Samuel Orellana

C DSL Blue Jays Red

Age 18 R/R ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2026	17	ROKDSL Blue Jays…	151	.325/.453/.425	0	13	75	—	.220/.331/.283
2027PROJ0% MLB	18	MLB—	261	.229/.304/.309	2	6	76	0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	19	MLB—	93	.233/.309/.322	1	2	81	0.2
2029PROJ61% MLB	20	MLB—	212	.236/.313/.334	2	5	85	0.5

Next 3 projected WAR 1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Whiff%97

K%96

Z-Con%87

wOBA81

Chase%79

wRC+78

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 96%

CompsAlirio Ferrebus (age 18) · Osleivis Basabe (age 18) · Michael Arroyo (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 126 proj PA

wRC+76

AVG/OBP/SLG.227 / .301 / .306

PA126

HR1

K%21

BB%8

ISO80

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$72M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.4	$7M	+$7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$7M	+$6M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$6M	+$6M
2036	Arb-1	$5M	+1.4	$6M	+$4M
2037	Arb-2	$7M	+1.2	$4M	+$2M
2038	Arb-3	$9M	+1.0	$3M	+$0.7M
Totals		$23M		$33M	+$25M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2026	17	ROK	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	151	120	39	12	0	0	23	14	5	13	3	325	453	425	878	100	358	9	15	394	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	151	127	28	8	0	0	16	17	5	13	3	220	331	283	615	63	240	11	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	151	127	28	8	0	0	16	17	5	13	3	220	331	283	615	63	248	11	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	151	120	39	12	0	0	23	14	5	13	3	325	453	425	878	100	358	9	15	394	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	151	129	28	8	0	0	16	17	5	13	3	217	331	279	610	62	240	11	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2026	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays Red	—	151	129	28	8	0	0	16	17	5	13	3	217	331	279	610	62	240	11	11	279	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	18	MLB MLE	—	0%	261	234	53	11	1	2	21	54	4	6	1	229	304	309	613	80	288	21	8	280	76	-7	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	19	MLB MLE	—	43%	215	192	44	9	1	2	18	44	3	5	1	233	309	322	631	89	290	20	8	288	81	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2029	20	MLB MLE	—	61%	349	311	73	15	2	4	29	72	6	9	2	236	313	334	647	98	292	21	8	294	85	-6	+1	+0	+6	+8	0.9
2030	21	MLB MLE	—	68%	450	401	96	20	2	6	38	92	8	11	3	239	316	344	660	105	293	20	8	299	89	-6	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.3
2031	22	MLB MLE	—	71%	520	462	112	23	3	8	44	106	9	13	3	241	318	353	671	112	294	20	8	303	92	-5	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.7
2032	23	MLB MLE	—	72%	520	462	113	23	3	9	44	107	9	13	3	243	320	360	680	117	295	21	8	307	94	-4	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.9
2033	24	MLB MLE	—	72%	520	462	113	23	3	9	44	106	9	13	3	244	321	364	685	120	295	20	8	309	95	-3	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.9
2034	25	MLB MLE	—	71%	520	462	113	23	3	9	44	106	9	13	3	245	322	367	688	122	296	20	8	310	96	-2	+1	+0	+9	+11	2.0
2035	26	MLB MLE	—	71%	520	463	114	23	3	10	44	106	8	13	3	245	322	368	690	124	295	20	8	311	97	-2	+1	+0	+9	+11	2.0
2036	27	MLB MLE	—	70%	520	463	113	23	3	9	44	107	8	13	3	244	321	366	687	122	295	21	8	309	95	-3	+1	+0	+9	+11	2.0
2037	28	MLB MLE	—	69%	520	463	113	23	3	9	44	108	8	12	3	242	319	361	680	119	294	21	8	307	94	-4	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.7
2038	29	MLB MLE	—	67%	520	463	110	22	2	9	44	110	8	12	4	239	316	354	670	115	292	21	8	303	91	-6	+1	-1	+9	+11	1.5
2039	30	MLB MLE	—	66%	520	463	109	22	2	8	44	111	8	12	4	236	312	346	659	110	291	21	8	298	88	-7	+1	-2	+9	+11	1.2
2040	31	MLB MLE	—	71%	504	450	104	21	2	7	42	110	7	11	5	232	307	336	644	105	287	22	8	292	84	-10	+0	-3	+9	+11	0.8
2041	32	MLB MLE	—	68%	489	439	99	20	2	6	40	109	7	10	6	226	301	324	624	98	283	22	8	284	78	-13	-0	-4	+9	+11	0.3
2042	33	MLB MLE	—	73%	473	426	94	18	2	6	38	108	6	9	8	219	293	308	602	89	278	23	8	275	72	-16	-1	-4	+8	+10	-0.3
2028	19	MLB CTX	—	43%	93	84	19	4	0	1	8	19	1	2	0	233	309	322	631	89	290	20	9	288	81	-2	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.2
2029	20	MLB CTX	—	61%	212	188	44	9	1	2	18	43	4	5	1	236	313	334	647	98	292	20	8	294	85	-4	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2030	21	MLB CTX	—	68%	307	273	65	13	2	4	26	63	5	8	2	239	316	344	660	105	293	21	8	299	89	-4	+1	+0	+5	+7	0.9
2031	22	MLB CTX	—	71%	370	330	80	16	2	6	31	76	6	9	2	241	318	353	671	112	294	21	8	303	92	-4	+1	+0	+7	+8	1.2
2032	23	MLB CTX	—	72%	376	335	81	17	2	6	32	77	6	9	2	243	320	360	680	117	295	20	9	307	94	-3	+1	+0	+7	+8	1.3
2033	24	MLB CTX	—	72%	372	331	80	16	2	6	32	76	6	9	2	244	321	364	685	120	295	20	9	309	95	-2	+1	+0	+7	+8	1.4
2034	25	MLB CTX	—	71%	370	330	81	16	2	7	31	76	6	9	2	245	322	367	688	122	296	21	8	310	96	-2	+1	+0	+7	+8	1.4
2035	26	MLB CTX	—	71%	369	329	80	16	2	7	31	75	6	9	2	245	322	368	690	124	295	20	8	311	97	-2	+1	+0	+7	+8	1.4
2036	27	MLB CTX	—	70%	362	322	79	16	2	7	31	75	6	9	2	244	321	366	687	122	295	21	9	309	95	-2	+1	+0	+6	+8	1.4
2037	28	MLB CTX	—	69%	358	319	78	16	2	6	30	75	6	8	2	242	319	361	680	119	294	21	8	307	94	-3	+1	-0	+6	+8	1.2
2038	29	MLB CTX	—	67%	348	311	75	15	2	6	29	73	5	8	2	239	316	354	670	115	292	21	8	303	91	-4	+1	-1	+6	+8	1.0
2039	30	MLB CTX	—	66%	342	305	71	14	1	5	29	73	5	8	3	236	312	346	659	110	291	21	8	298	88	-5	+0	-1	+6	+7	0.8
2040	31	MLB CTX	—	71%	357	319	73	15	1	5	30	78	5	8	3	232	307	336	644	105	287	22	8	292	84	-7	+0	-2	+6	+8	0.6
2041	32	MLB CTX	—	68%	333	298	66	13	1	4	27	74	5	7	4	226	301	324	624	98	283	22	8	284	78	-9	-0	-2	+6	+7	0.2
2042	33	MLB CTX	—	73%	343	308	67	13	1	4	27	78	5	7	6	219	293	308	602	89	278	23	8	275	72	-11	-1	-3	+6	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4912	4382	1039	209	23	76	412	1031	77	115	35	237	314	347	661	110	292	21	8	300	89	-62	+9	-10	+88	+106	13.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	138	28	3	10	55	136	10	15	5	238	315	348	663	110	292	21	8	300	89	-8	+1	-1	+12	+14	1.8
Career	—	MLE		—	7437	6622	1575	322	37	112	627	1545	120	185	57	238	315	348	663	111	292	21	8	299	89	-95	+13	-15	+130	+158	19.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	137	28	3	10	55	135	10	16	5	237	314	347	661	111	290	21	8	299	89	-8	+1	-1	+12	+14	1.7

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Roseboro'57-'70 * career totals — 14 seasons, 5,527 PA	8.3	5,527	104	67	247*	328*	393*	+97	-2	24.9	22.0
/162	664	12	8	+11.7	-0.2	3.0	pk7: 19
#2Ray Schalk'12-'29 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,217 PA	9.4	6,217	11	177	238*	322*	355*	+111	+0	22.1	19.8
/162	664	1	19	+11.9	+0.0	2.4	pk7: 18
#3Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	5.9	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
/162	664	24	9	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#4Al Lopez'28-'47 * career totals — 18 seasons, 6,607 PA	10.0	6,607	51	46	243*	314*	358*	+118	-1	21.3	17.4
/162	664	5	5	+11.8	-0.1	2.1	pk7: 14
#5Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#6John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 11 projected seasons	7.6	5,038	78	118	239	312	350	+90	+44	17.2	14.1
/162	664	10	16	+11.9	+5.8	2.3	pk7: 11

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Samuel Orellana (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	227/301/306	79	288	1	3	21%	8%	76	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Alirio Ferrebus 2024 · A	18	47	37→50	49→45	43	218/293/295	77	297	5	9	26%	6%	70	-0.8	229/288/340	111	275	11	6	20%	5%	78	-0.3	235/286/353	118	276	13	4	19%	4%	79	-0.1
✕Osleivis Basabe 2019 · A	18	47→57	36→45	49→50	50	218/277/294	76	258	2	12	16%	7%	63	-1.4	229/275/301	72	282	3	12	19%	5%	63	-1.4	276/322/383	106	335	4	17	18%	5%	96	+0.8
✕Michael Arroyo 2023 · A	18	45→51	39→50	44→50	49	210/310/300	90	269	6	7	22%	8%	79	-0.2	217/319/344	127	291	11	8	27%	9%	93	+0.8	232/324/382	150	294	16	12	25%	8%	100	+1.3
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Joendry Vargas 2024 · A	18	44→51	40→45	52→55	53	213/288/305	92	259	7	17	20%	9%	70	-0.8	215/273/324	109	300	9	18	30%	7%	69	-0.9	226/269/345	120	310	11	19	30%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Alexander Albertus 2023 · A	18	48	35→45	54→45	60	217/327/281	64	275	2	9	20%	13%	80	-0.1	229/324/321	92	284	8	10	20%	11%	88	+0.4	229/322/327	98	289	9	8	22%	11%	87	+0.1
●Eduardo Quintero 2024 · A	18	46→54	40→45	58→60	53	216/306/324	108	273	5	19	21%	10%	82	-0.0	225/320/342	117	312	9	25	28%	11%	91	+0.7	231/334/361	130	321	12	30	28%	12%	99	+1.0
✕José Mejía 2024 · A	18	47→45	37→40	52→50	50	220/299/296	76	279	4	16	21%	8%	72	-0.7	209/295/292	83	249	5	20	17%	9%	70	-0.8	206/298/295	89	251	6	19	19%	10%	70	-0.4
✕Tyler Rodriguez 2024 · A	18	41	38→40	49→55	55	196/307/275	79	247	6	14	22%	11%	73	-0.6	208/326/276	68	266	5	17	21%	11%	80	-0.1	203/334/262	59	262	5	20	21%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Cristofer Torin 2023 · A	18	47→55	35→40	53→50	61	215/316/281	66	255	2	19	15%	12%	76	-0.4	225/306/299	74	281	5	14	20%	10%	76	-0.4	243/315/341	98	290	8	10	18%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Miguel Rodríguez 2024 · A	18	48	35→40	45	58	218/327/282	64	261	2	10	16%	11%	82	-0.0	223/312/301	78	263	5	7	16%	9%	80	-0.2	228/321/301	73	263	6	6	15%	10%	81	-0.0
●Franklin Arias 2024 · A	18	48→58	37→50	46→50	52	223/290/295	72	258	3	6	15%	8%	68	-1.0	246/303/362	116	293	11	14	19%	7%	88	+0.5	260/316/394	134	300	15	13	18%	6%	99	+1.0
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Eguy Rosario 2017 · A	17	52→54	37→55	49→55	45	244/302/330	86	319	3	17	23%	6%	80	-0.1	210/263/304	94	299	6	15	30%	6%	60	-1.6	240/303/388	148	312	14	21	26%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Carlos Virahonda 2024 · A	18	43	38→55	44→45	42	202/279/289	86	248	3	7	19%	4%	64	-1.3	190/275/279	89	238	7	5	22%	6%	61	-1.5	195/286/306	111	240	12	4	23%	6%	69	-0.5
●Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	47→54	40→50	50→55	54	224/305/318	94	270	6	14	19%	10%	80	-0.2	233/325/328	95	314	7	17	25%	11%	90	+0.6	241/338/391	150	298	16	24	23%	12%	106	+1.5
✕Kevyn Castillo 2024 · A	19	49→46	38→50	54→55	53	227/310/317	91	295	4	19	23%	10%	81	-0.1	232/306/336	104	327	8	14	29%	9%	84	+0.1	232/311/351	119	315	11	14	28%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Ke'Bryan Hayes 2016 · A	19	51→57	35→50	51→50	48	237/305/292	56	305	2	9	22%	7%	73	-0.6	238/293/326	88	307	6	12	23%	6%	76	-0.4	255/311/393	138	311	13	16	21%	7%	99	+1.0
✕Alfredo Duno 2024 · A	18	43→48	41→55	53→45	53	207/305/309	102	280	9	8	27%	11%	78	-0.3	224/320/362	138	312	14	6	30%	12%	95	+1.0	229/330/392	163	306	18	4	29%	12%	104	+0.9

Samuel Orellana

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps