Jesus A. Castro
P
Lake Elsinore Storm
Age 19
RHP
5'11" / 155 lbs
A
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 26 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123113vR 104
ERA4.57
FIP4.57
K%18.8%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%10.2%
ROS IP26
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 85 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 11 | 8 | 43 | 170 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 73% | 3.9 | 18.4% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 0.9% | 2.91 | 2.97 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | ROK | DSL Padres Gold | 11 | 8 | 43 | 170 | 46 | 10 | 1 | 73% | 3.9 | 27.1% | 5.9% | 21.2% | 0.6% | 2.91 | 1.97 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | A | Lake Elsinore Storm | 15 | 15 | 60 | 261 | 65 | 20 | 1 | 100% | 4.0 | 18.4% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 0.5% | 3.92 | 2.96 | +1.1 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | SD | 5 | 5 | 26 | 109 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 5.2 | 18.8% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | SD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.8% | 8.5% | 10.2% | 2.9% | 4.57 | 4.57 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | SD | — | — | 85 | 370 | 85 | 29 | 4 | — | — | 23.1% | 7.9% | 15.2% | 1.1% | 4.12 | 3.45 | +1.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | SD | 6 | 6 | 27 | 114 | 22 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 4.5 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | SD | 3 | 3 | 13 | 55 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 4.3 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.45 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 3 | 3 | 13 | 56 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 4.4 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.07 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 43 | 43 | 200 | 844 | 165 | 75 | 30 | 100% | 4.6 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.49 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 26 | 23 | 103 | 431 | 79 | 36 | 3 | 88% | 4.0 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 0.7% | 3.50 | 2.97 | +2.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 45 | 200 | 837 | 154 | 70 | 6 | 88% | 4.0 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 0.7% | 3.50 | 2.97 | +5.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesus A. Castro (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 18.8% | 8.5% | 2.9% | — | 4.45 | 19.6% | 11.3% | 27 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Logan Gragg R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 20 | SP | 4.02 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.2% | .343 | 5.04 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.02 | 4.02 | 412 | 88 |
| Kyle Glogoski R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.46 | 19.9% | 8.5% | 1.7% | .277 | 3.92 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 93 | +0.46 | 3.43 | 206 | 87 |
| Ramon Marquez R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.98 | 21.1% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .331 | 3.00 | 30.4% | 19.8% | 49 | -0.98 | 3.00 | 104 | 87 |
| Juan Bello R 2025 · 3.83 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.83 | 18.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .256 | 3.93 | 18.2% | 7.6% | 155 | +0.10 | 3.83 | 187 | 87 |
| Andry Rondon R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.46 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.98 | 15.6% | 1.1% | 49 | +0.52 | 3.26 | 105 | 87 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 86 |
| Luis Arejula R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.46 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.0% | .318 | 4.42 | 15.7% | 3.5% | 71 | +0.96 | 3.46 | 115 | 86 |
| Jose Montero R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.77 | 20.8% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .377 | 3.97 | 15.8% | 4.6% | 234 | +0.20 | 3.77 | 342 | 85 |
| Eddy Yean R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.56 | 16.8% | 10.3% | 2.9% | .284 | 4.56 | 17.7% | 3.4% | 120 | -0.00 | 3.75 | 435 | 84 |
| José López R 2028 · 4.04 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.04 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .329 | 3.72 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 436 | -0.32 | 3.08 | 543 | 84 |
| Enniel Cortez R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 18 | SP | 4.65 | 17.0% | 7.3% | 3.8% | .366 | 6.26 | 14.6% | 0.8% | 35 | +1.61 | 2.37 | 128 | 84 |
| Anderson Bido R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 18 | SP | 3.52 | 15.4% | 6.5% | 1.6% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.92 | 292 | 83 |
| Yorman Gómez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.47 | 18.7% | 6.2% | 2.1% | .311 | 3.93 | 18.0% | 6.7% | 346 | +0.46 | 3.19 | 451 | 83 |
| Edgar Moreta R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 19 | SP | 3.87 | 16.3% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .269 | 5.59 | 17.7% | 9.2% | 117 | +1.72 | 3.87 | 170 | 83 |
| Yohanse Morel R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 18 | SP- | 4.62 | 17.0% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .350 | 5.11 | 16.2% | 2.7% | 96 | +0.49 | 3.33 | 263 | 82 |
| Dario Gardea R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 3.46 | 18.6% | 8.7% | 1.5% | .250 | 3.51 | 19.5% | 12.4% | 50 | +0.05 | 3.12 | 205 | 82 |
| Randry De Leon R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.64 | 18.0% | 11.5% | 2.9% | .284 | 4.99 | 20.4% | 1.4% | 59 | +0.35 | 4.37 | 132 | 82 |
| Eury Rosado R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 20 | SP | 3.80 | 17.2% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .231 | 5.87 | 19.2% | 5.1% | 55 | +2.07 | 3.80 | 109 | 82 |
| Luis Ghisays R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 19 | SP | 4.86 | 16.5% | 9.5% | 3.5% | .266 | 6.74 | 14.7% | 0.0% | 22 | +1.88 | 4.86 | 106 | 82 |
| Moises Castillo R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.1% | 11.7% | 2.8% | .269 | 4.08 | 19.4% | 5.0% | 65 | -0.50 | 3.77 | 101 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 26 | 19.2% | 8.4% | 1.11 | 4.53 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Jim Johnson ('18) | 4 | 63 | 20.7% | 8.0% | 0.90 | 4.19 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |