Bryan Shaw — OGILVIE

Bryan Shaw P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 38 RHP 6'1" / 225 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA4.67

FIP4.99

K%16.5%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%3.2%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD4545

K†4040

CT+1.2 (64%)

SI (6%)

CU (12%)

CH-0.7 (5%)

FB-1.2 (6%)

SL-2.3 (13%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	27	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	74	0	64	265	54	18	8	0%	0.9	20.4%	6.8%	13.6%	3.0%	2.95	3.90	+0.5
2015	27	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	74	0	64	265	54	18	8	0%	0.9	20.4%	6.8%	13.6%	3.0%	2.95	3.88	+0.5
2016	28	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	75	0	67	275	69	25	8	0%	0.9	25.1%	9.1%	16.0%	2.9%	3.24	3.73	+0.6
2016	28	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	75	0	67	275	69	25	8	0%	0.9	25.1%	9.1%	16.0%	2.9%	3.24	3.71	+0.7
2017	29	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	79	0	77	312	73	19	5	0%	1.0	23.4%	6.1%	17.3%	1.6%	3.52	2.78	+1.6
2017	29	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	79	0	77	312	73	19	5	0%	1.0	23.4%	6.1%	17.3%	1.6%	3.52	2.79	+1.6
2018	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	63	0	57	268	55	29	10	0%	0.9	21.0%	10.5%	10.5%	3.1%	6.04	4.36	+0.1
2018	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	63	0	57	268	55	29	10	0%	0.9	20.5%	10.8%	9.7%	3.7%	6.04	4.99	-0.3
2019	31	MLB MLE	Colorado Rockies	70	0	72	311	58	28	12	0%	1.0	18.6%	9.0%	9.6%	3.4%	5.38	4.54	+0.0
2019	31	MLB RAW	Colorado Rockies	70	0	72	311	58	28	12	0%	1.0	18.6%	9.0%	9.6%	3.9%	5.38	4.82	-0.2
2020	32	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	6	0	6	38	4	6	1	0%	1.0	10.5%	15.8%	-5.3%	2.6%	18.00	5.66	-0.1
2020	32	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	6	0	6	38	4	6	1	0%	1.0	10.5%	15.8%	-5.3%	2.6%	18.00	6.93	-0.2
2021	33	MLB MLE	Cleveland Indians	81	0	77	334	71	38	10	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.4%	9.9%	3.0%	3.49	4.39	+0.1
2021	33	MLB RAW	Cleveland Indians	81	0	77	334	71	38	10	0%	1.0	21.3%	11.4%	9.9%	3.0%	3.49	4.42	+0.1
2022	34	MLB MLE	Cleveland Guardians	60	2	58	261	52	25	9	3%	1.0	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	3.5%	5.40	4.53	+0.0
2022	34	MLB RAW	Cleveland Guardians	60	2	58	261	52	25	9	3%	1.0	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	3.4%	5.40	4.61	-0.0
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	69	293	66	31	5	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	1.7%	4.41	3.51	+0.9
2023	35	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	69	293	66	31	5	0%	1.1	21.0%	10.1%	10.9%	1.7%	4.41	3.51	+0.9
2023	35	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	69	293	66	31	5	0%	1.1	22.5%	10.6%	11.9%	1.7%	4.41	3.48	+0.9
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	45	209	38	29	2	0%	1.0	15.3%	12.6%	2.6%	0.7%	4.57	3.78	+0.4
2024	36	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	45	209	38	29	2	0%	1.0	15.3%	12.6%	2.6%	0.7%	4.57	3.78	+0.4
2024	36	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	45	209	38	29	2	0%	1.0	18.2%	13.9%	4.3%	1.0%	4.57	3.92	+0.3
2025	37	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	19	0	15	85	12	17	0	0%	0.8	11.7%	18.0%	-6.3%	0.0%	5.87	4.39	—
2025	37	AAA MLE	Tacoma Rainiers	19	0	15	85	12	17	0	0%	0.8	11.7%	18.0%	-6.3%	0.0%	5.87	4.39	—
2025	37	AAA RAW	Tacoma Rainiers	19	0	15	85	12	17	0	0%	0.8	14.1%	20.0%	-5.9%	0.0%	5.87	4.86	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			549	2	525	2267	479	206	66	0%	1.0	21.1%	9.1%	12.0%	2.9%	4.39	4.09	+2.9
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	38	MLB	SEA	4	0	4	17	3	2	0	0%	1.0	16.5%	13.2%	3.2%	2.2%	4.67	4.99	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	39	MLB MLE	SEA	43	0	45	192	29	27	5	0%	1.1	15.3%	13.9%	1.4%	2.7%	5.12	5.42	-0.4
2028	40	MLB MLE	SEA	37	0	39	165	23	24	5	0%	1.1	14.2%	14.6%	-0.5%	3.1%	5.56	5.86	-0.6
2027	39	MLB CTX	SEA	43	0	45	190	29	26	5	0%	1.0	15.3%	13.9%	1.4%	2.7%	5.12	5.42	-0.4
2028	40	MLB CTX	SEA	37	0	39	165	23	24	5	0%	1.1	14.2%	14.6%	-0.5%	3.1%	5.56	5.86	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		629	2	610	2623	532	257	76	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	2.9%	4.52	4.22	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		206	1	200	860	175	84	25	0%	1.0	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	2.9%	4.52	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		632	2	608	2651	541	258	66	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	2.5%	4.44	3.99	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		208	1	200	873	178	85	22	0%	1.0	20.4%	9.8%	10.6%	2.5%	4.44	3.99	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Bryan Shaw (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.99	16.5%	13.2%	2.2%	—	5.62	14.8%	0.5%	84	+0.63	—	—	—
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	80
Santiago Casilla R 2018 · 4.14 FIP	38	SU	4.14	16.8%	15.2%	1.0%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	219	76
Fernando Rodney R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	38	SU	4.37	20.9%	9.4%	3.4%	.272	3.37	26.2%	15.2%	185	-1.00	2.69	295	73
Daniel Bard R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	38	SU	4.95	20.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.224	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	200	72
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	66
Juan Sandoval R 2019 · 5.41 FIP	38	SU	5.41	15.9%	7.2%	5.0%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	225	66
Chien-Ming Wang R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	36	SU	4.53	13.0%	7.8%	2.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.23	183	66
Ervin Santana R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	38	SU	4.40	18.8%	7.6%	3.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	720	63
Ronald Belisario R 2019 · 4.16 FIP	36	SU	4.16	12.7%	3.9%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.10	126	61
Matt Belisle R 2018 · 4.60 FIP	38	SU	4.60	15.4%	6.2%	3.7%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.51	174	59
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	53
Joe Blanton R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	36	SU	4.94	20.0%	5.6%	5.1%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	3.01	240	48
Brad Ziegler R 2018 · 4.03 FIP	38	SU	4.03	16.4%	6.2%	2.8%	.276	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	257	46
Seunghwan Oh R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	37	SU	5.75	18.2%	6.8%	6.0%	.383	—	—	—	—	—	1.87	226	46
Chris Young R 2017 · 5.68 FIP	38	SU	5.68	14.9%	8.1%	5.1%	.374	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	242	44
Jonathan Castellanos R 2019 · 5.24 FIP	37	SW	5.24	11.0%	9.0%	3.5%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	394	42
Pat Neshek R 2019 · 5.70 FIP	38	SU	5.70	11.4%	2.5%	5.9%	.286	—	—	—	—	—	1.57	206	41
Craig Breslow L 2018 · 5.13 FIP	37	SU	5.13	17.8%	15.1%	2.9%	.400	—	—	—	—	—	4.22	159	36
Jorge De La Rosa L 2018 · 4.07 FIP	37	SU	4.07	19.3%	9.5%	2.6%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.86	405	32

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	46	15.4%	13.8%	1.02	5.07
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82