Grant Shepardson

Grant Shepardson P FCL Marlins

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 195 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.9 · 2032

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.67

FIP5.67

K%17.6%

BB%16.6%

K-BB%1.0%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF4045

CTRL3540

CMD4040

K†4055

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	10	55	247	59	33	3	59%	3.3	16.5%	16.3%	0.3%	1.9%	4.23	4.79	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	10	55	247	59	33	3	59%	3.3	16.5%	16.3%	0.3%	1.9%	4.23	4.79	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	10	55	247	59	33	3	59%	3.3	23.9%	13.4%	10.5%	1.2%	4.23	3.46	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	20	MLB	MIA	1	1	3	13	2	2	0	100%	3.0	17.6%	16.6%	1.0%	2.9%	5.67	5.67	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	9	9	52	221	42	32	6	100%	5.8	18.8%	14.6%	4.2%	2.8%	5.39	5.29	-0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	55	232	47	30	6	100%	5.5	20.1%	13.1%	7.1%	2.8%	5.10	4.96	-0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	57	241	51	29	7	100%	5.7	21.0%	12.0%	9.0%	2.7%	4.87	4.74	+0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	58	247	53	28	7	100%	5.8	21.6%	11.4%	10.2%	2.7%	4.70	4.59	+0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	59	250	55	27	7	100%	5.9	22.0%	11.0%	11.0%	2.7%	4.58	4.50	+0.3
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	59	250	55	27	7	100%	5.9	22.2%	11.0%	11.2%	2.7%	4.52	4.48	+0.3
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	58	246	55	27	7	100%	5.8	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	2.8%	4.52	4.52	+0.3
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIA	5	5	26	110	21	16	3	100%	5.2	18.8%	14.6%	4.2%	2.7%	5.31	5.21	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	40	169	34	22	4	100%	5.7	20.1%	13.1%	7.1%	2.6%	5.02	4.88	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	48	203	43	24	5	100%	5.3	21.0%	12.0%	9.0%	2.6%	4.79	4.66	+0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	52	220	47	25	6	100%	5.8	21.6%	11.4%	10.2%	2.6%	4.63	4.52	+0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	54	228	50	25	6	100%	6.0	22.0%	11.0%	11.0%	2.6%	4.51	4.43	+0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	55	232	52	25	6	100%	6.1	22.2%	11.0%	11.2%	2.6%	4.45	4.41	+0.3
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	55	232	52	26	6	100%	6.1	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	2.6%	4.44	4.44	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		58	58	330	1395	298	164	36	100%	5.7	21.4%	11.7%	9.6%	2.6%	4.67	4.21	+2.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	180	99	22	100%	5.7	21.4%	11.7%	9.6%	2.6%	4.67	4.21	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		17	10	55	247	41	40	5	59%	3.3	16.5%	16.3%	0.3%	1.9%	4.23	4.79	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	36	200	893	148	145	17	59%	3.3	16.5%	16.3%	0.3%	1.9%	4.23	4.79	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Grant Shepardson (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.67	17.6%	16.6%	2.9%	—	4.99	20.0%	6.8%	164	-0.68	—	—	—
Yeury Tatiz R 2021 · 5.54 FIP	20	SP-	5.54	17.4%	15.6%	3.5%	.295	5.10	13.0%	-1.0%	100	-0.44	3.73	221	88
Bryan Polanco R 2022 · 5.18 FIP	20	SP-	5.18	18.2%	14.3%	3.3%	.248	5.58	13.0%	1.2%	243	+0.40	5.18	374	86
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.74	17.4%	0.9%	149	+0.06	4.54	202	86
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	86
Hunter Parks R 2022 · 5.17 FIP	21	SP-	5.17	18.7%	16.8%	2.8%	.312	5.23	17.7%	-0.3%	163	+0.06	4.62	298	85
Gage Stanifer R 2023 · 4.78 FIP	19	SP-	4.78	16.6%	14.9%	2.2%	.342	4.35	24.2%	7.9%	259	-0.43	2.85	301	85
Dariel Francia R 2023 · 5.09 FIP	17	SW	5.09	19.8%	17.4%	2.7%	.322	5.13	19.9%	-0.4%	98	+0.04	3.84	134	84
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	84
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	84
Blane Abeyta R 2021 · 4.66 FIP	22	SP-	4.66	21.1%	18.2%	1.9%	.283	4.78	15.6%	6.4%	343	+0.12	4.24	489	83
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	83
Nolberto Henriquez R 2021 · 4.99 FIP	21	SP-	4.99	16.0%	13.4%	2.8%	.305	5.60	11.3%	-3.1%	52	+0.61	4.99	108	83
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	83
Maiker Manuel R 2018 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	15.0%	13.2%	1.9%	.278	4.62	15.3%	11.5%	51	+0.06	4.56	148	83
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	82
Wills Montgomerie R 2018 · 5.10 FIP	23	SP-	5.10	19.3%	19.1%	2.2%	.275	4.51	20.1%	6.0%	105	-0.59	4.51	153	82
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	82
Daniel Corniel R 2023 · 5.15 FIP	19	SP-	5.15	20.3%	17.1%	2.9%	.364	4.37	15.7%	3.2%	140	-0.78	3.50	218	82
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	82
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	55	20.9%	12.4%	1.07	4.88
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77