Manuel Cruz — OGILVIE

Manuel Cruz P FCL Yankees

Age 20 RHP 6'2" / 178 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 22 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 138130vR 122

ERA5.51

FIP5.51

K%18.1%

BB%15.3%

K-BB%2.8%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	38	185	30	25	3	100%	3.1	11.0%	16.9%	-5.9%	2.1%	8.60	5.45	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	38	185	30	25	3	100%	3.1	11.0%	16.9%	-5.9%	2.1%	8.60	5.45	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	12	12	38	185	30	25	3	100%	3.1	16.2%	13.5%	2.7%	1.6%	8.60	4.53	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	11	2	38	181	33	27	4	18%	3.5	12.4%	18.6%	-6.2%	3.1%	5.92	6.11	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	11	2	38	181	33	27	4	18%	3.5	12.4%	18.6%	-6.2%	3.1%	5.92	6.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	NYY	11	2	38	181	33	27	4	18%	3.5	18.2%	14.9%	3.3%	2.2%	5.92	4.66	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	NYY	6	6	39	165	32	22	5	100%	6.5	19.5%	13.4%	6.1%	2.9%	5.23	5.12	-0.1
2027	21	MLB CTX	NYY	3	3	19	80	16	11	2	100%	6.3	19.5%	13.4%	6.1%	2.9%	5.23	5.12	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	19	81	16	11	2	100%	6.4	19.5%	13.4%	6.1%	2.9%	5.23	4.74	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	166	114	21	100%	6.2	19.5%	13.4%	6.1%	2.9%	5.23	4.74	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		23	14	76	366	43	65	9	61%	3.3	11.7%	17.8%	-6.1%	2.6%	7.26	5.78	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	37	200	967	113	172	25	61%	3.3	11.7%	17.8%	-6.1%	2.6%	7.26	5.78	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Manuel Cruz (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.51	18.1%	15.3%	3.0%	—	5.12	19.5%	6.1%	39	-0.39	—	—	—
Yeury Tatiz R 2021 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	17.4%	15.6%	3.5%	.295	5.10	13.0%	-1.0%	100	-0.44	3.73	221	88
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	87
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	84
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	84
Kristian Cardozo R 2023 · 4.89 FIP	20	SW	4.89	16.3%	13.5%	2.7%	.358	6.76	13.6%	-4.3%	15	+1.87	3.49	138	84
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	84
Maiker Manuel R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	15.0%	13.2%	1.9%	.278	4.62	15.3%	11.5%	51	+0.06	4.56	148	83
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	83
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	82
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	82
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	82
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	82
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	82
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	82
Kobe Robinson R 2022 · 4.49 FIP	21	SW	4.49	23.2%	14.3%	2.8%	.296	3.44	18.8%	4.9%	84	-1.05	2.98	107	81
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	81
Eduardo Soriano R 2023 · 5.06 FIP	20	SP-	5.06	16.5%	12.5%	3.2%	.306	4.32	15.1%	-4.5%	29	-0.74	4.32	109	81
Eliazar Dishmey R 2023 · 6.05 FIP	18	SW	6.05	17.9%	15.1%	4.6%	.302	3.83	21.9%	9.2%	268	-2.22	3.40	311	81
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	81
Felix Arronde R 2023 · 4.42 FIP	20	SW	4.42	20.2%	12.1%	2.7%	.275	4.98	15.8%	5.8%	344	+0.56	4.16	442	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	31	19.0%	14.1%	1.13	5.33
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99