Samuel Zavala

CF Birmingham Barons

Age 23 L/L 5'11" / 175 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

OGV OFP35OGV rank#956ETA2030MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	A+CWS	467	.187/.341/.301	8	14	47	—	.157/.259/.260
2025	21	A+/INTL2 orgs	505	.249/.356/.364	9	19	65	—	.215/.292/.317
2026	22	AA/INTL2 orgs	512	.234/.389/.382	14	12	90	—	.215/.331/.344
2027PROJMLE	23	MLBCWS	4	.204/.303/.322	0	0	79	0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB	24	MLBCWS	106	.209/.306/.332	2	1	83	0.1
2029PROJ35% MLB	25	MLBCWS	174	.211/.308/.339	4	2	85	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$2M2032Arb-2$3M2033Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

BB%97

Chase%96

wRC+76

wOBA71

K%58

ISO53

Career WAR0.1 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 69%

CompsDarrien Miller (age 23) · Anthony Seigler (age 24) · Dom Nuñez (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†79

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .303 / .322

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%11

BABIP267

ISO121

MLB%2%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$1M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.3	$1.0M	+$0.3M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$4M	+$0.4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Padres	—	235	195	58	16	6	3	32	36	4	11	7	297	407	487	894	190	344	15	14	390	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	141	122	31	6	2	7	19	37	0	5	3	254	355	508	863	254	308	26	13	378	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Padres	—	35	29	10	3	1	1	4	11	0	0	0	345	424	621	1.045	276	500	31	11	425	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	56	51	4	1	0	0	5	19	0	1	1	78	161	98	259	20	125	34	9	134	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	459	348	93	22	0	14	89	121	9	20	6	267	428	451	879	184	356	26	19	387	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	467	375	70	15	2	8	83	104	5	14	5	187	341	301	643	115	234	22	18	303	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	486	409	104	17	2	9	65	104	5	18	8	254	363	372	735	117	316	21	13	332	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	INTL	Cardenales de Lara	—	19	17	2	1	0	0	1	6	0	1	1	118	167	176	343	59	182	32	5	152	-11	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA	Birmingham Barons	—	484	383	90	17	0	14	94	112	4	12	8	235	391	389	780	154	295	23	19	357	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	INTL	Cardenales de Lara	—	28	23	5	1	0	0	5	4	0	0	0	217	357	261	618	43	263	14	18	300	89	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	—	235	206	37	10	3	1	21	45	4	11	7	180	268	272	540	92	220	19	9	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	141	127	26	4	2	6	14	52	0	5	3	205	284	409	693	205	279	37	10	287	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	35	31	8	2	1	1	2	16	0	0	0	258	303	484	787	226	395	46	6	296	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	56	52	4	1	0	0	4	24	0	1	1	77	143	96	239	19	119	43	7	104	-43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	459	375	78	16	0	10	62	173	9	20	6	208	334	331	665	123	318	38	14	299	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	467	407	64	11	2	9	51	143	5	14	5	157	259	260	520	103	211	31	11	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	486	432	93	13	2	9	42	143	5	18	8	215	292	317	609	102	286	29	9	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	Birmingham Barons	—	484	410	88	17	0	12	67	136	4	12	8	215	331	344	674	129	286	28	14	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	—	235	206	37	10	3	1	21	45	4	11	7	180	268	272	540	92	220	19	9	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	—	235	195	58	16	6	3	32	36	4	11	7	297	407	487	894	190	344	15	14	390	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	176	158	31	6	2	6	16	68	0	5	3	196	270	373	644	177	294	39	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A RAW	2 teams	—	176	151	41	9	3	8	23	48	0	5	3	272	368	530	898	258	344	27	13	387	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	515	428	82	17	0	10	65	196	9	21	7	192	311	301	612	110	312	38	13	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	515	399	97	23	0	14	94	140	9	21	7	243	398	406	804	163	327	27	18	360	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	467	407	64	11	2	9	51	143	5	14	5	157	259	260	520	103	214	31	11	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	—	467	375	70	15	2	8	83	104	5	14	5	187	341	301	643	115	234	22	18	303	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	505	448	97	14	2	9	44	148	5	19	9	217	294	317	611	100	297	29	9	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	505	426	106	18	2	9	66	110	5	19	9	249	356	364	720	115	311	22	13	326	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	512	434	94	18	0	13	71	144	4	12	8	217	332	348	680	131	291	28	14	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA RAW	2 teams	—	512	406	95	18	0	14	99	116	4	12	8	234	389	382	771	148	292	23	19	354	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	—	235	208	37	10	3	1	21	45	4	11	7	178	268	269	538	91	220	19	9	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A MLE	2 teams	—	176	158	31	6	2	6	16	68	0	5	3	196	270	373	644	177	302	39	9	289	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	515	436	82	17	0	10	65	196	9	21	7	188	311	296	607	108	296	38	13	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	467	408	64	11	2	9	51	143	5	14	5	157	259	260	519	103	211	31	11	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	505	451	97	14	2	9	44	148	5	19	9	215	294	315	609	100	286	29	9	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	512	432	94	18	0	13	71	144	4	12	8	218	332	350	682	132	286	28	14	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	—	467	408	64	11	2	9	51	143	5	14	5	157	259	260	519	103	211	31	11	237	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	505	451	97	14	2	9	44	148	5	19	9	215	294	315	609	100	286	29	9	268	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	AA MLE	2 teams	—	512	432	94	18	0	13	71	144	4	12	8	218	332	350	682	132	286	28	14	301	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	CWS	2%	594	516	105	19	1	13	68	162	5	8	4	204	302	319	621	116	267	27	11	285	79	-15	+0	+1	+2	+13	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	CWS	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	204	303	322	625	117	267	25	0	286	79	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CWS	23%	460	400	84	15	1	11	53	123	4	5	3	208	306	330	635	122	269	27	12	290	83	-10	-0	+1	+2	+10	0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	CWS	35%	495	432	90	16	1	12	56	131	4	5	3	210	307	336	644	126	270	26	11	293	85	-9	-0	+2	+2	+11	0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	CWS	42%	516	449	95	17	1	13	58	136	4	5	3	212	308	340	648	128	271	26	11	295	86	-9	-0	+2	+2	+11	0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	CWS	45%	523	456	97	17	1	13	58	137	4	5	3	213	308	341	648	128	272	26	11	295	86	-9	-0	+2	+2	+11	0.7
2032	28	MLB MLE	CWS	47%	522	455	98	18	1	13	58	137	4	5	3	213	307	340	646	127	272	26	11	294	85	-9	-0	+2	+2	+11	0.5
2033	29	MLB MLE	CWS	46%	513	448	94	17	1	12	56	136	4	4	4	211	304	333	637	123	271	27	11	290	83	-11	-1	+1	+2	+11	0.2
2034	30	MLB MLE	CWS	46%	502	438	91	16	1	11	55	135	4	4	6	208	301	326	626	118	269	27	11	286	80	-12	-2	+0	+2	+11	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	CWS	23%	106	92	18	3	0	2	12	28	1	1	1	209	306	332	639	124	270	26	11	292	83	-2	-0	+0	+0	+2	0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	CWS	35%	174	151	32	6	0	4	20	46	1	2	1	211	308	339	647	128	271	26	11	295	85	-3	+0	+1	+1	+4	0.2
2030	26	MLB CTX	CWS	42%	217	189	40	7	1	5	24	57	2	2	1	213	309	342	651	129	272	26	11	296	86	-4	+0	+1	+1	+5	0.3
2031	27	MLB CTX	CWS	45%	234	204	44	8	1	6	26	61	2	2	1	214	309	343	652	130	273	26	11	296	86	-4	+0	+1	+1	+5	0.3
2032	28	MLB CTX	CWS	47%	243	212	46	8	1	6	27	64	2	2	2	214	307	342	650	129	273	26	11	295	85	-4	-0	+1	+1	+5	0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	CWS	46%	238	208	45	8	1	6	26	63	2	2	2	211	305	336	641	125	272	26	11	292	83	-5	-0	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2034	30	MLB CTX	CWS	46%	233	204	43	8	1	5	25	63	2	2	3	208	301	328	630	120	270	27	11	287	80	-6	-1	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1445	1260	268	48	5	34	160	382	12	13	11	213	307	340	647	127	275	26	11	293	78	-28	-2	+4	+5	+31	1.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	567	120	22	2	15	72	172	5	6	5	212	306	337	643	125	274	26	11	293	78	-13	-1	+2	+2	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	6151	5341	1092	199	16	138	686	1736	57	118	65	204	302	325	627	121	272	28	11	284	78	-74	-3	+11	+13	+81	2.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	564	116	21	2	15	72	183	6	12	7	206	302	330	631	124	273	28	11	284	78	-13	-1	+2	+2	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AABirmingham Barons · 484 PAwOBA .350 → .301 (−48)K% 23.1% → 28.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.14%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	28.23%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.42%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.042	13.76%
HBP% /PA	0.83%	—	×0.840	—	×1.042	0.72%
Singles /BIP	21.77%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.023	×1.042	21.36%
Doubles /BIP	6.27%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.023	×1.042	6.09%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.880	×1.023	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.17%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.042	4.31%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.

Result: wOBA .350 → .301; ISO .154 → .138; BABIP .295 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 486 PAwOBA .328 → .268 (−60)K% 21.4% → 29.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	21.40%	÷0.955	×1.310	—	—	29.36%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.37%	÷0.949	×0.600	—	×1.027	8.68%
HBP% /PA	1.03%	—	×0.770	—	×1.027	0.81%
Singles /BIP	24.92%	÷0.942	×0.870	×0.984	×1.027	23.25%
Doubles /BIP	5.57%	÷0.984	×0.780	×0.984	×1.027	4.46%
Triples /BIP	0.66%	÷1.045	×0.850	×0.984	×1.027	0.54%
Home runs /BIP	2.95%	÷0.923	×0.880	—	×1.027	2.89%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 88, 2B 97, 3B 109, K 91, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .328 → .268; ISO .117 → .103; BABIP .316 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 467 PAwOBA .297 → .237 (−61)K% 22.3% → 30.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.27%	÷0.952	×1.310	—	—	30.66%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.77%	÷1.006	×0.600	—	×1.042	11.04%
HBP% /PA	1.07%	—	×0.770	—	×1.042	0.86%
Singles /BIP	16.61%	÷0.972	×0.870	×1.006	×1.042	15.58%
Doubles /BIP	5.54%	÷1.070	×0.780	×1.006	×1.042	4.23%
Triples /BIP	0.74%	÷0.929	×0.850	×1.006	×1.042	0.71%
Home runs /BIP	2.95%	÷0.817	×0.880	—	×1.042	3.31%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 94, 2B 114, 3B 86, K 90, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.

Result: wOBA .297 → .237; ISO .115 → .112; BABIP .234 → .211. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ALake Elsinore Storm · 459 PAwOBA .385 → .299 (−86)K% 26.4% → 37.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.36%	÷0.953	×1.360	—	—	37.60%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	19.17%	÷1.032	×0.690	—	×1.045	13.40%
HBP% /PA	1.96%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	1.60%
Singles /BIP	25.11%	÷0.951	×0.920	×0.950	×1.045	24.11%
Doubles /BIP	9.69%	÷1.065	×0.830	×0.950	×1.045	7.50%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.910	×0.950	×1.045	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.17%	÷1.121	×0.800	—	×1.045	4.60%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 90, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 91, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .385 → .299; ISO .184 → .133; BABIP .356 → .318. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Fort Wayne TinCaps · 56 PAwOBA .131 → .104 (−27)K% 33.9% → 42.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.93%	÷1.014	×1.270	—	—	42.50%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.93%	÷0.983	×0.710	—	×1.050	6.77%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.790	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	9.38%	÷0.956	×0.920	—	×1.050	9.47%
Doubles /BIP	3.12%	÷1.118	×0.810	—	×1.050	2.38%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.850	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.848	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 91, 2B 124, 3B 130, K 103, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .131 → .104; ISO .020 → .013; BABIP .125 → .119. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ALake Elsinore Storm · 141 PAwOBA .368 → .287 (−81)K% 26.2% → 36.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.24%	÷0.968	×1.360	—	—	36.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.48%	÷0.992	×0.690	—	×1.050	9.84%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	18.82%	÷1.020	×0.920	×1.009	×1.050	17.99%
Doubles /BIP	7.06%	÷1.115	×0.830	×1.009	×1.050	5.57%
Triples /BIP	2.35%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.009	×1.050	2.27%
Home runs /BIP	8.24%	÷0.938	×0.800	—	×1.050	7.37%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 104, 2B 123, 3B 100, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .368 → .287; ISO .254 → .198; BABIP .308 → .279. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Padres · 35 PAwOBA .426 → .296 (−129)K% 31.4% → 46.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	31.43%	÷0.984	×1.440	—	—	46.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.43%	÷1.015	×0.620	—	×1.022	7.14%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.78%	÷0.965	×0.820	—	×1.022	24.13%
Doubles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.016	×0.720	—	×1.022	12.08%
Triples /BIP	5.56%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×1.022	4.09%
Home runs /BIP	5.56%	÷1.081	×0.780	—	×1.022	4.10%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 93, 2B 103, 3B 100, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .426 → .296; ISO .276 → .184; BABIP .500 → .395. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 DSLDSL Padres · 235 PAwOBA .385 → .251 (−134)K% 15.3% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.32%	÷0.972	×1.220	—	—	19.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.19%	÷1.046	×0.700	—	×1.022	9.03%
HBP% /PA	1.70%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.22%
Singles /BIP	20.75%	÷0.991	×0.680	×0.967	×1.022	14.08%
Doubles /BIP	10.06%	÷0.947	×0.600	×0.967	×1.022	6.30%
Triples /BIP	3.77%	÷1.150	×0.600	×0.967	×1.022	1.95%
Home runs /BIP	1.89%	÷1.199	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.76%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 98, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .385 → .251; ISO .190 → .106; BABIP .344 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#2Jim Gosger'63-'74 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,066 PA	3.1	2,066	30	25	233*	316*	364*	-9	+12	3.2	4.1
/162	664	10	8	-2.8	+3.8	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Ruben Rivera'95-'03 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,818 PA	2.7	1,818	64	50	206*	292*	376*	-1	+20	4.0	4.0
/162	664	23	18	-0.3	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 4
#4Garrett Hampsonlast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,805 PA	2.7	1,805	29	65	234	296	352	+10	+10	3.9	3.9
/162	664	11	24	+3.6	+3.7	1.4	pk7: 4
#5Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.2	1,449	34	13	212	303	337	+5	+6	1.6	1.6
/162	664	16	6	+2.4	+2.7	0.7	pk7: 2
#6Rick Bosetti'76-'82 * career totals — 5 seasons, 1,656 PA	2.5	1,656	17	30	243*	286*	358*	+3	+16	0.6	0.6
/162	664	7	12	+1.4	+6.5	0.2	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Samuel Zavala (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	202/300/316	115	267	5	3	27%	12%	79	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Darrien Miller 2024 · A	23	39→42	44→45	48→45	47	194/289/310	116	258	12	6	28%	9%	74	-0.6	192/313/294	102	262	8	5	27%	11%	80	-0.2	179/320/285	107	245	9	4	27%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Anthony Seigler 2023 · A	24	39→40	42→45	46→55	54	193/293/304	111	262	9	11	28%	12%	73	-0.6	198/296/310	112	251	10	20	23%	12%	75	-0.5	221/312/347	126	270	10	25	21%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Dom Nuñez 2018 · AA	23	40→46	44→50	49→45	48	203/278/317	113	255	13	8	25%	8%	70	-0.9	200/276/330	130	263	15	8	29%	9%	72	-0.7	181/265/328	147	236	18	5	31%	9%	68	-0.5
✕Isan Díaz 2019 · AAA	23	41→43	46→55	50→45	44	205/277/341	136	298	13	10	34%	8%	75	-0.5	217/287/367	150	293	17	6	30%	8%	84	+0.2	212/290/379	167	275	21	5	30%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Daniel Vellojin 2024 · AA	24	39	43→45	45	49	192/277/302	110	267	11	6	30%	10%	66	-1.1	177/253/266	89	250	8	6	31%	8%	49	-2.4	150/230/223	73	210	7	4	31%	8%	29	-1.4
✕Drew Robinson 2016 · AAA	24	38→43	48→55	49→50	46	194/274/343	149	274	15	12	34%	9%	74	-0.5	212/288/380	168	308	18	12	35%	9%	88	+0.4	211/288/384	173	313	19	12	36%	9%	85	+0.2
✕Colin Barber 2024 · AA	23	43	46→45	46→45	47	214/296/340	126	289	13	9	29%	9%	82	+0.0	200/264/312	112	290	11	8	33%	7%	63	-1.4	182/242/287	105	270	10	6	34%	6%	48	-1.4
✕Imanol Vargas 2021 · A	23	42→43	44→50	46→45	47	204/287/322	118	294	12	8	32%	10%	74	-0.5	206/286/361	155	328	19	4	39%	10%	83	+0.1	198/285/355	157	311	19	2	39%	10%	79	-0.2
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA	23	42→48	48→55	52→55	44	215/274/360	145	274	16	12	28%	7%	78	-0.3	228/295/388	160	293	16	20	27%	8%	92	+0.7	227/300/392	165	291	17	22	27%	9%	94	+0.7
✕Zack Short 2019 · AA	24	40→39	47→50	47→45	51	202/293/345	143	270	14	9	29%	11%	82	+0.0	198/291/335	137	280	14	7	32%	10%	79	-0.2	177/277/302	125	240	14	9	31%	11%	66	-0.8
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	38	45→55	47→45	46	195/271/314	120	240	13	8	25%	7%	68	-1.0	215/270/381	166	280	21	4	31%	6%	82	-0.0	212/261/402	190	265	27	0	32%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Jacob Amaya 2022 · AA	23	41→47	43→45	48→45	47	203/269/312	108	262	11	6	26%	8%	65	-1.2	220/290/337	117	281	12	7	25%	9%	78	-0.3	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕John Whittleman 2010 · AA	23	42→45	43→50	41→45	52	206/292/323	117	276	10	4	28%	11%	76	-0.4	189/271/326	137	257	15	3	31%	10%	70	-0.9	172/259/320	148	230	18	1	32%	11%	63	-1.0
✕Alexander Ovalles 2023 · AA	22	43→41	47→50	46→50	45	217/281/349	132	278	14	8	27%	7%	78	-0.3	214/279/323	109	308	11	11	32%	8%	71	-0.8	177/255/227	50	295	4	15	38%	10%	36	-0.7
✕Trey Hair 2018 · A	23	43	48→55	51→45	44	217/286/366	149	280	15	6	27%	7%	84	+0.2	225/285/338	113	297	8	7	26%	6%	76	-0.4	215/274/384	169	274	21	5	29%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Matthew Sweeney 2011 · AA	23	42	44→55	48→45	41	209/269/327	118	295	11	4	32%	7%	68	-1.0	188/250/297	109	270	10	4	32%	7%	55	-2.0	155/222/262	107	217	10	1	32%	7%	33	-1.3
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→46	41→50	51→40	45	197/266/297	101	258	8	11	26%	7%	61	-1.5	222/279/357	135	292	15	6	28%	6%	79	-0.2	226/286/369	143	292	17	3	28%	6%	81	-0.0
✕Jacob Wetzel 2023 · A	23	39→34	43→45	50	47	194/280/301	107	268	12	10	30%	9%	68	-1.0	192/268/302	110	281	9	13	32%	9%	63	-1.4	180/256/297	117	269	7	16	33%	9%	55	-1.0
✕George Valera 2024 · AAA	23	42→43	49→50	42→45	49	213/301/363	150	293	17	5	32%	10%	89	+0.5	221/292/363	142	301	16	6	30%	9%	85	+0.2	222/290/363	141	290	16	5	28%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Jose Brizuela 2016 · A	23	41→39	44→50	50→45	45	206/271/326	120	274	11	7	28%	8%	69	-0.9	208/265/331	123	293	14	5	32%	7%	68	-1.0	187/241/315	128	257	17	1	34%	6%	53	-0.9

Samuel Zavala

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps