Jesus A. Castro — OGILVIE

Jesus A. Castro P Lake Elsinore Storm

Age 19 RHP 5'11" / 155 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 2.5 · 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 25 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.47

FIP4.47

K%18.8%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 25 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$59M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD5050

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$7M	+$6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$7M	+$6M
2034	Arb-1	$4M	+1.3	$6M	+$4M
2035	Arb-2	$6M	+1.2	$5M	+$2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$13M		$30M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	8	43	170	46	10	1	73%	3.9	18.4%	7.4%	11.0%	0.9%	2.91	2.95	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	11	8	43	170	46	10	1	73%	3.9	18.4%	7.4%	11.0%	0.9%	2.91	2.95	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	11	8	43	170	46	10	1	73%	3.9	27.1%	5.9%	21.2%	0.6%	2.91	1.97	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	20	90	394	100	31	3	91%	4.1	18.8%	9.3%	9.5%	1.0%	4.18	3.23	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	22	20	90	394	100	31	3	91%	4.1	18.8%	9.3%	9.5%	1.0%	4.18	3.23	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	A RAW	SD	22	20	90	394	100	31	3	91%	4.1	25.4%	7.9%	17.5%	0.8%	4.18	2.37	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	93	392	76	29	11	100%	4.6	19.5%	7.5%	12.0%	2.9%	4.39	4.35	+0.6
2028	21	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	98	412	83	30	12	100%	4.9	20.1%	7.3%	12.8%	2.8%	4.30	4.25	+0.7
2029	22	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	102	432	91	30	12	100%	5.1	21.1%	6.9%	14.1%	2.8%	4.17	4.09	+1.0
2030	23	MLB MLE	SD	20	20	106	448	98	30	12	100%	5.3	21.8%	6.7%	15.2%	2.7%	4.05	3.97	+1.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	109	460	103	30	12	100%	5.7	22.4%	6.4%	15.9%	2.7%	3.95	3.88	+1.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	SD	19	19	110	466	106	29	12	100%	5.8	22.8%	6.3%	16.4%	2.7%	3.87	3.82	+1.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	110	466	107	29	12	100%	6.1	22.9%	6.3%	16.7%	2.7%	3.83	3.80	+1.5
2034	27	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	109	459	105	29	12	100%	6.0	22.9%	6.3%	16.6%	2.7%	3.83	3.84	+1.4
2035	28	MLB MLE	SD	18	18	105	445	101	29	13	100%	5.8	22.8%	6.5%	16.3%	2.8%	3.89	3.92	+1.2
2036	29	MLB MLE	SD	17	17	101	425	96	29	13	100%	5.9	22.6%	6.7%	15.9%	3.0%	3.99	4.05	+1.0
2037	30	MLB MLE	SD	16	16	95	399	89	28	13	100%	5.9	22.2%	7.0%	15.2%	3.2%	4.14	4.23	+0.7
2038	31	MLB MLE	SD	15	15	88	372	81	27	13	100%	5.9	21.8%	7.4%	14.5%	3.4%	4.32	4.43	+0.5
2039	32	MLB MLE	SD	14	14	82	345	74	27	13	100%	5.8	21.4%	7.8%	13.6%	3.6%	4.52	4.66	+0.2
2027	20	MLB CTX	SD	10	10	46	194	38	15	6	100%	4.6	19.5%	7.5%	12.0%	2.9%	4.43	4.39	+0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	SD	15	15	71	300	60	22	9	100%	4.7	20.1%	7.3%	12.8%	2.9%	4.34	4.29	+0.5
2029	22	MLB CTX	SD	17	17	86	363	77	25	10	100%	5.1	21.1%	6.9%	14.1%	2.8%	4.21	4.13	+0.8
2030	23	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	95	401	88	27	11	100%	5.3	21.8%	6.7%	15.2%	2.8%	4.09	4.01	+1.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	100	422	94	27	12	100%	5.6	22.4%	6.4%	15.9%	2.8%	3.99	3.92	+1.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	103	435	99	27	12	100%	5.7	22.8%	6.3%	16.4%	2.7%	3.91	3.86	+1.3
2033	26	MLB CTX	SD	18	18	105	443	102	28	12	100%	5.8	22.9%	6.3%	16.7%	2.7%	3.87	3.84	+1.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	SD	17	17	103	435	100	28	12	100%	6.1	22.9%	6.3%	16.6%	2.8%	3.87	3.88	+1.3
2035	28	MLB CTX	SD	17	17	100	422	96	27	12	100%	5.9	22.8%	6.5%	16.3%	2.9%	3.93	3.96	+1.2
2036	29	MLB CTX	SD	16	16	96	405	91	27	12	100%	6.0	22.6%	6.7%	15.9%	3.0%	4.03	4.09	+1.0
2037	30	MLB CTX	SD	15	15	90	380	84	27	12	100%	6.0	22.2%	7.0%	15.2%	3.2%	4.18	4.27	+0.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	SD	14	14	84	355	77	26	12	100%	6.0	21.8%	7.4%	14.5%	3.5%	4.37	4.48	+0.5
2039	32	MLB CTX	SD	13	13	78	329	70	26	12	100%	6.0	21.4%	7.8%	13.6%	3.7%	4.57	4.71	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		204	204	1157	4884	1077	331	145	100%	5.7	22.0%	6.8%	15.3%	3.0%	4.10	3.73	+16.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	186	57	25	100%	5.7	22.0%	6.8%	15.3%	3.0%	4.10	3.73	+2.8
Career	—	MLE		33	28	134	564	105	49	5	85%	4.1	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	1.0%	3.77	3.15	+12.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		49	42	200	844	158	73	8	85%	4.1	18.7%	8.7%	10.0%	1.0%	3.77	3.15	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus A. Castro (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.47	18.8%	7.7%	2.9%	—	4.23	20.2%	13.0%	293	-0.24	—	—	—
Kyle Glogoski R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	19.9%	8.5%	1.7%	.277	3.92	20.6%	9.1%	93	+0.46	3.32	206	88
Andry Rondon R 2015 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.8%	8.2%	1.8%	.283	3.98	15.6%	1.1%	49	+0.52	3.26	105	87
Juan Bello R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	18.3%	6.9%	2.9%	.256	3.93	18.2%	7.6%	155	-0.09	3.77	187	87
Logan Gragg R 2019 · 4.14 FIP	20	SP	4.14	17.4%	9.5%	2.4%	.343	5.20	15.2%	8.2%	202	+1.06	4.14	412	86
Luis Arejula R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	19	SP	3.52	21.9%	8.7%	2.1%	.318	4.46	15.7%	3.5%	71	+0.94	3.52	115	86
Jose Montero R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	19	SP	3.72	20.8%	7.9%	2.5%	.377	4.03	15.8%	4.6%	234	+0.31	3.72	375	85
Jordany Ventura R 2019 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP	4.08	16.8%	8.9%	2.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.08	219	84
Dario Gardea R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP-	3.46	18.6%	8.7%	1.5%	.250	3.45	19.5%	12.4%	50	-0.01	3.12	205	83
Yorman Gómez R 2022 · 3.36 FIP	19	SP	3.36	18.7%	6.2%	1.9%	.311	3.88	18.0%	6.7%	346	+0.52	3.18	490	83
Anderson Bido R 2017 · 3.52 FIP	18	SP	3.52	15.4%	6.5%	1.6%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	2.90	292	82
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	82
Cesar Espinal R 2023 · 4.28 FIP	17	SP	4.28	17.0%	10.1%	2.4%	.303	6.16	16.1%	-4.2%	56	+1.88	4.28	109	82
Yohanse Morel R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	18	SP-	4.77	17.0%	10.0%	3.4%	.350	5.18	16.2%	2.7%	96	+0.41	3.33	263	81
Eury Rosado R 2021 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP	3.83	17.2%	9.2%	1.9%	.231	6.00	19.2%	5.1%	55	+2.17	3.83	109	81
Jack Perkins R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	21	SP-	4.34	13.6%	5.4%	3.1%	.312	4.91	16.4%	7.5%	156	+0.57	4.34	176	81
Pedro Barrios R 2018 · 4.31 FIP	19	SP	4.31	14.7%	6.7%	2.9%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	159	81
Porter Hodge R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	20	SP-	4.20	19.3%	8.8%	2.9%	.336	3.40	24.2%	10.6%	249	-0.80	2.97	349	81
Yoelvin Silven R 2018 · 3.94 FIP	19	SP-	3.94	17.7%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	4.89	17.9%	12.6%	88	+0.95	3.94	254	81
Pedro Garcia R 2022 · 4.69 FIP	20	SP-	4.69	15.5%	6.8%	3.7%	.221	5.80	13.9%	0.2%	139	+1.11	4.69	247	81
Hyun-il Choi R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	19	SP-	3.97	18.4%	5.2%	3.2%	.293	4.26	19.1%	14.1%	106	+0.29	3.97	455	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.7	95	21.9%	6.8%	1.12	4.09
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13