21.1%	11.7%	9.4%	2.6%	4.67	4.59	+0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	MIN	6	6	35	148	32	16	4	100%	5.8	21.7%	10.8%	10.8%	2.6%	4.53	4.45	+0.4
2030	26	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	41	173	38	19	5	100%	5.9	22.0%	10.7%	11.2%	2.6%	4.46	4.42	+0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	42	177	39	19	5	100%	6.0	22.0%	10.8%	11.2%	2.7%	4.46	4.46	+0.5
2032	28	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	42	177	39	19	5	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.9%	11.0%	2.8%	4.51	4.54	+0.4
2033	29	MLB CTX	MIN	7	7	40	169	37	19	5	100%	5.7	21.6%	11.1%	10.5%	2.9%	4.61	4.67	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		38	38	223	942	205	103	25	100%	5.9	21.8%	11.0%	10.8%	2.7%	4.53	4.13	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	184	92	22	100%	5.9	21.8%	11.0%	10.8%	2.7%	4.53	4.13	+3.0
Career	—	MLE		19	18	74	316	62	43	1	95%	3.9	19.7%	13.6%	6.1%	0.4%	3.42	3.38	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	49	200	858	169	117	3	95%	3.9	19.7%	13.6%	6.1%	0.4%	3.42	3.38	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 43 IPFIP 1.85 → 2.75 (+0.89)K% 30.1% → 22.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.11%	—	×0.740	22.28%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.23%	—	×1.180	12.07%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.85 → 2.75, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 31 IPFIP 3.40 → 4.17 (+0.77)K% 21.4% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.43%	—	×0.770	16.50%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.57%	—	×1.150	15.61%
HR / BF /BF	0.71%	÷1.000	×1.250	0.89%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.40 → 4.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Justin Mitrovich (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.83	20.2%	13.1%	2.5%	—	4.48	21.6%	10.5%	160	-0.35	—	—	—
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	452	88
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	86
Mike Ruff R 2021 · 4.00 FIP	23	SP	4.00	18.5%	12.4%	1.6%	.301	5.73	16.0%	5.0%	185	+1.73	4.00	260	86
Chad Patrick R 2022 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP	3.86	20.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.315	4.19	22.1%	14.2%	422	+0.33	3.69	570	85
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	85
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	85
Tyler Skulina R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	23	SP	4.28	18.3%	11.6%	2.3%	.242	5.34	13.0%	-1.0%	147	+1.06	4.28	222	84
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	84
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	83
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.10	25.7%	15.7%	121	-0.41	3.26	181	83
Reid Schaller R 2019 · 5.18 FIP	22	SP	5.18	16.3%	13.8%	3.1%	.241	4.40	19.9%	7.9%	87	-0.78	3.61	186	83
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	83
J.P. Massey R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	23	SP	4.95	18.2%	16.0%	2.5%	.259	5.12	15.9%	0.6%	115	+0.17	4.72	195	83
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	83
Chris Kachmar R 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	16.1%	11.4%	2.0%	.309	4.61	18.4%	9.4%	172	+0.32	4.29	360	83
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	83
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.53	19.8%	6.6%	278	+1.79	3.74	362	83
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	82
Jeremy Lee R 2024 · 4.17 FIP	22	SP-	4.17	16.8%	11.5%	1.9%	.318	5.21	11.2%	-0.5%	46	+1.04	4.17	125	82
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	50	21.5%	11.3%	1.03	4.57
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Bob Allen ('61-'67, -1 WAR*)	1.4	55	21.4%*	10.4%*	0.89*	4.79*