Joel Lara — OGILVIE

Joel Lara P St. Lucie Mets

Age 19 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.4 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 124

ERA5.63

FIP5.63

K%20.4%

BB%18.1%

K-BB%2.3%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-2	$1M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	15	2	28	124	33	8	0	13%	1.9	18.1%	8.1%	10.0%	0.0%	3.49	2.59	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	15	2	28	124	33	8	0	13%	1.9	18.1%	8.1%	10.0%	0.0%	3.49	2.59	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	15	2	28	124	33	8	0	13%	1.9	26.6%	6.5%	20.2%	0.0%	3.49	1.62	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	1	34	164	42	33	2	6%	2.0	18.0%	24.6%	-6.5%	1.8%	3.71	5.70	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	1	34	164	42	33	2	6%	2.0	18.0%	24.6%	-6.5%	1.8%	3.71	5.70	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	1	34	164	42	33	2	6%	2.0	25.6%	20.1%	5.5%	1.2%	3.71	4.31	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	21	13	70	319	80	54	4	62%	3.3	18.6%	20.0%	-1.4%	1.6%	5.43	4.96	—
YTD	19	A MLE	St. Lucie Mets	21	13	70	319	80	54	4	62%	3.3	18.6%	20.0%	-1.4%	1.6%	5.43	4.96	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	A RAW	NYM	21	13	70	319	80	54	4	62%	3.3	25.1%	16.9%	8.2%	1.3%	5.43	3.81	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	NYM	68	0	72	302	64	47	9	0%	1.1	21.2%	15.5%	5.7%	2.8%	5.33	5.21	-0.5
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYM	72	0	75	318	69	43	9	0%	1.0	21.8%	13.6%	8.1%	2.8%	5.05	4.90	-0.3
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYM	75	0	79	334	76	40	9	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.1%	10.6%	2.7%	4.77	4.60	-0.0
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYM	78	0	82	346	81	38	9	0%	1.1	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	2.7%	4.54	4.39	+0.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYM	80	0	84	355	85	37	9	0%	1.1	24.0%	10.4%	13.6%	2.7%	4.36	4.24	+0.3
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYM	81	0	85	359	88	36	10	0%	1.0	24.4%	9.9%	14.5%	2.7%	4.23	4.14	+0.4
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYM	81	0	85	359	88	36	10	0%	1.0	24.6%	9.9%	14.7%	2.7%	4.16	4.11	+0.4
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYM	80	0	84	353	87	35	10	0%	1.0	24.6%	10.0%	14.6%	2.7%	4.16	4.15	+0.4
2035	28	MLB MLE	NYM	77	0	81	343	84	35	10	0%	1.1	24.5%	10.1%	14.3%	2.8%	4.21	4.24	+0.3
2036	29	MLB MLE	NYM	74	0	78	327	86	31	10	0%	1.0	26.2%	9.6%	16.7%	3.0%	4.14	4.10	+0.4
2037	30	MLB MLE	NYM	69	0	73	307	80	30	10	0%	1.1	25.9%	9.8%	16.0%	3.2%	4.22	4.28	+0.2
2027	20	MLB CTX	NYM	33	0	35	148	31	23	4	0%	1.1	21.2%	15.5%	5.7%	2.8%	5.33	5.21	-0.3
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYM	52	0	55	232	51	32	6	0%	1.1	21.8%	13.6%	8.1%	2.8%	5.05	4.90	-0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYM	64	0	67	283	64	34	8	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.1%	10.6%	2.7%	4.77	4.60	-0.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYM	70	0	74	312	73	35	8	0%	1.1	23.5%	11.1%	12.4%	2.7%	4.54	4.39	+0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYM	73	0	77	325	78	34	9	0%	1.1	24.0%	10.4%	13.6%	2.7%	4.36	4.24	+0.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYM	75	0	79	334	81	33	9	0%	1.1	24.4%	9.9%	14.5%	2.7%	4.23	4.14	+0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYM	77	0	81	342	84	34	9	0%	1.1	24.6%	9.9%	14.7%	2.7%	4.16	4.11	+0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYM	76	0	80	338	83	34	9	0%	1.1	24.6%	10.0%	14.6%	2.7%	4.16	4.15	+0.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	NYM	73	0	77	325	80	33	9	0%	1.1	24.5%	10.1%	14.3%	2.8%	4.21	4.24	+0.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	NYM	70	0	74	312	82	30	9	0%	1.1	26.2%	9.6%	16.7%	2.9%	4.14	4.10	+0.4
2037	30	MLB CTX	NYM	66	0	69	291	75	29	9	0%	1.0	25.9%	9.8%	16.0%	3.1%	4.22	4.28	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		731	0	767	3240	783	349	90	0%	1.0	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	2.8%	4.40	3.95	+5.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	204	91	23	0%	1.1	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	2.8%	4.40	3.95	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		53	16	132	607	111	114	8	30%	2.5	18.3%	18.8%	-0.5%	1.4%	4.57	4.68	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		80	24	200	920	169	173	12	30%	2.5	18.3%	18.8%	-0.5%	1.4%	4.57	4.68	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Joel Lara (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.63	20.4%	18.1%	2.9%	—	4.89	21.9%	8.2%	226	-0.74	—	—	—
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	90
Edinzo Marquez R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	17	SW	4.97	20.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.250	3.90	13.2%	0.4%	119	-1.07	3.26	188	90
Denny Larrondo R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	.293	5.26	18.1%	-0.4%	155	+0.49	4.48	293	86
Yimi Presinal R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	18	SW	4.75	20.2%	15.0%	2.7%	.326	4.71	20.8%	4.6%	92	-0.04	3.62	157	86
Yorman Galindez R 2022 · 4.93 FIP	19	SW	4.93	19.1%	18.3%	2.1%	.374	3.77	22.9%	6.2%	96	-1.16	3.63	201	85
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	83
Joseph Hernandez R 2018 · 5.37 FIP	18	SW	5.37	15.6%	15.0%	3.1%	.296	4.39	24.7%	8.0%	31	-0.98	4.39	260	82
Sandy Ozuna R 2023 · 5.42 FIP	17	SW	5.42	15.1%	17.4%	2.5%	.303	4.77	18.3%	7.9%	71	-0.65	3.03	103	82
Anthony Cruz R 2022 · 5.38 FIP	19	SW	5.38	16.7%	16.6%	2.9%	.237	4.19	18.2%	5.6%	180	-1.19	3.32	272	82
Janser Lara R 2016 · 5.61 FIP	19	SP-	5.61	20.1%	17.3%	3.7%	.354	5.04	17.9%	4.8%	118	-0.57	2.84	220	82
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	81
Josue Panacual R 2021 · 4.81 FIP	19	SW	4.81	17.5%	15.6%	2.2%	.286	4.41	14.2%	0.8%	91	-0.40	4.41	164	81
Eliazar Dishmey R 2023 · 6.05 FIP	18	SW	6.05	17.9%	15.1%	4.6%	.302	3.83	21.9%	9.2%	268	-2.22	3.40	311	81
Luis Reyes R 2023 · 6.24 FIP	17	SP-	6.24	18.4%	20.7%	3.8%	.333	4.28	17.1%	5.1%	129	-1.96	4.02	167	81
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	80
Yeriel Santos R 2023 · 5.89 FIP	19	SW	5.89	17.4%	22.9%	2.5%	.239	5.80	16.0%	-0.9%	276	-0.09	4.44	351	80
Ben Peoples R 2019 · 6.28 FIP	18	SW	6.28	21.8%	27.5%	2.8%	.227	4.51	23.0%	9.1%	103	-1.77	3.56	362	80
Alix Hernandez R 2023 · 4.80 FIP	19	SW	4.80	21.7%	15.6%	2.8%	.254	4.91	22.5%	10.2%	119	+0.11	3.55	170	80
Miguel Ullola R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	19	SP-	4.90	24.4%	24.8%	1.3%	.239	4.54	24.8%	7.6%	290	-0.36	3.93	494	80
Carlos Calderon R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	19	SW	4.49	23.6%	16.5%	2.4%	.328	5.44	16.2%	1.2%	197	+0.95	3.74	291	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	75	23.9%	11.2%	1.08	4.48
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98