Juan Burgos
P
Reno Aces
Age 26
RHP
6'0" / 185 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 17 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119109vR 100
ERA4.36
FIP4.38
K%21.6%
BB%9.5%
K-BB%12.2%
ROS IP17
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p6895.8
Whiff%
p6026.9%
K%
p4521.5%
xwOBA vs
p100.364
CT+1.8 (33%)
SI (32%)
CU (6%)
SL-1.5 (23%)
FB-3.7 (35%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 17 | 4 | 42 | 185 | 42 | 20 | 3 | 24% | 2.5 | 15.4% | 13.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.19 | 4.75 | — |
| 2019 | 19 | ROK | DSL Mariners | 17 | 4 | 42 | 185 | 42 | 20 | 3 | 24% | 2.5 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 1.6% | 3.19 | 3.45 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 16 | 78 | 19 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.7% | 18.1% | -0.4% | 0.0% | 4.41 | 3.90 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 0 | 16 | 78 | 19 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.4% | 14.1% | 10.3% | 1.3% | 4.41 | 3.59 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 3 | 43 | 187 | 46 | 26 | 2 | 12% | 1.7 | 17.7% | 16.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.70 | 4.62 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 3 | 43 | 187 | 46 | 26 | 2 | 12% | 1.7 | 24.6% | 13.9% | 10.7% | 1.1% | 2.70 | 3.38 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Modesto Nuts | 30 | 0 | 32 | 146 | 39 | 17 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 13.7% | 6.0% | 1.2% | 2.53 | 3.81 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Modesto Nuts | 30 | 0 | 32 | 146 | 39 | 17 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 11.6% | 15.1% | 0.7% | 2.53 | 2.66 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 38 | 3 | 61 | 258 | 70 | 23 | 5 | 8% | 1.6 | 20.9% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 1.8% | 3.38 | 3.62 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | 38 | 3 | 61 | 258 | 70 | 23 | 5 | 8% | 1.6 | 27.1% | 8.9% | 18.2% | 1.9% | 3.38 | 3.00 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 49 | 208 | 48 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 22.1% | 8.6% | 13.4% | 2.3% | 2.96 | 3.60 | +0.5 |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 49 | 208 | 48 | 19 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.1% | 9.1% | 13.9% | 1.4% | 2.96 | 3.10 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 31 | 0 | 34 | 150 | 22 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 13.4% | 9.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 6.09 | 5.26 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ARI | 16 | 0 | 17 | 73 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | ARI | 16 | 0 | 17 | 72 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 2.8% | 4.36 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 26 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 51 | 223 | 38 | 20 | 7 | — | — | 16.9% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 5.51 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2026 FULL | 26 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 19 | 79 | 38 | 20 | 7 | — | — | 48.1% | 25.3% | 22.8% | 8.9% | 15.18 | 7.16 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 0 | 27 | 115 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 12.3% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 4.41 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 55 | 0 | 58 | 253 | 54 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.08 | +0.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 876 | 187 | 83 | 24 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.2% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.82 | 4.08 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 198 | 10 | 278 | 1212 | 224 | 149 | 24 | 5% | 1.4 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 3.46 | 4.19 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 142 | 7 | 200 | 872 | 161 | 107 | 17 | 5% | 1.4 | 18.5% | 12.3% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 3.46 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Juan Burgos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 21.6% | 9.5% | 2.8% | — | 4.41 | 21.8% | 12.3% | 27 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Kaleb Bowman R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.80 | 22.0% | 7.5% | 2.9% | .333 | 4.41 | 18.1% | 6.6% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.74 | 185 | 85 |
| Jason Stoffel R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.54 | 23.4% | 10.1% | 2.1% | .267 | 3.70 | 27.2% | 19.2% | 59 | +0.16 | 3.54 | 103 | 85 |
| Kyle Winkler R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.60 | 23.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .234 | 3.53 | 18.4% | 8.3% | 43 | -0.07 | 2.96 | 114 | 83 |
| Jesus Pirela R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.91 | 23.7% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .305 | 3.92 | 17.1% | 13.9% | 45 | +0.01 | 3.21 | 161 | 83 |
| Daniel Corcino R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.75 | 21.7% | 11.4% | 1.9% | .292 | 4.81 | 19.0% | 7.9% | 223 | +1.06 | 3.75 | 299 | 82 |
| Jack Hartman R 2026 · 4.36 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.36 | 20.9% | 8.8% | 3.5% | .310 | 4.40 | 17.6% | 5.6% | 46 | +0.04 | 3.42 | 161 | 82 |
| Ronald Peña R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.34 | 23.4% | 11.6% | 3.2% | .273 | 4.52 | 18.7% | 7.1% | 88 | +0.18 | 3.57 | 187 | 82 |
| Jose Rafael De Paula R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.46 | 19.9% | 9.8% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.02 | 22.7% | 10.3% | 89 | +0.56 | 2.69 | 315 | 82 |
| Jhan Mariñez R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.46 | 23.1% | 9.3% | 2.1% | .244 | 3.76 | 18.9% | 11.1% | 168 | +0.30 | 3.23 | 253 | 82 |
| Nick Altermatt R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.51 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 4.2% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.25 | 121 | 81 |
| Matt Pushard R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.77 | 24.1% | 8.9% | 2.9% | .242 | 3.56 | 22.5% | 12.4% | 100 | -0.21 | 3.05 | 205 | 81 |
| Shawn Armstrong R 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.11 | 22.1% | 9.2% | 3.1% | .282 | 3.23 | 26.9% | 17.2% | 144 | -0.88 | 1.79 | 647 | 81 |
| Jason Ruffcorn R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.97 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .255 | 4.64 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 100 | +0.67 | 3.97 | 248 | 80 |
| Rob Scahill R 2028 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 16.9% | 7.7% | 2.1% | .288 | 3.34 | 17.9% | 10.1% | 171 | -0.49 | 2.93 | 201 | 80 |
| Chuck King R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.21 | 19.4% | 9.9% | 0.9% | .308 | 4.38 | 16.6% | 8.4% | 199 | +1.17 | 3.21 | 237 | 80 |
| Jackson Hicks R 2025 · 3.94 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.94 | 22.6% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .336 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 116 | 80 |
| Brandon Cunniff R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.16 | 24.5% | 13.2% | 2.6% | .256 | 4.34 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 115 | +0.18 | 3.78 | 180 | 80 |
| Juan Ramon Noriega R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.52 | 21.3% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .243 | 3.63 | 24.8% | 17.1% | 57 | -0.89 | 3.56 | 198 | 79 |
| Zach Bryant R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.82 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 3.7% | .313 | 4.72 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 84 | -0.10 | 4.36 | 194 | 79 |
| Kelly Austin R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.58 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.1% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 119 | 79 |