Jesus A. Castro

P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 20 RHP 5'11" / 155 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 1.4 · 2031

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#422ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Padres Go…	11	8	43	2.91	1.97	27.1%	5.9%	—	K 18.4% · BB 7.4% · FIP 2.95
2026	19	ASD	22	20	90	4.18	2.35	25.4%	7.9%	—	K 18.8% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.23
2027PROJ	20	MLBSD	—	—	0	4.43	4.43	19.1%	9.0%	—
2028PROJ35% MLB	21	MLBSD	5	5	25	4.39	4.34	19.9%	8.6%	0.3
2029PROJ57% MLB	22	MLBSD	8	8	40	4.25	4.16	21.0%	8.1%	0.6

Next 3 projected WAR 0.9Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 17, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 79%

CompsJosé López (age 21) · Logan Gragg (age 20) · Eury Rosado (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.43

FIP4.43

K%19.1%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%10.1%

Proj IP63

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$54M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$8M		$22M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	8	43	170	46	10	1	73%	3.9	18.4%	7.4%	11.0%	0.9%	2.91	2.95	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	8	43	170	46	10	1	73%	3.9	18.4%	7.4%	11.0%	0.9%	2.91	2.95	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	11	8	43	170	46	10	1	73%	3.9	27.1%	5.9%	21.2%	0.6%	2.91	1.97	—
2026	19	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	20	90	394	100	31	3	91%	4.1	18.8%	9.3%	9.5%	1.0%	4.18	3.23	—
2026	19	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	20	90	394	100	31	3	91%	4.1	18.8%	9.3%	9.5%	1.0%	4.18	3.23	—
2026	19	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	20	90	394	100	31	3	91%	4.1	25.4%	7.9%	17.5%	0.8%	4.18	2.35	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	SD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.1%	9.0%	10.1%	2.6%	4.43	4.43	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	71	298	59	26	8	100%	4.7	19.9%	8.6%	11.3%	2.6%	4.35	4.30	+0.9
2029	22	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	71	298	63	24	8	100%	5.0	21.0%	8.1%	12.9%	2.5%	4.22	4.13	+1.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	71	298	65	23	8	100%	5.4	21.8%	7.8%	14.0%	2.5%	4.10	4.01	+1.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	SD	13	13	71	298	67	23	7	100%	5.4	22.3%	7.5%	14.8%	2.5%	4.00	3.93	+1.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	SD	12	12	68	289	66	21	7	100%	5.7	22.7%	7.4%	15.3%	2.5%	3.92	3.87	+1.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	69	291	67	21	7	100%	6.3	22.9%	7.4%	15.5%	2.5%	3.88	3.85	+1.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	67	285	65	21	7	100%	6.1	22.9%	7.5%	15.4%	2.5%	3.88	3.89	+1.2
2035	28	MLB MLE	SD	11	11	64	271	62	21	7	100%	5.8	22.8%	7.6%	15.2%	2.6%	3.94	3.97	+1.1
2036	29	MLB MLE	SD	10	10	60	251	57	20	7	100%	6.0	22.5%	7.8%	14.7%	2.8%	4.04	4.10	+0.9
2037	30	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	54	227	50	18	7	100%	6.0	22.2%	8.1%	14.0%	3.0%	4.19	4.28	+0.7
2038	31	MLB MLE	SD	9	9	52	220	52	17	7	100%	5.8	23.8%	7.7%	16.1%	3.2%	4.20	4.21	+0.7
2039	32	MLB MLE	SD	8	8	46	193	45	16	7	100%	5.7	23.3%	8.1%	15.2%	3.5%	4.34	4.44	+0.5
2040	33	MLB MLE	SD	7	7	39	166	38	14	6	100%	5.6	22.8%	8.5%	14.3%	3.7%	4.55	4.69	+0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	SD	5	5	25	106	21	9	3	100%	5.0	19.9%	8.6%	11.3%	2.6%	4.39	4.34	+0.3
2029	22	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	40	169	35	14	4	100%	5.0	21.0%	8.1%	12.9%	2.6%	4.25	4.16	+0.6
2030	23	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	50	211	46	16	5	100%	5.6	21.8%	7.8%	14.0%	2.6%	4.13	4.04	+0.8
2031	24	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	56	236	53	18	6	100%	5.6	22.3%	7.5%	14.8%	2.6%	4.03	3.96	+1.0
2032	25	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	57	241	55	18	6	100%	5.7	22.7%	7.4%	15.3%	2.6%	3.95	3.90	+1.0
2033	26	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	60	253	58	19	6	100%	6.0	22.9%	7.4%	15.5%	2.6%	3.91	3.88	+1.1
2034	27	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	60	253	58	19	7	100%	6.0	22.9%	7.5%	15.4%	2.6%	3.91	3.92	+1.1
2035	28	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	58	245	56	19	7	100%	5.8	22.8%	7.6%	15.2%	2.7%	3.98	4.01	+1.0
2036	29	MLB CTX	SD	9	9	55	232	52	18	7	100%	6.1	22.5%	7.8%	14.7%	2.9%	4.08	4.14	+0.8
2037	30	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	50	211	47	17	6	100%	6.2	22.2%	8.1%	14.0%	3.1%	4.23	4.32	+0.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	SD	8	8	49	207	49	16	7	100%	6.1	23.8%	7.7%	16.1%	3.3%	4.24	4.25	+0.7
2039	32	MLB CTX	SD	7	7	43	182	42	15	6	100%	6.1	23.3%	8.1%	15.2%	3.6%	4.39	4.49	+0.5
2040	33	MLB CTX	SD	6	6	37	156	36	13	6	100%	6.2	22.8%	8.5%	14.3%	3.8%	4.60	4.74	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		111	111	640	2703	608	210	77	100%	5.8	22.5%	7.8%	14.7%	2.8%	4.13	3.75	+12.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	190	66	24	100%	5.8	22.5%	7.8%	14.7%	2.8%	4.13	3.75	+4.0
Career	—	MLE		33	28	134	564	105	49	5	85%	4.1	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	1.0%	3.77	3.15	+12.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	42	200	844	158	73	8	85%	4.1	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	1.0%	3.77	3.15	+3.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALake Elsinore Storm · 90 IPFIP 2.37 → 3.23 (+0.86)K% 25.4% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.38%	—	×0.740	18.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.87%	—	×1.180	9.28%
HR / BF /BF	0.76%	÷1.000	×1.300	0.99%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.37 → 3.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKDSL Padres Gold · 43 IPFIP 1.88 → 2.95 (+1.07)K% 27.1% → 18.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.06%	—	×0.680	18.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	5.88%	—	×1.250	7.35%
HR / BF /BF	0.59%	÷0.956	×1.400	0.86%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 91).

Result: FIP 1.88 → 2.95, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus A. Castro (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.6%	—	4.15	20.9%	12.7%	212	-0.28	—	—	—
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	90
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	87
Eury Rosado R 2021 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP	3.83	17.2%	9.2%	1.9%	.231	6.00	19.2%	5.1%	55	+2.17	3.83	109	86
Trevor Harrison R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	18	SP	4.03	21.0%	10.6%	2.5%	.331	4.94	19.7%	7.0%	205	+0.91	3.79	277	86
Jesus Lugo R 2019 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP-	3.79	17.8%	8.1%	2.1%	.243	6.08	19.8%	10.5%	45	+2.29	3.79	113	86
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	85
TJ Nichols R 2024 · 3.71 FIP	22	SP-	3.71	17.0%	9.0%	1.6%	.310	5.34	20.9%	12.4%	223	+1.63	3.71	295	85
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	85
Adam Leverett R 2021 · 3.41 FIP	22	SP-	3.41	20.4%	10.0%	1.4%	.274	4.46	16.0%	6.9%	228	+1.05	3.41	401	85
Jairo Garcia R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	20	SP-	4.47	16.4%	11.3%	2.4%	.298	5.25	10.1%	-1.9%	96	+0.78	3.88	148	85
Cedric De Grandpre R 2023 · 3.38 FIP	21	SP	3.38	18.2%	7.0%	1.7%	.327	4.17	22.9%	9.1%	183	+0.79	3.38	269	85
Chih-Jung Liu R 2021 · 4.41 FIP	22	SP	4.41	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.08	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.67	4.41	283	85
Tommy Bergjans R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	22	SP	3.39	17.2%	8.1%	1.3%	.327	4.36	15.7%	9.7%	268	+0.97	3.39	322	84
Jose Atencio R 2022 · 3.84 FIP	20	SP	3.84	16.0%	8.1%	1.9%	.293	3.93	14.5%	7.4%	191	+0.09	2.10	372	84
C.J. Culpepper R 2023 · 3.55 FIP	21	SP	3.55	18.7%	10.1%	1.4%	.291	4.11	19.2%	7.7%	192	+0.56	3.30	278	84
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.53	18.9%	10.0%	359	+0.90	3.63	429	84
Jarrod Cande R 2022 · 4.31 FIP	22	SP-	4.31	19.1%	7.3%	3.5%	.330	4.94	18.1%	9.1%	212	+0.63	4.31	315	84
Mason Englert R 2021 · 3.43 FIP	21	SP	3.43	19.5%	9.0%	1.5%	.311	4.53	22.1%	15.2%	249	+1.10	2.71	519	84
Curtis Taylor R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	22	SP	3.95	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.55	2.58	408	83
Melvin Rodriguez R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	18	SP-	3.51	17.3%	7.9%	1.6%	.291	5.44	15.4%	-0.5%	89	+1.93	3.51	135	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	62	22.0%	7.9%	1.06	4.13
Mark Guthrie ('89-'03, 8 WAR*)	4.9	65	22.8%*	8.5%*	1.07*	4.01*
Bob Howry ('10)	3.9	66	19.7%	7.6%	1.06	3.84
Bryan Shaw ('24)	3.8	64	20.8%	9.1%	0.97	3.96
Dan Wheeler ('12)	3.2	58	20.7%	7.2%	1.25	3.98
Tom Niedenfuer ('81-'90, 8 WAR*)	3.3	65	23.1%*	8.1%*	1.19*	3.80*
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*