Ryan Cesarini — OGILVIE

Ryan CesariniOF Lake County Captains

Age 23 L/R 5'10" / 211 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION142 act + 178 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .278 / .312

PA178

HR3

SB6

K%25

BB%8

BABIP265

ISO106

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT45

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	54	49	12	4	4	0	4	15	0	3	1	245	302	490	792	245	343	28	7	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	54	46	13	4	4	0	7	10	0	3	1	283	377	543	921	261	351	19	13	389	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	2 teams	—	425	374	70	11	4	4	37	84	11	40	7	187	280	270	550	83	228	20	9	249	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A	2 teams	—	425	356	89	14	5	5	55	60	11	40	7	250	367	360	727	110	286	14	13	333	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A+	CLE	—	142	131	26	4	0	6	10	39	0	7	0	198	255	366	622	168	230	27	7	269	64	-6	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
YTD	23	A+	CLE	—	142	127	33	6	0	7	14	29	0	7	0	260	333	472	806	213	283	20	10	353	128	+5	+1	+0	-1	+4	0.9
ROS	23	A+	CLE	0%	178	160	33	6	1	3	14	45	2	6	1	206	278	312	591	106	266	25	8	273	67	-7	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.2
ROS	23	MLB	CLE	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						267	0	0	265	61	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	A+	CLE	—	143	132	26	4	0	6	10	39	0	7	0	197	254	364	617	167	227	27	7	269	64	-6	+1	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
TOT	23	A+	CLE	—	320	291	59	10	1	9	24	84	2	13	1	203	268	337	605	134	250	26	8	271	66	-12	+2	+0	-2	+9	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	CLE	30%	437	393	84	16	2	9	36	108	5	12	2	214	288	333	621	120	273	25	8	283	75	-13	+2	+0	-3	+12	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	CLE	44%	470	423	93	18	3	10	39	115	5	12	2	220	293	348	641	128	274	24	8	288	78	-12	+2	+0	-3	+13	0.1
2029	26	MLB	CLE	51%	489	439	98	19	3	11	41	119	6	13	2	223	298	355	654	132	275	24	8	290	80	-11	+2	+0	-3	+14	0.2
2030	27	MLB	CLE	52%	496	445	99	19	3	11	42	121	6	13	2	222	298	353	651	130	275	24	8	291	81	-11	+2	+0	-3	+14	0.2
2031	28	MLB	CLE	53%	496	445	98	19	3	11	42	121	6	12	2	220	296	351	647	130	275	24	8	290	80	-11	+2	-1	-3	+14	0.1
2027	24	MLB	CLE	30%	132	119	26	5	1	3	11	33	1	4	1	218	290	353	643	134	273	25	8	275	68	-5	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	CLE	44%	208	187	41	8	1	4	17	51	2	6	1	219	291	337	628	118	275	25	8	279	72	-7	+1	+0	-1	+6	-0.1
2029	26	MLB	CLE	51%	248	222	48	9	1	5	21	60	3	6	1	216	293	333	626	117	276	24	8	282	74	-7	+1	+0	-1	+7	-0.1
2030	27	MLB	CLE	52%	260	233	51	10	1	6	22	63	3	7	1	219	295	348	642	129	276	24	8	283	75	-7	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.1
2031	28	MLB	CLE	53%	264	236	52	10	1	6	23	65	3	6	1	220	298	347	645	127	275	25	9	282	74	-8	+1	-0	-2	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1113	998	218	42	5	24	94	272	12	29	5	218	293	343	636	124	274	24	8	281	73	-34	+4	-0	-7	+32	-0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	583	128	25	3	14	55	159	7	17	3	220	295	345	639	125	276	24	8	281	73	-20	+2	-0	-4	+18	-0.3
Career	—			—	3045	2728	587	112	23	59	255	728	41	111	19	215	292	338	630	123	270	24	8	283	75	-88	+15	-1	-18	+86	-0.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	582	126	24	5	13	54	155	9	24	4	216	293	342	634	125	271	24	8	283	75	-19	+3	-0	-4	+18	-0.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	54	46	13	4	4	0	7	10	0	3	1	283	377	543	921	261	351	19	13	389	156	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2025	22	A+	Lake County Captains	—	110	96	28	6	1	3	11	18	2	7	0	292	376	469	845	177	329	16	10	373	143	+5	+1	—	—	+3	1.0
2025	22	A	Lynchburg Hillcats	—	315	260	61	8	4	2	44	42	9	33	7	235	364	319	683	85	271	13	14	320	103	+1	+4	—	—	+9	1.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Desi Relafordlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,443 PA	6	2,443	34	64	246	329	356	-1	-7	5.1	5.1
	/162	664	9	17	246	329	356	-0.3	-1.8	1.4	pk7: 5
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
	/162	664	20	20	241	309	409	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	1,115	24	29	221	292	348	-7	+0	0.3	0.3
	/162	664	14	17	221	292	348	-4.0	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Cesarini (OGILVIE)	23	45	25	60	55	203/268/337	134	250	9	13	26%	8%	66	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Leon Johnson 2008 · A	23	49	40	58→60	50	229/302/326	97	301	6	22	24%	9%	77	+0.1	218/282/296	78	282	5	17	23%	7%	61	-1.0	200/262/221	21	248	0	22	18%	6%	30	-0.7
✕Hoy Park 2019 · A	23	46→49	39→45	55	50	218/298/304	86	288	6	17	25%	9%	71	-0.3	227/304/324	97	304	7	16	25%	9%	78	+0.2	217/301/336	119	289	13	18	28%	10%	77	+0.1
✕Matt Rudick 2022 · A	24	45→44	39→45	56→50	49	215/284/308	92	270	6	11	22%	8%	66	-0.6	212/297/327	115	264	10	14	22%	9%	77	+0.1	206/302/338	132	254	15	16	24%	10%	78	+0.1
✕Ryan Rogowski 2007 · A	23	49→46	40	59→55	52	231/303/334	103	280	6	19	19%	9%	79	+0.3	219/288/309	90	274	4	26	20%	8%	67	-0.5	214/285/300	86	266	4	31	20%	8%	61	-0.8
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	49→59	38→30	56→70	49	228/296/314	87	301	4	17	24%	8%	72	-0.2	265/309/316	51	306	1	59	13%	6%	76	+0.0	299/334/350	51	335	0	65	10%	5%	92	+0.9
✕Kyle Mottice 2019 · A	23	50	35→30	58→55	54	229/334/291	63	272	2	18	15%	9%	85	+0.7	227/322/287	60	279	2	18	18%	8%	78	+0.2	232/325/276	44	287	0	25	17%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Saige Jenco 2018 · A	23	48	40	54→50	46	224/291/324	100	310	5	15	28%	8%	72	-0.2	210/280/292	82	319	5	12	32%	9%	59	-1.1	182/266/218	36	298	0	13	35%	10%	33	-1.0
✕Chris Pieters 2017 · A	22	48	39→45	54→55	49	226/307/315	88	296	6	17	24%	8%	77	+0.1	207/263/300	93	289	6	12	28%	6%	54	-1.4	195/251/293	97	271	6	13	28%	6%	45	-0.8
✕Nick Sinay 2017 · A	23	45	36→30	56→60	49	205/317/266	61	285	3	23	26%	9%	72	-0.2	205/319/264	59	293	3	20	29%	7%	72	-0.2	181/319/211	31	274	2	26	29%	7%	58	-0.6
✕Carlos Rodríguez 2023 · A	22	45→55	39→40	52→50	44	215/277/301	86	296	5	16	28%	7%	60	-1.0	254/306/336	82	309	4	15	18%	7%	80	+0.4	259/308/332	73	304	4	16	16%	6%	77	+0.1
✕James Ramsay 2015 · A	23	43→53	38→40	58→50	46	201/269/295	94	278	3	19	28%	8%	55	-1.4	223/281/321	98	288	7	11	24%	7%	67	-0.5	227/285/322	95	286	8	8	22%	7%	66	-0.5
✕Logan Watkins 2013 · AA	23	51→52	40	57→55	48	239/304/337	98	309	6	17	24%	8%	81	+0.4	214/270/306	92	286	7	18	26%	7%	59	-1.1	224/279/299	75	286	3	17	22%	6%	58	-0.6
✕Blake Rambusch 2023 · A	23	47	37→30	52→65	42	219/287/293	74	318	4	14	30%	7%	63	-0.9	230/317/295	65	313	3	29	25%	9%	76	+0.1	252/330/304	52	316	1	49	19%	9%	79	+0.1
✕Alvaro Ramirez 2009 · A	23	45	38→40	49→55	46	213/277/299	86	263	5	15	20%	6%	60	-1.0	238/293/315	77	287	5	16	18%	5%	70	-0.3	298/358/375	77	330	4	27	10%	5%	111	+1.0
✕Kier Meredith 2022 · A	22	42	36→30	51→60	45	198/268/265	67	279	4	12	29%	8%	47	-1.9	206/304/278	72	297	4	26	29%	9%	68	-0.5	217/333/268	51	299	3	35	25%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Thomas Coyle 2014 · A	23	49→50	40	58→55	51	232/303/331	99	293	6	21	22%	9%	79	+0.3	209/277/302	93	295	6	20	29%	8%	61	-1.0	192/262/280	88	279	6	22	31%	8%	46	-1.3
✕Julio Gonzalez 2018 · A	23	48	35→30	55→50	50	223/288/289	66	286	2	12	22%	8%	62	-0.9	206/269/275	69	268	2	8	22%	8%	50	-1.8	172/237/227	55	216	0	5	19%	7%	21	-1.0
✕Ramiro Rodriguez 2021 · AA	23	42	40	50	48	204/285/300	96	281	8	18	28%	9%	64	-0.8	200/261/296	96	312	9	11	36%	7%	53	-1.5	146/208/210	64	238	7	8	40%	6%	4	-1.2
✕Joshua Howard 2006 · A	23	51	36→40	57→60	44	236/288/314	77	305	2	18	22%	6%	67	-0.5	225/299/290	65	314	3	20	26%	9%	66	-0.6	218/300/268	50	309	2	23	27%	10%	59	-0.6
✕River Town 2022 · A	23	44→36	37→40	54→50	43	203/281/277	74	287	3	12	28%	7%	57	-1.2	205/290/306	101	264	9	15	24%	8%	69	-0.4	199/291/294	95	251	9	15	23%	9%	64	-0.4