Alexander Frias — OGILVIE

Alexander FriasOF Palm Beach Cardinals

Age 18 L/R 6'2" / 177 lbs A HR -14%BB -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION373 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†92

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP313

ISO127

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$43M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT50

scouting grade only

POWER50

scouting grade only

EYE35

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Arb-1	$5M	+1.2	$5M	+$3M
2035	Arb-2	$8M	+1.1	$4M	+$1M
2036	Arb-3	$12M	+1.0	$4M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$16M		$30M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Brewers Gold	—	112	95	30	5	0	1	14	21	2	7	3	316	414	400	814	84	392	19	12	370	137	+5	+0	—	—	+2	0.8
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	—	112	100	22	3	0	1	9	32	2	7	3	220	297	280	577	60	306	29	8	257	60	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	—	112	100	22	3	0	1	9	32	2	7	3	220	297	280	577	60	309	29	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers Gold	—	112	95	30	5	0	1	14	21	2	7	3	316	414	400	814	84	392	19	12	370	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	—	112	100	22	3	0	1	9	32	2	7	3	220	297	280	577	60	306	29	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers Gold	—	112	100	22	3	0	1	9	32	2	7	3	220	297	280	577	60	306	29	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	A MLE	STL	—	373	335	83	16	4	8	29	110	8	25	9	248	323	391	714	143	344	29	8	308	94	-2	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK RAW	STL	—	137	118	52	12	2	4	16	21	3	12	6	441	518	678	1.196	237	516	15	12	519	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	A RAW	STL	—	236	204	49	8	3	6	26	56	5	13	3	240	340	397	737	157	301	24	11	332	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	18	A MLE	STL	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		314	22	11	304	92	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	0.0
TOT	18	A MLE	STL	—	382	343	84	16	4	8	30	112	8	25	9	245	320	385	705	140	339	29	8	308	94	-3	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	STL	34%	362	326	80	15	3	9	27	97	6	8	3	245	315	393	707	147	313	27	7	309	96	-2	+0	+1	-2	+8	0.5
2028	20	MLB MLE	STL	48%	463	417	102	19	3	12	35	120	8	9	3	245	315	391	706	146	313	26	8	318	101	+1	+1	+1	-3	+10	0.9
2029	21	MLB MLE	STL	54%	529	474	118	22	4	15	41	135	9	10	3	249	321	407	728	158	313	26	8	323	105	+3	+1	+1	-3	+11	1.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	STL	57%	571	511	129	24	4	17	45	143	10	10	3	252	325	415	740	162	313	25	8	327	107	+5	+1	+1	-3	+12	1.6
2031	23	MLB MLE	STL	58%	605	541	136	25	4	18	48	150	11	10	3	251	325	412	737	161	314	25	8	330	109	+7	+1	+1	-4	+13	1.8
2032	24	MLB MLE	STL	57%	624	558	141	26	4	19	50	154	11	10	3	253	326	416	742	163	315	25	8	332	111	+8	+1	+1	-4	+14	2.0
2033	25	MLB MLE	STL	57%	633	566	144	26	5	20	51	156	11	10	3	254	328	424	752	170	315	25	8	333	111	+9	+1	+1	-4	+14	2.1
2034	26	MLB MLE	STL	57%	636	569	145	26	5	20	51	157	11	10	3	255	328	424	752	169	314	25	8	333	112	+9	+1	+1	-4	+14	2.1
2035	27	MLB MLE	STL	55%	633	565	143	26	4	20	52	156	11	10	3	253	328	419	747	166	314	25	8	333	112	+9	+1	+1	-4	+14	2.1
2036	28	MLB MLE	STL	55%	626	558	142	26	4	20	52	156	11	10	3	254	330	423	753	168	314	25	8	332	111	+8	+1	+0	-4	+14	1.9
2037	29	MLB MLE	STL	53%	615	548	138	25	4	19	51	154	11	9	3	252	328	416	744	164	313	25	8	330	110	+7	+1	-1	-4	+13	1.7
2038	30	MLB MLE	STL	53%	603	537	134	24	4	18	50	153	11	9	3	250	326	410	736	160	312	25	8	327	108	+6	+1	-1	-4	+13	1.5
2039	31	MLB MLE	STL	52%	588	524	129	23	4	17	49	151	10	8	3	246	322	403	725	156	309	26	8	323	105	+3	+0	-2	-4	+13	1.1
2040	32	MLB MLE	STL	52%	570	508	122	22	3	16	47	148	10	8	2	240	317	390	707	150	306	26	8	317	101	+1	+1	-3	-3	+12	0.8
2041	33	MLB MLE	STL	52%	540	482	114	20	3	15	44	143	9	7	2	237	312	384	696	147	301	26	8	310	96	-2	+1	-3	-3	+12	0.3
2042	34	MLB MLE	STL	47%	492	441	101	17	3	13	40	134	8	6	2	229	305	370	674	141	295	27	8	301	90	-6	+0	-4	-3	+11	-0.2
2027	19	MLB CTX	STL	34%	124	112	27	5	1	3	9	33	2	3	1	241	309	384	693	143	312	27	7	294	96	-1	+0	+0	-1	+3	0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	STL	48%	224	201	50	9	2	6	17	58	4	4	1	249	320	403	723	154	312	26	8	301	101	+0	+0	+0	-1	+5	0.5
2029	21	MLB CTX	STL	54%	287	258	64	12	2	8	22	73	5	5	2	248	319	403	722	155	312	25	8	306	105	+2	+0	+0	-2	+6	0.7
2030	22	MLB CTX	STL	57%	323	289	71	13	2	9	25	81	6	6	2	246	319	398	717	152	312	25	8	309	107	+3	+0	+0	-2	+7	0.9
2031	23	MLB CTX	STL	58%	348	312	77	14	2	10	27	87	6	6	2	247	319	401	719	154	313	25	8	312	109	+4	+0	+0	-2	+8	1.0
2032	24	MLB CTX	STL	57%	356	319	81	15	3	10	28	88	6	6	2	254	326	414	740	160	313	25	8	314	111	+4	+0	+1	-2	+8	1.1
2033	25	MLB CTX	STL	57%	359	321	81	15	3	10	29	89	6	6	2	252	326	411	737	159	313	25	8	315	111	+5	+0	+1	-2	+8	1.2
2034	26	MLB CTX	STL	57%	360	321	82	15	3	11	29	89	7	6	2	255	331	424	754	168	313	25	8	315	112	+5	+0	+1	-2	+8	1.2
2035	27	MLB CTX	STL	55%	351	313	79	15	2	10	29	87	6	6	2	252	328	409	737	157	313	25	8	315	112	+5	+0	+1	-2	+8	1.1
2036	28	MLB CTX	STL	55%	344	307	76	14	2	10	28	86	6	5	2	248	323	404	726	156	312	25	8	314	111	+4	+0	+0	-2	+7	1.0
2037	29	MLB CTX	STL	53%	329	293	72	13	2	9	27	82	6	5	2	246	322	396	718	150	312	25	8	312	110	+4	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.9
2038	30	MLB CTX	STL	53%	317	282	70	13	2	9	26	80	6	5	1	248	325	404	729	156	310	25	8	310	108	+3	+1	-1	-2	+7	0.8
2039	31	MLB CTX	STL	52%	307	274	66	12	2	8	25	79	5	4	1	241	316	387	703	146	308	26	8	306	105	+2	+0	-1	-2	+7	0.6
2040	32	MLB CTX	STL	52%	296	265	63	11	2	8	24	77	5	4	1	238	313	385	698	147	305	26	8	300	101	+0	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.4
2041	33	MLB CTX	STL	52%	279	249	58	10	2	7	23	74	5	4	1	233	310	373	684	141	300	27	8	294	96	-1	+0	-2	-2	+6	0.2
2042	34	MLB CTX	STL	47%	232	207	47	8	1	6	19	63	4	3	1	227	304	362	667	135	294	27	8	285	90	-3	+0	-2	-1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4836	4323	1064	194	33	134	387	1226	85	78	25	246	320	399	720	153	311	25	8	308	105	+36	+6	-3	-29	+105	11.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	581	142	26	4	18	52	165	11	10	3	244	318	396	714	151	309	25	8	308	105	+5	+1	-0	-4	+14	1.6
Career	—	MLE		—	9211	8233	2041	369	61	269	743	2341	160	151	48	248	322	406	728	158	313	25	8	324	105	+64	+11	-7	-55	+197	21.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	144	26	4	19	52	165	11	11	3	248	321	404	725	157	312	25	8	324	105	+5	+1	-0	-4	+14	1.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Alex Gordonlast yr '20 AS×3GG×7SS career totals — 14 seasons, 7,250 PA	10.9	7,250	190	113	257	338	410	-58	+22	27.4	26.4
/162	664	17	10	-5.3	+2.0	2.5	pk7: 25
#2Kelly Johnsonlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,139 PA	7.7	5,139	155	87	251	330	422	+8	-3	22.3	21.3
/162	664	20	11	+1.0	-0.4	2.9	pk7: 20
#3Brad Wilkersonlast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	122	53	247	350	440	-35	-8	15.8	16.3
/162	664	22	9	-6.2	-1.4	2.8	pk7: 17
#4Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	6.1	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
/162	664	27	6	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
#5Cody Rosslast yr '14 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,733 PA	5.6	3,733	131	33	264	324	449	-13	-12	15.1	15.6
/162	664	23	6	-2.3	-2.1	2.7	pk7: 16
#6Eric Byrneslast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,440 PA	5.2	3,440	106	125	260	321	441	-21	+3	14.9	15.2
/162	664	20	24	-4.1	+0.6	2.9	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	7.6	5,021	147	81	249	319	408	-30	+0	14.5	11.7
/162	664	19	11	-4.0	+0.0	1.9	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alexander Frias (OGILVIE)	18	30→50	30→50	45	35	236/303/370	134	314	4	8	27%	7%	92	+0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ronny Ugarte 2023 · A	18	42	44→45	47→30	43	207/277/335	127	282	11	6	29%	7%	74	-0.6	230/289/339	109	300	8	5	24%	7%	78	-0.3	252/312/362	110	332	10	2	25%	7%	89	+0.2
●Jackson Chourio 2022 · A	18	44→54	42→60	48→55	46	218/280/321	104	273	10	10	24%	7%	71	-0.8	234/280/388	154	309	17	19	29%	6%	86	+0.3	274/325/460	186	323	22	21	22%	7%	115	+2.3
●Oscar Taveras 2011 · A	19	44→54	42→55	49→45	41	217/260/327	110	271	8	9	23%	5%	64	-1.3	273/312/421	148	317	13	7	18%	5%	105	+1.7	294/331/459	165	330	14	7	15%	4%	120	+1.7
●Esteury Ruiz 2017 · A	18	46→56	43→50	47→70	43	225/273/343	119	277	9	12	22%	5%	73	-0.6	209/255/323	114	312	8	25	34%	5%	61	-1.5	264/338/395	131	327	12	74	22%	6%	107	+1.2
●Jesús Sánchez 2017 · A	19	48→52	44→60	49→50	39	236/267/361	124	294	10	6	24%	4%	74	-0.6	241/275/366	125	311	12	5	26%	4%	78	-0.3	253/320/456	203	316	25	4	27%	8%	113	+1.7
●Jason Heyward 2008 · A	18	46→56	41→60	47→50	41	220/273/322	102	303	7	7	29%	6%	68	-1.0	266/328/415	149	317	14	9	20%	8%	109	+2.0	262/354/456	194	309	22	14	22%	12%	126	+3.1
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2022 · A	18	43→53	46→50	51→45	43	216/277/350	134	270	12	10	25%	6%	77	-0.3	235/294/358	123	286	13	8	22%	5%	85	+0.2	253/307/381	128	303	13	6	20%	5%	92	+0.6
✕Jesus Vasquez 2010 · A	18	41	43→55	45→55	40	203/255/316	114	272	9	8	29%	5%	60	-1.6	209/267/336	127	280	13	13	29%	6%	70	-0.9	206/270/350	143	270	16	18	29%	6%	76	-0.2
✕Oswaldo Arcia 2009 · A	18	46→53	40→60	45	44	220/261/317	96	257	7	8	18%	5%	61	-1.5	231/271/374	143	288	14	7	24%	5%	80	-0.2	248/309/441	194	320	23	3	29%	7%	107	+1.6
●Anthony Santander 2013 · A	18	45→48	42→65	47→45	39	216/275/327	111	304	9	9	31%	5%	70	-0.8	198/249/297	99	271	8	7	29%	5%	54	-2.0	240/315/472	232	253	32	2	20%	9%	117	+2.8
✕Héctor Rodríguez 2022 · A	18	46→50	42→50	43→50	45	222/276/332	109	269	9	9	21%	6%	72	-0.7	232/271/359	127	281	10	13	21%	4%	75	-0.5	233/274/370	137	270	16	9	20%	5%	77	-0.3
●Jay Bruce 2006 · A	19	41→51	46→65	42→50	39	205/258/335	129	297	14	8	35%	6%	65	-1.2	243/288/416	173	325	18	9	29%	6%	96	+1.0	254/334/470	216	299	27	7	24%	10%	115	+2.5
✕Luis Barrera 2014 · A	18	37→47	43→45	47→50	47	186/254/303	117	227	10	7	23%	7%	57	-1.8	194/247/272	78	270	5	7	28%	6%	47	-2.6	247/292/355	108	317	4	17	23%	5%	79	-0.1
✕Samuel Basallo 2023 · A	18	41→49	44→55	48→45	40	207/262/315	108	280	13	4	30%	6%	63	-1.4	232/288/385	153	298	18	7	27%	7%	88	+0.5	229/288/395	166	286	21	6	27%	7%	88	+0.4
✕Ravel Santana 2010 · A	18	39	42→50	48→55	44	192/269/294	102	269	10	9	31%	8%	61	-1.5	219/288/360	141	283	16	15	27%	8%	83	+0.1	220/291/383	163	271	20	20	26%	8%	87	+0.1
✕Enmanuel Valdez 2017 · A	18	40→46	43→55	51→45	46	198/264/316	118	245	9	7	23%	7%	64	-1.3	188/251/299	111	251	9	7	28%	7%	55	-2.0	219/282/397	178	265	23	8	27%	7%	88	+0.3
●Austin Meadows 2014 · A	19	44→54	44→65	49→55	43	213/282/337	124	306	10	6	32%	8%	76	-0.4	244/294/365	121	313	9	11	24%	6%	86	+0.3	253/334/493	240	287	30	8	23%	10%	126	+2.4
●Avisaíl García 2009 · A	18	45→55	43→60	45→50	40	223/258/328	105	272	10	7	23%	4%	63	-1.3	221/249/293	72	315	5	10	30%	3%	51	-2.2	284/335/469	185	342	23	7	23%	6%	121	+2.4
✕Fernando Martinez 2007 · A	18	48→55	46→50	47→45	40	237/284/373	136	297	13	9	25%	5%	84	+0.2	243/286/361	118	306	10	8	23%	5%	82	-0.0	240/289/384	144	312	16	1	28%	4%	87	+0.2
✕Dalton Pompey 2011 · A	18	41→51	42→45	50→55	40	205/258/306	101	279	10	11	30%	6%	59	-1.7	201/270/294	93	286	7	18	30%	8%	61	-1.5	258/316/357	98	327	7	29	22%	7%	89	+0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps