Grant Shepardson

Grant Shepardson P FCL Marlins

+0.1 WAR

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.8 · 2031

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.1%

BB%10.9%

K-BB%11.2%

IP55

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.8peak

2031

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	19	A	Jupiter Hammerheads	17	10	55	247	59	33	3	16.5%	16.3%	2.1%	4.23	4.93	+0.0
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	MIA	55	—	55	233	52	25	7	22.1%	10.9%	2.9%	4.58	4.58	+0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	21	MLB	MIA	58	—	58	245	55	25	7	22.6%	10.1%	2.8%	4.47	4.41	+0.4
2028	22	MLB	MIA	11	11	61	258	61	24	7	23.6%	9.4%	2.8%	4.31	4.21	+0.5
2029	23	MLB	MIA	12	12	63	267	65	24	7	24.3%	8.9%	2.8%	4.17	4.07	+0.7
2030	24	MLB	MIA	12	12	65	274	68	24	7	24.8%	8.6%	2.7%	4.06	3.98	+0.7
2031	25	MLB	MIA	12	12	66	277	70	23	8	25.2%	8.5%	2.7%	3.97	3.92	+0.8
2032	26	MLB	MIA	12	12	66	277	70	23	8	25.4%	8.4%	2.7%	3.93	3.90	+0.8
2033	27	MLB	MIA	12	12	65	275	70	23	8	25.4%	8.4%	2.7%	3.91	3.90	+0.8
2034	28	MLB	MIA	12	12	64	271	69	23	7	25.4%	8.5%	2.8%	3.92	3.93	+0.8
2035	29	MLB	MIA	11	11	63	265	67	23	7	25.2%	8.6%	2.8%	3.95	3.98	+0.7
2036	30	MLB	MIA	11	11	61	257	64	22	7	25.0%	8.7%	2.9%	4.00	4.04	+0.6
2037	31	MLB	MIA	59	—	59	248	62	22	7	24.8%	8.8%	2.9%	4.07	4.11	+0.6
2038	32	MLB	MIA	56	—	56	238	58	21	7	24.5%	8.9%	3.0%	4.15	4.20	+0.5
2039	33	MLB	MIA	54	—	54	228	55	21	7	24.2%	9.1%	3.1%	4.24	4.30	+0.4
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			17	10	55	247	41	40	5	16.5%	16.3%	2.1%	4.23	4.93	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—			61	36	200	893	148	145	18	16.5%	16.3%	2.1%	4.23	4.93	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Shepardson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	22.1%	10.9%	2.9%	—	4.23	23.5%	14.1%	182	-0.35	—	—	—
William Kempner R 2028 · 4.04 FIP	22	SW	4.04	21.5%	12.2%	2.2%	.277	3.24	27.3%	11.8%	68	-0.80	3.24	129	89
Yimmi Brasoban R 2027 · 3.90 FIP	21	SW	3.90	20.4%	10.2%	2.3%	.261	4.36	16.7%	5.3%	78	+0.46	3.33	149	89
José López R 2027 · 4.04 FIP	21	SW	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.79	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.25	3.12	543	88
Tanner Hall R 2028 · 4.71 FIP	22	SW	4.71	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.34	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.63	4.71	137	88
Aaron Holiday R 2028 · 4.81 FIP	22	SW	4.81	21.9%	11.3%	3.9%	.310	5.20	19.7%	-3.3%	59	+0.39	4.72	116	88
John Klein R 2027 · 4.53 FIP	21	SW	4.53	17.4%	11.4%	2.6%	.287	3.72	19.4%	10.1%	207	-0.81	3.22	260	88
Frank German R 2027 · 4.99 FIP	21	SW	4.99	19.5%	12.4%	3.6%	.308	4.60	18.9%	9.4%	123	-0.39	3.09	218	88
David Garner R 2028 · 3.81 FIP	22	SW	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	87
Jake Lyons R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.61	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.16	4.10	174	87
Robert Colina R 2026 · 4.45 FIP	20	SW	4.45	19.0%	9.8%	3.1%	.312	3.69	21.5%	12.7%	111	-0.76	3.25	266	87
Tanner Burns R 2028 · 4.38 FIP	22	SW	4.38	22.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.292	5.40	19.5%	6.0%	244	+1.02	4.38	355	87
Chih-Jung Liu R 2028 · 4.45 FIP	22	SW	4.45	18.8%	10.5%	2.9%	.331	6.10	21.6%	9.0%	233	+1.65	4.45	283	87
Brendan Collins R 2028 · 3.69 FIP	22	SW	3.69	21.8%	10.3%	2.1%	.294	3.85	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.16	3.69	122	87
Marco Raya R 2026 · 3.98 FIP	20	SW	3.98	19.9%	9.6%	2.5%	.238	4.57	20.0%	7.3%	191	+0.59	3.98	319	87
Curtis Taylor R 2028 · 3.97 FIP	22	SW	3.97	19.3%	9.9%	2.2%	.305	3.40	23.5%	13.7%	96	-0.57	2.58	408	87
Christian Roa R 2028 · 4.94 FIP	22	SW	4.94	19.6%	12.4%	3.5%	.321	5.00	22.7%	6.2%	260	+0.06	4.35	373	86
Levi Wells R 2028 · 4.35 FIP	22	SW	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.5%	.360	3.54	19.5%	9.7%	110	-0.81	2.08	170	86
Tyler Vogel R 2028 · 4.87 FIP	22	SW	4.87	23.4%	14.3%	3.5%	.305	4.25	18.8%	7.4%	82	-0.62	3.84	147	86
Noah Denoyer R 2029 · 4.50 FIP	23	SW	4.50	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.24	25.9%	14.9%	121	-0.26	3.32	181	86
Craig Missigman R 2028 · 4.02 FIP	22	SW	4.02	19.2%	11.4%	2.0%	.270	5.04	19.2%	10.4%	53	+1.02	4.02	124	86

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.8	$4M	+$3M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$2M	+0.7	$4M	+$2M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$6M		$19M	+$13M