Aidan Foeller

P Great Lakes Loons

Age 25 RHP 6'3" / 220 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2028

Overview

A+PROSPECTFG #993MiLBFA 2035

Scout OFP40ETA2028FG ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	22	ALAA	2	0	3	0.00	2.43	36.4%	18.2%	—	K 36.4% · BB 18.2% · FIP 2.33
2025	23	MIX2 levels	26	22	99	4.65	3.59	30.6%	16.3%	—	K 22.7% · BB 19.1% · FIP 4.80
2026	24	MIX2 levels	21	17	83	2.81	3.29	28.4%	9.4%	—	K 22.2% · BB 10.6% · FIP 4.30
2027PROJ	25	MLBLAD	12	12	70	5.03	5.03	22.7%	14.7%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBLAD	6	6	38	5.01	5.00	22.8%	14.0%	-0.0
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBLAD	9	9	55	4.97	4.98	22.8%	13.6%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2034Service0.0First FA2035

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Arb-1$0.8M2033Ext$5M2034Ext$7M

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff45Control45Command40FB velo70

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 4, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 83%

CompsLuis Quiñones (age 25) · David Lebron (age 25) · Andrew Politi (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 112

ERA5.03

FIP5.03

K%22.7%

BB%14.7%

K-BB%7.9%

Proj IP70

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4045

CTRL—45

CMD3040

K†5555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.6M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	2	0	3	11	4	2	0	0%	1.5	36.4%	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	2.33	—
2024	22	A MLE	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	2	0	3	11	4	2	0	0%	1.5	36.4%	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	2.33	—
2024	22	A RAW	Rancho Cucamonga Quakes	2	0	3	11	4	2	0	0%	1.5	36.4%	18.2%	18.2%	0.0%	0.00	2.43	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	99	454	139	74	8	85%	3.8	22.7%	19.1%	3.6%	2.2%	4.65	4.80	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	22	99	454	139	74	8	85%	3.8	22.7%	19.1%	3.6%	2.2%	4.65	4.80	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	22	99	454	139	74	8	85%	3.8	30.6%	16.3%	14.3%	1.8%	4.65	3.59	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	17	83	352	100	33	9	81%	4.0	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	3.2%	2.81	4.30	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	17	83	352	100	33	9	81%	4.0	22.2%	10.6%	11.6%	3.2%	2.81	4.30	—
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	17	83	352	100	33	9	81%	4.0	28.4%	9.4%	19.0%	2.6%	2.81	3.29	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	LAD	12	12	70	296	67	44	9	100%	5.8	22.7%	14.7%	7.9%	2.9%	5.03	5.03	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	89	375	86	52	11	100%	5.9	22.8%	14.0%	8.8%	2.9%	4.94	4.93	-0.0
2029	27	MLB MLE	LAD	15	15	88	369	84	50	11	100%	5.8	22.8%	13.6%	9.2%	3.0%	4.90	4.91	-0.0
2030	28	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	85	358	81	48	11	100%	6.1	22.6%	13.5%	9.1%	3.1%	4.93	4.96	-0.1
2031	29	MLB MLE	LAD	14	14	81	342	76	46	11	100%	5.8	22.3%	13.5%	8.8%	3.2%	5.01	5.08	-0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	LAD	13	13	76	322	77	42	11	100%	5.9	24.0%	13.0%	11.0%	3.4%	4.99	4.98	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	LAD	6	6	38	160	37	22	5	100%	6.3	22.8%	14.0%	8.8%	3.0%	5.01	5.00	-0.0
2029	27	MLB CTX	LAD	9	9	55	232	53	32	7	100%	6.1	22.8%	13.6%	9.2%	3.1%	4.97	4.98	-0.0
2030	28	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	64	270	61	36	9	100%	5.8	22.6%	13.5%	9.1%	3.2%	5.00	5.03	-0.0
2031	29	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	66	279	62	38	9	100%	6.0	22.3%	13.5%	8.8%	3.4%	5.09	5.16	-0.1
2032	30	MLB CTX	LAD	11	11	65	274	66	36	10	100%	5.9	24.0%	13.0%	11.0%	3.6%	5.07	5.06	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		48	48	288	1218	279	164	40	100%	6.0	22.9%	13.5%	9.4%	3.3%	5.03	4.67	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	193	114	28	100%	6.0	22.9%	13.5%	9.4%	3.3%	5.03	4.67	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		49	39	185	817	185	126	21	80%	3.8	22.7%	15.4%	7.3%	2.6%	3.75	4.55	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	42	200	883	200	136	23	80%	3.8	22.7%	15.4%	7.3%	2.6%	3.75	4.55	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aidan Foeller (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.03	22.7%	14.7%	2.9%	—	4.93	22.7%	9.0%	261	-0.10	—	—	—
Luis Quiñones R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP	4.77	23.5%	17.5%	2.6%	.289	4.80	22.4%	10.8%	160	+0.03	3.69	326	88
David Lebron R 2019 · 4.28 FIP	25	SP-	4.28	18.6%	14.2%	1.7%	.336	5.56	26.7%	12.0%	62	+1.28	4.28	144	84
Andrew Politi R 2021 · 5.21 FIP	25	SP-	5.21	21.0%	12.2%	4.3%	.320	4.04	22.9%	13.8%	138	-1.17	3.38	292	82
Brett Daniels R 2021 · 4.67 FIP	25	SP-	4.67	22.3%	13.0%	3.3%	.357	4.69	18.9%	3.2%	77	+0.02	3.95	270	82
Zach Fruit R 2024 · 4.29 FIP	24	SP	4.29	19.3%	14.1%	1.9%	.258	5.03	15.4%	-0.2%	44	+0.74	4.29	151	81
J.P. France R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	24	SP-	5.32	17.9%	13.9%	3.6%	.285	4.24	26.3%	15.2%	225	-1.08	4.04	577	80
Cade Smith R 2024 · 3.86 FIP	22	SP	3.86	23.2%	13.3%	1.9%	.273	5.35	18.2%	6.6%	157	+1.49	3.86	243	80
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	79
Hayden Minton R 2024 · 4.04 FIP	23	SP	4.04	19.7%	12.3%	1.9%	.357	4.53	19.4%	10.3%	187	+0.49	4.04	280	79
Paxton Schultz R 2023 · 4.87 FIP	25	SP-	4.87	19.5%	11.9%	3.5%	.319	4.02	23.3%	14.9%	227	-0.85	3.83	543	78
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.27	22.8%	15.4%	121	+0.08	2.98	262	78
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	78
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	78
Connor Staine R 2024 · 4.80 FIP	23	SP	4.80	20.3%	12.6%	3.3%	.266	5.19	16.1%	3.4%	230	+0.39	3.86	414	78
Nolan DeVos R 2023 · 4.21 FIP	22	SP-	4.21	21.1%	14.0%	2.0%	.302	5.66	19.0%	8.3%	111	+1.45	4.21	210	78
Joel Hanrahan R 2007 · 5.58 FIP	25	SP	5.58	17.4%	15.4%	3.6%	.318	3.06	27.8%	18.1%	218	-2.52	2.08	397	78
Rorik Maltrud R 2024 · 3.91 FIP	24	SP-	3.91	20.4%	9.6%	2.4%	.300	4.40	18.6%	9.4%	193	+0.49	3.91	298	77
Derek True R 2024 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP-	4.90	18.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.333	4.95	17.6%	5.9%	73	+0.05	4.50	170	77
Will Sanders R 2024 · 4.95 FIP	22	SP	4.95	19.3%	11.8%	3.6%	.297	4.11	20.1%	12.5%	173	-0.84	3.92	266	77
Reid Johnston R 2023 · 5.00 FIP	24	SP-	5.00	19.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.256	5.86	17.2%	2.4%	31	+0.86	3.74	234	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	81	22.9%	13.7%	1.19	4.96
George Smith ('26-'30, -3 WAR*)	1.7	66	22.6%*	14.5%*	1.13*	5.29*
Bob Gibson ('83-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.3	67	20.4%*	14.0%*	1.14*	4.52*
David West ('88-'98, 1 WAR*)	2.8	71	22.1%*	12.1%*	1.28*	4.79*
Touki Toussaint ('25)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.24	5.42
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28