Ryan Cesarini

OF Akron RubberDucks
Age 24 L/R 5'10" / 211 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
OGV OFP35OGV rank#701ETA2029MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421ALynchburg Hil…54.283/.377/.54303110—.229/.302/.458
202522A+/A2 orgs425.250/.367/.36054059—.193/.289/.268
202623AA/A+CLE326.291/.369/.5582021109—.252/.310/.459
2027PROJMLE24MLBCLE4.247/.313/.419001050.0
2028PROJ28% MLB25MLBCLE66.248/.314/.421221060.2
2029PROJ44% MLB26MLBCLE124.247/.315/.420441060.3
Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$1M2034Arb-2$0.7M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
wRC+97
ISO96
K%96
wOBA95
Chase%89
Z-Con%88
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.3 / P90 4.3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 87%
CompsJosh Smith (age 24) · Daulton Varsho (age 24) · Dustin Harris (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†105
AVG/OBP/SLG.247 / .313 / .419
PA4
HR0
K%25
BB%8
BABIP279
ISO171
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: +1.2 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)+1BATRUN: +1.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.1 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -1.2 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +4.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: +0.70+0.7WAR
0.00.51.00.00.20.30.40.40.30.10.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.4$1M+$0.7M
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.6M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.3$0.8M+$0.3M
2033Arb-1$1M+0.1$0.3M+$0.0M (cut)
2034Arb-2$0.7M———
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $4M +$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202421 ALynchburg Hillcats — 5446 13440 7100 31 283377543921 261351 1913 389 110 — — — — — —
202522 A+Lake County Captains — 11096 28613 11182 70 292376469845 177329 1610 373 83 — — — — — —
202522 ALynchburg Hillcats — 315260 61842 44429 337 235364319683 85271 1314 320 51 — — — — — —
202623 AAAkron RubberDucks — 184158 5010013 19252 142 3163976271.023 310298 1410 430 140 — — — — — —
202623 A+Lake County Captains — 142127 33607 14290 70 260333472806 213283 2010 353 68 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202421 A MLELynchburg Hillcats — 5448 11340 5140 31 229302458760 229322 269 331 110 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLELake County Captains — 11099 23412 8222 70 232303354656 121270 207 291 83 — — — — — —
202522 A MLELynchburg Hillcats — 315273 49731 31589 337 179284238522 59220 1810 244 51 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLEAkron RubberDucks — 184164 489011 13312 142 293352549901 256279 177 375 140 — — — — — —
202623 A+ MLELake County Captains — 142131 26405 10370 70 198255344599 145234 267 269 68 — — — — — —
202421 A MLELynchburg Hillcats — 5448 11340 5140 31 229302458760 229314 269 331 110 — — — — — —
202421 A RAWLynchburg Hillcats — 5446 13440 7100 31 283377543921 261351 1913 389 110 — — — — — —
202522 A MLE2 teams — 425372 731144 398011 407 196291280571 83237 199 256 60 — — — — — —
202522 A RAW2 teams — 425356 891455 556011 407 250367360727 110286 1413 333 60 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 326295 7414016 23672 212 251309461770 210267 217 329 109 — — — — — —
202623 AA RAW2 teams — 326285 8316020 33542 212 291369558927 267292 1710 396 109 — — — — — —
202421 A MLELynchburg Hillcats — 5449 11340 5140 31 224302449751 224322 269 331 110 — — — — — —
202522 A MLE2 teams — 425372 731144 398011 407 196291280571 83233 199 256 60 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 326298 7414016 23672 212 248309456766 208259 217 329 109 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A MLELynchburg Hillcats — 5449 11340 5140 31 224302449751 224322 269 331 110 — — — — — —
202522 A MLE2 teams — 425372 731144 398011 407 196291280571 83233 199 256 60 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLE2 teams — 326298 7414016 23672 212 248309456766 208259 217 329 109 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLECLE 2% 376340 8415213 29764 142 247313420733 173278 208 324 105 +2 +2 -0 -2 +8 0.7
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXCLE 2% 44 1000 010 00 247313419732 172279 250 323 105 +0 +0 -0 -0 +0 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLECLE 28% 233211 521018 18472 81 248314422736 174279 208 325 106 +2 +1 -0 -1 +5 0.7
202926 MLB MLECLE 44% 283256 6312110 22583 91 247314421735 173280 208 325 106 +2 +1 -0 -2 +6 0.8
203027 MLB MLECLE 50% 305275 6813111 24633 91 246314417731 171280 218 323 105 +2 +1 -0 -2 +7 0.8
203128 MLB MLECLE 55% 317286 7013111 25663 81 244312412724 168279 218 321 103 +1 +1 -1 -2 +7 0.7
203229 MLB MLECLE 56% 315284 6813110 25673 71 242310406715 164278 218 317 101 +0 +1 -2 -2 +7 0.5
203330 MLB MLECLE 56% 309279 6612110 24673 71 239306398704 159277 228 312 98 -1 +1 -2 -2 +7 0.3
203431 MLB MLECLE 57% 295268 621119 23652 51 234301388689 153273 228 306 93 -2 +1 -3 -2 +6 -0.0
202825 MLB CTXCLE 28% 6660 14302 5131 20 248314421735 173280 208 325 106 +0 +0 -0 -0 +1 0.2
202926 MLB CTXCLE 44% 124112 28514 10251 41 247315420734 172280 208 325 106 +1 +0 -0 -1 +3 0.3
203027 MLB CTXCLE 50% 154140 34615 12321 51 246314416730 170280 218 323 105 +1 +1 -0 -1 +3 0.4
203128 MLB CTXCLE 55% 173155 39716 14362 51 245312411724 167280 218 321 103 +1 +1 -0 -1 +4 0.4
203229 MLB CTXCLE 56% 175157 39716 14372 41 242310405715 163279 218 317 101 +0 +0 -1 -1 +4 0.3
203330 MLB CTXCLE 56% 174156 38716 14372 41 239306397703 158277 218 312 98 -1 +0 -1 -1 +4 0.1
203431 MLB CTXCLE 57% 167151 36715 13371 30 235301387689 153274 228 306 93 -1 +1 -2 -1 +4 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 1033931 22842634 8221710 275 245313412725 168283 218 317 97 +1 +3 -4 -6 +22 1.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650586 14326421 521376 173 244313410722 166282 218 317 97 +1 +2 -3 -4 +14 1.1
Career— MLE — 30622755 6511201696 24363434 12418 236306396702 160271 218 311 97 +5 +9 -8 -14 +49 4.2
/ 162G— MLE — 650585 13725320 521357 264 234304390694 156270 218 311 97 +1 +3 -2 -4 +14 1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAkron RubberDucks · 184 PAwOBA .427 → .375 (−52)K% 13.6% → 16.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.59%÷1.000×1.220——16.58%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.33%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0127.32%
HBP% /PA1.09%—×0.850—×1.0120.93%
Singles /BIP20.30%÷1.000×0.970×1.002×1.01219.96%
Doubles /BIP7.52%÷1.000×0.860×1.002×1.0126.56%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.950×1.002×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP9.77%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0127.72%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .427 → .375; ISO .310 → .260; BABIP .298 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Lake County Captains · 142 PAwOBA .346 → .269 (−77)K% 20.4% → 25.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.42%÷1.000×1.270——25.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.86%÷1.000×0.710—×0.9886.92%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.790—×0.9880.00%
Singles /BIP20.41%÷1.000×0.920×0.950×0.98817.62%
Doubles /BIP6.12%÷1.000×0.810×0.950×0.9884.65%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850×0.950×0.9880.00%
Home runs /BIP7.14%÷1.000×0.800—×0.9885.65%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .346 → .269; ISO .213 → .162; BABIP .283 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALynchburg Hillcats · 315 PAwOBA .315 → .244 (−70)K% 13.3% → 18.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA13.33%÷0.989×1.360——18.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA13.97%÷0.975×0.690—×0.9909.79%
HBP% /PA2.86%—×0.780—×0.9902.21%
Singles /BIP21.56%÷1.071×0.920×0.950×0.99017.41%
Doubles /BIP3.67%÷0.921×0.830×0.950×0.9903.11%
Triples /BIP1.83%÷1.020×0.910×0.950×0.9901.54%
Home runs /BIP0.92%÷1.184×0.800—×0.9900.61%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 114, 2B 84, 3B 104, K 98, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .315 → .244; ISO .085 → .068; BABIP .271 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Lake County Captains · 110 PAwOBA .366 → .291 (−76)K% 16.4% → 20.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.36%÷1.020×1.270——20.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.00%÷0.991×0.710—×0.9987.15%
HBP% /PA1.82%—×0.790—×0.9981.43%
Singles /BIP23.08%÷1.031×0.920×0.977×0.99820.08%
Doubles /BIP7.69%÷1.138×0.810×0.977×0.9985.34%
Triples /BIP1.28%÷0.952×0.850×0.977×0.9981.12%
Home runs /BIP3.85%÷1.011×0.800—×0.9983.04%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 90, K 104, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.

Result: wOBA .366 → .291; ISO .177 → .136; BABIP .329 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ALynchburg Hillcats · 54 PAwOBA .387 → .331 (−55)K% 18.5% → 25.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.52%÷0.985×1.360——25.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.96%÷1.041×0.690——8.59%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.780——0.00%
Singles /BIP13.89%÷1.056×0.920——12.10%
Doubles /BIP11.11%÷0.941×0.830——9.80%
Triples /BIP11.11%÷0.906×0.910——11.16%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.844×0.800——0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 111, 2B 88, 3B 81, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .387 → .331; ISO .261 → .248; BABIP .351 → .322. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).