Jose Atencio

P Tri-City Dust Devils

Age 25 RHP 5'11" / 165 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.7 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2035

OGV OFP35OGV rank#705ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	AWSH	18	7	57	5.37	2.52	23.8%	6.8%	—	K 17.6% · BB 8.0% · FIP 3.51
2024	22	MIX2 levels	25	23	134	3.35	3.42	17.3%	5.8%	—	K 13.2% · BB 6.7% · FIP 4.11
2026	24	MIX5 levels	23	11	86	3.57	3.61	20.6%	5.6%	—	K 15.2% · BB 5.3% · FIP 4.60
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAA	—	—	0	4.59	4.59	16.3%	6.1%	—
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBLAA	4	4	29	4.54	4.51	18.0%	6.4%	0.3
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBLAA	6	6	39	4.53	4.54	18.4%	6.7%	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.6M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsNick Payero (age 24) · Hunter Dollander (age 25) · Noah Gotsis (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.59

FIP4.59

K%16.3%

BB%6.1%

K-BB%10.2%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.2M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2019	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0%	0.3	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	27.00	-1.12	—
2019	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0%	0.3	50.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	27.00	-2.90	—
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	11	8	51	198	61	4	1	73%	4.7	20.9%	2.5%	18.4%	0.8%	1.58	2.10	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	11	8	51	198	61	4	1	73%	4.7	30.8%	2.0%	28.8%	0.5%	1.58	1.21	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	12	64	266	60	18	4	86%	4.6	16.0%	8.1%	7.9%	1.9%	3.22	3.84	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	12	64	266	60	18	4	86%	4.6	22.6%	6.8%	15.8%	1.5%	3.22	2.88	—
2023	21	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	18	7	57	265	63	18	3	39%	3.2	17.6%	8.0%	9.6%	1.6%	5.37	3.51	—
2023	21	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	18	7	57	265	63	18	3	39%	3.2	23.8%	6.8%	17.0%	1.1%	5.37	2.52	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	134	584	101	34	11	92%	5.4	13.2%	6.7%	6.5%	2.3%	3.35	4.11	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	134	584	101	34	11	92%	5.4	13.2%	6.7%	6.5%	2.3%	3.35	4.11	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	134	584	101	34	11	92%	5.4	17.3%	5.8%	11.5%	1.9%	3.35	3.42	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	5 levels	23	11	86	354	73	20	10	48%	3.7	15.2%	5.3%	9.9%	3.9%	3.57	4.60	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	5 levels	23	11	86	354	73	20	10	48%	3.7	15.2%	5.3%	9.9%	3.9%	3.57	4.60	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	5 levels	23	11	86	354	73	20	10	48%	3.7	20.6%	5.6%	15.0%	2.8%	3.57	3.61	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.3%	6.1%	10.2%	3.1%	4.59	4.59	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAA	10	10	67	283	51	18	9	100%	6.7	18.0%	6.4%	11.6%	3.1%	4.51	4.48	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAA	9	9	62	263	48	18	8	100%	6.9	18.4%	6.7%	11.7%	3.2%	4.50	4.51	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAA	9	9	58	247	46	17	8	100%	6.5	18.5%	6.9%	11.6%	3.2%	4.54	4.58	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAA	8	8	54	228	42	16	8	100%	6.8	18.4%	7.2%	11.2%	3.4%	4.64	4.70	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAA	7	7	48	205	37	15	7	100%	6.9	18.0%	7.5%	10.5%	3.6%	4.78	4.88	+0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAA	4	4	29	122	22	8	4	100%	7.2	18.0%	6.4%	11.6%	3.2%	4.54	4.51	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	39	165	30	11	5	100%	6.5	18.4%	6.7%	11.7%	3.2%	4.53	4.54	+0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	44	186	34	13	6	100%	6.3	18.5%	6.9%	11.6%	3.3%	4.58	4.62	+0.4
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAA	7	7	44	186	34	13	6	100%	6.3	18.4%	7.2%	11.2%	3.5%	4.68	4.74	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAA	6	6	42	177	32	13	6	100%	7.0	18.0%	7.5%	10.5%	3.7%	4.82	4.92	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		30	30	198	834	152	58	28	100%	6.6	18.3%	7.0%	11.3%	3.4%	4.64	4.30	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	154	59	28	100%	6.6	18.3%	7.0%	11.3%	3.4%	4.64	4.30	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		92	61	393	1669	262	106	38	66%	4.3	15.7%	6.3%	9.4%	2.3%	3.46	3.83	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		47	31	200	849	133	54	19	66%	4.3	15.7%	6.3%	9.4%	2.3%	3.46	3.83	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 50 IPFIP 4.09 → 5.07 (+0.98)K% 20.0% → 15.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.00%	—	×0.770	15.40%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.00%	—	×1.150	6.90%
HR / BF /BF	3.50%	÷1.000	×1.250	4.38%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.09 → 5.07, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 15 IPFIP 2.34 → 3.04 (+0.70)K% 19.7% → 14.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.67%	—	×0.740	14.56%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.180	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	1.64%	÷1.000	×1.300	2.13%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.34 → 3.04, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Angels · 8 IPFIP 1.34 → 2.51 (+1.16)K% 33.3% → 22.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.680	22.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.33%	—	×1.250	10.42%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 1.34 → 2.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 7 IPFIP 6.37 → 7.37 (+1.00)K% 12.9% → 10.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	12.90%	—	×0.810	10.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.45%	—	×1.100	7.10%
HR / BF /BF	6.45%	÷1.000	×1.200	7.74%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 6.37 → 7.37, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 5 IPFIP 2.94 → 3.02 (+0.08)K% 19.2% → 16.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	19.23%	—	×0.860	16.54%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.54%	—	×0.900	10.38%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.100	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.94 → 3.02, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Wilmington Blue Rocks · 106 IPFIP 4.03 → 4.76 (+0.73)K% 15.2% → 11.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	15.15%	—	×0.770	11.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.150	8.21%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷1.016	×1.250	2.93%

Result: FIP 4.03 → 4.76, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFredericksburg Nationals · 29 IPFIP 1.06 → 1.63 (+0.58)K% 25.4% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.41%	—	×0.740	18.80%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.82%	—	×1.180	0.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.078	×1.300	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.06 → 1.63, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AFredericksburg Nationals · 57 IPFIP 2.57 → 3.51 (+0.94)K% 23.8% → 17.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.77%	—	×0.740	17.59%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.79%	—	×1.180	8.02%
HR / BF /BF	1.13%	÷0.917	×1.300	1.61%

Result: FIP 2.57 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jose Atencio (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.59	16.3%	6.1%	3.1%	—	4.52	18.3%	11.6%	188	-0.07	—	—	—
Nick Payero R 2024 · 4.21 FIP	24	SP-	4.21	16.5%	6.3%	3.1%	.285	5.81	16.6%	4.6%	107	+1.60	4.21	178	91
Hunter Dollander R 2022 · 3.92 FIP	25	SP-	3.92	19.2%	5.7%	3.1%	.311	6.77	17.6%	-0.7%	51	+2.85	3.92	106	89
Noah Gotsis R 2021 · 3.48 FIP	25	SP-	3.48	16.5%	6.5%	1.7%	.296	4.25	15.9%	8.6%	90	+0.77	3.48	138	88
Cha Seung Baek R 2004 · 4.77 FIP	24	SP-	4.77	14.4%	7.2%	3.6%	.288	3.95	15.7%	10.0%	108	-0.82	3.35	280	86
Ricky Castro R 2024 · 3.99 FIP	24	SP-	3.99	20.4%	8.6%	2.8%	.287	5.11	19.0%	10.6%	178	+1.12	3.99	241	85
Steven Bruce R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	25	SW	3.69	14.9%	5.0%	2.2%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.8%	94	+0.25	3.69	148	84
Angel Araiza R 2015 · 4.57 FIP	25	SP-	4.57	16.7%	6.5%	3.8%	.287	3.79	15.0%	7.6%	193	-0.78	3.40	289	84
Justin Topa R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	27	SP-	4.15	15.1%	7.9%	2.4%	.374	2.69	19.2%	12.6%	40	-1.46	2.67	284	80
Bryce Morrow R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	12.8%	7.9%	2.4%	.316	5.44	10.1%	-0.2%	50	+1.13	4.31	125	80
Nick Dean R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	23	SP-	3.86	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.275	3.47	21.7%	14.6%	111	-0.39	2.73	202	79
Zack Lee R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	23	SP-	3.51	19.2%	7.0%	2.1%	.293	4.54	15.0%	6.5%	153	+1.03	3.22	236	79
Ryan Watson R 2024 · 4.15 FIP	25	SP-	4.15	18.6%	4.9%	3.7%	.342	5.48	13.1%	5.4%	98	+1.33	4.15	165	79
Brooks Hall R 2015 · 4.12 FIP	25	SP-	4.12	14.3%	6.9%	2.5%	.291	4.00	14.0%	7.0%	153	-0.12	3.45	274	79
Alfredo Aceves R 2008 · 4.86 FIP	25	SP-	4.86	13.3%	8.3%	3.3%	.233	3.69	17.6%	10.9%	210	-1.17	3.53	541	79
Jeremy Hefner R 2012 · 3.56 FIP	26	SP-	3.56	15.2%	4.2%	2.2%	.316	4.33	17.8%	11.9%	131	+0.77	3.56	322	78
P.J. Walters R 2010 · 4.93 FIP	25	SW	4.93	17.1%	7.8%	4.2%	.293	5.05	14.1%	5.6%	101	+0.12	3.97	230	78
Darrell Rasner R 2006 · 4.07 FIP	25	SP-	4.07	13.3%	6.0%	2.4%	.246	4.56	12.5%	5.2%	138	+0.49	4.07	158	78
Parker Curry R 2019 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	17.8%	5.4%	4.6%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.73	256	78
Mitch Myers R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	25	SP-	4.29	16.1%	5.8%	3.3%	.338	5.64	17.3%	8.5%	92	+1.35	3.56	432	77
Kyle Scott R 2024 · 4.12 FIP	22	SP-	4.12	17.7%	8.2%	2.7%	.269	3.94	15.9%	4.3%	42	-0.18	3.94	138	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	57	18.0%	6.8%	1.26	4.58
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
James Russell ('16)	1.7	56	17.0%	7.0%	1.16	4.09
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Larry Casian ('90-'98, 0 WAR*)	1.2	40	14.7%*	6.8%*	1.25*	4.37*
Cris Carpenter ('88-'96, 2 WAR*)	2.1	69	18.3%*	7.4%*	1.15*	4.29*
Donn Pall ('88-'98, 3 WAR*)	2.5	63	17.1%*	6.2%*	1.20*	3.86*