Grant Shepardson

P FCL Marlins

Age 21 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.6 · 2031

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1049ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	MIX2 levels	17	10	55	4.23	3.46	23.9%	13.4%	—	K 16.5% · BB 16.3% · FIP 4.79
2026	20	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIA	—	—	0	5.40	5.40	18.9%	15.1%	—
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIA	4	4	21	5.02	4.90	20.5%	13.0%	0.1
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBMIA	6	6	31	4.76	4.63	21.5%	11.7%	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

CompsAlex Vallecillo (age 21) · Jhoster Baez (age 19) · Luis Garcia (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 136128vR 119

ERA5.40

FIP5.40

K%18.9%

BB%15.1%

K-BB%3.8%

Proj IP42

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	10	55	247	59	33	3	59%	3.3	16.5%	16.3%	0.3%	1.9%	4.23	4.79	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	10	55	247	59	33	3	59%	3.3	16.5%	16.3%	0.3%	1.9%	4.23	4.79	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	10	55	247	59	33	3	59%	3.3	23.9%	13.4%	10.5%	1.2%	4.23	3.46	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.9%	15.1%	3.8%	2.9%	5.40	5.40	—
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	43	181	37	24	5	100%	5.4	20.5%	13.0%	7.5%	2.9%	5.10	4.98	+0.2
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	43	181	39	21	5	100%	5.4	21.5%	11.7%	9.8%	2.8%	4.84	4.71	+0.3
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	8	8	43	181	40	20	5	100%	5.4	22.1%	10.8%	11.3%	2.8%	4.65	4.53	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	7	7	41	172	39	18	5	100%	5.8	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	2.8%	4.51	4.42	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	7	7	41	173	39	18	5	100%	5.9	22.8%	10.3%	12.5%	2.8%	4.44	4.40	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	7	7	40	169	38	17	5	100%	5.7	22.8%	10.3%	12.4%	2.9%	4.44	4.44	+0.4
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	21	89	18	12	2	100%	5.2	20.5%	13.0%	7.5%	2.7%	5.02	4.90	+0.1
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	6	6	31	131	28	15	4	100%	5.2	21.5%	11.7%	9.8%	2.7%	4.76	4.63	+0.2
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	6	6	36	152	34	16	4	100%	6.0	22.1%	10.8%	11.3%	2.7%	4.57	4.45	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	6	6	36	152	34	16	4	100%	6.0	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	2.7%	4.43	4.34	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	6	6	37	156	36	16	4	100%	6.2	22.8%	10.3%	12.5%	2.7%	4.36	4.32	+0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	6	6	37	156	36	16	4	100%	6.2	22.8%	10.3%	12.4%	2.7%	4.36	4.36	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		34	34	198	838	186	91	23	100%	5.8	22.2%	10.9%	11.3%	2.7%	4.55	4.09	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	187	92	23	100%	5.8	22.2%	10.9%	11.3%	2.7%	4.55	4.09	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		17	10	55	247	41	40	5	59%	3.3	16.5%	16.3%	0.3%	1.9%	4.23	4.79	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	36	200	893	148	145	17	59%	3.3	16.5%	16.3%	0.3%	1.9%	4.23	4.79	+1.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 ROKFCL Marlins · 42 IPFIP 3.08 → 4.61 (+1.53)K% 26.4% → 18.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.40%	—	×0.680	17.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.11%	—	×1.250	12.64%
HR / BF /BF	1.69%	÷0.910	×1.400	2.59%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 82).

Result: FIP 3.08 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AJupiter Hammerheads · 14 IPFIP 4.39 → 5.26 (+0.88)K% 17.4% → 12.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.740	12.87%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.74%	—	×1.180	25.65%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.035	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 107).

Result: FIP 4.39 → 5.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Shepardson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.74	21.4%	9.5%	129	-0.66	—	—	—
Alex Vallecillo R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	21	SP-	4.75	18.6%	16.3%	2.1%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	4.51	152	87
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	86
Luis Garcia R 2018 · 4.30 FIP	21	SP-	4.30	17.9%	13.4%	1.8%	.295	3.65	27.4%	17.5%	264	-0.65	3.40	535	86
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	86
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.42	301	85
Jake Lyons R 2021 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.325	4.64	19.4%	9.2%	105	+0.18	4.13	174	85
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	85
Nick Garcia R 2021 · 4.59 FIP	22	SP-	4.59	18.3%	12.3%	2.7%	.274	5.03	17.3%	6.2%	265	+0.44	3.20	411	84
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	84
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	84
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	83
Abel Brito R 2022 · 4.79 FIP	21	SP-	4.79	15.7%	12.6%	2.6%	.310	5.66	13.2%	-8.6%	70	+0.87	4.13	147	83
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	83
James McArthur R 2019 · 5.04 FIP	22	SP-	5.04	18.8%	15.5%	2.9%	.304	4.41	20.0%	10.7%	131	-0.63	3.48	352	83
Jeisson Cabrera R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	20	SP-	4.42	21.3%	15.5%	2.1%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	244	83
Kolton Curtis R 2024 · 4.91 FIP	20	SP-	4.91	17.2%	14.4%	2.6%	.236	4.41	19.9%	2.5%	66	-0.50	4.41	148	83
Lisandro Almonte R 2023 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	20.4%	20.7%	2.8%	.274	3.81	20.7%	12.2%	15	-1.73	3.81	128	83
Nathan Eovaldi R 2011 · 4.23 FIP	21	SP-	4.23	15.8%	13.7%	1.3%	.257	3.53	16.3%	9.8%	425	-0.70	2.44	1,848	82
Luis Mora R 2016 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	16.3%	15.4%	3.8%	.303	5.27	23.9%	1.2%	43	-0.51	3.95	119	82
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	42	21.6%	11.7%	1.10	4.77
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Yorkis Perez ('02)	1.4	40	20.8%	11.8%	0.93	4.44
Jorge Julio ('09)	2.3	58	21.7%	11.3%	1.25	4.43