Melvin Rodriguez
P
FCL Twins
Age 20
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
ROK
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION29 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150141vR 132
ERA5.86
FIP5.86
K%12.7%
BB%14.9%
K-BB%-2.2%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Twins | 11 | 8 | 46 | 189 | 48 | 12 | 2 | 73% | 4.2 | 17.3% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 1.7% | 2.72 | 3.57 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Twins | 11 | 8 | 46 | 189 | 48 | 12 | 2 | 73% | 4.2 | 25.4% | 6.3% | 19.0% | 1.1% | 2.72 | 2.37 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Twins | 11 | 9 | 43 | 183 | 32 | 22 | 1 | 82% | 3.9 | 11.9% | 15.0% | -3.1% | 0.8% | 3.53 | 4.41 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Twins | 11 | 9 | 43 | 183 | 32 | 22 | 1 | 82% | 3.9 | 17.5% | 12.0% | 5.5% | 0.5% | 3.53 | 3.45 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | 10 | 3 | 29 | 130 | 36 | 20 | 6 | 30% | 2.9 | 18.8% | 19.2% | -0.4% | 6.5% | 6.52 | 7.49 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIN | 26 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 14 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 12.7% | 14.9% | -2.2% | 2.9% | 5.86 | 5.86 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 12.7% | 14.9% | -2.2% | 2.9% | 5.86 | 5.86 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | MIN | — | — | 56 | 243 | 50 | 37 | 9 | — | — | 20.7% | 15.2% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 6.20 | 6.71 | -1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIN | 5 | 5 | 28 | 119 | 18 | 16 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 14.9% | 13.8% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 5.59 | 5.51 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIN | 2 | 2 | 14 | 59 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 7.0 | 14.9% | 13.8% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 5.59 | 5.51 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 14 | 58 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 6.9 | 14.9% | 13.8% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 5.59 | 5.13 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 32 | 32 | 200 | 844 | 130 | 116 | 29 | 100% | 6.2 | 14.9% | 13.8% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 5.59 | 5.13 | +0.6 | ||
| Career | — | 32 | 20 | 119 | 502 | 79 | 68 | 13 | 62% | 3.7 | 15.7% | 13.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.94 | 4.89 | +0.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 34 | 200 | 846 | 133 | 114 | 22 | 62% | 3.7 | 15.7% | 13.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.94 | 4.89 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Melvin Rodriguez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.86 | 12.7% | 14.9% | 2.9% | — | 5.51 | 14.9% | 1.2% | 28 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2027 · 5.32 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.32 | 13.9% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .237 | 4.05 | 20.5% | 4.7% | 73 | -1.27 | 3.79 | 101 | 88 |
| Denis Diaz R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.51 | 12.7% | 16.6% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.84 | 11.9% | -4.9% | 92 | +0.33 | 3.39 | 129 | 87 |
| Miguel Vinicio R 2025 · 5.69 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.69 | 13.8% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 1.4% | 47 | -1.71 | 3.63 | 164 | 87 |
| Alain Pena R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.09 | 14.2% | 13.9% | 2.6% | .222 | 5.50 | 15.6% | 3.5% | 190 | +0.41 | 3.66 | 265 | 86 |
| Jorge Cespedes R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.88 | 11.2% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .284 | 4.14 | 12.9% | 5.6% | 107 | -0.74 | 3.47 | 153 | 86 |
| Juan Gomez R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.39 | 10.9% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .345 | 3.58 | 11.2% | -0.1% | 61 | -1.81 | 3.58 | 113 | 86 |
| Danny Flatt R 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.05 | 14.5% | 15.7% | 4.0% | .304 | 5.46 | 12.5% | -1.1% | 65 | -0.59 | 5.31 | 112 | 85 |
| Erick Reynoso R 2026 · 6.52 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.52 | 10.7% | 20.4% | 3.2% | .305 | 6.42 | 14.7% | -7.7% | 135 | -0.10 | 5.76 | 168 | 85 |
| Lisander Brito R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.60 | 14.1% | 15.0% | 3.3% | .309 | 3.23 | 18.9% | 5.3% | 21 | -2.37 | 3.23 | 101 | 84 |
| Gillian Wernet R 2025 · 5.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.46 | 11.2% | 16.6% | 2.2% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 107 | 84 |
| Mason Denaburg R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.98 | 12.8% | 17.3% | 1.4% | .328 | 4.88 | 16.3% | -0.1% | 39 | -0.10 | 4.45 | 151 | 83 |
| Mason McGwire R 2026 · 6.65 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.65 | 11.7% | 21.2% | 3.4% | .298 | 3.50 | 23.5% | 12.6% | 52 | -3.15 | 3.50 | 128 | 83 |
| Nolberto Henriquez R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.75 | 16.0% | 13.4% | 2.4% | .305 | 5.43 | 11.3% | -3.1% | 52 | +0.68 | 4.75 | 108 | 83 |
| Daury Cabrera R 2026 · 5.97 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.97 | 9.7% | 14.3% | 3.4% | .290 | 4.12 | 15.1% | 5.0% | 44 | -1.85 | 2.86 | 191 | 82 |
| Jhon Vergara R 2025 · 5.75 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.75 | 11.1% | 13.1% | 3.5% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 106 | 82 |
| Josh Swales R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.43 | 11.8% | 14.6% | 2.7% | .356 | 5.63 | 15.1% | 1.4% | 66 | +0.20 | 5.43 | 129 | 82 |
| Felix Cepeda R 2025 · 5.78 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.5% | 14.6% | 3.3% | .297 | 5.96 | 17.0% | -6.4% | 71 | +0.18 | 3.61 | 204 | 82 |
| Yeury Tatiz R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.77 | 17.4% | 15.6% | 3.9% | .295 | 5.37 | 13.0% | -1.0% | 100 | -0.40 | 3.73 | 221 | 82 |
| Harold Chirino R 2025 · 6.05 FIP | 19 | SP- | 6.05 | 13.2% | 16.0% | 3.7% | .327 | 3.11 | 19.0% | 6.2% | 34 | -2.94 | 3.11 | 321 | 81 |
| Andres German R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.97 | 8.7% | 10.4% | 2.3% | .302 | 3.04 | 13.4% | 7.0% | 73 | -1.93 | 3.04 | 116 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 13.8% | 14.3% | 1.10 | 5.72 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |