Salvador Casado — OGILVIE

Salvador Casado P FCL Orioles

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 198 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 160151vR 143

ERA6.66

FIP6.66

K%13.6%

BB%22.1%

K-BB%-8.5%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL2020

CMD2020

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	15	6	30	139	32	23	0	40%	2.0	15.7%	20.7%	-5.0%	0.0%	6.07	4.40	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	15	6	30	139	32	23	0	40%	2.0	15.7%	20.7%	-5.0%	0.0%	6.07	4.40	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	15	6	30	139	32	23	0	40%	2.0	23.0%	16.5%	6.5%	0.0%	6.07	3.27	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	10	40	187	36	28	0	91%	3.6	13.1%	18.7%	-5.6%	0.0%	3.60	4.37	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	10	40	187	36	28	0	91%	3.6	13.1%	18.7%	-5.6%	0.0%	3.60	4.37	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	11	10	40	187	36	28	0	91%	3.6	19.3%	15.0%	4.3%	0.0%	3.60	3.40	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	7	5	19	90	16	13	0	71%	2.8	12.1%	18.1%	-6.0%	0.0%	5.12	4.37	—
YTD	20	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	7	5	19	90	16	13	0	71%	2.8	12.1%	18.1%	-6.0%	0.0%	5.12	4.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	BAL	7	5	19	90	16	13	0	71%	2.8	17.8%	14.4%	3.3%	0.0%	5.12	3.43	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	BAL	8	8	38	160	25	31	4	100%	4.7	15.6%	19.2%	-3.6%	2.8%	6.24	6.11	-0.5
2027	21	MLB CTX	BAL	4	4	19	80	13	15	2	100%	4.8	15.6%	19.2%	-3.6%	2.8%	6.24	6.11	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	19	78	12	15	2	100%	4.6	15.6%	19.2%	-3.6%	2.8%	6.24	5.73	-0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	129	161	22	100%	4.8	15.6%	19.2%	-3.6%	2.8%	6.24	5.73	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		33	21	89	416	57	80	0	64%	2.7	13.7%	19.2%	-5.5%	0.0%	4.75	4.38	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		74	47	200	935	128	180	0	64%	2.7	13.7%	19.2%	-5.5%	0.0%	4.75	4.38	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Salvador Casado (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.66	13.6%	22.1%	2.8%	—	6.11	15.6%	-3.6%	38	-0.55	—	—	—
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	89
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	88
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	85
Darlin Alcántara R 2022 · 6.23 FIP	20	SP-	6.23	12.3%	22.2%	2.5%	.320	4.64	12.3%	2.5%	31	-1.59	3.61	118	85
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	85
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	83
Eliezer Pena R 2023 · 6.54 FIP	17	SP	6.54	10.5%	18.5%	3.6%	.265	4.47	18.1%	1.2%	114	-2.07	3.26	150	83
Harold Chirino R 2017 · 6.05 FIP	19	SP-	6.05	13.2%	16.0%	3.7%	.327	3.11	19.0%	6.2%	34	-2.94	3.11	321	83
Camilo Sanchez R 2023 · 6.65 FIP	20	SP-	6.65	10.0%	18.5%	3.8%	.317	5.84	14.8%	0.8%	62	-0.81	3.57	117	83
Keythel Key R 2023 · 5.77 FIP	19	SP-	5.77	13.7%	20.1%	2.3%	.290	5.29	18.8%	2.9%	228	-0.48	4.98	272	82
Yeri Perez R 2023 · 5.94 FIP	18	SP-	5.94	13.8%	26.5%	1.2%	.292	5.58	16.0%	-9.0%	136	-0.36	4.91	185	82
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	81
Felipito Santos R 2019 · 7.57 FIP	20	SP-	7.57	4.3%	25.3%	3.0%	.358	5.32	13.7%	-5.9%	58	-2.25	4.83	106	81
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	81
Alejandro Chavez R 2019 · 6.79 FIP	20	SP-	6.79	9.8%	20.4%	3.5%	.377	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	109	81
Randry De Leon R 2023 · 6.45 FIP	18	SP-	6.45	17.7%	20.2%	4.2%	.308	4.83	18.4%	3.3%	123	-1.62	4.37	153	81
Jorge Bautista R 2021 · 6.09 FIP	20	SP	6.09	13.1%	16.5%	3.6%	.297	4.86	16.8%	7.5%	231	-1.23	3.80	336	81
Irv Carter R 2023 · 7.11 FIP	20	SP-	7.11	11.4%	18.9%	4.7%	.266	5.51	18.8%	6.1%	150	-1.60	4.81	236	81
Sam Pastrone R 2017 · 6.66 FIP	20	SP-	6.66	10.5%	21.7%	3.1%	.341	6.51	11.9%	-17.0%	21	-0.15	3.10	146	80
Enrique Segura R 2023 · 6.44 FIP	18	SP	6.44	13.2%	21.3%	3.2%	.269	5.60	16.4%	2.4%	234	-0.84	4.12	313	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	14.8%	20.4%	1.07	6.41
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91