Bryan Shaw
P
Tacoma Rainiers
+0.1
WAR
Age 38
RHP
6'1" / 225 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.46
FIP4.68
xFIP7.19
SIERA5.98
K%19.5%
BB%12.9%
K-BB%6.6%
IP20
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL4040
CMD4545
K†4545
FB Velo
p4193.9
Whiff%
p3723.4%
K%
p4321.1%
xwOBA vs
p570.305
CT+1.2 (64%)
SI (6%)
CU (12%)
CH-0.7 (5%)
FB-1.2 (6%)
SL-2.3 (13%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 74 | 0 | 64 | 265 | 54 | 18 | 8 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 2.95 | 3.91 | +0.8 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 75 | 0 | 67 | 275 | 69 | 25 | 8 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 3.24 | 3.54 | +1.1 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 79 | 0 | 77 | 312 | 73 | 19 | 5 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 1.7% | 3.52 | 2.86 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 30 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 63 | 0 | 57 | 268 | 55 | 29 | 10 | 21.0% | 10.5% | 3.3% | 6.04 | 4.47 | +0.3 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 70 | 0 | 72 | 311 | 58 | 28 | 12 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 5.38 | 4.51 | +0.4 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 6 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 4 | 6 | 1 | — | — | — | 18.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 81 | 0 | 77 | 334 | 71 | 38 | 10 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | 3.49 | 4.31 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 60 | 2 | 58 | 261 | 52 | 25 | 9 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 5.40 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 35 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 61 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 66 | 31 | 5 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 1.7% | 4.41 | 3.57 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 36 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 44 | 0 | 45 | 209 | 38 | 29 | 2 | 16.2% | 14.8% | 0.7% | 4.57 | 3.98 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 37 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 19 | 0 | 15 | 85 | 12 | 17 | 0 | 12.4% | 21.0% | 0.0% | 5.87 | 4.71 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | SEA | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 17 | 11 | 2 | 19.8% | 12.9% | 2.2% | 4.48 | 4.67 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | SEA | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 16 | 11 | 2 | 18.9% | 13.2% | 2.4% | 4.71 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 632 | 2 | 608 | 2651 | 545 | 268 | 67 | 20.5% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 4.44 | 4.03 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 208 | 1 | 200 | 873 | 179 | 88 | 22 | 20.5% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 4.44 | 4.03 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Shaw (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.67 | 19.8% | 12.9% | 2.2% | — | 4.86 | 18.9% | 5.8% | 20 | +0.19 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.16 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 1.0% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 219 | 75 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.17 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.0% | .272 | 3.38 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.79 | 2.67 | 295 | 74 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.52 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 2.2% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 144 | 74 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.03 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 2.1% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.45 | 200 | 72 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.65 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.65 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 68 |
| Peter Moylan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.58 | 18.9% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .211 | 4.94 | 17.8% | 6.2% | 28 | +1.36 | 3.11 | 174 | 67 |
| Logan Duran R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.65 | 15.5% | 8.9% | 1.3% | .427 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 187 | 66 |
| Logan Ondrusek R 2024 · 4.34 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.34 | 19.2% | 7.3% | 3.5% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.34 | 138 | 65 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 38 | SW | 3.55 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 2.6% | .179 | 4.12 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.57 | 3.55 | 164 | 64 |
| Hector Navarro R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.47 | 11.5% | 5.6% | 1.1% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 126 | 63 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 5.44 FIP | 38 | SW | 5.44 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 225 | 63 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 38 | SW | 4.32 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.75 | 720 | 62 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.33 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.2% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.49 | 174 | 61 |
| Ryan Madson R 2025 · 3.47 FIP | 37 | SW | 3.47 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 2.9% | .327 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.43 | 240 | 61 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.56 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.9% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 183 | 60 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2024 · 4.18 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.18 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 3.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 60 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.22 | 11.0% | 9.0% | 3.5% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 394 | 57 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2024 · 4.90 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.90 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 3.0% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.43 | 132 | 54 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.01 | 14.8% | 6.0% | 4.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.01 | 211 | 53 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2025 · 5.68 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.68 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | .383 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.80 | 226 | 52 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.