Juan Burgos — OGILVIE

Juan Burgos P Reno Aces

Age 26 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 2 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.38

FIP4.41

K%21.6%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%11.9%

ROS IP2

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6895.8

Whiff%

p6026.9%

p4521.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.364

CT+1.8 (33%)

SI (32%)

CU (6%)

SL-1.5 (23%)

FB-3.7 (35%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mariners	17	4	42	185	42	20	3	24%	2.5	15.4%	13.5%	1.9%	2.3%	3.19	4.75	—
2019	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mariners	17	4	42	185	42	20	3	24%	2.5	22.7%	10.8%	11.9%	1.6%	3.19	3.45	—
2021	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	0	16	78	19	11	1	0%	1.2	17.7%	18.1%	-0.4%	0.0%	4.41	3.90	—
2021	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	0	16	78	19	11	1	0%	1.2	24.4%	14.1%	10.3%	1.3%	4.41	3.59	—
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	3	43	187	46	26	2	12%	1.7	17.7%	16.5%	1.2%	1.5%	2.70	4.54	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	3	43	187	46	26	2	12%	1.7	24.6%	13.9%	10.7%	1.1%	2.70	3.38	—
2023	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	30	0	32	146	39	17	1	0%	1.1	19.8%	13.7%	6.0%	1.0%	2.53	3.72	—
2023	23	A MLE	Modesto Nuts	30	0	32	146	39	17	1	0%	1.1	19.8%	13.7%	6.0%	1.0%	2.53	3.72	—
2023	23	A RAW	Modesto Nuts	30	0	32	146	39	17	1	0%	1.1	26.7%	11.6%	15.1%	0.7%	2.53	2.66	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	38	3	61	258	70	23	5	8%	1.6	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	2.1%	3.38	3.77	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Everett AquaSox	38	3	61	258	70	23	5	8%	1.6	20.9%	10.3%	10.6%	2.1%	3.38	3.77	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Everett AquaSox	38	3	61	258	70	23	5	8%	1.6	27.1%	8.9%	18.2%	1.9%	3.38	3.00	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	49	208	48	19	3	0%	1.2	22.1%	8.6%	13.4%	2.1%	2.96	3.50	+0.6
2025	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	49	208	48	19	3	0%	1.2	22.1%	8.6%	13.4%	2.1%	2.96	3.50	+0.6
2025	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	49	208	48	19	3	0%	1.2	23.1%	9.1%	13.9%	1.4%	2.96	3.10	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			17	0	18	82	14	7	2	0%	1.0	17.1%	8.5%	8.5%	2.4%	5.09	4.18	+0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	48	0	51	234	41	24	7	0%	1.1	15.7%	10.0%	5.7%	3.5%	6.71	4.98	—
YTD	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	48	0	51	234	41	24	7	0%	1.1	15.7%	10.0%	5.7%	3.5%	6.71	4.98	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AAA RAW	ARI	44	0	47	217	41	24	7	0%	1.1	18.9%	11.1%	7.8%	3.2%	7.14	4.68	—
2026	26	MLB RAW	ARI	4	0	4	17	0	0	0	0%	1.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.08	3.10	—
SO FAR	26	MLB RAW	ARI	4	0	4	17	0	0	0	0%	1.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	2.08	3.10	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	ARI	2	0	2	10	2	1	0	0%	1.2	21.6%	9.7%	11.9%	2.8%	4.38	4.41	+0.0
ROS	26	MLB CTX	ARI	2	0	2	8	2	1	0	0%	1.0	21.6%	9.7%	11.9%	2.8%	4.38	4.41	+0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	ARI	—	—	53	244	43	25	7	—	—	17.7%	10.2%	7.5%	3.0%	6.60	4.96	-0.2
FULL	26	MLB A+C	ARI	—	—	7	28	43	25	7	—	—	153.3%	88.7%	64.6%	25.9%	52.87	15.58	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	ARI	52	0	54	230	50	22	7	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	2.9%	4.41	4.44	+0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	ARI	50	0	53	223	49	22	7	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	3.0%	4.47	4.52	+0.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	ARI	50	0	52	220	48	21	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.7%	12.1%	2.9%	4.41	4.44	+0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	ARI	48	0	50	211	46	21	6	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.8%	12.0%	3.0%	4.47	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		116	0	122	522	110	50	15	0%	1.1	21.0%	9.6%	11.5%	2.8%	4.53	4.09	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	857	181	82	25	0%	1.0	21.0%	9.6%	11.5%	2.8%	4.53	4.09	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		215	10	295	1296	241	158	27	5%	1.4	18.6%	12.2%	6.4%	2.1%	3.72	4.20	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		146	7	200	879	163	107	18	5%	1.4	18.6%	12.2%	6.4%	2.1%	3.72	4.20	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Burgos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	21.6%	9.7%	2.8%	—	4.48	21.8%	12.0%	107	+0.07	—	—	—
Jason Stoffel R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	26	SU	3.61	23.4%	10.1%	2.2%	.267	3.49	27.2%	19.2%	59	-0.12	3.49	103	85
Kaleb Bowman R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	26	SU	3.88	22.0%	7.5%	3.1%	.333	4.55	17.5%	6.5%	168	+0.67	3.88	202	85
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Kyle Winkler R 2016 · 3.70 FIP	26	SU	3.70	23.1%	8.7%	2.6%	.234	3.53	18.4%	8.3%	43	-0.17	2.97	114	83
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	83
Jesus Pirela R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	26	SU	3.84	23.7%	11.6%	2.3%	.305	3.92	17.1%	13.9%	45	+0.08	3.24	161	83
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	82
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	82
Matt Ramsey R 2017 · 3.25 FIP	27	SU	3.25	24.2%	9.6%	1.8%	.330	3.21	23.6%	14.6%	81	-0.04	2.42	125	82
Jhan Mariñez R 2015 · 3.50 FIP	26	SU	3.50	23.1%	9.3%	2.1%	.244	3.70	18.9%	11.1%	168	+0.20	3.16	253	82
Rob Scahill R 2015 · 3.91 FIP	28	SU	3.91	16.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.288	3.34	17.9%	10.1%	171	-0.57	3.06	201	81
Shawn Armstrong R 2017 · 4.21 FIP	26	SU	4.21	22.1%	9.2%	3.3%	.282	3.18	26.9%	17.2%	144	-1.03	1.79	651	80
Brandon Cunniff R 2015 · 4.28 FIP	26	SU	4.28	24.5%	13.2%	2.9%	.256	4.32	20.3%	9.0%	115	+0.04	3.89	180	80
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	80
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	80
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	80
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	80
Jackson Hicks R 2023 · 3.90 FIP	25	SU	3.90	22.6%	10.5%	2.5%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	2.17	116	80
Juan Ramon Noriega R 2017 · 4.45 FIP	26	SU	4.45	21.3%	8.3%	3.8%	.243	3.44	24.8%	17.1%	57	-1.01	3.44	198	80
Austin Adams R 2015 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	18.6%	9.5%	1.4%	.331	3.40	21.1%	15.0%	56	-0.11	3.40	162	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	44	21.8%	9.8%	1.12	4.43
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64