Ryan Cesarini — OGILVIE

Ryan CesariniOF Akron RubberDucks

Age 23 L/R 5'10" / 211 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION321 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†94

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP269

ISO115

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$19M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2033	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	54	46	13	4	4	0	7	10	0	3	1	283	377	543	921	261	351	19	13	389	149	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.5
2025	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	110	96	28	6	1	3	11	18	2	7	0	292	376	469	845	177	329	16	10	373	138	+5	+1	—	—	+2	0.9
2025	22	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	315	260	61	8	4	2	44	42	9	33	7	235	364	319	683	85	271	13	14	320	103	+1	+4	—	—	+7	1.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	54	49	10	3	3	0	4	14	0	3	1	204	264	388	652	184	311	26	7	312	97	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2025	22	A+ MLE	Lake County Captains	—	110	99	22	4	1	2	8	24	2	7	0	222	294	343	637	121	270	22	7	288	81	-2	+1	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	22	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	315	276	51	7	3	2	28	60	9	33	7	185	281	254	535	69	224	19	9	243	51	-19	+4	—	—	+7	-0.8
2024	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	54	49	10	3	3	0	4	14	0	3	1	204	264	388	652	184	278	26	7	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	54	46	13	4	4	0	7	10	0	3	1	283	377	543	921	261	351	19	13	389	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	425	375	74	11	4	4	36	84	11	40	7	197	287	280	567	83	241	20	8	255	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	425	356	89	14	5	5	55	60	11	40	7	250	367	360	727	110	286	14	13	333	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	54	50	10	3	3	0	4	14	0	3	1	200	264	380	644	180	311	26	7	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	425	375	74	11	4	4	36	84	11	40	7	197	287	280	567	83	236	20	8	255	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	54	50	10	3	3	0	4	14	0	3	1	200	264	380	644	180	311	26	7	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	425	375	74	11	4	4	36	84	11	40	7	197	287	280	567	83	236	20	8	255	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	CLE	—	321	292	72	14	0	16	22	69	2	21	1	247	304	459	763	212	265	21	7	323	105	+2	+4	+0	-2	+7	1.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ RAW	CLE	—	142	127	33	6	0	7	14	29	0	7	0	260	333	472	806	213	283	20	10	353	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA RAW	CLE	—	179	155	49	10	0	13	18	24	2	14	1	316	394	632	1.027	316	298	13	10	433	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	AA MLE	CLE	2%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		270	22	11	307	94	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
TOT	23	AA MLE	CLE	—	330	300	73	14	0	16	23	71	2	21	1	243	302	450	752	207	263	22	7	323	104	+2	+4	+0	-2	+7	1.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	CLE	39%	446	403	95	18	3	13	35	91	5	16	2	236	305	392	697	156	271	20	8	310	96	-2	+2	+0	-3	+10	0.7
2028	25	MLB MLE	CLE	56%	476	429	103	19	3	15	38	97	6	16	2	240	311	403	714	163	273	20	8	314	98	-1	+2	+0	-3	+10	0.9
2029	26	MLB MLE	CLE	64%	493	444	106	20	3	15	40	101	6	15	2	239	310	399	709	160	273	20	8	315	99	-0	+2	+0	-3	+11	1.0
2030	27	MLB MLE	CLE	66%	498	448	106	20	3	15	41	102	6	14	2	237	309	395	704	158	274	20	8	315	100	-0	+2	+0	-3	+11	1.0
2031	28	MLB MLE	CLE	67%	497	447	106	20	3	15	41	103	6	13	1	237	310	396	706	159	273	21	8	314	99	-1	+2	-1	-3	+11	0.9
2032	29	MLB MLE	CLE	66%	489	439	104	19	3	15	41	102	6	12	1	237	311	396	707	159	272	21	8	312	98	-1	+2	-1	-3	+11	0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	480	431	101	19	3	14	40	102	6	11	1	234	308	390	698	155	271	21	8	310	96	-2	+2	-2	-3	+10	0.5
2034	31	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	467	420	96	18	2	13	39	100	5	10	1	229	302	374	676	145	269	21	8	306	93	-4	+2	-3	-3	+10	0.2
2035	32	MLB MLE	CLE	65%	449	404	90	16	2	12	37	98	5	9	1	223	296	361	657	139	265	22	8	300	89	-6	+1	-4	-3	+10	-0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	CLE	39%	172	155	37	7	1	5	13	35	2	6	1	239	306	394	699	155	270	20	8	300	96	-1	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.3
2028	25	MLB CTX	CLE	56%	266	240	57	11	1	8	21	54	3	9	1	237	307	392	698	154	272	20	8	303	98	-1	+1	+0	-2	+6	0.5
2029	26	MLB CTX	CLE	64%	315	283	69	13	2	10	25	64	4	10	1	244	314	410	724	166	273	20	8	305	99	-0	+2	+0	-2	+7	0.6
2030	27	MLB CTX	CLE	66%	328	294	70	13	2	10	27	67	4	9	1	238	311	398	709	160	273	20	8	305	100	-0	+1	+0	-2	+7	0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	CLE	67%	332	297	71	13	2	10	28	69	4	9	1	239	313	397	710	158	272	21	8	304	99	-0	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.6
2032	29	MLB CTX	CLE	66%	322	288	68	13	1	10	27	67	4	8	1	236	310	392	703	156	272	21	8	303	98	-1	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.5
2033	30	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	313	280	65	12	1	9	26	66	4	7	1	232	306	379	685	146	270	21	8	300	96	-2	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.3
2034	31	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	303	272	63	12	1	9	25	65	3	6	1	232	303	382	686	151	268	21	8	296	93	-3	+1	-2	-2	+7	0.1
2035	32	MLB CTX	CLE	65%	290	261	59	11	1	8	24	63	3	6	1	226	299	368	666	142	265	22	8	291	89	-4	+1	-2	-2	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2641	2370	559	105	12	79	216	550	31	70	9	236	308	390	698	154	273	21	8	301	93	-11	+10	-7	-16	+57	3.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	137	26	3	19	53	135	8	17	2	235	307	388	695	153	273	21	8	301	93	-3	+3	-2	-4	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	4783	4297	992	183	32	131	393	996	62	159	21	231	305	380	684	149	270	21	8	306	93	-18	+18	-10	-26	+93	5.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	135	25	4	18	53	135	8	22	3	231	303	380	684	149	270	21	8	306	93	-3	+3	-2	-4	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Manuel Margotlast yr '24 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,154 PA	4.8	3,154	56	94	254	307	380	-5	+27	8.4	8.8
/162	664	12	20	-1.1	+5.6	1.8	pk7: 9
#2Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	3.5	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
/162	664	16	27	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.0	2,646	79	71	236	305	392	-16	+0	5.5	5.2
/162	664	20	18	-4.0	+0.0	1.4	pk7: 5
#4Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#5Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Cesarini (OGILVIE)	23	45	25	60	55	232/300/383	151	270	9	16	21%	8%	94	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nicky Lopez 2017 · A	22	47→57	42→40	57→55	51	229/304/337	108	264	10	17	17%	8%	84	+0.1	252/304/335	83	284	5	13	13%	6%	82	-0.0	264/325/345	82	303	4	14	13%	8%	90	+0.4
✕Kyle Mottice 2019 · A	23	50	35→30	58→55	54	229/334/291	63	272	2	18	15%	9%	86	+0.3	232/327/292	60	284	2	18	17%	8%	83	+0.1	241/335/285	43	296	0	25	16%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Leon Johnson 2008 · A	23	49	40	58→60	50	229/302/326	97	301	6	22	24%	9%	80	-0.2	218/282/296	78	282	5	17	23%	7%	65	-1.2	200/262/221	21	248	0	22	18%	6%	38	-0.7
✕Caleb Durbin 2023 · A	23	46→52	41→45	56→60	50	221/295/323	102	249	8	21	15%	7%	78	-0.3	243/317/357	114	265	9	31	12%	7%	93	+0.8	243/323/371	128	260	12	25	12%	7%	96	+0.9
✕Ryan Rogowski 2007 · A	23	49→46	40	59→55	52	231/303/334	103	280	6	19	19%	9%	82	-0.0	219/288/308	89	273	4	26	20%	8%	70	-0.8	214/286/299	85	266	4	31	19%	8%	65	-1.0
✕Brett Nommensen 2011 · A	24	46	43→40	55	49	225/294/340	114	268	11	21	20%	8%	80	-0.1	238/313/336	98	293	7	16	20%	8%	86	+0.3	243/325/333	89	301	5	16	19%	8%	90	+0.3
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	49→59	38→30	56→70	48	228/294/313	86	300	4	17	24%	8%	74	-0.5	270/314/320	50	311	1	59	13%	6%	82	-0.0	303/337/348	46	336	0	63	10%	5%	93	+0.8
✕Alden Carrithers 2009 · A	24	50→60	39→30	56→55	54	236/326/326	90	294	6	18	20%	10%	90	+0.6	260/333/324	64	313	2	15	16%	9%	91	+0.6	278/352/333	55	322	1	17	12%	10%	97	+0.7
✕Austin Martin 2023 · AA	24	49→52	38→40	57→60	51	227/326/306	79	286	5	25	20%	9%	86	+0.3	239/325/324	85	293	6	24	19%	9%	88	+0.5	257/354/339	82	314	4	22	17%	11%	101	+0.8
✕Thomas Coyle 2014 · A	23	50→51	40	58→55	53	236/312/337	102	294	6	21	21%	10%	86	+0.3	211/280/303	92	293	6	20	28%	8%	66	-1.1	195/263/281	86	277	6	22	30%	8%	53	-1.3
●Sal Frelick 2022 · A	22	52→60	40	56→55	48	248/308/348	100	311	7	17	22%	8%	87	+0.4	262/323/367	105	305	7	19	16%	7%	97	+1.1	262/330/356	94	300	7	20	14%	8%	95	+0.8
✕Cesar Diaz 2016 · A	23	51	39→40	58→50	57	239/316/336	97	268	4	23	12%	10%	87	+0.4	221/285/308	87	268	6	15	18%	8%	70	-0.9	216/275/293	77	258	6	15	18%	7%	59	-0.7
✕Alan Roden 2023 · A	23	47→56	41→45	51→50	51	223/310/319	97	268	8	12	19%	9%	82	+0.0	253/329/370	117	296	10	14	17%	8%	101	+1.4	256/333/376	120	298	10	14	17%	8%	100	+1.0
✕Hoy Park 2019 · A	23	46→49	39→45	55	51	217/298/301	85	285	6	17	25%	9%	74	-0.6	228/306/324	96	300	7	16	24%	9%	81	-0.1	215/302/326	111	288	12	18	27%	10%	79	-0.2
✕Michael Gigliotti 2019 · A	23	51	42→40	51→55	51	242/314/349	107	303	8	16	22%	9%	90	+0.6	224/290/312	88	307	5	21	27%	7%	73	-0.6	191/301/300	110	261	10	24	28%	11%	74	-0.2
✕Logan Watkins 2013 · AA	23	51→53	40	57→55	48	241/307/340	99	311	6	17	23%	8%	84	+0.2	218/275/312	94	291	7	18	26%	7%	67	-1.1	222/279/293	70	285	3	17	22%	6%	61	-0.7
✕Joshua Howard 2006 · A	23	51	36→40	57→60	44	236/288/314	77	305	2	18	22%	6%	71	-0.8	226/300/291	65	315	3	20	26%	9%	71	-0.8	219/301/270	50	309	2	23	27%	10%	64	-0.6
✕Corey Rosier 2023 · A	23	47→52	42→40	62→60	49	227/302/337	110	300	8	28	26%	9%	82	+0.0	216/278/313	97	290	7	33	26%	7%	68	-1.0	208/271/300	92	276	7	36	26%	7%	60	-1.0
✕Andrew Aplin 2014 · A	23	45→55	42→40	52→55	53	219/287/329	110	250	9	14	16%	8%	75	-0.5	231/302/312	81	282	6	22	18%	9%	77	-0.3	227/300/295	68	284	4	27	20%	9%	70	-0.7
✕Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→48	43→45	58→60	54	211/315/327	116	289	9	21	28%	12%	86	+0.3	215/313/338	123	273	13	33	24%	11%	88	+0.5	211/310/338	127	264	13	40	24%	11%	84	+0.2

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps