Colin Barber — OGILVIE

Colin BarberLF Sugar Land Space Cowboys

Age 25 L/L 5'11" / 200 lbs AAA HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 320 proj PA

wRC+†49

AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .249 / .296

PA320

HR6

K%33

BB%7

ISO112

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-8M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	GCL Astros	—	119	106	18	3	1	1	12	42	1	2	1	170	261	245	506	75	270	35	10	234	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	18	ROK	GCL Astros	—	119	99	26	5	1	2	19	29	1	2	1	263	387	394	780	131	353	24	16	357	131	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	53	46	7	1	0	2	6	30	1	1	1	152	264	304	568	152	357	57	11	225	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	20	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	53	42	9	1	0	3	9	22	1	1	1	214	358	452	811	238	353	42	17	360	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	260	225	47	6	1	5	23	89	11	7	4	209	313	311	624	102	318	34	9	276	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	21	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	260	218	65	10	1	7	30	57	11	7	4	298	409	450	859	151	374	22	12	387	154	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	321	285	56	15	1	6	30	86	4	5	2	196	282	319	601	123	256	27	9	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	321	270	66	16	1	11	45	73	4	5	2	244	361	433	794	189	293	23	14	354	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	282	258	49	8	0	7	15	109	4	4	2	190	245	302	548	112	286	39	5	246	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	282	252	56	9	0	8	21	85	4	4	2	222	292	353	646	131	293	30	7	288	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	2 teams	—	386	352	64	15	5	5	25	134	5	4	2	182	246	295	542	114	272	35	6	237	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	24	AAA	2 teams	—	386	340	72	16	5	6	37	106	5	4	2	212	298	341	640	129	284	27	10	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	25	MLB	HOU	—	320	291	55	12	2	6	22	105	4	4	1	189	256	306	561	117	265	33	7	249	49	-19	+0	+0	-3	+9	-1.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	26	MLB	HOU	35%	363	331	64	14	2	7	25	115	4	4	2	193	258	311	570	118	268	32	7	258	55	-18	+0	+0	-4	+10	-1.2
2028	27	MLB	HOU	44%	387	352	69	15	2	8	28	120	4	4	2	196	263	318	581	122	270	31	7	263	59	-18	+0	+0	-4	+11	-1.1
2029	28	MLB	HOU	49%	400	362	71	15	2	8	30	123	5	4	2	196	267	315	582	119	270	31	8	265	61	-18	+0	-1	-4	+11	-1.2
2027	26	MLB	HOU	35%	126	115	23	5	1	3	9	40	1	1	1	200	264	339	603	139	271	32	7	252	51	-7	-0	+0	-1	+4	-0.5
2028	27	MLB	HOU	44%	170	154	31	7	1	4	12	53	2	2	1	201	268	338	606	136	272	31	7	257	55	-9	+0	+0	-2	+5	-0.6
2029	28	MLB	HOU	49%	196	177	36	8	1	4	15	60	2	2	1	203	273	328	601	124	273	31	8	259	56	-10	+0	-0	-2	+6	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	492	446	90	20	3	11	36	153	5	5	3	202	269	334	603	132	277	31	7	257	55	-25	-0	-0	-5	+14	-1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	119	26	4	15	48	202	7	7	4	202	271	336	607	134	277	31	7	257	55	-33	-0	-0	-7	+18	-2.3
Career	—			—	2891	2608	500	104	16	55	216	953	43	39	19	192	265	307	572	115	275	33	7	256	54	-150	+0	-1	-31	+82	-10.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	112	23	4	12	49	214	10	9	4	191	265	305	571	114	275	33	8	256	54	-34	+0	-0	-7	+18	-2.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	18	ROK	GCL Astros	—	119	99	26	5	1	2	19	29	1	2	1	263	387	394	780	131	353	24	16	357	131	+4	+0	—	—	+3	0.8
2021	20	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	53	42	9	1	0	3	9	22	1	1	1	214	358	452	811	238	353	42	17	360	133	+2	-0	—	—	+2	0.3
2022	21	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	260	218	65	10	1	7	30	57	11	7	4	298	409	450	859	151	374	22	12	387	154	+16	-0	—	—	+7	2.4
2023	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	321	270	66	16	1	11	45	73	4	5	2	244	361	433	794	189	293	23	14	354	129	+11	+0	—	—	+9	2.0
2024	23	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	282	252	56	9	0	8	21	85	4	4	2	222	292	353	646	131	293	30	7	288	78	-7	+0	—	—	+8	0.1
2025	24	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	—	223	191	39	9	3	2	27	61	3	3	1	204	312	314	626	110	285	27	12	288	79	-5	+0	—	—	+6	0.1
2025	24	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	163	149	33	7	2	4	10	45	2	1	1	221	280	376	655	154	284	28	6	289	79	-4	-0	—	—	+5	0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#1Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#2Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#3Hunter Dozierlast yr '23 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,294 PA	6	2,294	73	19	238	305	421	-23	-45	0.0	0.0
	/162	664	21	5	238	305	421	-6.5	-13.2	0.0	pk7: 0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	524	10	6	196	261	317	-6	-1	-1.6	-0.8
	/162	664	13	7	196	261	317	-7.1	-1.3	-2.0	pk7: 0
#4Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#5Brennan Boeschlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,713 PA	6	1,713	48	22	250	303	400	-17	-35	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	19	9	250	303	400	-6.6	-13.6	-0.4	pk7: -1
#6Domonic Brownlast yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,748 PA	6	1,748	54	23	246	305	405	-19	-39	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	21	9	246	305	405	-7.1	-14.7	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colin Barber (OGILVIE)	25	35	40	45	55	185/249/296	111	265	6	4	33%	7%	49	-1.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Justin Toerner 2022 · AAA	25	39	44→45	45→50	43	191/276/301	110	289	13	8	36%	9%	62	-0.9	187/281/300	113	283	12	11	35%	10%	64	-0.8	162/269/266	104	242	12	12	35%	10%	50	-0.8
✕Jameson Fisher 2019 · AA	25	38→36	41→45	41→45	42	188/262/288	99	281	9	6	34%	8%	52	-1.6	194/259/295	101	293	9	6	34%	7%	52	-1.6	194/254/298	105	283	10	4	33%	7%	48	-1.4
✕Stefan Welch 2014 · AA	25	41→40	44→45	45→40	43	204/270/319	114	276	12	5	30%	7%	63	-0.8	201/274/319	118	286	12	5	32%	7%	65	-0.7	173/256/289	116	251	12	1	34%	8%	50	-1.2
✕Brendon Sanger 2019 · AA	25	42→41	44→45	42→45	45	211/278/324	114	283	12	5	29%	8%	67	-0.5	186/258/297	111	284	13	7	37%	8%	53	-1.5	133/213/228	96	211	13	4	42%	7%	14	-2.9
✕Samir Dueñez 2021 · AAA	25	38→48	43→45	47→50	39	194/237/298	104	254	11	5	28%	5%	43	-2.2	208/261/336	128	304	15	8	35%	6%	63	-0.8	165/221/290	125	239	19	3	39%	6%	30	-0.8
✕Scott Hurst 2021 · AA	25	41→31	40	44→50	41	200/257/288	88	290	8	6	32%	7%	48	-1.9	201/267/295	94	294	9	15	32%	8%	55	-1.4	197/269/290	93	279	10	17	31%	8%	51	-0.9
✕Chantz Mack 2016 · AA	25	43→45	42→45	45	44	209/271/314	105	285	9	6	29%	7%	61	-1.0	215/288/326	111	295	11	5	29%	9%	72	-0.2	212/292/321	109	285	12	3	28%	10%	70	-0.2
✕Shayne Fontana 2022 · AA	25	40	41→45	48→55	46	193/273/296	103	282	8	8	32%	9%	58	-1.2	214/297/319	105	298	10	14	29%	9%	75	-0.0	219/304/318	98	295	10	19	27%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA	26	36→37	44→50	47→55	38	184/248/300	115	271	12	13	35%	6%	49	-1.8	201/261/346	145	293	17	19	36%	6%	66	-0.6	197/258/338	141	284	18	24	36%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Eric Jagielo 2018 · AAA	26	38→36	40→50	42→30	40	186/254/273	87	268	8	2	32%	6%	44	-2.1	190/242/301	111	279	11	4	34%	5%	46	-2.0	167/210/286	119	245	13	1	36%	4%	27	-2.5
✕Brock Lundquist 2021 · AA	25	41→43	44→45	46→45	41	207/269/325	118	287	12	7	31%	7%	64	-0.8	206/275/323	117	358	13	8	42%	8%	66	-0.6	146/233/242	95	291	15	0	51%	8%	30	-0.7
✕Nick Quintana 2023 · AA	25	38→39	43→45	42→45	48	190/274/298	109	258	11	5	30%	10%	60	-1.0	194/275/299	105	281	10	7	32%	9%	61	-1.0	106/214/187	81	163	7	0	37%	8%	7	-1.1
✕Matt Winaker 2021 · A	25	37→38	41→45	46→45	42	183/263/283	100	256	8	7	30%	7%	52	-1.6	195/287/282	87	269	7	6	28%	8%	62	-0.9	175/279/254	79	240	7	3	27%	9%	50	-0.7
✕Daniel Cabrera 2023 · AA	24	40	45	51→45	41	205/253/327	122	266	12	7	28%	6%	56	-1.3	215/278/315	100	279	8	8	24%	8%	64	-0.8	217/300/282	65	283	2	8	22%	10%	64	-0.3
✕Michael Burgess 2014 · AA	25	37→41	46→50	43→45	42	193/248/320	128	249	14	2	29%	6%	53	-1.5	215/258/362	147	280	14	6	28%	5%	68	-0.5	246/280/436	190	301	18	6	24%	4%	97	+1.0
✕Greyson Jenista 2021 · AA	24	40→33	43→50	40→45	40	197/259/302	105	301	10	5	36%	7%	53	-1.5	194/255/375	181	307	26	7	43%	7%	72	-0.2	175/237/368	193	261	30	6	45%	7%	59	-0.6
✕Jackson Cluff 2022 · AA	25	40→29	40→45	49→60	37	191/259/277	86	288	7	12	34%	6%	48	-1.9	177/254/283	106	281	10	16	38%	8%	47	-1.9	181/273/314	133	265	15	28	35%	10%	61	-0.6
✕Preston Beck 2016 · AA	25	41→44	42→45	48→45	48	204/272/313	109	254	9	8	23%	8%	62	-0.9	215/268/319	104	272	9	6	23%	6%	61	-1.0	214/263/314	100	274	9	3	24%	5%	55	-0.9
✕Connor Panas 2019 · AA	26	41→43	46→45	45→40	40	207/267/331	124	274	14	5	29%	6%	65	-0.7	215/279/345	130	279	13	8	27%	6%	73	-0.1	178/266/339	160	218	17	6	26%	8%	63	-0.2
✕Trevor Schwecke 2023 · AAA	25	39	44→45	41→50	39	195/257/308	113	291	11	6	35%	7%	54	-1.4	218/275/332	114	316	10	14	32%	6%	68	-0.5	223/280/335	112	320	9	17	31%	6%	68	-0.3