Joel Lara
P
St. Lucie Mets
Age 19
RHP
6'2" / 210 lbs
A
2026 ROS PROJECTION46 act + 19 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.60
FIP4.60
K%22.5%
BB%11.2%
K-BB%11.3%
ROS IP19
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets Orange | 15 | 2 | 28 | 124 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 13% | 1.9 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 3.49 | 2.59 | — |
| 2024 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mets Orange | 15 | 2 | 28 | 124 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 13% | 1.9 | 26.6% | 6.5% | 20.2% | 0.0% | 3.49 | 1.62 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 1 | 34 | 164 | 42 | 33 | 2 | 6% | 2.0 | 18.0% | 24.6% | -6.5% | 2.1% | 3.71 | 5.85 | — |
| 2025 | 18 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 1 | 34 | 164 | 42 | 33 | 2 | 6% | 2.0 | 25.6% | 20.1% | 5.5% | 1.2% | 3.71 | 4.31 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 19 | A | St. Lucie Mets | 15 | 8 | 46 | 205 | 51 | 30 | 2 | 53% | 3.0 | 18.4% | 17.3% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 5.72 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | NYM | 3 | 3 | 19 | 81 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 19 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.5% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.60 | 4.60 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 19 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 65 | 286 | 69 | 39 | 4 | — | — | 24.2% | 13.7% | 10.5% | 1.5% | 5.39 | 4.48 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | NYM | 19 | 0 | 20 | 85 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 20 | MLB | NYM | 10 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.42 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 9 | 0 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.04 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 202 | 81 | 20 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 2.9% | 4.48 | 4.04 | +3.2 | ||
| Career | — | 47 | 11 | 108 | 493 | 90 | 86 | 6 | 23% | 2.3 | 18.2% | 17.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 4.50 | 4.44 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 87 | 20 | 200 | 913 | 166 | 159 | 11 | 23% | 2.3 | 18.2% | 17.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 4.50 | 4.44 | +2.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Joel Lara (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.60 | 22.5% | 11.2% | 2.9% | — | 4.42 | 23.0% | 12.6% | 20 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Jose Vasquez R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.20 | 21.9% | 13.4% | 2.3% | .359 | 6.76 | 14.4% | -12.1% | 45 | +2.56 | 4.20 | 102 | 84 |
| Layonel Ovalles R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.63 | 23.1% | 10.2% | 2.2% | .333 | 4.52 | 17.4% | 3.0% | 146 | +0.89 | 2.60 | 227 | 83 |
| Ricardo Brizuela R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.86 | 20.1% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .375 | 4.52 | 16.0% | 7.1% | 208 | +0.66 | 3.35 | 246 | 83 |
| Eccel Correa R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.35 | 19.4% | 11.9% | 2.5% | .316 | 4.40 | 14.2% | 2.3% | 151 | +0.05 | 3.96 | 186 | 83 |
| Anderson Cardenas R 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 18 | SW | 5.23 | 19.5% | 11.9% | 4.1% | .235 | 3.34 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 38 | -1.89 | 3.34 | 109 | 82 |
| Luis Aguilar R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.54 | 17.6% | 10.3% | 3.0% | .356 | 4.26 | 16.7% | 6.7% | 111 | -0.28 | 3.52 | 146 | 82 |
| Michael Dominguez R 2025 · 3.82 FIP | 18 | SW | 3.82 | 20.8% | 13.2% | 1.5% | .218 | 4.83 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 110 | +1.01 | 3.82 | 383 | 81 |
| Brandon Komar R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.63 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 2.8% | .327 | 5.21 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.58 | 3.00 | 538 | 81 |
| Kobe Robinson R 2028 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.3% | 3.0% | .296 | 3.45 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 84 | -1.15 | 2.98 | 107 | 80 |
| Saul Teran R 2027 · 5.23 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.23 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 4.3% | .333 | 3.83 | 20.8% | 8.7% | 94 | -1.40 | 2.28 | 158 | 80 |
| Jerming Rosario R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.83 | 21.1% | 10.5% | 4.0% | .303 | 4.38 | 20.9% | 5.7% | 281 | -0.45 | 3.05 | 483 | 80 |
| Joel Garcia R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.26 | 18.4% | 13.0% | 1.9% | .341 | 4.02 | 16.7% | 9.5% | 72 | -0.24 | 3.20 | 104 | 79 |
| Leury Tejada R 2025 · 4.03 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.03 | 16.5% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .286 | 5.06 | 17.4% | 6.2% | 39 | +1.03 | 4.03 | 183 | 79 |
| Kyle Zurak R 2029 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.48 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.48 | 3.28 | 181 | 79 |
| Joangel Gonzalez R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.42 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 2.5% | .312 | 4.91 | 19.4% | 3.4% | 93 | +0.49 | 3.96 | 127 | 79 |
| Alimber Santa R 2025 · 4.85 FIP | 18 | SW | 4.85 | 17.0% | 11.4% | 3.2% | .304 | 5.11 | 20.9% | 1.8% | 125 | +0.26 | 3.22 | 255 | 79 |
| Luis Victorino R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.27 | 18.9% | 12.8% | 2.1% | .301 | 4.95 | 15.9% | -5.0% | 84 | +0.68 | 4.27 | 148 | 79 |
| Denis Reguillo R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.33 | 17.6% | 11.6% | 4.1% | .358 | 5.23 | 10.7% | -8.3% | 52 | -0.10 | 3.78 | 109 | 78 |
| Juan Mendez R 2029 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.47 | 20.5% | 14.2% | 2.4% | .271 | 5.06 | 21.9% | 6.1% | 128 | +0.59 | 3.55 | 156 | 78 |
| Brendan Collins R 2029 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.60 | 21.8% | 10.3% | 1.9% | .294 | 3.85 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 54 | +0.25 | 3.60 | 122 | 78 |