Jesus A. Castro
P
Lake Elsinore Storm
+0.2
WAR
Age 19
RHP
5'11" / 155 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.7 · 2032
ERA4.28
FIP4.28
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.9%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%13.9%
IP37
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2032
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 11 | 8 | 43 | 170 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 18.4% | 7.4% | 0.9% | 2.91 | 2.97 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 2 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 5 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.70 | — | — |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | SD | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2026 Total | 19 | MLB | SD | — | — | 44 | 188 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 2.4% | 4.35 | 3.54 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | SD | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 23.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.22 | 4.18 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 21 | MLB | SD | 40 | — | 40 | 171 | 41 | 15 | 5 | 23.7% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.15 | 4.09 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 22 | MLB | SD | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 44 | 15 | 5 | 24.6% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.03 | 3.94 | +0.5 |
| 2030 | 23 | MLB | SD | 44 | — | 44 | 186 | 47 | 15 | 5 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 2.7% | 3.91 | 3.83 | +0.6 |
| 2031 | 24 | MLB | SD | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 49 | 15 | 5 | 25.9% | 7.6% | 2.7% | 3.81 | 3.74 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 25 | MLB | SD | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 51 | 15 | 5 | 26.2% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 3.73 | 3.68 | +0.7 |
| 2033 | 26 | MLB | SD | 46 | — | 46 | 193 | 51 | 14 | 5 | 26.4% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 3.69 | 3.66 | +0.7 |
| 2034 | 27 | MLB | SD | 46 | — | 46 | 192 | 51 | 14 | 5 | 26.5% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 3.68 | 3.67 | +0.7 |
| 2035 | 28 | MLB | SD | 45 | — | 45 | 189 | 50 | 14 | 5 | 26.4% | 7.5% | 2.7% | 3.69 | 3.70 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 29 | MLB | SD | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 49 | 14 | 5 | 26.3% | 7.6% | 2.8% | 3.72 | 3.74 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 30 | MLB | SD | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 47 | 14 | 5 | 26.1% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 3.77 | 3.80 | +0.6 |
| 2038 | 31 | MLB | SD | 41 | — | 41 | 173 | 45 | 14 | 5 | 25.8% | 7.8% | 2.9% | 3.83 | 3.88 | +0.5 |
| 2039 | 32 | MLB | SD | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 43 | 13 | 5 | 25.6% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 3.91 | 3.96 | +0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 10 | 51 | 203 | 36 | 16 | 2 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 0.8% | 3.18 | 2.97 | +1.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 51 | 39 | 200 | 796 | 141 | 63 | 8 | 17.9% | 7.6% | 0.8% | 3.18 | 2.97 | +5.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesus A. Castro (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.28 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.07 | 23.9% | 15.5% | 122 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| Luis Arejula R 2026 · 3.49 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.49 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .318 | 4.43 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.94 | 3.49 | 115 | 93 |
| Osiris German R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.26 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.14 | 26.3% | 15.5% | 59 | -1.12 | 3.11 | 187 | 91 |
| Edwin Jimenez R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.30 | 19.3% | 8.9% | 3.1% | .330 | 4.81 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 277 | +0.51 | 4.30 | 358 | 90 |
| Kyle Glogoski R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.46 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .277 | 3.93 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 93 | +0.47 | 3.32 | 206 | 90 |
| Blake Workman R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.00 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .307 | 3.94 | 23.8% | 19.5% | 105 | -0.06 | 3.11 | 213 | 89 |
| Harold Cortijo R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 18 | SU | 4.46 | 19.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .309 | 5.60 | 13.5% | 2.2% | 73 | +1.14 | 4.15 | 179 | 89 |
| Jose Montero R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.74 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 2.5% | .377 | 4.02 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 234 | +0.28 | 3.74 | 273 | 87 |
| Juan Bello R 2025 · 3.96 FIP | 18 | SU | 3.96 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 2.8% | .256 | 3.89 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 155 | -0.07 | 3.74 | 187 | 87 |
| Osiel Rodriguez R 2027 · 3.32 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.32 | 19.6% | 6.6% | 1.9% | .306 | 5.30 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 92 | +1.98 | 3.32 | 124 | 87 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2028 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 86 |
| Jerming Rosario R 2026 · 4.92 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.92 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 4.1% | .303 | 4.44 | 20.9% | 5.7% | 281 | -0.48 | 3.05 | 442 | 86 |
| Layonel Ovalles R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.56 | 23.1% | 10.2% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.59 | 17.4% | 3.0% | 146 | +1.03 | 2.60 | 227 | 86 |
| Chris Gau R 2028 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.18 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.58 | 2.98 | 211 | 86 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2029 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 86 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2029 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 86 |
| Scott Williams R 2028 · 3.36 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.36 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .238 | 3.68 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 76 | +0.32 | 2.89 | 119 | 86 |
| Robinson Hernandez R 2027 · 3.38 FIP | 20 | SU | 3.38 | 19.6% | 9.0% | 1.4% | .328 | 4.37 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 102 | +0.99 | 2.62 | 166 | 85 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.29 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.10 | 4.28 | 247 | 85 |
| David Morillo R 2026 · 3.24 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.24 | 19.9% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .273 | 4.18 | 17.0% | 1.6% | 69 | +0.94 | 3.24 | 142 | 85 |
| Yoel Diaz R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 19 | SU | 3.26 | 20.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .268 | 4.63 | 14.5% | -3.9% | 42 | +1.37 | 3.26 | 143 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2031
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2036
First FA Year 2037
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2031 | |||
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.7 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.7 | $4M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$1M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $6M | $16M | +$10M | ||