Melvin Rodriguez

P FCL Twins

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKMIN	11	8	46	2.72	2.37	25.4%	6.3%	—	K 17.3% · BB 7.9% · FIP 3.51
2025	19	ROKMIN	11	9	43	3.53	3.45	17.5%	12.0%	—	K 11.9% · BB 15.0% · FIP 4.42
2026	20	MIX2 levels	19	4	46	7.88	4.76	26.9%	13.7%	—	K 18.8% · BB 16.9% · FIP 6.40
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIN	—	—	0	6.17	6.17	15.2%	18.1%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIN	17	0	18	5.81	5.68	17.2%	15.9%	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff25Control30Command25

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsReynardo Cruz (age 20) · Mason McGwire (age 20) · Seth McClung (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 150142vR 134

ERA6.17

FIP6.17

K%15.2%

BB%18.1%

K-BB%-2.9%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL3030

CMD2525

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	8	46	189	48	12	2	73%	4.2	17.3%	7.9%	9.3%	1.6%	2.72	3.51	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	11	8	46	189	48	12	2	73%	4.2	17.3%	7.9%	9.3%	1.6%	2.72	3.51	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	11	8	46	189	48	12	2	73%	4.2	25.4%	6.3%	19.0%	1.1%	2.72	2.37	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	11	9	43	183	32	22	1	82%	3.9	11.9%	15.0%	-3.1%	0.8%	3.53	4.42	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	11	9	43	183	32	22	1	82%	3.9	11.9%	15.0%	-3.1%	0.8%	3.53	4.42	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	11	9	43	183	32	22	1	82%	3.9	17.5%	12.0%	5.5%	0.5%	3.53	3.45	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	4	46	219	59	30	8	21%	2.4	18.8%	16.9%	2.0%	5.0%	7.88	6.40	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	4	46	219	59	30	8	21%	2.4	18.8%	16.9%	2.0%	5.0%	7.88	6.40	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	4	46	219	59	30	8	21%	2.4	26.9%	13.7%	13.2%	3.7%	7.88	4.76	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	15.2%	18.1%	-2.9%	3.1%	6.17	6.17	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIN	34	0	36	151	26	24	5	0%	1.1	17.2%	15.9%	1.3%	3.0%	5.81	5.68	-0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIN	17	0	18	76	13	12	2	0%	1.1	17.2%	15.9%	1.3%	3.0%	5.81	5.68	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	74	13	12	2	0%	1.0	17.2%	15.9%	1.3%	3.0%	5.81	5.30	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	148	137	23	0%	1.1	17.2%	15.9%	1.3%	3.0%	5.81	5.30	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		41	21	135	591	96	79	15	51%	3.3	16.2%	13.4%	2.7%	2.6%	4.72	4.86	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	31	200	873	141	117	23	51%	3.3	16.2%	13.4%	2.7%	2.6%	4.72	4.86	-0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Twins · 34 IPFIP 4.88 → 6.91 (+2.04)K% 26.3% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.32%	—	×0.680	17.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.47%	—	×1.250	18.09%
HR / BF /BF	3.95%	÷1.000	×1.400	5.53%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.88 → 6.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 12 IPFIP 3.86 → 5.24 (+1.39)K% 28.4% → 21.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.36%	—	×0.740	20.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.94%	—	×1.180	14.09%
HR / BF /BF	2.99%	÷1.000	×1.300	3.88%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.86 → 5.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Twins · 43 IPFIP 3.45 → 4.42 (+0.97)K% 17.5% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.49%	—	×0.680	11.89%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.02%	—	×1.250	15.03%
HR / BF /BF	0.55%	÷1.006	×1.400	0.76%

Result: FIP 3.45 → 4.42, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKDSL Twins · 46 IPFIP 2.34 → 3.51 (+1.17)K% 25.4% → 17.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.40%	—	×0.680	17.27%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.35%	—	×1.250	7.94%
HR / BF /BF	1.06%	÷0.939	×1.400	1.58%

Result: FIP 2.34 → 3.51, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Melvin Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.17	15.2%	18.1%	3.1%	—	5.68	17.2%	1.3%	36	-0.49	—	—	—
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	88
Mason McGwire R 2024 · 6.46 FIP	20	SP-	6.46	11.7%	21.2%	3.0%	.298	4.11	21.4%	10.7%	79	-2.35	4.11	155	85
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	84
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	83
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	83
Jol Concepcion R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	22	SW	6.54	12.2%	20.0%	3.5%	.272	4.60	23.9%	3.9%	50	-1.94	4.60	154	83
Nestor Lorant R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	21	SW	5.53	18.7%	18.2%	3.1%	.280	3.86	20.5%	11.3%	249	-1.67	2.73	373	83
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	82
Drew Conover R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	23	SW	6.25	15.6%	29.8%	1.3%	.272	5.19	12.6%	-3.4%	106	-1.06	4.49	145	82
Kamdyn Perry R 2024 · 5.61 FIP	18	SW	5.61	12.3%	18.4%	2.2%	.300	5.55	14.9%	1.0%	116	-0.06	5.31	142	82
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	82
Radhames Liz R 2007 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	19.7%	18.0%	2.5%	.301	5.66	14.5%	2.3%	84	+0.59	2.81	219	82
Aneuris Rodriguez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	20	SW	5.22	16.0%	18.8%	2.0%	.310	6.65	14.6%	-15.5%	14	+1.43	3.15	118	82
Johan Moreno R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	21	SW	6.25	13.2%	16.7%	3.9%	.325	4.36	20.7%	8.0%	115	-1.89	3.09	216	81
Leudy Martinez R 2019 · 5.99 FIP	19	SW	5.99	15.2%	22.0%	2.5%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	116	80
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	80
Bryant Salgado R 2021 · 5.65 FIP	21	SW	5.65	14.2%	20.4%	2.1%	.219	4.83	15.9%	3.5%	89	-0.82	4.83	110	80
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	80
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	80
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.4	36	16.2%	17.0%	1.17	5.99
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*