Melvin Rodriguez

Melvin Rodriguez P FCL Twins

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs ROK peak 0.8 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 146138vR 130

ERA5.93

FIP5.93

K%12.7%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%-2.7%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL3030

CMD2525

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	8	46	189	48	12	2	73%	4.2	17.3%	7.9%	9.3%	1.6%	2.72	3.51	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	8	46	189	48	12	2	73%	4.2	17.3%	7.9%	9.3%	1.6%	2.72	3.51	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	11	8	46	189	48	12	2	73%	4.2	25.4%	6.3%	19.0%	1.1%	2.72	2.37	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	11	9	43	183	32	22	1	82%	3.9	11.9%	15.0%	-3.1%	0.8%	3.53	4.42	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	11	9	43	183	32	22	1	82%	3.9	11.9%	15.0%	-3.1%	0.8%	3.53	4.42	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	11	9	43	183	32	22	1	82%	3.9	17.5%	12.0%	5.5%	0.5%	3.53	3.45	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	19	4	46	219	59	30	8	21%	2.4	18.8%	16.9%	2.0%	5.0%	7.88	6.40	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Fort Myers Mighty Mussels	19	4	46	219	59	30	8	21%	2.4	18.8%	16.9%	2.0%	5.0%	7.88	6.40	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	MIN	11	4	34	152	40	22	6	36%	3.1	26.3%	14.5%	11.8%	3.9%	6.15	4.88	—
2026	20	A RAW	MIN	8	0	12	67	19	8	2	0%	1.5	28.4%	11.9%	16.4%	3.0%	12.75	3.86	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIN	45	0	47	198	30	28	6	0%	1.0	14.9%	14.1%	0.8%	2.8%	5.64	5.55	-0.5
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIN	47	0	49	208	35	27	6	0%	1.0	16.9%	13.1%	3.8%	2.8%	5.36	5.23	-0.4
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIN	49	0	51	215	39	27	6	0%	1.0	18.1%	12.5%	5.6%	2.7%	5.14	5.03	-0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIN	50	0	52	221	41	27	6	0%	1.0	18.8%	12.2%	6.6%	2.7%	5.00	4.92	-0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIN	50	0	53	224	43	27	6	0%	1.1	19.1%	12.0%	7.1%	2.7%	4.92	4.86	-0.2
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIN	50	0	53	224	43	27	6	0%	1.1	19.4%	12.0%	7.4%	2.7%	4.87	4.84	-0.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIN	50	0	52	220	43	27	6	0%	1.0	19.3%	12.1%	7.3%	2.7%	4.88	4.88	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIN	22	0	23	97	14	14	3	0%	1.0	14.9%	14.1%	0.8%	2.8%	5.64	5.55	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIN	34	0	36	152	26	20	4	0%	1.1	16.9%	13.1%	3.8%	2.8%	5.36	5.23	-0.3
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIN	41	0	43	182	33	23	5	0%	1.0	18.1%	12.5%	5.6%	2.7%	5.14	5.03	-0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIN	45	0	47	198	37	24	5	0%	1.0	18.8%	12.2%	6.6%	2.7%	5.00	4.92	-0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIN	47	0	49	207	40	25	6	0%	1.0	19.1%	12.0%	7.1%	2.7%	4.92	4.86	-0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIN	47	0	49	207	40	25	6	0%	1.0	19.4%	12.0%	7.4%	2.7%	4.87	4.84	-0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIN	48	0	50	211	41	25	6	0%	1.0	19.3%	12.1%	7.3%	2.7%	4.88	4.88	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		282	0	296	1251	230	155	34	0%	1.1	18.4%	12.4%	6.0%	2.7%	5.06	4.61	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	155	105	23	0%	1.1	18.4%	12.4%	6.0%	2.7%	5.06	4.61	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		41	21	135	591	96	79	15	51%	3.3	16.2%	13.4%	2.7%	2.6%	4.72	4.86	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	31	200	873	141	117	23	51%	3.3	16.2%	13.4%	2.7%	2.6%	4.72	4.86	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Melvin Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.93	12.7%	15.4%	2.9%	—	5.26	16.7%	3.5%	147	-0.67	—	—	—
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	85
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	85
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	85
Jorge Cespedes R 2016 · 4.88 FIP	20	SW	4.88	11.2%	12.2%	2.1%	.284	4.14	12.9%	5.6%	107	-0.74	3.47	153	85
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	85
Vitico Valdez R 2023 · 5.68 FIP	19	SW	5.68	11.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.260	4.04	14.7%	-2.5%	43	-1.64	4.04	132	84
Daury Cabrera R 2021 · 5.97 FIP	20	SW	5.97	9.7%	14.3%	3.4%	.290	4.15	15.1%	5.0%	44	-1.82	2.86	191	84
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	84
Jhon Vergara R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	19	SW	5.75	11.1%	13.1%	3.5%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	106	83
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	83
Edward Vasquez R 2017 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	9.1%	15.0%	1.0%	.286	3.86	12.4%	1.9%	79	-0.91	3.64	111	83
Mason Denaburg R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	19	SP-	4.98	12.8%	17.3%	1.4%	.328	4.95	16.3%	-0.1%	39	-0.03	4.48	151	83
Sandy Ozuna R 2023 · 5.42 FIP	17	SW	5.42	15.1%	17.4%	2.5%	.303	4.77	18.3%	7.9%	71	-0.65	3.03	103	83
Samuel Vásquez R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	19	SW	5.15	13.3%	17.2%	1.8%	.220	6.13	12.7%	-8.3%	49	+0.98	4.01	273	83
Jose Alberto Rivera R 2017 · 5.65 FIP	20	SW	5.65	16.1%	19.2%	2.7%	.185	3.68	20.3%	9.9%	115	-1.97	3.39	163	82
Xavier Moore R 2019 · 4.93 FIP	20	SW	4.93	12.5%	15.8%	1.6%	.288	4.35	27.6%	13.0%	71	-0.58	2.31	135	81
Marbin Montijo R 2016 · 6.37 FIP	20	SW	6.37	7.4%	15.2%	3.6%	.241	5.92	15.6%	-5.3%	51	-0.45	4.37	110	81
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	81
Andres German R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	20	SW	4.97	8.7%	10.4%	2.3%	.302	3.04	13.4%	7.0%	73	-1.93	3.04	116	81
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	48	17.8%	12.7%	1.06	5.16
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41