Nehomar Ochoa Jr.

Nehomar Ochoa Jr.OF Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 21 R/R 6'4" / 230 lbs A HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION272 act + 181 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†48

AVG/OBP/SLG.191 / .245 / .311

PA181

HR4

SB10

K%38

BB%6

BABIP294

ISO120

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 47

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER47

scouting grade only

EYE46

scouting grade only

SPEED62

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	INTL	2 teams	—	155	141	20	6	0	5	7	33	5	4	0	142	209	291	500	149	143	21	5	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	INTL	2 teams	—	155	141	33	8	1	4	7	41	5	4	0	234	294	390	684	156	296	26	5	302	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	394	358	53	8	1	7	23	158	11	17	5	148	222	235	457	87	236	40	6	204	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	394	343	76	15	1	10	38	116	11	17	5	222	319	359	677	137	301	29	10	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	2 teams	—	105	99	12	1	0	1	4	49	1	1	2	121	163	162	325	40	220	47	4	143	-32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A	2 teams	—	105	95	15	1	0	1	8	34	1	1	2	158	231	200	431	42	230	32	8	204	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	21	A	HOU	—	272	252	55	12	1	8	15	112	2	29	3	218	268	369	637	151	348	41	6	276	69	-9	+5	+0	-2	+8	0.1
YTD	21	A	HOU	—	272	244	70	17	1	11	23	81	2	29	3	287	353	500	853	213	381	30	8	371	142	+13	+5	+0	-2	+8	2.4
ROS	21	A	HOU	0%	181	167	32	6	1	4	10	69	2	10	2	191	245	311	556	120	294	38	6	248	48	-11	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
ROS	21	MLB	HOU	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		297	—	—	242	43	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	21	A	HOU	—	272	253	55	12	1	8	15	112	2	29	3	217	268	368	635	150	346	41	6	276	69	-9	+5	+0	-2	+8	0.1
TOT	21	A	HOU	—	453	419	87	18	2	12	25	181	4	39	5	207	259	346	605	138	326	40	6	265	61	-20	+6	+0	-3	+13	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	22	MLB	HOU	34%	490	452	90	17	2	12	29	177	6	17	3	199	257	325	582	126	292	36	6	261	58	-23	+2	+0	-3	+14	-1.0
2028	23	MLB	HOU	48%	503	461	94	18	2	13	31	175	6	16	3	204	263	336	599	132	293	35	6	270	65	-20	+2	+0	-3	+14	-0.7
2029	24	MLB	HOU	53%	507	464	98	19	2	14	32	172	6	16	3	211	271	351	622	140	294	34	6	276	69	-17	+2	+0	-3	+14	-0.4
2030	25	MLB	HOU	55%	510	465	99	19	2	15	33	171	7	15	3	213	275	359	634	146	294	34	6	279	72	-16	+2	+0	-3	+14	-0.3
2031	26	MLB	HOU	56%	517	471	100	19	2	15	34	173	7	15	3	212	275	357	632	144	294	33	7	280	72	-16	+2	+0	-3	+15	-0.3
2032	27	MLB	HOU	55%	516	469	100	19	2	15	35	173	7	14	2	213	278	358	636	145	293	34	7	280	72	-16	+2	+0	-3	+15	-0.3
2027	22	MLB	HOU	34%	168	154	31	6	1	4	10	61	2	6	1	201	259	331	590	130	295	36	6	255	53	-9	+1	+0	-1	+5	-0.4
2028	23	MLB	HOU	48%	244	224	47	9	1	7	15	85	3	8	1	210	269	353	621	143	296	35	6	264	60	-11	+1	+0	-1	+7	-0.4
2029	24	MLB	HOU	53%	267	245	52	10	1	8	17	91	3	8	1	212	272	359	631	147	297	34	6	270	65	-11	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.4
2030	25	MLB	HOU	55%	279	255	55	11	1	8	18	93	4	8	1	216	278	361	639	145	297	33	6	273	67	-10	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.3
2031	26	MLB	HOU	56%	288	263	57	11	1	9	19	96	4	8	1	217	280	369	649	152	297	33	7	274	68	-10	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.3
2032	27	MLB	HOU	55%	284	259	55	11	1	8	19	95	4	8	1	212	277	355	632	143	296	33	7	274	68	-10	+1	+0	-2	+8	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1530	1401	297	58	6	44	98	521	20	46	6	212	273	356	630	144	300	34	6	269	64	-62	+7	+0	-9	+43	-2.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	127	25	3	19	42	221	8	20	3	213	275	361	636	148	302	34	6	269	64	-26	+3	+0	-4	+18	-0.9
Career	—			—	3878	3547	698	132	14	101	238	1350	58	125	26	197	259	327	586	131	282	35	6	261	58	-185	+15	+0	-23	+110	-8.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	117	22	2	17	40	226	10	21	4	197	259	326	585	129	281	35	6	261	58	-31	+3	+0	-4	+18	-1.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	18	ROK	FCL Astros	—	42	36	8	2	0	3	3	7	2	1	0	222	317	528	845	306	185	17	7	359	133	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2023	18	INTL	Perth Heat	—	113	105	25	6	1	1	4	34	3	3	0	238	286	343	629	105	338	30	4	281	73	-3	+1	—	—	+3	0.0
2024	19	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	394	343	76	15	1	10	38	116	11	17	5	222	319	359	677	137	301	29	10	308	94	-3	+1	—	—	+11	1.0
2025	20	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	83	74	12	1	0	1	7	26	1	1	2	162	244	216	460	54	229	31	8	217	24	-7	-1	—	—	+2	-0.5
2025	20	ROK	FCL Astros	—	22	21	3	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	143	182	143	325		231	36	5	155	-23	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	7	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	/162	664	19	6	236	292	400	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	4	1,824	48	53	204	262	335	-11	+0	-2.9	-1.4
	/162	664	17	19	204	262	335	-4.0	+0.0	-1.1	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nehomar Ochoa Jr. (OGILVIE)	21	20→25	42→47	57→62	46	207/259/346	138	326	12	39	40%	6%	61	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jase Bowen 2022 · A	21	37→38	41→50	54→55	34	183/241/274	91	285	9	12	37%	5%	39	-2.5	193/247/307	114	286	13	16	36%	5%	50	-1.7	200/250/342	142	290	17	24	36%	5%	57	-0.7
✕Sean Coyle 2013 · A	21	36→34	45→50	54→50	37	187/249/310	124	268	12	13	34%	6%	52	-1.6	201/258/355	154	293	19	14	37%	6%	68	-0.5	192/251/359	168	278	23	15	39%	7%	64	-0.4
✕George Feliz 2023 · A	20	36	40→50	54→45	36	177/234/268	91	293	8	13	40%	6%	33	-2.9	180/242/287	107	318	12	11	44%	6%	43	-2.2	173/237/300	127	283	16	9	43%	6%	41	-0.8
✕Narciso Crook 2016 · A	21	36→44	41→55	53→50	31	183/215/280	97	279	9	12	37%	4%	27	-3.3	197/243/303	106	298	10	10	36%	5%	46	-2.0	198/275/352	154	301	19	15	38%	7%	71	-0.2
✕Johan Mieses 2016 · A	21	40→33	46→55	52→50	39	205/249/339	134	269	14	14	29%	5%	59	-1.1	183/230/341	158	264	20	4	38%	5%	52	-1.6	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Jose Paniagua 2015 · A	21	38	40→50	50→55	42	189/249/288	99	268	7	12	31%	7%	46	-2.0	198/248/295	97	289	8	8	32%	6%	46	-2.0	179/215/276	97	256	10	2	33%	3%	23	-1.0
✕Kyle Nevin 2023 · A	21	41→38	40→45	52→50	38	198/249/295	97	282	6	10	31%	5%	47	-1.9	217/274/320	103	339	9	10	36%	7%	64	-0.8	212/271/309	97	334	9	12	37%	7%	57	-0.7
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→34	41→45	48→50	40	199/264/295	96	283	9	10	32%	6%	54	-1.4	202/295/301	99	301	9	8	33%	10%	69	-0.4	182/291/276	94	275	9	10	33%	11%	61	-0.6
✕Estee Harris 2006 · A	21	36→31	43→50	50	37	187/233/300	113	268	11	14	34%	5%	41	-2.3	188/238/287	99	315	9	13	41%	6%	40	-2.4	172/224/263	91	318	8	13	46%	6%	25	-1.1
✕Jeffrey Baez 2015 · A	21	41→43	42→50	54→60	36	199/247/305	106	301	9	19	36%	5%	48	-1.9	203/245/305	102	270	10	23	28%	5%	47	-1.9	196/251/342	146	261	19	15	32%	6%	58	-0.6
✕Misael Urbina 2023 · A	21	38→29	42→45	49→50	44	189/258/299	110	261	8	12	30%	8%	53	-1.5	172/250/256	84	262	6	9	34%	9%	38	-2.6	154/242/228	74	235	5	8	33%	9%	26	-2.0
✕Junior Arias 2013 · A	21	36→42	42→50	52→60	34	184/223/285	101	269	10	16	35%	4%	33	-2.9	199/235/299	100	296	10	30	35%	4%	41	-2.3	197/242/323	125	299	16	30	38%	5%	48	-0.8
✕Cole Roederer 2021 · A	21	38→31	43→45	51→50	41	190/257/298	109	284	11	12	35%	8%	52	-1.6	205/269/317	112	309	11	12	35%	7%	62	-0.9	180/254/293	113	270	13	11	36%	8%	49	-1.0
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	39→28	38→45	51→50	41	185/255/266	81	281	5	13	34%	7%	43	-2.2	211/277/317	106	330	9	15	36%	7%	64	-0.8	193/256/311	118	287	12	16	35%	6%	52	-0.7
✕Monte Harrison 2017 · A	21	37→44	38→50	52→60	35	176/245/255	79	302	6	14	41%	6%	36	-2.7	208/262/336	128	338	14	19	41%	5%	63	-0.8	206/263/349	143	355	18	31	44%	5%	64	-0.5
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	43	201/271/299	98	298	8	11	33%	8%	58	-1.2	193/263/287	94	294	6	14	34%	8%	51	-1.7	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	24	-0.9
✕Travis Witherspoon 2010 · A	21	37→47	42→50	56→55	31	185/227/287	102	290	9	10	39%	4%	35	-2.8	211/257/322	111	301	12	19	32%	5%	57	-1.2	209/267/345	136	278	16	25	30%	7%	65	-0.6
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A	20	39→35	40	52→50	40	193/252/284	91	274	7	14	31%	6%	46	-2.0	201/271/278	77	305	4	8	32%	8%	53	-1.5	191/271/264	74	296	3	7	33%	9%	45	-1.3
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	36	38→40	53→60	42	174/248/255	81	275	5	19	36%	8%	37	-2.6	193/258/268	75	281	5	10	31%	7%	44	-2.1	172/238/215	43	239	3	6	27%	7%	20	-1.1
✕Kelvin Diaz 2023 · A	20	37	43→50	56→60	36	185/253/297	112	281	10	19	36%	6%	50	-1.7	173/244/264	91	301	8	23	42%	7%	38	-2.6	140/212/218	79	253	8	29	45%	7%	12	-1.4