Jose Atencio
P
Tri-City Dust Devils
Age 24
RHP
5'11" / 165 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.2 · 2030
2026 ROS PROJECTION43 act + 83 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.47
FIP4.47
K%19.6%
BB%8.4%
K-BB%11.2%
ROS IP83
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 126 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 27.00 | -1.12 | — |
| 2019 | 17 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.3 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 27.00 | -2.90 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 11 | 8 | 51 | 198 | 61 | 4 | 1 | 73% | 4.7 | 20.9% | 2.5% | 18.4% | 1.0% | 1.58 | 2.19 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Nationals | 11 | 8 | 51 | 198 | 61 | 4 | 1 | 73% | 4.7 | 30.8% | 2.0% | 28.8% | 0.5% | 1.58 | 1.21 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 12 | 64 | 266 | 60 | 18 | 4 | 86% | 4.6 | 16.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 1.9% | 3.22 | 3.83 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 12 | 64 | 266 | 60 | 18 | 4 | 86% | 4.6 | 22.6% | 6.8% | 15.8% | 1.5% | 3.22 | 2.88 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 18 | 7 | 57 | 265 | 63 | 18 | 3 | 39% | 3.2 | 17.6% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 1.8% | 5.37 | 3.60 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | A | Fredericksburg Nationals | 18 | 7 | 57 | 265 | 63 | 18 | 3 | 39% | 3.2 | 23.8% | 6.8% | 17.0% | 1.1% | 5.37 | 2.52 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 134 | 584 | 101 | 34 | 11 | 92% | 5.4 | 13.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 2.3% | 3.35 | 4.09 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 23 | 134 | 584 | 101 | 34 | 11 | 92% | 5.4 | 17.3% | 5.8% | 11.5% | 1.9% | 3.35 | 3.42 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | 12 | 5 | 43 | 177 | 45 | 7 | 4 | 42% | 3.6 | 17.8% | 3.3% | 14.5% | 3.6% | 3.32 | 3.98 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAA | 79 | 0 | 83 | 349 | 68 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 19.6% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.44 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 126 | 526 | 113 | 36 | 14 | — | — | 21.5% | 6.9% | 14.6% | 2.7% | 4.08 | 4.30 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 19.6% | 8.4% | 11.2% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.06 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAA | 13 | 13 | 84 | 353 | 72 | 29 | 10 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.4% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 2.9% | 4.40 | 4.37 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 13 | 13 | 84 | 353 | 74 | 29 | 10 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.34 | +0.7 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 12 | 82 | 348 | 73 | 28 | 10 | 100% | 6.9 | 20.9% | 8.2% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.37 | +0.6 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 12 | 80 | 337 | 77 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.8% | 7.5% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.18 | +0.7 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 11 | 76 | 322 | 73 | 25 | 10 | 100% | 6.9 | 22.5% | 7.8% | 14.8% | 3.2% | 4.29 | 4.31 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 11 | 72 | 303 | 67 | 24 | 10 | 100% | 6.5 | 22.2% | 8.1% | 14.1% | 3.4% | 4.41 | 4.49 | +0.3 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | LAA | 5 | 5 | 36 | 152 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 100% | 7.2 | 20.4% | 8.2% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.37 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | LAA | 8 | 8 | 56 | 236 | 49 | 19 | 7 | 100% | 7.0 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 12.7% | 2.8% | 4.33 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | LAA | 10 | 10 | 64 | 270 | 56 | 22 | 8 | 100% | 6.4 | 20.9% | 8.2% | 12.7% | 2.9% | 4.33 | 4.34 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | LAA | 10 | 10 | 67 | 283 | 64 | 21 | 8 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.8% | 7.5% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.22 | 4.15 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | LAA | 10 | 10 | 67 | 283 | 64 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 6.7 | 22.5% | 7.8% | 14.8% | 3.1% | 4.26 | 4.28 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 10 | 10 | 64 | 270 | 60 | 22 | 9 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.2% | 8.1% | 14.1% | 3.3% | 4.38 | 4.46 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 54 | 53 | 354 | 1495 | 325 | 119 | 45 | 98% | 6.6 | 21.7% | 8.0% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.93 | +6.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 30 | 30 | 200 | 844 | 184 | 67 | 25 | 99% | 6.6 | 21.7% | 8.0% | 13.8% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 3.93 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 81 | 55 | 351 | 1492 | 240 | 93 | 31 | 68% | 4.3 | 16.1% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 2.1% | 3.41 | 3.68 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 46 | 31 | 200 | 851 | 137 | 53 | 18 | 68% | 4.3 | 16.1% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 2.1% | 3.41 | 3.68 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jose Atencio (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 19.6% | 8.4% | 2.9% | — | 4.36 | 20.7% | 12.5% | 250 | -0.11 | — | — | — |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 93 |
| Cooper Chandler R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.50 | 17.8% | 9.3% | 3.1% | .300 | 3.74 | 23.5% | 17.1% | 18 | -0.76 | 3.74 | 107 | 91 |
| Tyler Uberstine R 2025 · 4.37 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.37 | 19.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .302 | 4.38 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 121 | +0.01 | 3.42 | 237 | 89 |
| Nick Payero R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | .285 | 5.72 | 16.6% | 4.6% | 107 | +1.66 | 4.06 | 178 | 88 |
| Rorik Maltrud R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.87 | 20.4% | 9.6% | 2.3% | .300 | 4.37 | 19.6% | 9.8% | 143 | +0.50 | 3.87 | 247 | 86 |
| Luis Santos R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.0% | 6.5% | 3.4% | .293 | 4.16 | 19.1% | 10.5% | 315 | -0.22 | 3.50 | 472 | 86 |
| Michael Darrell-Hicks R 2027 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .309 | 3.63 | 21.4% | 13.2% | 123 | -0.14 | 1.87 | 232 | 86 |
| Angel Araiza R 2027 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.55 | 16.7% | 6.5% | 3.7% | .287 | 3.95 | 15.0% | 7.6% | 193 | -0.60 | 3.53 | 289 | 85 |
| Wil Jensen R 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.28 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 173 | -0.36 | 3.41 | 368 | 85 |
| Aaron Brown R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.70 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .337 | 6.11 | 17.2% | 8.4% | 186 | +2.41 | 3.70 | 418 | 85 |
| Carlos Sano R 2027 · 4.98 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.98 | 17.6% | 11.2% | 3.6% | .282 | 9.58 | 19.7% | 7.1% | 18 | +4.60 | 4.98 | 105 | 84 |
| Matt Ager R 2025 · 5.00 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.00 | 17.1% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.00 | 146 | 84 |
| Matt Peacock R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.22 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .300 | 4.20 | 13.6% | 5.2% | 202 | -0.02 | 3.96 | 354 | 84 |
| Collin Lowe R 2026 · 3.71 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.71 | 15.2% | 6.2% | 2.0% | .292 | 3.22 | 15.1% | 11.2% | 75 | -0.49 | 3.22 | 165 | 84 |
| Hunter Dollander R 2027 · 3.81 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.81 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | .311 | 6.73 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.92 | 3.81 | 106 | 83 |
| Hayden Minton R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.53 | 19.1% | 7.0% | 3.9% | .278 | 5.41 | 19.6% | 8.0% | 66 | +0.88 | 3.96 | 260 | 83 |
| Jason Forjet R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.33 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 1.8% | .290 | 4.39 | 15.9% | 10.4% | 102 | +1.06 | 3.33 | 197 | 83 |
| Buck Farmer R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.54 | 16.4% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .307 | 4.08 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 370 | -0.46 | 3.05 | 907 | 82 |
| Cesar Gomez R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 4.2% | .316 | 5.06 | 14.7% | 4.2% | 160 | +0.16 | 3.97 | 345 | 82 |
| Brett Gillis R 2027 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 7 | 80 | 21.3% | 8.1% | 1.17 | 4.36 |
| Michael Fulmer ('23) | 7 | 96 | 20.3% | 7.6% | 0.99 | 3.94 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Matt Andriese ('21) | 7 | 73 | 21.7% | 6.7% | 1.34 | 4.63 |
| Matt Wisler ('22) | 8 | 63 | 20.1% | 7.6% | 1.40 | 4.59 |
| Daniel Norris ('22) | 8 | 70 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 1.37 | 4.70 |
| Kendall Graveman ('23) | 7 | 90 | 17.7% | 7.9% | 1.07 | 3.89 |