Nehomar Ochoa Jr.

OF Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 22 R/R 6'4" / 230 lbs A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202419AHOU394.222/.319/.359101736—.161/.242/.254
202520A/ROKHOU105.158/.231/.20011-13—.124/.183/.166
202621A+/A/INTL2 orgs340.271/.353/.482133584—.227/.279/.393
2027PROJMLE22MLBHOU382.184/.243/.30591353-0.5
2028PROJ34% MLB23MLBHOU68.192/.252/.3222260-0.2
2029PROJ46% MLB24MLBHOU130.197/.258/.3334464-0.3
Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
Speed98
ISO93
wOBA77
wRC+64
Chase%51
Whiff%33
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.2, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 95%
CompsMax Wagner (age 22) · Brayan Buelvas (age 22) · Jase Bowen (age 22)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 162 proj PA
wRC+†53
AVG/OBP/SLG.183 / .241 / .303
PA162
HR4
SB6
K%36
BB%6
ISO121
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -9.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-9BATRUN: +0.9 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -1.0 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +3.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+4REPTotal WAR: -0.50-0.5WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
-0.5-0.2-0.3272829
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 50
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT25
scouting grade only
POWER50
scouting grade only
EYE47
scouting grade only
SPEED67
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202318 ROKFCL Astros — 4236 8203 372 10 222317528845 306185 177 359 51 — — — — — —
202318 INTLPerth Heat — 113105 25611 4343 30 238286343629 105338 304 281 76 — — — — — —
202419 AFayetteville Woodpeckers — 394343 7615110 3811611 175 222319359677 137301 2910 308 36 — — — — — —
202520 AFayetteville Woodpeckers — 8374 12101 7261 12 162244216460 54229 318 217 -4 — — — — — —
202520 ROKFCL Astros — 2221 3000 180 00 143182143325 231 365 155 -49 — — — — — —
202621 A+Asheville Tourists — 126118 361216 6410 111 305339576915 271411 335 390 84 — — — — — —
202621 AFayetteville Woodpeckers — 146126 34505 17402 182 270366429794 159354 2712 355 69 — — — — — —
202621 INTLScottsdale Scorpions — 6855 11122 10203 60 200353400753 200273 2915 342 118 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202318 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 4237 6202 2102 10 162244378622 216143 245 244 51 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 394354 571017 2715411 175 161242254497 93252 397 221 36 — — — — — —
202520 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 8376 10101 5361 12 132195184379 53209 436 162 -4 — — — — — —
202520 ROK MLEFCL Astros — 2221 2000 1120 00 9513695232 197 555 96 -49 — — — — — —
202621 A+ MLEAsheville Tourists — 126120 29915 4540 111 242266458724 217351 433 292 84 — — — — — —
202621 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 146131 28404 12542 182 214290336626 122317 378 270 69 — — — — — —
202318 INTL MLE2 teams — 155141 21606 7355 40 149216319535 170147 235 244 51 — — — — — —
202318 INTL RAW2 teams — 155141 33814 7415 40 234294390684 156296 265 302 51 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 394354 571017 2715411 175 161242254497 93256 397 221 36 — — — — — —
202419 A RAWFayetteville Woodpeckers — 394343 7615110 3811611 175 222319359677 137301 2910 308 36 — — — — — —
202520 A MLE2 teams — 10598 12101 5471 12 122173163336 41216 455 148 -14 — — — — — —
202520 A RAW2 teams — 10595 15101 8341 12 158231200431 42230 328 204 -14 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE3 teams — 340312 7016111 201355 353 224282388670 163349 406 280 76 — — — — — —
202621 A RAW3 teams — 340299 8118313 331015 353 271353482835 211362 3010 365 76 — — — — — —
202318 INTL MLE2 teams — 155142 21606 7355 40 148216317533 169143 235 244 51 — — — — — —
202419 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 394353 571017 2715411 175 161242255497 93252 397 221 36 — — — — — —
202520 A MLE2 teams — 10598 12101 5471 12 122173163336 41206 455 148 -14 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE3 teams — 340312 7016111 201355 353 224282388670 163333 406 280 76 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202419 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 394353 571017 2715411 175 161242255497 93252 397 221 36 — — — — — —
202520 A MLE2 teams — 10598 12101 5471 12 122173163336 41206 455 148 -14 — — — — — —
202621 A MLE3 teams — 340312 7016111 201355 353 224282388670 163333 406 280 76 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202722 MLB MLEHOU 0% 382352 651319 231394 132 184243305549 121269 366 247 53 -21 +2 +0 -2 +8 -0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202823 MLB MLEHOU 34% 199183 35715 12702 71 190251320571 130271 356 256 60 -10 +1 +0 -1 +4 -0.6
202924 MLB MLEHOU 46% 281258 511018 18973 92 195256331587 136273 356 263 64 -12 +1 +0 -2 +6 -0.7
202823 MLB CTXHOU 34% 6863 12202 4241 20 192252322575 130276 356 258 60 -3 +0 +0 -0 +1 -0.2
202924 MLB CTXHOU 46% 130120 24504 8451 41 197258333591 135278 356 265 64 -6 +0 +0 -1 +3 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 198183 36706 12692 61 197254333587 137275 356 262 52 -9 +1 +0 -1 +4 -0.5
/ 162G— A+C — 650601 11923020 392277 203 198255336591 138277 356 262 52 -29 +3 +0 -4 +14 -1.7
Career— MLE — 16361495 27355442 9959729 7914 183247309556 126266 366 245 52 -31 +3 +0 -4 +14 -1.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650594 10922217 3923712 316 184248313561 130267 366 245 52 -31 +3 +0 -4 +14 -1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 146 PAwOBA .349 → .270 (−78)K% 27.4% → 37.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.40%÷1.000×1.360——37.26%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.64%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0158.15%
HBP% /PA1.37%—×0.780—×1.0151.08%
Singles /BIP27.91%÷1.000×0.920×0.988×1.01525.76%
Doubles /BIP5.81%÷1.000×0.830×0.988×1.0154.84%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910×0.988×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP5.81%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0154.72%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.

Result: wOBA .349 → .270; ISO .159 → .118; BABIP .354 → .317. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Asheville Tourists · 126 PAwOBA .384 → .292 (−92)K% 32.5% → 42.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA32.54%÷1.000×1.310——42.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.76%÷1.000×0.600—×1.0272.93%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.770—×1.0270.00%
Singles /BIP22.08%÷1.000×0.870×1.009×1.02719.91%
Doubles /BIP15.58%÷1.000×0.780×1.009×1.02712.60%
Triples /BIP1.30%÷1.000×0.850×1.009×1.0271.14%
Home runs /BIP7.79%÷1.000×0.880—×1.0277.04%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.

Result: wOBA .384 → .292; ISO .271 → .209; BABIP .411 → .351. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 83 PAwOBA .215 → .162 (−53)K% 31.3% → 42.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.33%÷0.996×1.360——42.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.43%÷1.072×0.690—×1.0305.59%
HBP% /PA1.20%—×0.780—×1.0300.97%
Singles /BIP20.83%÷0.979×0.920×0.963×1.03019.42%
Doubles /BIP2.08%÷1.035×0.830×0.963×1.0301.66%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.953×0.910×0.963×1.0300.00%
Home runs /BIP2.08%÷1.005×0.800—×1.0301.71%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 91, K 99, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .215 → .162; ISO .054 → .039; BABIP .229 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Astros · 22 PAwOBA .151 → .096 (−56)K% 36.4% → 53.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA36.36%÷0.984×1.440——53.22%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.55%÷0.992×0.620—×0.9952.83%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Singles /BIP23.08%÷0.956×0.820—×0.99519.69%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.982×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.030×0.720—×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.023×0.780—×0.9950.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 91, 2B 96, 3B 106, K 97, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .151 → .096; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .231 → .197. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 394 PAwOBA .302 → .221 (−81)K% 29.4% → 39.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.44%÷1.020×1.360——39.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.64%÷1.024×0.690—×1.0456.79%
HBP% /PA2.79%—×0.780—×1.0452.28%
Singles /BIP22.03%÷1.038×0.920×0.950×1.04519.38%
Doubles /BIP6.61%÷1.132×0.830×0.950×1.0454.81%
Triples /BIP0.44%÷0.900×0.910×0.950×1.0450.44%
Home runs /BIP4.41%÷1.118×0.800—×1.0453.30%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 108, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .302 → .221; ISO .137 → .092; BABIP .301 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ROKFCL Astros · 42 PAwOBA .357 → .244 (−113)K% 16.7% → 22.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA16.67%÷1.058×1.440——22.69%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.14%÷1.007×0.620—×1.0224.50%
HBP% /PA4.76%—×0.720—×1.0223.51%
Singles /BIP10.34%÷1.014×0.820—×1.0228.56%
Doubles /BIP6.90%÷0.939×0.720—×1.0225.41%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.720—×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP10.34%÷1.379×0.780—×1.0225.98%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 176, 1B 103, 2B 88, 3B 80, K 112, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .357 → .244; ISO .306 → .189; BABIP .185 → .143. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .