Bryan Shaw
P
Tacoma Rainiers
Age 38
RHP
6'1" / 225 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135126vR 117
ERA4.77
FIP5.16
K%17.1%
BB%14.9%
K-BB%2.1%
ROS IP53
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CT+1.2 (64%)
SI (6%)
CU (12%)
CH-0.7 (5%)
FB-1.2 (6%)
SL-2.3 (13%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 74 | 0 | 64 | 265 | 54 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 2.95 | 3.90 | +0.5 |
| 2015 | 27 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 74 | 0 | 64 | 265 | 54 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 13.6% | 3.0% | 2.95 | 3.88 | +0.6 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 75 | 0 | 67 | 275 | 69 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 3.24 | 3.74 | +0.7 |
| 2016 | 28 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 75 | 0 | 67 | 275 | 69 | 25 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 3.24 | 3.71 | +0.8 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 79 | 0 | 77 | 312 | 73 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 17.3% | 1.6% | 3.52 | 2.78 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 29 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 79 | 0 | 77 | 312 | 73 | 19 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.4% | 6.1% | 17.3% | 1.6% | 3.52 | 2.79 | +1.9 |
| 2018 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 57 | 268 | 55 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 6.04 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2018 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 63 | 0 | 57 | 268 | 55 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.5% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 3.7% | 6.04 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 70 | 0 | 72 | 311 | 58 | 28 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 3.0% | 5.38 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 31 | MLB | Colorado Rockies | 70 | 0 | 72 | 311 | 58 | 28 | 12 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 5.38 | 4.82 | -0.0 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 6 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.5% | 15.8% | -5.3% | 2.6% | 18.00 | 5.66 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 32 | MLB | Seattle Mariners | 6 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 10.5% | 15.8% | -5.3% | 2.6% | 18.00 | 6.93 | -0.2 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 81 | 0 | 77 | 334 | 71 | 38 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 3.49 | 4.40 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 33 | MLB | Cleveland Indians | 81 | 0 | 77 | 334 | 71 | 38 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 3.49 | 4.42 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 60 | 2 | 58 | 261 | 52 | 25 | 9 | 3% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 5.40 | 4.53 | +0.0 |
| 2022 | 34 | MLB | Cleveland Guardians | 60 | 2 | 58 | 261 | 52 | 25 | 9 | 3% | 1.0 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 5.40 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 66 | 31 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.5% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 1.6% | 4.41 | 3.52 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 35 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 69 | 293 | 66 | 31 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.5% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 1.7% | 4.41 | 3.48 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 45 | 209 | 38 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 14.8% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 4.57 | 4.03 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 36 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 45 | 209 | 38 | 29 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.2% | 13.9% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 4.57 | 3.92 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 37 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 19 | 0 | 15 | 85 | 12 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 12.4% | 21.0% | -8.6% | 0.0% | 5.87 | 4.71 | — |
| 2025 | 37 | AAA | Tacoma Rainiers | 19 | 0 | 15 | 85 | 12 | 17 | 0 | 0% | 0.8 | 14.1% | 20.0% | -5.9% | 0.0% | 5.87 | 4.86 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 38 | MLB | SEA | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 38 | 33 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.1% | 14.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.77 | 5.16 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | SEA | 43 | 0 | 45 | 192 | 30 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.9% | 15.7% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 5.27 | 5.60 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | SEA | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 24 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.8% | 16.4% | -1.6% | 3.1% | 5.73 | 6.03 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 39 | MLB | SEA | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 30 | 30 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.9% | 15.7% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 5.27 | 5.60 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 40 | MLB | SEA | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 24 | 27 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.8% | 16.4% | -1.6% | 3.1% | 5.73 | 6.03 | -0.7 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 629 | 2 | 610 | 2623 | 534 | 263 | 76 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.25 | +8.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 206 | 1 | 200 | 860 | 175 | 86 | 25 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 4.54 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 632 | 2 | 608 | 2651 | 545 | 268 | 64 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 4.44 | 3.96 | +10.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 208 | 1 | 200 | 873 | 179 | 88 | 21 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 2.4% | 4.44 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Bryan Shaw (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.16 | 17.1% | 14.9% | 2.2% | — | 5.80 | 15.4% | -0.6% | 84 | +0.64 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 15.2% | 0.9% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 219 | 80 |
| Zack Segovia R 2024 · 4.36 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.36 | 17.6% | 13.6% | 1.9% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 144 | 80 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.81 | 20.3% | 19.8% | 1.7% | .224 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 200 | 77 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 70 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.56 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.56 | 15.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 119 | 63 |
| Chien-Ming Wang R 2024 · 4.52 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.52 | 13.0% | 7.8% | 2.8% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.13 | 183 | 62 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 225 | 61 |
| Ervin Santana R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.38 | 18.8% | 7.6% | 3.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 720 | 59 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.59 | 15.4% | 6.2% | 3.7% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 174 | 56 |
| Ronald Belisario R 2024 · 4.74 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.74 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.10 | 126 | 54 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2024 · 5.07 FIP | 36 | SU | 5.07 | 17.5% | 12.7% | 3.3% | .381 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.32 | 132 | 52 |
| Seunghwan Oh R 2025 · 5.30 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.30 | 18.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | .383 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.81 | 226 | 49 |
| Joe Blanton R 2024 · 4.94 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.94 | 20.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | .319 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 240 | 45 |
| Chris Young R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.65 | 14.9% | 8.1% | 5.1% | .374 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.67 | 242 | 44 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 37 | SW | 5.02 | 11.0% | 9.0% | 3.1% | .348 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.56 | 394 | 41 |
| Jorge De La Rosa L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.99 | 19.3% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 405 | 37 |
| Craig Breslow L 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 5.02 | 17.8% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .400 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 159 | 36 |
| Pat Neshek R 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 38 | SU | 5.82 | 11.4% | 2.5% | 6.1% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.48 | 206 | 36 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 46 | 16.0% | 15.6% | 1.02 | 5.21 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |