Joe Gray Jr. — OGILVIE

Joe Gray Jr.OF Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 26 R/R 6'1" / 214 lbs AA HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†62

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .267 / .319

PA136

HR3

K%29

BB%7

ISO118

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	AZL Brewers	—	98	84	9	3	0	1	11	36	2	6	0	107	227	179	405	71	167	37	11	211	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK	AZL Brewers	—	98	77	14	5	0	2	18	25	2	6	0	182	351	325	675	143	235	26	18	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+	3 teams	—	549	485	87	14	8	16	41	204	17	24	3	179	267	340	607	161	262	37	7	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+	3 teams	—	549	463	106	23	9	21	63	155	17	24	3	229	343	454	796	225	290	28	11	350	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	527	472	58	12	3	13	41	251	7	17	2	123	204	244	447	121	209	48	8	202	13	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	527	462	89	21	4	15	51	177	7	17	2	193	283	353	636	160	267	34	10	284	76	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	2 teams	—	479	449	75	13	1	8	18	180	8	17	8	167	213	254	467	87	253	38	4	205	15	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	2 teams	—	479	439	102	18	1	11	28	121	8	17	8	232	291	353	644	121	293	25	6	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	96	86	9	2	1	0	7	35	1	4	0	105	181	151	332	47	173	36	7	158	-21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	96	81	11	2	1	0	12	27	1	4	0	136	255	185	441	49	200	28	12	214	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	KC	—	136	123	26	5	1	3	10	39	2	3	1	211	281	341	623	130	269	29	7	266	62	-6	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	KC	27%	209	190	40	8	1	5	15	59	2	4	1	211	275	342	617	132	272	28	7	272	67	-8	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.3
2027	27	MLB	KC	27%	56	51	10	2	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	196	268	294	562	98	268	29	7	260	57	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	56	51	10	2	0	1	4	16	1	1	0	196	268	294	562	98	265	29	7	260	57	-3	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	116	23	0	12	46	186	12	12	0	196	268	296	563	100	264	29	7	260	57	-31	+2	+0	-4	+18	-1.5
Career	—			—	2094	1889	304	57	15	46	143	804	39	75	15	161	235	280	515	119	243	38	7	229	33	-158	+9	+0	-13	+59	-10.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	95	18	5	14	44	250	12	23	5	162	235	282	517	119	246	38	7	229	33	-49	+3	+0	-4	+18	-3.3

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	AZL Brewers	—	98	77	14	5	0	2	18	25	2	6	0	182	351	325	675	143	235	26	18	316	100	-0	+1	—	—	+3	0.4
2021	21	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	248	215	47	7	2	8	20	70	9	11	3	219	311	381	693	163	277	28	8	309	94	-2	+1	—	—	+7	0.7
2021	21	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	231	190	55	15	7	12	33	61	6	12	0	289	410	632	1.042	342	361	26	14	441	196	+25	+2	—	—	+7	3.5
2021	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	70	58	4	1	0	1	10	24	2	1	0	69	229	138	367	69	91	34	14	195	7	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2022	22	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	527	462	89	21	4	15	51	177	7	17	2	193	283	353	636	160	267	34	10	284	76	-15	+3	—	—	+15	0.3
2023	23	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	39	37	2	1	0	0	1	17	1	1	0	54	103	81	184	27	100	44	3	93	-71	-8	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2023	23	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	440	402	100	17	1	11	27	104	7	16	8	249	307	378	685	129	306	24	6	306	92	-4	+0	—	—	+12	0.9
2024	24	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	96	81	11	2	1	0	12	27	1	4	0	136	255	185	441	49	200	28	12	214	22	-8	+1	—	—	+3	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joe Gray Jr. (OGILVIE)	26	—	—	—	—	202/267/319	117	269	3	3	29%	7%	62	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA	26	35→37	45→50	48→50	39	184/243/301	118	247	14	10	31%	6%	47	-1.9	204/251/338	134	276	16	10	31%	5%	59	-1.1	203/253/332	129	265	15	10	29%	5%	56	-0.7
✕Daniel Amaral 2023 · AA	26	41	47→40	48→55	41	209/268/345	136	287	15	14	32%	7%	69	-0.4	232/305/339	107	304	9	27	25%	8%	82	+0.5	243/325/332	89	317	5	48	23%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA	26	39	43→45	44→45	46	197/280/304	107	271	12	5	30%	8%	64	-0.8	229/320/373	144	297	15	10	26%	11%	98	+1.6	224/323/376	152	290	16	11	26%	12%	98	+0.8
✕Jimmy Govern 2023 · AAA	26	39	47→50	49→45	39	203/247/337	133	251	15	8	26%	4%	57	-1.2	206/258/325	119	258	13	9	25%	5%	59	-1.1	184/241/285	100	222	12	6	23%	4%	38	-1.0
✕Cory Vaughn 2015 · AAA	26	38→41	44→45	54→50	40	191/262/305	114	272	13	15	33%	7%	56	-1.3	193/257/300	107	289	10	12	35%	7%	53	-1.5	149/216/240	91	232	8	9	38%	7%	17	-1.5
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	39→38	45→50	53→55	42	195/273/320	125	283	13	16	34%	8%	65	-0.7	201/277/315	114	267	11	16	27%	8%	65	-0.7	164/253/261	97	214	9	20	27%	8%	38	-1.1
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA	26	36	39→50	50→55	40	177/243/264	88	262	6	14	33%	6%	37	-2.6	198/276/337	139	318	16	16	40%	8%	71	-0.3	186/272/335	149	306	19	19	42%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Quincy Latimore 2015 · AA	26	42→41	46→50	47→50	41	216/269/342	126	284	15	13	29%	6%	68	-0.5	206/254/338	132	277	15	8	30%	6%	60	-1.0	194/241/323	129	259	15	5	31%	5%	47	-1.4
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA	25	33→28	45	49→50	42	177/246/290	113	244	14	18	33%	7%	46	-2.0	206/279/324	118	280	13	12	29%	9%	68	-0.5	189/267/300	111	249	11	7	27%	9%	56	-0.5
✕Cody Puckett 2013 · AAA	26	37→39	47→50	50	39	195/247/328	133	260	15	11	31%	6%	55	-1.4	212/254/352	140	250	18	10	23%	5%	65	-0.7	208/243/357	149	220	23	8	19%	4%	58	-0.8
✕Kyle Datres 2022 · A	26	39→40	45→50	54→55	44	194/276/317	123	270	12	18	31%	8%	66	-0.6	209/287/354	145	287	18	23	32%	8%	79	+0.3	198/279/346	148	268	20	26	32%	8%	71	-0.1
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA	26	36→37	44→50	47→55	38	184/248/300	115	271	12	13	35%	6%	49	-1.8	201/261/346	145	293	17	19	36%	6%	66	-0.6	197/258/338	141	284	18	24	36%	6%	60	-0.8
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA	26	37→39	44→50	45→50	38	185/252/306	121	279	11	10	36%	6%	53	-1.5	189/263/296	107	295	8	13	36%	7%	54	-1.4	160/248/262	103	254	7	16	37%	8%	40	-1.1
✕Nick Vickerson 2014 · A	25	36	42→40	49→50	47	183/268/285	102	256	10	13	31%	9%	54	-1.4	203/302/300	97	289	8	11	29%	11%	72	-0.2	190/312/271	81	272	7	11	29%	13%	66	-0.4
✕Nick Podkul 2022 · AA	25	38	45→50	51→50	45	194/270/315	121	262	12	11	30%	8%	63	-0.9	214/301/367	153	292	18	6	31%	9%	89	+1.0	208/303/367	159	284	21	3	32%	10%	85	+0.3
✕Jay Brossman 2011 · AA	26	37→36	45	44→45	40	193/245/318	125	242	13	7	26%	5%	52	-1.6	210/257/336	126	284	14	11	30%	5%	61	-1.0	192/227/334	142	252	20	17	33%	4%	45	-0.4
✕Coco Montes 2023 · AAA	26	39→43	47→50	51→50	41	200/265/338	138	281	14	10	33%	7%	66	-0.6	219/284/347	128	316	13	10	33%	8%	76	+0.0	220/284/337	117	317	11	9	32%	7%	71	-0.2
✕Jordan Tarsovich 2017 · AA	26	40	45	46→50	47	201/275/317	116	256	13	9	26%	8%	65	-0.7	194/265/291	97	267	8	12	29%	8%	53	-1.5	168/244/247	79	236	5	15	29%	8%	31	-2.0
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA	26	38	46→50	47→30	44	198/261/319	121	270	14	4	32%	8%	59	-1.1	219/286/363	144	306	18	4	32%	8%	81	+0.4	211/283/356	145	291	19	1	33%	9%	75	-0.0
✕McCarthy Tatum 2023 · AA	27	36→24	45→55	49→50	35	185/239/305	121	279	13	9	38%	5%	46	-2.0	212/273/327	115	298	10	10	31%	5%	66	-0.6	207/279/300	93	287	6	9	28%	4%	59	-0.3