Joe Gray Jr. — OGILVIE

Joe Gray Jr.OF Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 26 R/R 6'1" / 214 lbs AA HR -5%BB +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .256 / .304

PA136

HR3

K%32

BB%7

MLB%2%

trajectory · 10 yrs

-0.4peak

2026

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.2M	—	—	—
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$0.4M	—	—	—
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$0.6M	—	—	—
Totals		$-11M		$-33M	-$22M

Underwater contract
Projected production over the remaining contract is worth -$22M less than the salary owed. Most often this reflects an aging-curve fade that was visible at signing — the team paid a premium for the early years.

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	AZL Brewers	98	84	9	3	0	1	11	36	2	6	0	.107	.227	.179	.405	.071	.167	37	11	.211	20	-9	+1	+0	-1	+3	-0.6
2021	21	A+	3 teams	549	486	91	16	8	18	40	202	17	24	3	.187	.273	.364	.637	.177	.268	37	7	.278	71	-18	+4	+0	-3	+16	-0.2
2022	22	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	527	474	65	14	4	12	39	231	7	17	2	.137	.213	.259	.473	.122	.223	44	7	.209	18	-49	+3	+0	-3	+15	-3.5
2023	23	A+	2 teams	479	448	79	13	1	8	19	164	8	17	8	.176	.223	.263	.487	.087	.254	34	4	.214	22	-42	+0	+0	-3	+14	-3.2
2024	24	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	96	85	9	2	1	0	8	36	1	4	0	.106	.191	.153	.344	.047	.180	38	8	.161	-19	-13	+1	+0	-1	+3	-1.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	KC	136	124	25	5	1	3	9	44	2	3	1	.202	.267	.331	.597	.129	.271	32	7	.255	54	-7	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	27	MLB 11%	KC	209	190	37	7	1	4	15	65	2	4	1	.195	.261	.305	.566	.111	.273	31	7	.262	59	-10	+0	+0	-1	+6	-0.5
2028	28	MLB 22%	KC	276	251	51	10	1	6	20	85	3	5	1	.203	.270	.323	.593	.120	.275	31	7	.266	62	-12	+1	-1	-2	+8	-0.6
2029	29	MLB 34%	KC	310	280	57	11	1	7	23	95	4	5	1	.204	.274	.325	.599	.121	.275	31	7	.267	62	-13	+1	-1	-2	+9	-0.7
2030	30	MLB 44%	KC	333	301	60	12	1	7	25	103	4	5	1	.199	.270	.316	.585	.116	.274	31	8	.265	61	-15	+1	-2	-2	+9	-0.9
2031	31	MLB 58%	KC	330	299	59	11	1	7	24	103	4	3	1	.197	.266	.311	.577	.114	.272	31	7	.261	58	-16	+0	-3	-2	+9	-1.1
2032	32	MLB 76%	KC	319	290	56	11	1	6	23	101	3	2	0	.193	.259	.300	.559	.107	.271	32	7	.257	55	-16	+0	-4	-2	+9	-1.3
2033	33	MLB 93%	KC	294	268	51	10	1	5	21	96	3	1	0	.190	.257	.291	.548	.101	.269	33	7	.251	51	-16	+0	-4	-2	+8	-1.4
2034	34	MLB	KC	254	231	43	8	1	4	18	85	3	0	0	.186	.254	.281	.535	.095	.267	33	7	.245	46	-16	+0	-5	-2	+7	-1.5
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			4210	3811	692	133	23	88	295	1446	63	96	19	.182	.252	.298	.550	.116	.262	34	7	.247	47	-251	+12	-20	-25	+119	-16.9
/ 162G	—			650	588	108	21	4	14	46	223	10	15	3	.184	.255	.304	.559	.121	.264	34	7	.247	47	-39	+2	-3	-4	+18	-2.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2018	18	ROK	AZL Brewers	98	77	14	5	0	2	18	25	2	6	0	.182	.351	.325	.675	.143	.235	26	18	.316	100	-0	+1	—	—	+3	0.4
2021	21	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	248	215	47	7	2	8	20	70	9	11	3	.219	.311	.381	.693	.163	.277	28	8	.309	94	-2	+1	—	—	+7	0.7
2021	21	A	Carolina Mudcats	231	190	55	15	7	12	33	61	6	12	0	.289	.410	.632	1.042	.342	.361	26	14	.441	196	+25	+2	—	—	+7	3.5
2021	21	INTL	Salt River Rafters	70	58	4	1	0	1	10	24	2	1	0	.069	.229	.138	.367	.069	.091	34	14	.195	7	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2022	22	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	527	462	89	21	4	15	51	177	7	17	2	.193	.283	.353	.636	.160	.267	34	10	.284	76	-15	+3	—	—	+15	0.3
2023	23	AA	Biloxi Shuckers	39	37	2	1	0	0	1	17	1	1	0	.054	.103	.081	.184	.027	.100	44	3	.093	-71	-8	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2023	23	A+	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	440	402	100	17	1	11	27	104	7	16	8	.249	.307	.378	.685	.129	.306	24	6	.306	92	-4	+0	—	—	+12	0.9
2024	24	AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	96	81	11	2	1	0	12	27	1	4	0	.136	.255	.185	.441	.049	.200	28	12	.214	22	-8	+1	—	—	+3	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Joe Gray Jr. (OGILVIE)	26	—	—	—	—	.192/.256/.304	.112	.271	3	3	32%	7%	54	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Camden Duzenack 2021 · AA	26	35→37	45→50	47→50	39	.184/.244/.304	.120	.244	14	10	30%	6%	48	-1.9	.203/.249/.336	.133	.277	16	10	32%	5%	59	-1.1	.205/.254/.334	.129	.270	15	10	29%	5%	57	-0.6
✕Daniel Amaral 2023 · AA	26	41	47→40	48→55	41	.209/.268/.341	.133	.288	15	14	32%	7%	68	-0.5	.231/.302/.338	.107	.302	9	28	25%	8%	81	+0.4	.241/.322/.332	.091	.312	6	48	22%	9%	85	+0.3
✕Cory Vaughn 2015 · AAA	26	38→40	45	54→50	42	.196/.270/.318	.122	.273	13	15	32%	7%	63	-0.8	.193/.258/.302	.109	.284	11	12	34%	7%	53	-1.5	.153/.220/.254	.100	.233	9	9	36%	7%	22	-1.3
✕Grae Kessinger 2023 · AA	25	34→29	46→45	49→50	44	.182/.254/.300	.117	.244	15	18	31%	8%	52	-1.6	.203/.279/.317	.114	.274	13	12	29%	9%	66	-0.6	.204/.281/.310	.106	.271	11	8	28%	9%	64	-0.4
✕Mark Contreras 2021 · AA	26	36→38	44→50	47→55	38	.183/.247/.298	.115	.269	11	13	35%	6%	48	-1.9	.201/.262/.346	.145	.292	17	19	36%	6%	66	-0.6	.199/.260/.339	.140	.286	17	24	35%	6%	61	-0.7
✕Chris Sharpe 2022 · AAA	26	38→39	45	45→50	39	.191/.258/.315	.124	.278	12	11	34%	6%	57	-1.2	.189/.266/.294	.105	.293	8	13	36%	8%	56	-1.3	.164/.257/.268	.103	.258	7	16	36%	9%	46	-1.0
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA	26	37	39→45	50→55	40	.183/.248/.270	.087	.268	6	14	32%	6%	40	-2.4	.194/.274/.324	.130	.304	14	16	38%	9%	67	-0.5	.179/.266/.318	.140	.290	17	19	41%	9%	60	-0.7
✕Toby Welk 2022 · AA	25	39→33	44→45	48→45	42	.196/.263/.315	.118	.271	12	9	31%	7%	59	-1.1	.204/.262/.318	.114	.295	12	7	33%	7%	59	-1.1	.195/.242/.316	.121	.282	13	0	35%	5%	50	-0.5
✕Tyler Marincov 2018 · AA	26	40→41	45→50	44→50	38	.204/.257/.326	.122	.289	13	9	33%	6%	59	-1.1	.196/.253/.340	.144	.300	19	10	39%	6%	62	-0.9	.165/.222/.300	.135	.246	20	14	41%	7%	37	-1.6
✕Aaron Schunk 2023 · AA	26	40→43	44→45	48→50	36	.203/.250/.319	.116	.288	12	9	33%	5%	53	-1.5	.216/.261/.332	.116	.297	11	10	30%	5%	62	-0.9	.216/.262/.331	.115	.289	11	10	28%	5%	58	-0.8
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA	26	38	42→45	43→45	44	.190/.273/.285	.095	.272	10	5	32%	8%	56	-1.3	.226/.321/.370	.144	.293	15	10	26%	11%	98	+1.6	.221/.324/.370	.149	.286	16	11	27%	12%	97	+0.8
✕Jay Brossman 2011 · AA	26	38→37	45	45	41	.194/.248/.319	.124	.243	13	8	26%	5%	53	-1.5	.206/.253/.325	.119	.279	13	10	30%	5%	56	-1.3	.187/.224/.312	.125	.250	16	17	32%	5%	37	-0.4
✕Troy Stokes Jr. 2021 · AAA	25	39→38	46→50	54→55	43	.195/.275/.328	.133	.280	14	16	34%	8%	68	-0.5	.196/.270/.305	.109	.263	10	17	28%	8%	59	-1.1	.156/.241/.247	.091	.208	8	20	27%	8%	30	-1.4
✕McCarthy Tatum 2023 · AA	27	36→25	45→55	48→50	35	.184/.240/.304	.120	.279	13	9	38%	5%	46	-2.0	.211/.271/.326	.115	.298	10	10	31%	5%	66	-0.6	.215/.285/.308	.094	.297	6	9	28%	4%	64	-0.2
✕Caleb Hamilton 2021 · AAA	26	38	41→45	45	42	.191/.251/.292	.101	.267	9	8	31%	7%	47	-1.9	.183/.267/.313	.130	.280	16	7	37%	10%	61	-1.0	.145/.237/.274	.129	.209	19	3	39%	10%	37	-0.8
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA	26	38	44→45	47→30	44	.195/.260/.302	.108	.268	12	4	31%	8%	54	-1.4	.216/.284/.346	.130	.306	15	4	32%	9%	76	+0.0	.206/.279/.334	.128	.290	16	1	33%	9%	68	-0.3
✕Sean Coyle 2017 · AAA	25	36	45→50	48→50	37	.186/.248/.306	.120	.290	14	12	39%	7%	50	-1.7	.185/.245/.287	.102	.286	9	10	36%	7%	43	-2.2	.153/.212/.244	.092	.224	3	6	32%	7%	14	-1.0
✕Jackson Cluff 2023 · AA	26	36→29	40→45	48→55	36	.179/.243/.270	.091	.285	8	11	38%	6%	39	-2.5	.186/.268/.305	.119	.285	12	20	36%	9%	59	-1.1	.181/.273/.314	.132	.266	14	28	35%	10%	61	-0.6
✕Michael O'Neill 2018 · AA	26	41→40	43→45	52→55	36	.205/.252/.312	.108	.296	10	18	34%	5%	53	-1.5	.211/.261/.312	.101	.314	10	21	34%	5%	56	-1.3	.207/.257/.292	.085	.310	9	23	35%	5%	46	-1.5
✕Bryan Arias 2023 · AA	26	38	43→45	51→50	40	.188/.263/.297	.108	.296	12	13	38%	8%	55	-1.4	.201/.277/.307	.106	.299	10	14	34%	8%	63	-0.9	.196/.298/.302	.106	.259	11	24	26%	10%	67	-0.1

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)