Jose Atencio — OGILVIE

Jose Atencio P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 24 RHP 5'11" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.5 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION86 act + 8 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 105

ERA4.66

FIP4.66

K%15.4%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP8

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 93 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$8M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$2M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0%	0.3	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	27.00	-1.12	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0%	0.3	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	27.00	-2.90	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	8	51	198	61	4	1	73%	4.7	20.9%	2.5%	18.4%	0.8%	1.58	2.10	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	11	8	51	198	61	4	1	73%	4.7	30.8%	2.0%	28.8%	0.5%	1.58	1.21	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	64	266	60	18	4	86%	4.6	16.0%	8.1%	7.9%	1.9%	3.22	3.84	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	12	64	266	60	18	4	86%	4.6	22.6%	6.8%	15.8%	1.5%	3.22	2.88	—
2023	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	18	7	57	265	63	18	3	39%	3.2	17.6%	8.0%	9.6%	1.6%	5.37	3.51	—
2023	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	18	7	57	265	63	18	3	39%	3.2	17.6%	8.0%	9.6%	1.6%	5.37	3.51	—
2023	21	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	18	7	57	265	63	18	3	39%	3.2	23.8%	6.8%	17.0%	1.1%	5.37	2.52	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	134	584	101	34	11	92%	5.4	13.2%	6.7%	6.5%	2.3%	3.35	4.11	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	134	584	101	34	11	92%	5.4	13.2%	6.7%	6.5%	2.3%	3.35	4.11	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	134	584	101	34	11	92%	5.4	17.3%	5.8%	11.5%	1.9%	3.35	3.42	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	23	11	86	354	73	20	10	48%	3.7	15.2%	5.3%	9.9%	3.9%	3.57	4.60	—
YTD	24	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	23	11	86	354	73	20	10	48%	3.7	15.2%	5.3%	9.9%	3.9%	3.57	4.60	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	ROK RAW	LAA	3	1	8	36	12	3	0	33%	2.8	33.3%	8.3%	25.0%	0.0%	4.32	1.34	—
2026	24	A RAW	LAA	4	0	15	61	12	0	1	0%	3.8	19.7%	0.0%	19.7%	1.6%	2.40	2.34	—
2026	24	A+ RAW	LAA	11	10	50	200	40	12	7	91%	4.5	20.0%	6.0%	14.0%	3.5%	3.26	4.09	—
2026	24	AA RAW	LAA	2	0	7	31	4	2	2	0%	3.6	12.9%	6.5%	6.5%	6.5%	4.91	6.37	—
2026	24	AAA RAW	LAA	3	0	5	26	5	3	0	0%	1.8	19.2%	11.5%	7.7%	0.0%	6.75	2.94	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	LAA	7	0	8	32	5	2	1	0%	1.1	15.4%	7.2%	8.3%	2.9%	4.66	4.66	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	LAA	—	—	93	386	78	22	11	—	—	20.2%	5.8%	14.4%	2.8%	3.66	4.60	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	122	517	90	37	15	100%	6.8	17.3%	7.1%	10.3%	2.9%	4.54	4.49	+0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	122	517	96	37	15	100%	6.8	18.5%	7.1%	11.4%	2.9%	4.45	4.40	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	18	18	121	509	95	37	15	100%	6.7	18.6%	7.2%	11.5%	2.9%	4.43	4.43	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	117	494	92	36	15	100%	6.9	18.6%	7.4%	11.2%	3.0%	4.48	4.51	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAA	17	17	112	472	87	36	15	100%	6.6	18.4%	7.6%	10.8%	3.2%	4.58	4.64	+0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAA	16	16	105	443	80	35	15	100%	6.6	18.0%	7.9%	10.1%	3.4%	4.72	4.82	+0.1
2033	31	MLB MLE	LAA	15	15	98	413	73	34	15	100%	6.5	17.6%	8.2%	9.4%	3.6%	4.90	5.02	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	LAA	8	8	53	224	39	16	7	100%	6.6	17.3%	7.1%	10.3%	2.9%	4.57	4.52	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	12	12	81	342	63	24	10	100%	6.8	18.5%	7.1%	11.4%	2.9%	4.48	4.43	+0.5
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	93	393	73	28	12	100%	6.6	18.6%	7.2%	11.5%	3.0%	4.46	4.46	+0.5
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	98	414	77	30	13	100%	6.5	18.6%	7.4%	11.2%	3.1%	4.51	4.54	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAA	15	15	98	414	76	31	13	100%	6.5	18.4%	7.6%	10.8%	3.3%	4.62	4.68	+0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAA	14	14	94	397	72	31	14	100%	6.7	18.0%	7.9%	10.1%	3.5%	4.76	4.86	+0.1
2033	31	MLB CTX	LAA	13	13	90	380	67	31	14	100%	6.9	17.6%	8.2%	9.4%	3.7%	4.94	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	90	607	2565	467	193	83	100%	6.7	18.2%	7.5%	10.7%	3.2%	4.62	4.28	+4.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	154	64	27	100%	6.7	18.2%	7.5%	10.7%	3.2%	4.62	4.28	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		92	61	393	1669	262	106	38	66%	4.3	15.7%	6.3%	9.4%	2.3%	3.46	3.83	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	31	200	849	133	54	19	66%	4.3	15.7%	6.3%	9.4%	2.3%	3.46	3.83	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Atencio (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.66	15.4%	7.2%	2.9%	—	4.44	18.2%	11.0%	365	-0.22	—	—	—
Cooper Chandler R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	24	SP-	4.33	17.8%	9.3%	2.9%	.300	3.78	23.5%	17.1%	18	-0.55	3.78	107	90
Collin Lowe R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	24	SP-	3.62	15.2%	6.2%	1.8%	.292	3.11	15.1%	11.2%	75	-0.51	3.11	165	89
Matt Peacock R 2018 · 4.20 FIP	24	SP-	4.20	16.0%	7.6%	2.7%	.300	4.27	13.6%	5.2%	202	+0.07	3.93	354	89
Carlos Frías R 2015 · 4.01 FIP	25	SP-	4.01	14.1%	7.2%	2.2%	.320	4.85	13.0%	2.6%	74	+0.84	3.58	204	89
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	87
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	86
Ryan Etsell R 2015 · 3.66 FIP	23	SP-	3.66	14.7%	6.4%	1.8%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	110	86
Luis Santos R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	24	SP-	4.48	17.0%	6.5%	3.6%	.293	4.12	19.1%	10.5%	315	-0.36	3.53	472	86
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	84
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	84
Buck Farmer R 2015 · 4.41 FIP	24	SP-	4.41	16.4%	7.4%	3.2%	.307	4.01	19.6%	10.9%	370	-0.40	3.16	907	84
Garrett Burhenn R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	13.5%	8.4%	2.5%	.312	4.36	18.1%	10.2%	247	-0.03	4.30	433	84
Carlos Sano R 2018 · 4.82 FIP	25	SP-	4.82	17.6%	11.2%	3.3%	.282	9.22	19.7%	7.1%	18	+4.40	4.82	105	83
Randy Bell R 2018 · 4.36 FIP	23	SP-	4.36	14.4%	6.6%	3.0%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.36	120	83
Cesar Gomez R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	24	SP-	4.86	17.4%	7.5%	4.1%	.316	5.02	14.4%	4.6%	160	+0.16	4.11	345	83
Justin Dillon R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	24	SP-	5.26	11.8%	8.8%	3.7%	.265	4.34	15.6%	9.1%	124	-0.92	3.65	239	83
Joey Mancini R 2023 · 4.22 FIP	23	SP-	4.22	18.1%	10.0%	2.5%	.354	4.40	16.6%	6.3%	296	+0.18	3.64	391	83
Kevin Miranda R 2023 · 3.76 FIP	24	SP-	3.76	11.5%	5.7%	1.7%	.293	5.48	13.4%	5.0%	67	+1.72	3.76	153	83
Preston Morrison R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	24	SP-	4.97	13.4%	7.8%	3.7%	.300	4.94	17.1%	9.4%	58	-0.03	2.93	305	83
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.4	110	17.9%	7.4%	1.20	4.58
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Marco Gonzales ('24)	4.4	111	17.5%	6.1%	1.26	4.13
Alex Cobb ('23)	4.0	114	19.5%	6.6%	1.03	4.14
Jordan Montgomery ('24)	4.3	124	21.4%	6.9%	1.07	4.01
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45