Alexander Frias

OF Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 19 L/R 6'2" / 177 lbs A HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

APROSPECTFG #42MiLBFA 2037

Scout OFP50ETA2029FG ETA2031MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Brewers G…	112	.316/.414/.400	1	7	49	—	.192/.279/.222
2026	18	ASTL	236	.240/.340/.397	6	13	69	—	.208/.285/.340
2026	18	ROKMIL	137	.441/.518/.678	4	12	150	—	.339/.401/.500
2027PROJ4% MLB	19	MLBSTL	13	.216/.281/.341	0	0	76	-0.0
2028PROJ36% MLB	20	MLBSTL	158	.223/.289/.362	4	3	84	-0.0
2029PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBSTL	241	.228/.296/.381	7	5	92	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$4M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed91

ISO72

K%70

Whiff%46

wOBA44

Z-Con%43

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -1 / P90 28, comp-based) · star 9% · didn't stick 68%

CompsJosue Briceño (age 19) · Nomar Mazara (age 19) · John Drennen (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .281 / .341

PA13

HR0

K%31

BB%8

BABIP281

ISO124

MLB%4%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$21M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 61

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER61

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE48

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2034	Arb-1	$4M	+1.0	$5M	+$3M
2035	Arb-2	$7M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$9M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$14M	+$7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Brewers Gold	—	112	95	30	5	0	1	14	21	2	7	3	316	414	400	814	84	392	19	12	370	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	236	204	49	8	3	6	26	56	5	13	3	240	340	397	737	157	301	24	11	332	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	ACL Brewers	—	137	118	52	12	2	4	16	21	3	12	6	441	518	678	1.196	237	516	15	12	519	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	—	112	99	19	3	0	0	10	27	2	7	3	192	279	222	502	30	259	24	9	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	Palm Beach Cardinals	—	236	212	44	7	3	5	18	76	5	13	3	208	285	340	625	132	288	32	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	ACL Brewers	—	137	124	42	9	1	3	10	30	3	12	6	339	401	500	901	161	428	22	7	390	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	—	112	99	19	3	0	0	10	27	2	7	3	192	279	222	502	30	260	24	9	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Gold	—	112	95	30	5	0	1	14	21	2	7	3	316	414	400	814	84	392	19	12	370	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	373	336	85	15	4	8	28	107	8	25	9	253	325	393	718	140	347	29	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	373	322	101	20	5	10	42	77	8	25	9	314	406	500	906	186	386	21	11	401	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	—	112	99	19	3	0	0	10	27	2	7	3	192	279	222	502	30	259	24	9	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	373	334	85	15	4	8	28	107	8	25	9	254	325	395	720	141	339	29	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	—	112	99	19	3	0	0	10	27	2	7	3	192	279	222	502	30	259	24	9	241	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	373	334	85	15	4	8	28	107	8	25	9	254	325	395	720	141	339	29	8	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	STL	4%	483	441	95	17	3	11	33	132	6	10	3	216	281	345	625	129	280	27	7	280	76	-14	+1	-1	-3	+10	-0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	19	MLB CTX	STL	4%	13	12	2	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	216	281	341	622	125	281	31	8	279	76	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	STL	36%	438	398	89	16	3	12	31	118	6	9	3	223	289	367	656	144	282	27	7	293	84	-8	+1	-1	-3	+9	-0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	STL	49%	490	444	101	18	3	15	36	129	7	10	3	229	297	387	683	158	284	26	7	304	92	-5	+1	-1	-3	+11	0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	STL	55%	529	477	111	19	3	18	39	137	8	11	3	234	302	402	704	168	286	26	7	312	97	-2	+1	-1	-3	+11	0.7
2031	23	MLB MLE	STL	57%	571	515	123	21	4	21	43	145	8	12	3	237	306	413	719	176	287	25	8	318	101	+1	+1	-0	-3	+12	1.1
2032	24	MLB MLE	STL	57%	617	556	133	23	4	23	47	156	9	12	3	240	309	421	730	181	289	25	8	322	104	+3	+1	-0	-4	+13	1.4
2033	25	MLB MLE	STL	57%	633	571	139	24	4	25	48	159	9	12	4	241	310	427	737	185	289	25	8	325	106	+5	+1	+0	-4	+14	1.6
2034	26	MLB MLE	STL	57%	638	575	139	24	4	25	49	161	9	12	4	242	311	430	741	188	289	25	8	326	107	+5	+1	+0	-4	+14	1.7
2035	27	MLB MLE	STL	55%	637	574	139	24	4	25	49	161	9	12	4	241	310	427	737	186	288	25	8	325	106	+5	+1	+0	-4	+14	1.6
2036	28	MLB MLE	STL	55%	631	570	137	23	4	25	48	161	8	10	3	239	308	422	730	183	287	26	8	322	104	+3	+1	-0	-4	+14	1.4
2037	29	MLB MLE	STL	53%	620	560	133	22	4	24	47	160	8	9	4	236	305	416	721	180	285	26	8	318	102	+1	+0	-1	-4	+13	1.0
2038	30	MLB MLE	STL	57%	609	550	129	22	3	23	46	159	8	9	4	233	301	408	709	175	283	26	8	314	98	-1	+0	-2	-4	+13	0.7
2039	31	MLB MLE	STL	60%	595	539	123	21	3	21	44	158	7	7	5	229	296	398	694	169	280	27	7	308	94	-4	-1	-3	-4	+13	0.2
2040	32	MLB MLE	STL	61%	576	522	117	19	3	20	42	156	7	6	9	224	290	385	675	161	276	27	7	300	89	-7	-2	-3	-3	+12	-0.4
2028	20	MLB CTX	STL	36%	158	144	32	6	1	4	11	42	2	3	1	223	289	362	651	139	284	27	7	291	84	-3	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	STL	49%	241	218	50	9	2	7	18	63	3	5	1	228	296	381	677	152	286	26	7	301	92	-2	+1	-0	-1	+5	0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	STL	55%	288	261	61	11	2	9	21	74	4	6	2	233	301	395	696	162	287	26	7	309	97	-1	+0	-0	-2	+6	0.4
2031	23	MLB CTX	STL	57%	324	292	70	13	2	11	24	83	5	7	2	236	305	406	711	169	289	26	7	315	101	+1	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.6
2032	24	MLB CTX	STL	57%	349	314	75	14	2	12	27	88	5	7	2	239	308	413	721	174	290	25	8	319	104	+2	+1	-0	-2	+8	0.8
2033	25	MLB CTX	STL	57%	358	323	77	14	2	13	27	90	5	7	2	240	309	418	728	178	290	25	8	321	106	+3	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.9
2034	26	MLB CTX	STL	57%	360	324	78	14	2	13	28	91	5	7	2	241	310	421	731	180	290	25	8	323	107	+3	+1	+0	-2	+8	1.0
2035	27	MLB CTX	STL	55%	353	318	76	14	2	13	27	89	5	6	2	240	309	418	727	179	289	25	8	321	106	+3	+0	+0	-2	+8	0.9
2036	28	MLB CTX	STL	55%	346	312	74	13	2	13	26	88	5	6	2	238	307	414	721	176	288	25	8	319	104	+2	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.7
2037	29	MLB CTX	STL	53%	331	299	71	13	2	12	25	86	4	5	2	235	304	408	712	172	287	26	8	315	102	+1	+0	-1	-2	+7	0.6
2038	30	MLB CTX	STL	57%	348	315	73	13	2	12	26	91	4	5	2	232	300	400	700	168	285	26	7	310	98	-1	+0	-1	-2	+8	0.4
2039	31	MLB CTX	STL	60%	355	322	74	13	2	12	26	94	4	4	3	228	295	390	686	162	281	26	7	304	94	-2	-0	-2	-2	+8	0.1
2040	32	MLB CTX	STL	61%	353	320	71	12	2	11	26	95	4	3	6	223	289	378	667	155	277	27	7	297	89	-5	-2	-2	-2	+8	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4164	3762	882	159	25	142	312	1074	55	71	29	234	302	403	706	169	288	26	7	312	98	-1	+3	-6	-25	+90	6.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	138	25	4	22	49	168	9	11	5	235	304	404	708	169	289	26	8	312	98	-0	+0	-1	-4	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	8389	7577	1779	305	52	292	629	2182	117	170	66	235	303	404	708	170	289	26	7	313	98	-13	+6	-11	-47	+171	10.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	139	24	4	23	49	169	9	13	5	237	305	409	714	172	291	26	8	313	98	-1	+0	-1	-4	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	7.5	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
/162	664	24	4	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#2Juan Encarnacion'97-'07 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,095 PA	7.7	5,095	156	127	258*	304*	426*	-35	-21	9.1	9.1
/162	664	20	17	-4.6	-2.7	1.2	pk7: 9
#3Jeff Francoeurlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,633 PA	8.5	5,633	160	54	262	304	417	-60	-26	6.8	9.0
/162	664	19	6	-7.1	-3.1	0.8	pk7: 11
#4Willie Kirkland'58-'66 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,882 PA	5.8	3,882	148	52	237*	302*	437*	-37	-0	8.1	8.5
/162	664	25	9	-6.3	-0.1	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	6.3	4,177	153	71	236	301	412	-25	-5	9.1	8.1
/162	664	24	11	-4.0	-0.8	1.4	pk7: 7
#5Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#6Danny Moeller'07-'16 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,912 PA	4.4	2,912	15	171	242*	323*	402*	-31	-13	2.8	2.8
/162	664	3	39	-7.0	-3.0	0.6	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alexander Frias (OGILVIE)	19	20→40	42→61	50	35	214/278/342	128	280	7	7	27%	7%	76	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Josue Briceño 2024 · A	19	43	44→60	45→40	45	212/270/332	119	265	11	5	24%	7%	70	-0.9	231/302/376	145	286	16	3	24%	8%	92	+0.7	230/310/399	168	278	22	1	25%	9%	99	+0.6
✕Nomar Mazara 2014 · A	19	39→49	43→55	44→40	39	194/254/306	113	294	11	3	36%	7%	58	-1.7	235/295/368	133	306	15	3	27%	7%	88	+0.4	249/308/420	171	291	21	3	22%	7%	102	+1.4
✕John Drennen 2006 · A	19	39→49	47→45	47→45	42	202/262/333	131	257	15	8	28%	6%	68	-1.0	224/283/327	103	291	9	6	25%	6%	74	-0.6	250/301/374	124	298	8	1	18%	6%	88	+0.3
●Davis Schneider 2018 · A	19	40→45	41→55	48→50	50	197/279/301	104	258	8	6	26%	10%	66	-1.1	196/270/292	96	306	8	7	35%	8%	61	-1.5	212/323/402	190	276	23	9	30%	13%	106	+1.4
✕Alexander Canario 2019 · A	19	39→36	41→60	47→50	46	193/265/292	98	258	9	12	28%	8%	59	-1.7	209/266/356	147	291	17	11	33%	7%	74	-0.5	210/280/412	202	285	27	13	35%	8%	90	+0.4
●Esmerlyn Valdez 2023 · A	19	40→44	42→60	44→30	44	195/277/301	106	276	10	5	31%	8%	66	-1.1	199/274/334	135	301	16	4	37%	8%	73	-0.6	207/300/402	195	286	26	2	35%	10%	96	+0.8
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	41→51	46→50	45→40	50	210/283/334	125	261	14	5	25%	9%	76	-0.4	248/309/379	131	301	14	4	21%	8%	95	+0.9	266/327/397	130	316	14	3	20%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Angel Ortiz 2022 · A	19	42→45	41→50	46→45	44	206/261/296	90	269	9	9	26%	7%	57	-1.8	207/257/302	95	281	7	7	27%	6%	57	-1.8	227/286/370	143	294	13	8	26%	7%	82	+0.0
●Carter Jensen 2023 · A	20	38→48	42→55	45→50	49	189/279/298	109	272	9	7	32%	11%	66	-1.1	205/296/340	135	284	14	9	30%	11%	82	-0.0	233/312/421	188	299	22	7	28%	10%	105	+1.6
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	36→44	39→50	53→55	48	177/265/262	85	249	7	11	30%	9%	53	-2.1	194/283/299	105	299	9	16	34%	10%	68	-1.0	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
●Anthony Santander 2014 · A	19	43→48	43→65	46→45	39	213/266/324	111	279	10	9	27%	5%	67	-1.1	206/259/322	116	283	11	7	30%	5%	63	-1.3	238/311/467	229	250	32	2	20%	8%	118	+2.9
✕Akil Baddoo 2018 · A	19	46→53	42→50	52→55	49	220/298/335	114	290	7	10	25%	9%	80	-0.1	201/274/317	116	305	8	13	34%	9%	68	-1.0	238/319/386	148	309	15	24	26%	11%	100	+0.9
✕Brandon Allen 2006 · A	20	41→49	46→55	45→50	39	206/270/335	129	305	14	7	36%	7%	71	-0.8	207/251/353	146	294	17	6	34%	5%	68	-1.0	228/311/413	185	290	22	9	28%	10%	103	+1.5
✕Bo Naylor 2019 · A	19	45→46	39→55	52→50	46	212/280/301	90	299	6	9	30%	9%	66	-1.1	196/254/318	122	282	11	8	33%	7%	60	-1.6	218/311/396	178	274	21	12	27%	11%	100	+1.0
●MJ Melendez 2019 · A	20	39→48	48→60	44→50	36	193/252/338	145	309	15	5	41%	7%	65	-1.2	183/247/339	156	299	18	6	43%	7%	63	-1.3	226/311/422	196	274	24	4	26%	11%	106	+1.7
✕Nehomar Ochoa Jr. 2024 · A	19	43	45→55	50→60	42	213/275/336	123	276	12	8	27%	6%	73	-0.6	185/249/285	100	298	11	14	39%	6%	51	-2.2	174/237/278	104	280	12	21	40%	6%	43	-1.2
✕Joe Benson 2007 · A	19	42→52	42→55	46→50	41	206/257/315	109	278	9	10	28%	6%	61	-1.5	217/287/313	96	326	6	13	33%	7%	72	-0.7	238/316/415	177	327	18	15	31%	8%	104	+1.2
✕Isan Díaz 2016 · A	20	44→43	47→55	48→45	41	216/276/358	142	306	13	9	32%	7%	78	-0.3	206/276/342	136	304	13	8	34%	8%	74	-0.5	212/290/379	167	275	21	5	30%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Tirso Ornelas 2019 · A	19	44→54	41→50	50→45	45	214/282/314	100	297	8	5	30%	8%	70	-0.9	195/261/274	79	285	5	5	31%	8%	53	-2.1	262/321/391	130	320	13	7	22%	7%	99	+1.1
✕Samuel Zavala 2023 · A	19	42→44	45	48→50	46	206/278/339	133	281	12	10	30%	9%	74	-0.5	193/287/305	112	289	11	12	34%	11%	71	-0.8	193/290/301	108	265	12	12	29%	11%	68	-0.8

Alexander Frias

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps