Alexander Frias

OF Palm Beach Cardinals
Age 19 L/R 6'2" / 177 lbs A HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2037
OGV OFP35OGV rank#632ETA2029MLB%4%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202517ROKDSL Brewers G…112.316/.414/.4001749—.192/.279/.222
202618A/ROK2 orgs373.314/.406/.500102599—.256/.328/.399
2027PROJMLE19MLBSTL8.216/.281/.3410076-0.0
2028PROJ36% MLB20MLBSTL124.223/.289/.3623384-0.0
2029PROJ49% MLB21MLBSTL200.228/.296/.38164920.1
Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$4M+2
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A
Speed91
ISO72
K%70
Whiff%46
wOBA44
Z-Con%43
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 24, comp-based) · star 9% · didn't stick 68%
CompsJosue Briceño (age 19) · Nomar Mazara (age 19) · John Drennen (age 19)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†76
AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .281 / .341
PA8
HR0
K%25
BB%12
BABIP281
ISO126
MLB%4%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: -0.3 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: -1.3 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +4.5 runs (Replacement-level credit)+5REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
0.00.81.60.10.30.50.70.80.90.80.727282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus
Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2031
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2036
First FA Year   2037
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.5$1M+$0.9M
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.7$2M+$1M
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.8$2M+$2M
2034Arb-1$4M+0.9$2M+$0.2M
2035Arb-2$6M+0.8$2M+$0.0M (cut)
2036Arb-3$8M+0.7$1M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $7M $11M +$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202517 ROKDSL Brewers Gold — 11295 30501 14212 73 316414400814 84392 1912 370 49 — — — — — —
202618 APalm Beach Cardinals — 236204 49836 26565 133 240340397737 157301 2411 332 69 — — — — — —
202618 ROKACL Brewers — 137118 521224 16213 126 4415186781.196 237516 1512 519 150 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202517 ROK MLEDSL Brewers Gold — 11299 19300 10272 73 192279222502 30259 249 241 49 — — — — — —
202618 A MLEPalm Beach Cardinals — 236212 44735 18765 133 208285340625 132288 328 270 69 — — — — — —
202618 ROK MLEACL Brewers — 137124 42913 10303 126 339401500901 161428 227 390 150 — — — — — —
202517 ROK MLEDSL Brewers Gold — 11299 19300 10272 73 192279222502 30260 249 241 49 — — — — — —
202517 ROK RAWDSL Brewers Gold — 11295 30501 14212 73 316414400814 84392 1912 370 49 — — — — — —
202618 A MLE2 teams — 373336 851548 281078 259 253325393718 140347 298 314 99 — — — — — —
202618 A RAW2 teams — 373322 10120510 42778 259 314406500906 186386 2111 401 99 — — — — — —
202517 ROK MLEDSL Brewers Gold — 11299 19300 10272 73 192279222502 30259 249 241 49 — — — — — —
202618 A MLE2 teams — 373334 851548 281078 259 254325395720 141339 298 314 99 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202517 ROK MLEDSL Brewers Gold — 11299 19300 10272 73 192279222502 30259 249 241 49 — — — — — —
202618 A MLE2 teams — 373334 851548 281078 259 254325395720 141339 298 314 99 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202719 MLB MLESTL 4% 483441 9517311 331326 103 216281345625 129280 277 280 76 -14 +1 -1 -3 +10 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202719 MLB CTXSTL 4% 87 1000 120 00 216281341622 125281 2512 279 76 -0 +0 -0 -0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202820 MLB MLESTL 36% 345313 691229 24935 72 223289367656 144282 277 293 84 -6 +1 -0 -2 +7 -0.1
202921 MLB MLESTL 49% 408369 8515313 301076 92 229297387683 158284 267 304 92 -4 +1 -1 -2 +9 0.3
203022 MLB MLESTL 55% 455412 9717316 341176 93 234302402704 168286 267 312 97 -1 +1 -1 -3 +10 0.6
203123 MLB MLESTL 57% 505455 10819318 381297 103 237306413719 176287 268 318 101 +1 +1 -0 -3 +11 0.9
203224 MLB MLESTL 57% 562506 12221421 431428 113 240309421730 181289 258 322 104 +3 +1 -0 -3 +12 1.3
203325 MLB MLESTL 57% 589531 12922423 451488 113 241310427737 185289 258 325 106 +4 +1 +0 -4 +13 1.5
203426 MLB MLESTL 57% 597538 13122424 461508 113 242311430741 188289 258 326 107 +5 +1 +0 -4 +13 1.6
203527 MLB MLESTL 55% 596537 13022424 461518 113 241310427737 186288 258 325 106 +4 +1 +0 -4 +13 1.5
203628 MLB MLESTL 55% 585527 12521323 451508 103 239308422730 183287 268 322 104 +3 +1 -0 -4 +13 1.3
203729 MLB MLESTL 53% 566511 12120322 431467 93 236305416721 180285 268 318 102 +1 +1 -1 -3 +12 1.0
203830 MLB MLESTL 57% 552498 11720321 421447 83 233301408709 175283 268 314 98 -1 +0 -2 -3 +12 0.6
203931 MLB MLESTL 60% 534483 11119319 401426 65 229296398694 169280 277 308 94 -4 -1 -3 -3 +12 0.1
204032 MLB MLESTL 61% 511463 10517318 371386 58 224290385675 161276 277 300 89 -7 -2 -3 -3 +11 -0.4
202820 MLB CTXSTL 36% 124112 25513 9332 31 223289362651 139284 277 291 84 -2 +0 -0 -1 +3 -0.0
202921 MLB CTXSTL 49% 200180 42816 15533 41 228296381677 152286 268 301 92 -2 +0 -0 -1 +4 0.1
203022 MLB CTXSTL 55% 248224 52928 18644 51 233301395696 162287 267 309 97 -1 +1 -0 -1 +5 0.3
203123 MLB CTXSTL 57% 286258 6211210 22734 62 236305406711 169289 268 315 101 +0 +0 -0 -2 +6 0.5
203224 MLB CTXSTL 57% 318287 6812211 24804 62 239308413721 174290 258 319 104 +2 +0 -0 -2 +7 0.7
203325 MLB CTXSTL 57% 333300 7213212 25845 62 240309418728 178290 258 321 106 +2 +0 +0 -2 +7 0.8
203426 MLB CTXSTL 57% 337303 7313213 26855 62 241310421731 180290 258 323 107 +3 +0 +0 -2 +7 0.9
203527 MLB CTXSTL 55% 330298 7113212 25844 62 240309418727 179289 258 321 106 +2 +0 +0 -2 +7 0.8
203628 MLB CTXSTL 55% 321289 6912212 25824 52 238307414721 176288 268 319 104 +2 +0 -0 -2 +7 0.7
203729 MLB CTXSTL 53% 303273 6411211 23784 52 235304408712 172287 268 315 102 +1 +0 -1 -2 +7 0.5
203830 MLB CTXSTL 57% 315284 6712211 24824 42 232300400700 168285 268 310 98 -1 +0 -1 -2 +7 0.3
203931 MLB CTXSTL 60% 318287 6712211 24844 43 228295390686 162281 268 304 94 -2 -0 -2 -2 +7 0.1
204032 MLB CTXSTL 61% 313283 6411210 23854 35 223289378667 155277 277 297 89 -4 -1 -2 -2 +7 -0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 37463378 79614224130 28396751 6327 236304407712 172289 268 313 98 +0 +2 -6 -22 +81 5.6
/ 162G— A+C — 650586 13925423 491689 115 237306411717 174291 268 313 98 +0 +0 -1 -4 +14 1.0
Career— MLE — 75006768 159527247264 5661948103 15357 236304407711 171290 268 313 98 -8 +6 -11 -42 +152 10.0
/ 162G— MLE — 650587 13924423 491699 135 237305409714 172291 268 313 98 -1 +1 -1 -4 +14 0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 APalm Beach Cardinals · 236 PAwOBA .324 → .270 (−54)K% 23.7% → 32.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.73%÷1.000×1.360——32.27%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.59%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0507.67%
HBP% /PA2.12%—×0.780—×1.0501.74%
Singles /BIP21.62%÷1.000×0.920×1.019×1.05021.28%
Doubles /BIP5.41%÷1.000×0.830×1.019×1.0504.80%
Triples /BIP2.03%÷1.000×0.910×1.019×1.0501.97%
Home runs /BIP4.05%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0503.41%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.

Result: wOBA .324 → .270; ISO .157 → .128; BABIP .301 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKACL Brewers · 137 PAwOBA .505 → .390 (−115)K% 15.3% → 22.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.33%÷1.000×1.440——22.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.68%÷1.000×0.620—×1.0227.40%
HBP% /PA2.19%—×0.720—×1.0221.61%
Singles /BIP35.05%÷1.000×0.820×1.034×1.02230.40%
Doubles /BIP12.37%÷1.000×0.720×1.034×1.0229.42%
Triples /BIP2.06%÷1.000×0.720×1.034×1.0221.57%
Home runs /BIP4.12%÷1.000×0.780—×1.0223.29%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.034.

Result: wOBA .505 → .390; ISO .237 → .179; BABIP .516 → .428. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Brewers Gold · 112 PAwOBA .364 → .241 (−123)K% 18.8% → 24.1%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA18.75%÷0.947×1.220——24.15%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.50%÷1.021×0.700—×1.0228.76%
HBP% /PA1.79%—×0.700—×1.0221.28%
Singles /BIP32.43%÷1.006×0.680×0.976×1.02221.86%
Doubles /BIP6.76%÷0.958×0.600×0.976×1.0224.22%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.121×0.600×0.976×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP1.35%÷1.040×0.470—×1.0220.62%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 101, 2B 92, 3B 124, K 89, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .364 → .241; ISO .084 → .047; BABIP .392 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).