Joe Gray Jr. — OGILVIE

Joe Gray Jr.OF Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 26 R/R 6'1" / 214 lbs AA HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 136 proj PA

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .271 / .323

PA11

HR0

K%28

BB%7

ISO119

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2018	18	ROK	AZL Brewers	—	98	77	14	5	0	2	18	25	2	6	0	182	351	325	675	143	235	26	18	316	100	-0	+1	—	—	+2	0.3
2021	21	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	248	215	47	7	2	8	20	70	9	11	3	219	311	381	693	163	277	28	8	309	95	-1	+1	—	—	+5	0.5
2021	21	A	Carolina Mudcats	—	231	190	55	15	7	12	33	61	6	12	0	289	410	632	1.042	342	361	26	14	441	185	+23	+2	—	—	+5	3.1
2021	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	70	58	4	1	0	1	10	24	2	1	0	69	229	138	367	69	91	34	14	195	18	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2022	22	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	527	462	89	21	4	15	51	177	7	17	2	193	283	353	636	160	267	34	10	284	78	-14	+3	—	—	+11	0.0
2023	23	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	—	39	37	2	1	0	0	1	17	1	1	0	54	103	81	184	27	100	44	3	93	-51	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2023	23	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	440	402	100	17	1	11	27	104	7	16	8	249	307	378	685	129	306	24	6	306	93	-4	+0	—	—	+10	0.6
2024	24	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	96	81	11	2	1	0	12	27	1	4	0	136	255	185	441	49	200	28	12	214	31	-8	+1	—	—	+2	-0.5
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	—	98	84	9	3	0	1	11	36	2	6	0	107	227	179	405	71	175	37	11	211	29	-8	+1	—	—	+2	-0.5
2021	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	248	221	37	5	2	5	14	94	9	11	3	167	246	276	522	109	235	38	6	227	40	-18	+1	—	—	+5	-1.2
2021	21	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	—	231	201	42	10	5	9	22	83	6	12	0	209	306	443	748	234	285	36	10	319	102	+1	+2	—	—	+5	0.8
2022	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	527	475	61	13	3	12	38	245	7	17	2	128	204	244	448	116	213	46	7	202	23	-48	+3	—	—	+11	-3.5
2023	23	AA MLE	Biloxi Shuckers	—	39	37	2	1	0	0	1	22	1	1	0	54	103	81	184	27	100	56	3	69	-67	-8	+0	—	—	+1	-0.7
2023	23	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	440	411	77	13	1	8	18	147	7	16	8	187	234	282	516	95	256	33	4	224	38	-33	+0	—	—	+10	-2.4
2024	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	96	85	10	2	1	0	8	33	1	4	0	118	202	165	367	47	176	34	8	167	-1	-12	+1	—	—	+2	-0.9
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	—	98	84	9	3	0	1	11	36	2	6	0	107	227	179	405	71	167	37	11	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers	—	98	77	14	5	0	2	18	25	2	6	0	182	351	325	675	143	235	26	18	316	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	549	485	89	16	8	17	41	204	17	24	3	184	271	355	625	171	267	37	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	549	463	106	23	9	21	63	155	17	24	3	229	343	454	796	225	290	28	11	350	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	527	475	61	13	3	12	38	245	7	17	2	128	204	244	448	116	218	46	7	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	527	462	89	21	4	15	51	177	7	17	2	193	283	353	636	160	267	34	10	284	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	479	448	77	13	1	8	19	169	8	17	8	172	219	259	478	87	251	35	4	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	479	439	102	18	1	11	28	121	8	17	8	232	291	353	644	121	293	25	6	288	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	96	85	10	2	1	0	8	33	1	4	0	118	202	165	367	47	189	34	8	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	96	81	11	2	1	0	12	27	1	4	0	136	255	185	441	49	200	28	12	214	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	18	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	—	98	85	9	3	0	1	11	36	2	6	0	106	227	176	403	71	175	37	11	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	549	486	89	16	8	17	41	204	17	24	3	183	271	354	625	171	259	37	7	271	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	—	527	477	61	13	3	12	38	245	7	17	2	128	204	243	447	115	213	46	7	202	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	479	449	77	13	1	8	19	169	8	17	8	171	219	258	477	87	243	35	4	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	96	87	10	2	1	0	8	33	1	4	0	115	202	161	363	46	176	34	8	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	479	449	77	13	1	8	19	169	8	17	8	171	219	258	477	87	243	35	4	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	—	96	87	10	2	1	0	8	33	1	4	0	115	202	161	363	46	176	34	8	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	26	MLB MLE	KC	2%	11	10	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	100	182	100	282		269	27	9	270	69	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	KC	27%	209	190	41	8	1	5	15	57	2	4	1	216	280	347	628	132	271	27	7	275	72	-7	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
2027	27	MLB CTX	KC	27%	56	51	10	2	0	1	4	15	1	1	0	196	268	294	562	98	268	27	7	262	72	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	56	51	10	2	0	1	4	15	1	1	0	196	268	294	562	98	257	27	7	262	42	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	592	116	23	0	12	46	174	12	12	0	196	268	296	563	100	256	27	7	262	42	-21	+2	+0	-4	+14	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	1969	1777	288	55	14	43	133	747	37	72	14	162	235	281	517	119	243	38	7	231	42	-7	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	587	95	18	5	14	44	247	12	24	5	162	235	281	516	119	243	38	7	231	42	-21	+1	+0	-4	+14	-1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joe Gray Jr. (OGILVIE)	26	—	—	—	—	205/271/323	118	269	3	3	28%	7%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rylan Bannon 2022 · AAA	26	34→44	47→50	50	47	182/256/313	131	221	15	11	26%	8%	61	-1.5	197/286/336	139	259	16	13	29%	10%	78	-0.3	191/289/327	136	253	16	12	29%	11%	75	-0.4
✕Taylor Featherston 2016 · MLB	26	42→47	46→50	50	39	212/257/343	130	272	13	12	27%	4%	67	-1.1	198/251/312	114	276	11	11	31%	5%	58	-1.7	184/241/291	108	266	11	12	34%	5%	48	-1.6
✕Cory Vaughn 2015 · AAA	26	38→42	44→45	54→50	42	193/265/307	114	268	12	15	32%	7%	63	-1.4	194/259/303	109	286	10	12	34%	7%	59	-1.6	153/220/251	99	233	9	9	37%	7%	30	-1.4
✕Daniel Amaral 2023 · AA	26	41	45→40	48→55	42	208/268/333	125	282	13	14	30%	7%	70	-0.9	232/303/339	107	302	9	27	24%	8%	84	+0.1	241/321/332	91	311	6	48	22%	9%	86	+0.1
✕Jimmy Govern 2023 · AAA	26	40	45→50	49→45	39	205/249/331	126	254	13	8	25%	4%	61	-1.5	209/262/319	110	263	11	9	24%	5%	63	-1.3	191/247/278	87	234	9	6	22%	4%	45	-1.1
✕Quincy Latimore 2015 · AA	26	44→43	45→50	47→50	42	221/274/339	118	284	13	13	27%	6%	72	-0.7	211/261/343	132	277	15	8	28%	6%	69	-0.9	201/250/331	131	262	15	5	29%	6%	59	-1.3
✕Nick Podkul 2023 · AAA	26	40	45→50	48→50	46	199/285/316	117	280	13	9	32%	9%	73	-0.6	212/301/356	144	295	17	5	32%	9%	88	+0.4	207/301/369	163	277	20	1	31%	10%	87	+0.2
✕Michael Helman 2022 · A	26	38→41	49→50	52→55	45	202/261/351	149	244	17	14	25%	7%	71	-0.8	218/278/362	144	268	17	24	25%	7%	80	-0.2	209/267/365	156	250	18	20	24%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Ray Sadler 2007 · AAA	26	39→43	47→55	46→50	40	204/255/338	134	273	15	11	31%	6%	65	-1.2	209/262/363	154	264	19	9	28%	6%	74	-0.5	200/253/352	152	246	19	8	27%	5%	67	-0.9
✕Jason Romano 2005 · MLB	26	42	44→45	53→50	44	212/267/323	112	267	12	15	25%	7%	66	-1.1	232/282/350	118	283	11	9	21%	6%	78	-0.3	255/296/373	118	310	9	9	20%	5%	86	+0.1
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA	26	35→36	46→50	48→50	39	184/244/306	122	245	15	10	31%	6%	55	-2.0	208/254/339	131	279	15	10	30%	5%	65	-1.2	211/259/339	128	274	14	10	28%	5%	64	-0.6
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	39→38	45→50	53→55	44	198/278/323	125	278	13	16	32%	8%	72	-0.7	198/274/306	108	267	10	16	28%	8%	65	-1.2	157/242/244	87	210	7	20	27%	8%	37	-1.4
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA	26	40	43→45	44→45	46	198/281/301	102	271	11	5	30%	8%	68	-1.0	227/321/361	134	295	13	10	25%	11%	96	+1.0	222/324/360	138	289	14	11	26%	12%	95	+0.5
✕Cody Puckett 2013 · AAA	26	38→40	46→50	50	40	198/250/327	129	260	14	11	30%	6%	61	-1.5	212/256/344	132	247	16	10	22%	5%	67	-1.1	208/243/344	136	220	20	8	17%	4%	60	-1.0
✕Jimmy Herron 2022 · AA	26	41→45	40→45	50→55	47	201/274/294	93	268	7	15	27%	8%	63	-1.4	221/296/354	133	273	14	21	24%	8%	85	+0.2	219/295/351	133	265	15	24	23%	8%	81	-0.0
✕Weston Wilson 2021 · AA	26	39→43	47→55	49→55	43	204/262/334	130	263	15	10	28%	7%	68	-1.0	212/275/360	148	284	19	18	31%	8%	78	-0.3	207/286/372	166	264	22	25	30%	9%	84	+0.1
✕J.J. Davis 2005 · MLB	26	45	45→50	50→45	48	222/293/343	122	286	13	13	26%	9%	81	-0.1	225/287/382	157	304	20	11	31%	7%	88	+0.4	205/264/359	154	277	22	9	34%	6%	73	-0.3
✕Eliseo Aldazaba 2017 · AAA	26	44→46	47→50	47→50	41	223/275/358	135	279	16	13	26%	5%	78	-0.3	212/276/345	133	268	13	13	25%	7%	76	-0.4	183/258/317	134	223	13	12	24%	8%	62	-0.9
✕Denis Phipps 2011 · AA	26	41→51	43→50	47→50	39	206/249/319	113	271	10	12	28%	5%	58	-1.7	226/273/350	124	310	11	11	29%	6%	74	-0.5	226/276/347	122	309	11	11	29%	6%	72	-0.5
✕Aaron Schunk 2023 · AA	26	40→44	43→45	48→50	37	203/250/316	113	283	11	9	32%	5%	58	-1.7	218/263/335	117	297	11	10	29%	5%	68	-1.0	218/263/335	116	292	11	10	28%	5%	65	-0.9