Samuel Zavala — OGILVIE

Samuel ZavalaCF Birmingham Barons

Age 22 L/L 5'11" / 175 lbs AA HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 ROS PROJECTION327 act + 218 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .287 / .280

PA218

HR4

K%32

BB%11

BABIP265

ISO95

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-2	$2M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.5M
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$11M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Padres	—	235	209	45	13	3	2	18	55	4	11	7	215	290	335	625	120	276	23	8	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL Padres	—	235	195	58	16	6	3	32	36	4	11	7	297	407	487	894	190	344	15	14	390	156	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A	2 teams	—	176	158	30	5	2	7	16	69	0	5	3	190	264	380	644	190	277	39	9	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A	2 teams	—	176	151	41	9	3	8	23	48	0	5	3	272	368	530	898	258	344	27	13	387	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	2 teams	—	515	431	79	15	0	10	62	204	9	21	7	183	299	288	587	104	305	40	12	266	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	2 teams	—	515	399	97	23	0	14	94	140	9	21	7	243	398	406	804	163	327	27	18	360	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	467	404	63	10	2	10	54	154	5	14	5	156	263	265	528	109	219	33	12	241	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	467	375	70	15	2	8	83	104	5	14	5	187	341	301	643	115	234	22	18	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	2 teams	—	505	443	98	14	2	8	49	159	5	19	9	221	306	316	622	95	320	31	10	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	A+	2 teams	—	505	426	106	18	2	9	66	110	5	19	9	249	356	364	720	115	311	22	13	326	107	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	AA	CWS	—	327	284	52	9	0	6	39	106	2	9	5	183	286	278	564	95	266	32	12	259	56	-16	-0	+0	+1	+9	-0.6
YTD	22	AA	CWS	—	327	267	56	10	0	7	56	82	2	9	5	210	351	326	677	116	274	25	17	316	100	-0	-0	+0	+1	+9	1.0
ROS	22	AA	CWS	2%	218	189	35	6	0	4	25	69	2	4	2	185	287	280	567	95	266	32	11	266	62	-9	+0	+0	+1	+6	-0.2
ROS	22	MLB	CWS	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						266	25	0	262	58	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	22	AA	CWS	—	331	288	52	9	0	6	39	107	2	9	5	181	283	274	557	94	261	32	12	259	56	-16	-0	+0	+1	+9	-0.6
TOT	22	AA	CWS	—	545	473	87	15	0	10	64	175	4	13	7	184	287	279	566	95	266	32	12	262	59	-26	-0	+0	+2	+15	-0.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	CWS	26%	545	475	94	16	1	12	61	164	4	7	3	198	294	312	606	114	270	30	11	278	71	-18	+0	+1	+2	+15	0.0
2028	24	MLB	CWS	37%	579	506	102	17	1	14	64	169	4	6	3	202	296	322	618	121	273	29	11	286	77	-15	+0	+1	+2	+16	0.4
2029	25	MLB	CWS	43%	601	525	109	19	1	15	66	172	5	6	3	208	302	333	635	126	274	29	11	290	80	-13	+0	+1	+2	+17	0.7
2030	26	MLB	CWS	47%	612	534	111	19	1	16	68	174	5	6	3	208	303	337	640	129	274	28	11	292	82	-13	+0	+1	+2	+17	0.8
2031	27	MLB	CWS	48%	615	536	111	19	1	16	69	176	5	6	3	207	303	336	639	129	274	29	11	292	82	-13	+0	+1	+2	+17	0.8
2032	28	MLB	CWS	48%	611	532	111	19	1	16	69	175	5	6	3	209	305	338	644	130	274	29	11	291	81	-13	+0	-0	+2	+17	0.7
2033	29	MLB	CWS	48%	602	524	107	18	1	15	68	174	5	6	3	204	302	328	630	124	273	29	11	290	80	-14	+0	-1	+2	+17	0.5
2034	30	MLB	CWS	47%	592	515	105	18	1	14	67	173	5	6	3	204	302	324	626	120	272	29	11	287	78	-15	+0	-1	+2	+17	0.3
2027	23	MLB	CWS	26%	141	123	24	4	0	3	16	42	1	2	1	195	293	301	594	106	271	30	11	274	68	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	-0.0
2028	24	MLB	CWS	37%	213	185	38	7	0	5	24	62	2	2	1	205	303	324	628	119	274	29	11	281	74	-6	+0	+0	+1	+6	0.1
2029	25	MLB	CWS	43%	259	226	48	8	1	7	29	74	2	3	1	212	307	350	657	137	275	29	11	286	77	-7	+0	+0	+1	+7	0.2
2030	26	MLB	CWS	47%	286	250	53	9	1	8	32	82	2	3	1	212	306	352	658	140	275	29	11	288	78	-7	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2031	27	MLB	CWS	48%	293	256	54	9	1	8	33	84	2	3	1	211	306	348	653	137	275	29	11	288	78	-7	+0	+0	+1	+8	0.3
2032	28	MLB	CWS	48%	295	258	54	9	1	8	33	85	2	3	1	209	304	345	649	136	275	29	11	287	78	-7	+0	-0	+1	+8	0.2
2033	29	MLB	CWS	48%	286	250	52	9	1	7	32	83	2	3	1	208	303	336	639	128	274	29	11	285	76	-8	+0	-0	+1	+8	0.1
2034	30	MLB	CWS	47%	279	243	50	8	1	7	32	81	2	3	1	206	303	333	637	128	273	29	11	283	75	-8	+0	-1	+1	+8	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2056	1795	373	63	6	53	231	594	15	22	8	208	303	338	641	130	277	29	11	285	76	-56	+1	+0	+7	+58	1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	567	118	20	2	17	73	188	5	7	3	208	304	340	644	132	277	29	11	285	76	-18	+0	+0	+2	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	6873	5981	1200	208	17	159	756	2087	63	123	57	201	297	321	618	120	275	30	11	281	73	-207	+2	+1	+25	+195	1.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	114	20	2	15	71	197	6	12	5	201	297	323	620	122	277	30	11	281	73	-20	+0	+0	+2	+18	0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Padres	—	235	195	58	16	6	3	32	36	4	11	7	297	407	487	894	190	344	15	14	390	156	+15	-1	—	—	+7	2.1
2022	18	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	141	122	31	6	2	7	19	37	0	5	3	254	355	508	863	254	308	26	13	378	147	+8	-0	—	—	+4	1.2
2022	18	ROK	ACL Padres	—	35	29	10	3	1	1	4	11	0	0	0	345	424	621	1.045	276	500	31	11	425	183	+3	+0	—	—	+1	0.4
2023	19	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	56	51	4	1	0	0	5	19	0	1	1	78	161	98	259	20	125	34	9	134	-39	-9	-0	—	—	+2	-0.8
2023	19	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	459	348	93	22	0	14	89	121	9	20	6	267	428	451	879	184	356	26	19	387	154	+28	+2	—	—	+13	4.4
2024	20	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	467	375	70	15	2	8	83	104	5	14	5	187	341	301	643	115	234	22	18	303	90	-5	+1	—	—	+13	0.9
2025	21	A+	Winston-Salem Dash	—	486	409	104	17	2	9	65	104	5	18	8	254	363	372	735	117	316	21	13	332	113	+7	+0	—	—	+14	2.2
2025	21	INTL	Cardenales de Lara	—	19	17	2	1	0	0	1	6	0	1	1	118	167	176	343	59	182	32	5	152	-25	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Alex Gonzalezlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,150 PA	6	3,150	86	34	246	304	402	-0	+23	9.7	9.7
	/162	664	18	7	246	304	402	-0.0	+4.9	2.1	pk7: 10
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
#6Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	3	2,059	51	20	207	300	334	+7	+6	1.6	1.6
	/162	664	17	7	207	300	334	+2.4	+1.9	0.5	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Samuel Zavala (OGILVIE)	22	30→40	40→45	50	55	184/287/279	95	266	10	13	32%	12%	59	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Mike Papi 2015 · A	22	37→47	41→45	50→45	49	186/264/279	93	248	9	7	28%	10%	50	-1.7	199/277/309	110	280	10	5	30%	9%	63	-0.8	211/294/337	126	281	14	4	28%	10%	76	+0.1
✕Drew Robinson 2014 · A	22	41→40	44→55	49→50	45	201/281/320	119	294	11	8	33%	9%	68	-0.5	192/266/342	150	282	16	11	36%	9%	67	-0.5	213/286/393	179	309	20	12	36%	9%	85	+0.5
✕Carlos Guzman 2008 · A	22	39→48	43→50	53→50	44	194/277/307	113	282	11	9	33%	9%	63	-0.8	224/271/333	109	314	11	8	31%	6%	66	-0.6	231/283/327	97	303	10	3	26%	6%	67	-0.3
✕Adrian Del Castillo 2023 · A	23	36→43	44→50	52→40	42	187/249/306	120	252	12	7	30%	7%	51	-1.7	207/278/346	139	286	15	3	31%	8%	73	-0.1	222/289/402	180	281	22	1	28%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Isan Díaz 2018 · A	22	39→42	46→55	45	43	196/268/326	129	288	14	8	35%	8%	64	-0.8	209/275/354	145	294	16	8	32%	8%	74	-0.1	208/287/373	164	275	21	5	31%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Daniel Schneemann 2019 · A	22	38→48	40→50	50	43	185/251/280	94	271	8	6	33%	8%	44	-2.1	209/267/297	88	289	7	9	28%	7%	55	-1.4	226/305/375	149	299	15	13	28%	10%	88	+0.7
✕Iverson Leonardo 2023 · A	21	37	44→50	49→50	39	187/256/305	118	276	12	9	35%	7%	54	-1.4	197/279/292	95	352	7	8	42%	9%	60	-1.0	146/272/221	75	359	3	4	52%	12%	39	-0.5
✕Livan Soto 2022 · AA	22	36→46	40	50	41	181/235/274	93	246	8	11	29%	6%	36	-2.7	225/291/315	90	302	7	9	26%	8%	70	-0.3	236/307/320	84	310	7	8	24%	9%	76	+0.0
✕Jose Brizuela 2016 · A	23	41→40	43→50	50→45	46	204/274/320	117	274	10	7	28%	8%	65	-0.7	211/268/334	123	297	13	5	32%	7%	66	-0.6	195/247/325	130	268	17	1	33%	6%	52	-0.7
✕Christopher Familia 2023 · A	23	39	45→55	47→45	45	200/277/324	124	256	13	8	27%	7%	68	-0.5	216/273/378	162	292	20	4	32%	6%	80	+0.4	212/264/396	184	278	26	0	33%	5%	76	+0.0
✕Ashton McGee 2021 · A	22	41	39→45	50→40	41	194/258/283	89	288	5	5	33%	7%	48	-1.9	196/284/305	109	362	11	4	44%	10%	66	-0.6	177/274/284	107	334	12	2	45%	11%	53	-0.8
✕Imanol Vargas 2019 · A	21	42→44	40→50	45	51	200/293/295	95	288	7	9	30%	11%	67	-0.5	207/285/347	140	314	15	7	36%	9%	76	+0.1	205/290/360	154	326	18	2	39%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Kevin Padlo 2018 · A	22	36→40	46→55	44→50	48	183/269/314	131	257	13	8	32%	10%	62	-0.9	197/280/350	153	289	17	9	35%	9%	76	+0.0	195/265/371	176	262	22	12	34%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Chris Meyers 2022 · A	23	40→44	42→55	51→45	45	198/266/301	103	259	9	11	26%	7%	56	-1.3	220/277/364	144	296	17	6	30%	6%	78	+0.2	223/282/380	157	291	20	3	30%	6%	81	+0.3
✕Mike Daniel 2007 · A	22	39→49	41→45	48→50	43	192/259/288	96	277	9	11	33%	8%	50	-1.8	233/284/346	113	316	11	14	28%	6%	75	-0.0	236/286/349	113	314	11	15	27%	6%	74	-0.1
✕Travis Blankenhorn 2019 · A	22	39→45	44→55	50	38	194/257/317	122	286	11	7	35%	6%	56	-1.3	217/265/358	141	299	16	9	32%	5%	70	-0.3	208/281/368	159	278	20	6	31%	8%	77	+0.1
✕Anthony Seigler 2021 · A	22	42→39	37→50	49→55	47	199/276/274	74	283	5	6	29%	9%	53	-1.5	192/289/301	109	273	9	9	30%	12%	67	-0.5	226/317/363	137	277	12	28	21%	11%	91	+0.6
✕Jacob Wetzel 2023 · A	23	39→35	44→45	49→50	45	196/278/309	113	276	13	10	32%	9%	64	-0.8	190/263/303	113	285	10	13	34%	8%	56	-1.3	175/248/290	115	270	9	16	36%	8%	43	-1.1
✕Alexander Ovalles 2023 · AA	22	44→41	46→50	46→50	44	217/282/344	127	285	13	8	28%	7%	75	-0.0	214/278/320	106	313	10	11	32%	8%	66	-0.6	179/251/225	46	304	4	15	39%	9%	26	-0.7
✕Caleb Roberts 2023 · AA	23	41→42	43→45	50	43	199/278/313	114	297	11	12	34%	8%	65	-0.7	202/279/326	124	295	11	11	33%	8%	69	-0.4	187/272/303	117	258	12	11	30%	8%	58	-0.7