Bryan Shaw
P Tacoma Rainiers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | G | GS | IP | ERA | FIP | K% | BB% | WAR | MLE rates | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 35 | MIX2 levels | 61 | 0 | 69 | 4.41 | 3.48 | 22.5% | 10.6% | 0.9 | K 21.3% · BB 10.1% · FIP 3.49 | |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX2 levels | 44 | 0 | 45 | 4.57 | 3.92 | 18.2% | 13.9% | 0.3 | K 15.8% · BB 12.6% · FIP 3.74 | |
| 2025 | 37 | AAASEA | 19 | 0 | 15 | 5.87 | 4.86 | 14.1% | 20.0% | — | K 12.1% · BB 18.0% · FIP 4.35 | |
| 2026 | 38 | No MLB games played | ||||||||||
| 2027PROJ | 39 | MLBSEA | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4.58 | 4.56 | 20.9% | 11.0% | -0.0 | ||
| 2028PROJ | 40 | MLBSEA | 28 | 0 | 29 | 4.83 | 4.99 | 19.7% | 11.7% | -0.1 | ||
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year) | |||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 23 | MLB MLE | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 0 | 28 | 122 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 19.7% | 5.7% | 13.9% | 1.6% | 2.54 | 3.06 | +0.5 |
| 2011 | 23 | MLB RAW | Arizona Diamondbacks | 33 | 0 | 28 | 122 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 19.7% | 5.7% | 13.9% | 1.6% | 2.54 | 3.06 | +0.5 |
| 2012 | 24 | MLB MLE | Arizona Diamondbacks | 64 | 0 | 59 | 252 | 41 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 16.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 1.6% | 3.49 | 3.64 | +0.6 |
| 2012 | 24 | MLB RAW | Arizona Diamondbacks | 64 | 0 | 59 | 252 | 41 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 16.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 1.6% | 3.49 | 3.66 | +0.6 |
| 2013 | 25 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Indians | 70 | 0 | 75 | 316 | 73 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 8.2% | 14.9% | 1.3% | 3.24 | 2.89 | +1.5 |
| 2013 | 25 | MLB RAW | Cleveland Indians | 70 | 0 | 75 | 316 | 73 | 26 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.1% | 8.2% | 14.9% | 1.3% | 3.24 | 2.89 | +1.5 |
| 2014 | 26 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Indians | 80 | 0 | 76 | 313 | 64 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 14.7% | 1.9% | 2.59 | 3.16 | +1.3 |
| 2014 | 26 | MLB RAW | Cleveland Indians | 80 | 0 | 76 | 313 | 64 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 5.8% | 14.7% | 1.9% | 2.59 | 3.15 | +1.3 |
| 2015 | 27 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Indians | 74 | 0 | 64 | 265 | 54 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 2.95 | 3.90 | +0.5 |
| 2015 | 27 | MLB RAW | Cleveland Indians | 74 | 0 | 64 | 265 | 54 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 2.95 | 3.88 | +0.5 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Indians | 75 | 0 | 67 | 275 | 69 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 3.24 | 3.73 | +0.6 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB RAW | Cleveland Indians | 75 | 0 | 67 | 275 | 69 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 3.24 | 3.71 | +0.7 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Indians | 79 | 0 | 77 | 312 | 73 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 17.3% | 1.6% | 3.52 | 2.78 | +1.6 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB RAW | Cleveland Indians | 79 | 0 | 77 | 312 | 73 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 17.3% | 1.6% | 3.52 | 2.79 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 30 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 57 | 268 | 55 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | 6.04 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2018 | 30 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 57 | 268 | 55 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 6.04 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB MLE | Colorado Rockies | 70 | 0 | 72 | 311 | 58 | 28 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 3.4% | 5.38 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB RAW | Colorado Rockies | 70 | 0 | 72 | 311 | 58 | 28 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 5.38 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB MLE | Seattle Mariners | 6 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.5% | 15.8% | -5.3% | 2.6% | 18.00 | 5.66 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB RAW | Seattle Mariners | 6 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.5% | 15.8% | -5.3% | 2.6% | 18.00 | 6.93 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Indians | 81 | 0 | 77 | 334 | 71 | 38 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 3.49 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB RAW | Cleveland Indians | 81 | 0 | 77 | 334 | 71 | 38 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 3.49 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB MLE | Cleveland Guardians | 60 | 2 | 58 | 261 | 52 | 25 | 9 | 3% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 5.40 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB RAW | Cleveland Guardians | 60 | 2 | 58 | 261 | 52 | 25 | 9 | 3% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 5.40 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 66 | 31 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 1.7% | 4.41 | 3.49 | +0.9 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 66 | 31 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 1.7% | 4.41 | 3.48 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 45 | 209 | 38 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 4.57 | 3.74 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX MLE | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 45 | 209 | 38 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 12.6% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 4.57 | 3.74 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX RAW | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 45 | 209 | 38 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 13.9% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 4.57 | 3.92 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 37 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | 19 | 0 | 15 | 85 | 12 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 12.1% | 18.0% | -5.9% | 0.0% | 5.87 | 4.35 | — |
| 2025 | 37 | AAA MLE | Tacoma Rainiers | 19 | 0 | 15 | 85 | 12 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 12.1% | 18.0% | -5.9% | 0.0% | 5.87 | 4.35 | — |
| 2025 | 37 | AAA RAW | Tacoma Rainiers | 19 | 0 | 15 | 85 | 12 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 14.1% | 20.0% | -5.9% | 0.0% | 5.87 | 4.86 | — |
| ▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | 796 | 2 | 764 | 3270 | 681 | 278 | 82 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 8.5% | 12.3% | 2.5% | 3.96 | 3.80 | +6.8 | ||
| ▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | SEA | 5 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.9% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 2.7% | 4.58 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 40 | MLB MLE | SEA | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 24 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB CTX | SEA | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 24 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 11.7% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 4.83 | 4.99 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | RAW | 824 | 2 | 793 | 3392 | 705 | 292 | 86 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 2.5% | 3.99 | 3.82 | +6.8 | |
| / 200 IP | — | RAW | 208 | 1 | 200 | 855 | 178 | 74 | 22 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 2.5% | 3.99 | 3.82 | +1.7 | |
| Career | — | MLE | 879 | 2 | 847 | 3654 | 745 | 330 | 82 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 4.04 | 3.76 | +6.6 | |
| / 200 IP | — | MLE | 208 | 0 | 200 | 863 | 176 | 78 | 19 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 4.04 | 3.76 | +1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2025 AAATacoma Rainiers · 15 IPFIP 4.44 → 4.35 (−0.09)K% 14.1% → 12.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 14.12% | — | ×0.860 | 12.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 20.00% | — | ×0.900 | 18.00% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.00% | ÷1.204 | ×1.100 | 0.00% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 141).
Result: FIP 4.44 → 4.35, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASalt Lake Bees · 41 IPFIP 3.62 → 3.74 (+0.11)K% 18.4% → 15.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 18.38% | — | ×0.860 | 15.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 14.05% | — | ×0.900 | 12.65% |
| HR / BF /BF | 0.54% | ÷0.886 | ×1.100 | 0.67% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).
Result: FIP 3.62 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAACharlotte Knights · 24 IPFIP 3.76 → 3.83 (+0.08)K% 25.2% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /BF | 25.24% | — | ×0.860 | 21.71% |
| BB% (unintentional) /BF | 13.59% | — | ×0.900 | 12.23% |
| HR / BF /BF | 1.94% | ÷1.152 | ×1.100 | 1.85% |
Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 130).
Result: FIP 3.76 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Career Comps
Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.
| Player | 162s | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4.2 | 60 | 20.8% | 9.3% | 0.98 | 4.02 |
| Guillermo Mota ('12) | 4.3 | 61 | 19.3% | 9.2% | 0.95 | 3.94 |
| Stan Belinda ('00) | 3.4 | 61 | 21.3% | 9.9% | 1.13 | 4.12 |
| Alan Embree ('09) | 3.9 | 52 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 1.10 | 4.59 |
| Mike Fetters ('89-'04, 6 WAR*) | 3.6 | 55 | 20.3%* | 10.4%* | 0.83* | 3.70* |
| Mark Guthrie ('89-'03, 8 WAR*) | 4.9 | 65 | 22.8%* | 8.5%* | 1.07* | 4.01* |
| Rich Rodriguez ('90-'03, 3 WAR*) | 3.2 | 64 | 17.3%* | 9.3%* | 1.05* | 4.00* |