Jose Atencio
P
Wilmington Blue Rocks
+1.1
WAR
Age 24
RHP
5'11" / 165 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.5 · 2028
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%19.6%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%11.1%
IP118
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.5peak
2028
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 27.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 11 | 8 | 51 | 198 | 61 | 4 | 1 | 20.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 1.58 | 2.14 | +1.6 |
| 2022 | 20 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 14 | 12 | 64 | 266 | 60 | 18 | 4 | 16.0% | 8.1% | 2.0% | 3.22 | 3.88 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 18 | 7 | 57 | 265 | 63 | 18 | 3 | 17.6% | 8.0% | 1.6% | 5.37 | 3.51 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 22 | A+ | Wilmington Blue Rocks | 25 | 23 | 134 | 584 | 101 | 34 | 11 | 13.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 3.35 | 4.09 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 98 | 42 | 14 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +1.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 132 | 556 | 113 | 46 | 16 | 20.4% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.37 | +1.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 139 | 586 | 122 | 48 | 17 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.33 | +1.5 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 142 | 598 | 125 | 49 | 17 | 20.9% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.35 | 4.34 | +1.5 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 26 | 26 | 142 | 598 | 125 | 49 | 18 | 20.9% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +1.5 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 25 | 25 | 138 | 584 | 121 | 48 | 17 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.41 | +1.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 134 | 567 | 116 | 47 | 17 | 20.5% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 4.44 | 4.47 | +1.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 24 | 24 | 130 | 547 | 111 | 46 | 17 | 20.3% | 8.5% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.55 | +1.1 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 23 | 23 | 124 | 525 | 105 | 45 | 17 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.58 | 4.63 | +0.9 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 22 | 22 | 119 | 501 | 99 | 44 | 16 | 19.7% | 8.8% | 3.3% | 4.67 | 4.73 | +0.8 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 21 | 21 | 113 | 476 | 92 | 43 | 16 | 19.4% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.77 | 4.84 | +0.6 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | WSH | 19 | 19 | 106 | 449 | 85 | 41 | 16 | 19.0% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 4.88 | 4.96 | +0.4 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | WSH | 18 | 18 | 99 | 420 | 78 | 40 | 15 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 5.01 | 5.10 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 37 | MLB | WSH | 17 | 17 | 92 | 389 | 70 | 38 | 15 | 18.1% | 9.8% | 3.7% | 5.15 | 5.24 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 69 | 50 | 307 | 1315 | 208 | 87 | 25 | 15.9% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 3.43 | 3.63 | +5.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 33 | 200 | 856 | 135 | 57 | 16 | 15.9% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 3.43 | 3.63 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Atencio (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.35 | 20.7% | 12.5% | 412 | -0.12 | — | — | — |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .300 | 4.44 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 78 | +0.55 | 3.89 | 183 | 93 |
| Alex FaGalde R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.79 | 19.1% | 6.7% | 2.7% | .266 | 4.98 | 16.1% | 6.4% | 162 | +1.19 | 3.79 | 279 | 92 |
| R.J. Gordon R 2025 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.31 | 21.5% | 9.5% | 3.3% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 129 | 91 |
| Jack Cushing R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.68 | 18.2% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.69 | 18.2% | 11.3% | 332 | +1.01 | 3.68 | 523 | 91 |
| Chris Devenski R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 16.8% | 7.2% | 2.7% | .298 | 2.89 | 27.7% | 21.7% | 236 | -1.19 | 2.10 | 608 | 90 |
| Garrett Edwards R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.86 | 18.5% | 7.3% | 2.5% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 107 | 90 |
| Blake Beers R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.61 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 3.6% | .298 | 4.96 | 17.7% | 8.5% | 323 | +0.35 | 4.41 | 416 | 90 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.44 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | .307 | 3.96 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 370 | -0.48 | 3.22 | 907 | 90 |
| Brian Edgington R 2027 · 3.97 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.97 | 19.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% | .321 | 5.23 | 19.3% | 7.0% | 58 | +1.26 | 3.97 | 171 | 90 |
| Austin Cates R 2024 · 3.95 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.95 | 19.7% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.95 | 110 | 89 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.21 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.3% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 194 | 89 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 89 |
| Tommy Wilson R 2025 · 4.35 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.35 | 16.3% | 7.7% | 3.0% | .261 | 3.08 | 22.8% | 15.9% | 15 | -1.27 | 3.08 | 129 | 89 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 2.8% | .300 | 3.77 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.53 | 3.77 | 107 | 89 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.70 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.2% | .309 | 3.24 | 21.0% | 14.2% | 101 | -0.46 | 1.87 | 210 | 88 |
| Aaron Brown R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.08 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.8% | .337 | 5.97 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 186 | +1.89 | 4.08 | 418 | 88 |
| Justin Armbruester R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.52 | 18.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .271 | 5.93 | 20.6% | 7.6% | 119 | +1.41 | 4.52 | 358 | 88 |
| Edison Frias R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.90 | 18.1% | 7.5% | 4.3% | .318 | 4.18 | 13.7% | 3.5% | 166 | -0.72 | 4.14 | 279 | 88 |
| Brett Sears R 2027 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.63 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 2.6% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 111 | 88 |
| Riley Gowens R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.63 | 22.6% | 10.3% | 3.9% | .279 | 4.35 | 22.4% | 12.5% | 132 | -0.28 | 4.35 | 254 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.5 | $14M | +$13M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.4 | $13M | +$12M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.1 | $11M | +$9M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.9 | $5M | +$2M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $4M | +0.8 | $4M | +$0.2M |
| Totals | $12M | $58M | +$47M | ||