Alexander Frias — OGILVIE

Alexander FriasOF ACL Brewers

Age 18 L/R 6'2" / 177 lbs ROK HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION205 act + 136 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†93

AVG/OBP/SLG.257 / .317 / .393

PA136

HR3

SB6

K%24

BB%7

BABIP323

ISO136

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.2	$12M	+$12M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.4	$12M	+$12M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.5	$12M	+$11M
2034	Arb-1	$5M	+2.5	$11M	+$9M
2035	Arb-2	$8M	+2.5	$10M	+$7M
2036	Arb-3	$12M	+2.4	$9M	+$5M
Totals		$28M		$66M	+$55M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Brewers Gold	—	112	101	23	4	0	1	8	34	2	7	3	228	297	297	594	69	328	30	7	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Brewers Gold	—	112	95	30	5	0	1	14	21	2	7	3	316	414	400	814	84	392	19	12	370	141	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	MIL	—	205	188	56	11	1	5	13	46	4	17	7	298	356	447	803	149	372	22	6	349	126	+6	+1	+0	-1	+6	1.1
YTD	18	ROK	MIL	—	205	180	69	15	2	6	21	32	4	17	7	383	459	589	1.047	206	444	16	10	459	210	+25	+1	+0	-1	+6	3.1
ROS	18	ROK	MIL	0%	136	124	32	6	1	3	9	33	2	6	2	257	317	393	710	136	318	24	7	307	93	-1	+0	+0	-1	+4	0.3
ROS	18	MLB	MIL	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		315	—	—	295	84	—	—	+0	-0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	MIL	—	205	189	56	11	1	5	13	46	4	17	7	296	356	444	801	148	370	22	6	349	126	+6	+1	+0	-1	+6	1.1
TOT	18	ROK	MIL	—	341	312	88	17	2	8	22	79	6	23	9	281	341	425	766	144	353	23	6	333	113	+5	+1	+0	-2	+10	1.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	MIL	34%	331	302	76	14	2	7	21	79	5	7	2	252	311	381	692	129	318	24	6	312	97	-1	+1	+0	-2	+9	0.8
2028	20	MLB	MIL	48%	439	399	103	19	3	11	30	103	7	8	3	258	321	404	725	145	318	23	7	319	102	+1	+0	+1	-3	+12	1.2
2029	21	MLB	MIL	54%	514	465	120	22	3	13	36	119	8	9	3	258	322	402	724	144	317	23	7	323	106	+3	+1	+1	-3	+15	1.6
2030	22	MLB	MIL	57%	564	510	133	24	4	15	40	129	9	10	3	261	326	412	737	151	318	23	7	327	108	+5	+1	+1	-3	+16	2.0
2031	23	MLB	MIL	58%	597	541	143	26	4	17	42	136	9	10	3	264	328	421	749	157	318	23	7	329	110	+7	+1	+1	-4	+17	2.2
2032	24	MLB	MIL	57%	618	559	148	27	4	18	44	140	10	10	3	265	330	424	753	159	319	23	7	331	111	+8	+1	+1	-4	+18	2.4
2033	25	MLB	MIL	57%	629	569	150	27	4	18	45	142	10	10	3	264	329	420	749	156	319	23	7	332	112	+9	+1	+1	-4	+18	2.5
2034	26	MLB	MIL	57%	633	573	151	27	4	18	45	143	10	10	3	264	328	419	747	155	319	23	7	332	112	+9	+1	+1	-4	+18	2.5
2035	27	MLB	MIL	55%	631	570	150	27	4	18	46	143	10	10	3	263	329	419	748	156	319	23	7	332	112	+9	+1	+1	-4	+18	2.5
2036	28	MLB	MIL	55%	625	564	149	27	4	18	46	143	10	10	3	264	331	422	753	158	318	23	7	331	112	+8	+1	+0	-4	+18	2.4
2037	29	MLB	MIL	53%	614	554	145	26	4	17	45	141	10	9	3	262	328	415	744	153	318	23	7	329	110	+7	+1	-1	-4	+17	2.1
2038	30	MLB	MIL	53%	603	544	141	25	3	17	45	140	9	9	3	259	326	410	736	151	316	23	7	326	108	+5	+1	-1	-4	+17	1.9
2039	31	MLB	MIL	52%	588	530	135	24	3	16	44	139	9	8	3	255	322	402	724	147	314	24	7	322	105	+3	+0	-2	-4	+17	1.5
2040	32	MLB	MIL	52%	569	513	130	23	3	15	42	137	9	8	2	253	321	398	719	144	311	24	7	316	100	+0	+1	-3	-3	+16	1.1
2041	33	MLB	MIL	52%	540	487	119	20	3	13	40	132	8	7	2	244	312	378	690	133	307	24	7	309	95	-3	+1	-3	-3	+15	0.6
2042	34	MLB	MIL	47%	492	446	105	17	2	11	36	124	7	6	2	235	303	357	659	121	301	25	7	300	88	-7	+0	-4	-3	+14	0.1
2043	35	MLB	MIL	43%	436	396	90	14	2	9	31	113	6	5	2	227	293	341	634	114	294	26	7	290	80	-10	+0	-5	-3	+12	-0.5
2027	19	MLB	MIL	34%	114	104	26	5	1	2	7	27	2	2	1	250	310	375	685	125	315	24	6	300	87	-2	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.1
2028	20	MLB	MIL	48%	213	194	49	9	1	5	14	50	3	4	1	253	313	387	699	134	315	23	7	305	92	-2	+0	+0	-1	+6	0.4
2029	21	MLB	MIL	54%	279	254	65	12	2	7	19	65	4	5	2	256	318	402	719	146	315	23	7	309	95	-2	+0	+0	-2	+8	0.5
2030	22	MLB	MIL	57%	319	289	75	13	2	9	22	73	5	5	2	260	323	412	735	152	315	23	7	312	97	-1	+0	+0	-2	+9	0.7
2031	23	MLB	MIL	58%	344	312	80	14	2	9	24	78	5	6	2	256	320	401	720	144	316	23	7	315	99	-0	+0	+0	-2	+10	0.8
2032	24	MLB	MIL	57%	352	319	83	15	2	10	25	80	5	6	2	260	324	414	738	154	316	23	7	317	100	+0	+0	+1	-2	+10	0.9
2033	25	MLB	MIL	57%	357	323	84	15	2	10	25	81	6	6	2	260	325	412	737	152	317	23	7	317	101	+0	+0	+1	-2	+10	1.0
2034	26	MLB	MIL	57%	358	323	84	15	2	10	26	81	6	6	2	260	327	412	739	152	316	23	7	318	101	+1	+0	+1	-2	+10	1.0
2035	27	MLB	MIL	55%	350	316	83	15	2	10	25	79	6	6	2	263	329	418	746	155	316	23	7	318	101	+1	+0	+0	-2	+10	0.9
2036	28	MLB	MIL	55%	343	310	80	14	2	10	25	78	5	5	2	258	324	413	736	155	316	23	7	317	101	+0	+0	+0	-2	+10	0.8
2037	29	MLB	MIL	53%	328	296	77	14	2	9	24	76	5	5	2	260	326	412	738	152	315	23	7	315	99	-0	+0	-0	-2	+9	0.7
2038	30	MLB	MIL	53%	317	285	74	13	2	9	24	74	5	5	1	260	328	414	742	154	314	23	8	312	97	-1	+1	-1	-2	+9	0.6
2039	31	MLB	MIL	52%	307	276	70	12	2	8	23	72	5	4	1	254	322	399	721	145	311	23	7	308	94	-2	+0	-1	-2	+9	0.4
2040	32	MLB	MIL	52%	295	267	66	11	2	7	22	71	4	4	1	247	314	382	696	135	308	24	7	303	90	-3	+0	-1	-2	+8	0.2
2041	33	MLB	MIL	52%	279	253	61	10	1	7	20	68	4	4	1	241	307	372	678	130	304	24	7	296	85	-5	+0	-2	-2	+8	0.0
2042	34	MLB	MIL	47%	232	210	49	8	1	5	17	58	3	3	1	233	300	352	652	119	298	25	7	287	78	-6	+0	-2	-1	+7	-0.2
2043	35	MLB	MIL	43%	186	168	39	6	1	4	13	48	3	2	1	232	299	351	650	119	292	26	7	277	70	-6	+0	-2	-1	+5	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4973	4500	1145	201	29	131	355	1159	76	78	26	254	320	399	719	145	313	23	7	309	95	-28	+5	-5	-30	+141	8.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	149	26	4	17	46	151	10	10	3	253	318	398	716	145	311	23	7	309	95	-4	+1	-1	-4	+18	1.1
Career	—			—	9671	8747	2243	399	57	255	695	2270	150	159	51	256	322	403	724	146	317	23	7	322	104	+47	+11	-12	-58	+274	26.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	151	27	4	17	47	153	10	11	3	257	322	403	726	146	318	24	7	322	104	+3	+1	-1	-4	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Brewers Gold	—	112	95	30	5	0	1	14	21	2	7	3	316	414	400	814	84	392	19	12	370	141	+5	+0	—	—	+3	0.9

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Gary Matthews Jr.last yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,572 PA	11	4,572	108	93	258	331	407	-5	-10	16.2	17.2
	/162	664	16	14	258	331	407	-0.7	-1.4	2.3	pk7: 18
#2Jay Paytonlast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,422 PA	9	4,422	119	45	278	322	425	-33	-0	13.2	13.4
#2Jay Paytonlast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,422 PA	/162	664	18	7	278	322	425	-5.0	-0.0	2.0	pk7: 14
#3Josh Reddicklast yr '21 career totals — 13 seasons, 4,879 PA	13	4,879	146	61	262	321	426	-52	-8	13.1	13.0
	/162	664	20	8	262	321	426	-7.1	-1.1	1.8	pk7: 13
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	5,143	137	81	257	319	405	-31	+0	14.2	11.6
	/162	664	18	10	257	319	405	-4.0	+0.0	1.8	pk7: 9
#4Aaron Boonelast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,540 PA	8	3,540	110	83	260	326	427	-12	-30	11.3	11.4
	/162	664	21	16	260	326	427	-2.2	-5.6	2.1	pk7: 11
#5José Hernándezlast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,901 PA	7	2,901	95	17	254	316	413	-11	+5	8.5	8.5
	/162	664	22	4	254	316	413	-2.4	+1.0	1.9	pk7: 8
#6Terrence Longlast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 3,282 PA	6	3,282	69	27	270	319	407	-26	-7	6.9	6.9
	/162	664	14	5	270	319	407	-5.2	-1.4	1.4	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alexander Frias (OGILVIE)	18	30→50	30→50	45	35	281/341/425	144	353	8	23	23%	6%	113	+1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ronny Ugarte 2023 · A	18	41	43→50	47→40	43	202/274/320	118	277	9	6	29%	7%	65	-0.7	227/287/334	107	295	8	5	24%	7%	73	-0.1	248/308/368	120	321	11	2	25%	7%	88	+0.3
●Oscar Taveras 2011 · A	19	44→54	42→55	49→45	41	217/260/327	110	271	8	9	23%	5%	59	-1.1	269/307/417	148	311	13	7	17%	5%	102	+1.9	290/325/453	164	324	14	7	15%	4%	120	+1.8
●Jackson Chourio 2022 · A	18	44→54	42→60	48→55	45	217/278/318	101	276	10	10	25%	7%	66	-0.6	233/279/390	157	315	18	19	31%	6%	85	+0.7	273/321/471	198	320	23	21	22%	6%	120	+2.5
●Esteury Ruiz 2017 · A	18	46→56	43→50	47→70	43	225/273/343	119	277	9	12	22%	5%	69	-0.4	209/256/323	114	313	8	25	34%	5%	56	-1.3	268/342/410	142	331	14	74	22%	7%	114	+1.8
●Oswaldo Arcia 2009 · A	18	46→51	40→60	45	44	220/261/317	96	257	7	8	18%	5%	56	-1.3	230/271/374	144	288	14	7	25%	5%	76	+0.1	247/307/454	207	317	26	3	30%	7%	110	+2.1
●Anthony Santander 2013 · A	18	45→47	42→60	47→45	39	216/275/327	111	304	9	9	31%	5%	66	-0.6	197/250/297	100	270	8	7	29%	5%	48	-1.9	233/308/449	216	247	30	2	20%	9%	110	+2.7
●Jason Heyward 2008 · A	18	46→56	41→55	47→50	41	220/273/322	102	303	7	7	29%	6%	64	-0.8	266/328/415	149	317	14	9	20%	8%	111	+2.5	259/351/444	185	308	20	14	22%	12%	125	+3.3
✕Héctor Rodríguez 2022 · A	18	46→50	43→50	43→50	44	224/277/336	112	272	10	9	22%	6%	69	-0.4	228/267/352	124	277	10	13	21%	4%	69	-0.4	238/278/383	145	274	17	10	20%	5%	79	+0.2
✕Samuel Basallo 2023 · A	18	41→48	44→55	48→45	40	209/264/317	108	283	12	4	30%	6%	59	-1.1	232/286/390	158	298	19	7	28%	7%	88	+0.9	230/287/406	176	286	23	6	28%	7%	89	+0.8
●Jahmai Jones 2016 · A	18	42→52	38→55	50	42	202/259/282	79	273	5	16	27%	6%	48	-1.9	227/283/327	100	295	8	16	24%	6%	69	-0.4	263/358/462	199	338	20	18	26%	11%	131	+2.1
✕Jesus Vasquez 2010 · A	18	41	43→55	45→55	40	203/255/316	114	272	9	8	29%	5%	55	-1.4	209/267/336	127	280	13	13	29%	6%	66	-0.6	206/270/350	143	270	16	18	29%	6%	73	-0.1
●Jesús Sánchez 2017 · A	19	48→54	44→60	49→50	39	236/267/361	124	294	10	6	24%	4%	70	-0.3	241/274/368	127	313	13	5	26%	4%	76	+0.1	256/323/468	211	319	26	4	27%	8%	119	+2.3
●Mark Vientos 2018 · A	18	42→49	40→60	41→30	38	206/251/301	95	290	8	3	31%	5%	50	-1.8	204/254/325	121	276	14	3	30%	5%	57	-1.2	245/305/447	202	325	28	0	32%	7%	109	+2.0
●Moisés Ballesteros 2022 · A	18	45→55	41→50	50→40	52	218/297/315	97	275	8	8	23%	10%	73	-0.1	225/288/361	136	282	16	4	25%	8%	81	+0.4	266/326/405	139	311	16	3	19%	8%	106	+1.6
✕Enmanuel Valdez 2017 · A	18	40→44	43→55	51→45	46	198/264/316	118	245	9	7	23%	7%	59	-1.1	188/250/298	110	251	9	7	28%	7%	49	-1.8	220/285/398	178	263	24	8	26%	8%	87	+0.7
●Avisaíl García 2009 · A	18	45→55	43→60	45→50	40	223/258/328	105	272	10	7	23%	4%	59	-1.1	217/245/288	71	312	5	10	31%	3%	42	-2.3	283/333/467	184	340	23	7	23%	6%	123	+2.8
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	38→43	42→55	53→50	44	188/268/290	102	278	10	11	34%	8%	55	-1.4	201/284/321	120	321	11	16	37%	9%	69	-0.4	229/308/399	169	310	21	18	31%	9%	95	+0.9
●Joe Benson 2007 · A	19	41→48	42→60	46→50	41	204/254/311	107	275	9	10	28%	6%	53	-1.5	211/280/305	94	316	6	13	33%	7%	63	-0.8	230/308/424	194	312	22	15	32%	8%	104	+1.5
✕Ravel Santana 2010 · A	18	39	42→50	48→55	44	192/269/294	102	269	10	9	31%	8%	56	-1.3	219/288/360	141	283	16	15	27%	8%	81	+0.4	220/291/383	163	271	20	20	26%	8%	85	+0.3
✕Fernando Martinez 2007 · A	18	48→54	46→50	47→45	40	237/284/373	136	297	13	9	25%	5%	82	+0.5	243/286/366	123	308	11	8	24%	5%	81	+0.4	243/290/390	147	314	17	1	27%	4%	87	+0.5