Juan Mieses — OGILVIE

Juan Mieses P FCL Astros

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA5.29

FIP5.29

K%20.2%

BB%15.4%

K-BB%4.8%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	2	22	103	19	16	1	15%	1.7	12.5%	19.4%	-6.9%	1.4%	6.55	5.26	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	13	2	22	103	19	16	1	15%	1.7	12.5%	19.4%	-6.9%	1.4%	6.55	5.26	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	13	2	22	103	19	16	1	15%	1.7	18.4%	15.5%	2.9%	1.0%	6.55	4.15	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	12	3	36	164	43	21	0	25%	3.0	17.8%	16.0%	1.8%	0.0%	3.22	3.62	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	12	3	36	164	43	21	0	25%	3.0	17.8%	16.0%	1.8%	0.0%	3.22	3.62	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	12	3	36	164	43	21	0	25%	3.0	26.2%	12.8%	13.4%	0.0%	3.22	2.47	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	8	4	15	69	20	13	2	50%	1.8	19.7%	23.6%	-3.8%	4.1%	5.52	6.65	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	FCL Astros	8	4	15	69	20	13	2	50%	1.8	19.7%	23.6%	-3.8%	4.1%	5.52	6.65	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	HOU	8	4	15	69	20	13	2	50%	1.8	29.0%	18.8%	10.1%	2.9%	5.52	4.63	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	HOU	33	0	34	145	30	20	4	0%	1.0	21.0%	13.5%	7.6%	2.8%	5.05	4.95	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	HOU	16	0	17	72	15	10	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	13.5%	7.6%	2.8%	5.05	4.95	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		16	0	17	71	15	10	2	0%	1.1	21.0%	13.5%	7.6%	2.8%	5.05	4.57	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	119	24	0%	1.1	21.0%	13.5%	7.6%	2.8%	5.05	4.57	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		33	9	73	336	56	62	4	27%	2.2	16.6%	18.6%	-2.0%	1.3%	4.68	4.75	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		90	25	200	921	153	171	12	27%	2.2	16.6%	18.6%	-2.0%	1.3%	4.68	4.75	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Mieses (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.29	20.2%	15.4%	2.8%	—	4.95	21.0%	7.6%	34	-0.34	—	—	—
Will Kobos R 2018 · 5.58 FIP	20	SW	5.58	19.3%	16.0%	3.8%	.313	3.46	26.6%	11.6%	76	-2.12	2.44	139	89
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	87
Johzan Oquendo R 2021 · 4.22 FIP	20	SW	4.22	18.4%	14.5%	1.5%	.294	3.65	23.5%	5.7%	113	-0.57	3.62	187	87
Juan Mendez R 2021 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	20.5%	14.2%	2.3%	.271	5.07	21.9%	6.1%	128	+0.62	3.69	156	87
Denny Larrondo R 2021 · 4.77 FIP	19	SW	4.77	22.7%	17.5%	2.5%	.293	5.26	18.1%	-0.4%	155	+0.49	4.48	293	86
Yimi Presinal R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	18	SW	4.75	20.2%	15.0%	2.7%	.326	4.71	20.8%	4.6%	92	-0.04	3.62	157	85
Over Galue R 2021 · 5.01 FIP	20	SW	5.01	17.5%	17.0%	2.2%	.346	4.16	18.2%	3.6%	94	-0.85	4.16	122	84
Edinzo Marquez R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	17	SW	4.97	20.5%	18.9%	2.2%	.250	3.90	13.2%	0.4%	119	-1.07	3.26	188	83
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	83
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	82
Jaydenn Estanista R 2022 · 5.61 FIP	20	SW	5.61	20.2%	16.9%	3.8%	.172	5.14	20.6%	2.4%	123	-0.47	4.59	230	82
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	81
Sam Ryan R 2021 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	16.4%	14.7%	1.5%	.328	3.85	13.7%	2.9%	49	-0.53	3.80	178	81
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	81
Trayson Kubo R 2019 · 5.01 FIP	21	SW	5.01	19.8%	15.6%	2.9%	.450	4.82	17.7%	1.4%	66	-0.19	4.48	107	81
Eccel Correa R 2023 · 4.39 FIP	20	SW	4.39	19.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.316	4.41	14.0%	2.2%	154	+0.02	3.96	189	81
Juan Burgos R 2019 · 4.75 FIP	19	SW	4.75	15.4%	13.5%	2.3%	.292	4.38	17.7%	0.8%	58	-0.37	3.50	282	80
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	80
Josh White R 2023 · 5.12 FIP	22	SW	5.12	17.7%	13.9%	3.2%	.244	3.19	27.2%	16.7%	182	-1.93	1.90	247	79
Luis De La Cruz R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	20	SW	4.31	17.5%	16.9%	1.0%	.281	5.19	18.3%	-2.9%	124	+0.88	3.55	158	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	20.8%	14.2%	1.09	5.13
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99