Grant Shepardson
P
FCL Marlins
Age 20
RHP
6'1" / 195 lbs
ROK
peak 0.5 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 144134vR 125
ERA5.55
FIP5.55
K%17.6%
BB%15.6%
K-BB%2.0%
ROS IP39
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 10 | 55 | 247 | 59 | 33 | 3 | 59% | 3.3 | 16.5% | 16.3% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 4.23 | 4.90 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 10 | 55 | 247 | 59 | 33 | 3 | 59% | 3.3 | 23.9% | 13.4% | 10.5% | 1.2% | 4.23 | 3.46 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 39 | 163 | 29 | 25 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.6% | 15.6% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 5.55 | 5.55 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 41 | 171 | 32 | 24 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.8% | 13.9% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.29 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | MIA | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 16 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.8% | 13.9% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.29 | 5.20 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 16 | 12 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.8% | 13.9% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.29 | 4.82 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 160 | 120 | 20 | 100% | 5.5 | 18.8% | 13.9% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 5.29 | 4.82 | +1.3 | ||
| Career | — | 17 | 10 | 55 | 247 | 41 | 40 | 5 | 59% | 3.3 | 16.5% | 16.3% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 4.23 | 4.90 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 61 | 36 | 200 | 893 | 148 | 145 | 19 | 59% | 3.3 | 16.5% | 16.3% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 4.23 | 4.90 | +1.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Grant Shepardson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.55 | 17.6% | 15.6% | 2.9% | — | 5.20 | 18.8% | 5.0% | 41 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Bryan Polanco R 2026 · 5.33 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.33 | 18.2% | 14.3% | 3.5% | .248 | 5.50 | 13.0% | 1.2% | 243 | +0.17 | 5.24 | 347 | 88 |
| Yeury Tatiz R 2026 · 5.77 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.77 | 17.4% | 15.6% | 3.9% | .295 | 5.37 | 13.0% | -1.0% | 100 | -0.40 | 3.73 | 221 | 87 |
| Reibyn Corona R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.94 | 17.0% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .290 | 5.61 | 14.5% | 1.7% | 63 | +0.67 | 4.38 | 190 | 86 |
| Angel Rivero R 2025 · 5.06 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.06 | 19.9% | 16.7% | 2.8% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.60 | 105 | 86 |
| Luis Rujano R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.72 | 17.1% | 16.6% | 1.8% | .309 | 4.90 | 17.0% | 0.4% | 125 | +0.18 | 4.67 | 178 | 86 |
| Danny Flatt R 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.05 | 14.5% | 15.7% | 4.0% | .304 | 5.46 | 12.5% | -1.1% | 65 | -0.59 | 5.31 | 112 | 85 |
| Nolberto Henriquez R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.75 | 16.0% | 13.4% | 2.4% | .305 | 5.43 | 11.3% | -3.1% | 52 | +0.68 | 4.75 | 108 | 85 |
| Maiker Manuel R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.56 | 15.0% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .278 | 4.62 | 15.3% | 11.5% | 51 | +0.06 | 4.56 | 148 | 85 |
| Gabriel Chinchilla R 2025 · 5.10 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.10 | 17.9% | 14.4% | 3.1% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.64 | 113 | 85 |
| Alain Pena R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.09 | 14.2% | 13.9% | 2.6% | .222 | 5.50 | 15.6% | 3.5% | 190 | +0.41 | 3.66 | 265 | 84 |
| Hunter Parks R 2027 · 5.41 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.41 | 18.7% | 16.8% | 3.2% | .312 | 5.36 | 17.8% | -0.6% | 163 | -0.05 | 3.51 | 278 | 84 |
| Kyle Larsen R 2027 · 5.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.50 | 15.8% | 17.9% | 2.7% | .274 | 5.00 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 77 | -0.50 | 4.71 | 137 | 84 |
| Junior Mieses R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.87 | 19.9% | 19.2% | 1.9% | .296 | 6.25 | 18.9% | -1.2% | 134 | +1.38 | 4.87 | 236 | 84 |
| Miguel Vinicio R 2025 · 5.69 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.69 | 13.8% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 1.4% | 47 | -1.71 | 3.63 | 164 | 83 |
| Kristian Cardozo R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.98 | 16.3% | 13.5% | 2.8% | .358 | 7.24 | 13.6% | -4.3% | 15 | +2.26 | 3.49 | 138 | 83 |
| Lisander Brito R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.60 | 14.1% | 15.0% | 3.3% | .309 | 3.23 | 18.9% | 5.3% | 21 | -2.37 | 3.23 | 101 | 83 |
| Wilian Bormie R 2028 · 5.64 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.64 | 21.6% | 20.4% | 3.2% | .275 | 4.00 | 23.3% | 9.2% | 184 | -1.64 | 3.21 | 207 | 83 |
| Kolton Curtis R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.90 | 17.2% | 14.4% | 2.6% | .236 | 4.29 | 19.9% | 2.5% | 66 | -0.61 | 4.29 | 148 | 83 |
| Ismael Agreda R 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.23 | 17.1% | 18.5% | 2.3% | .269 | 4.73 | 21.9% | 5.3% | 145 | -0.50 | 3.35 | 239 | 83 |
| Juan Perez R 2027 · 5.28 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.28 | 15.4% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .321 | 4.63 | 10.8% | 0.0% | 56 | -0.65 | 4.63 | 113 | 82 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 40 | 18.2% | 14.7% | 1.11 | 5.42 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |