Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL KC Stewart | 11 | 0 | 25 | 112 | 14 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 2.3 | 8.5% | 24.6% | -16.1% | 0.9% | 4.32 | 6.01 | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL KC Stewart | 11 | 0 | 25 | 112 | 14 | 22 | 1 | 0% | 2.3 | 12.5% | 19.6% | -7.1% | 0.9% | 4.32 | 5.14 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Royals Gold | 11 | 7 | 24 | 113 | 23 | 24 | 1 | 64% | 2.2 | 13.8% | 26.5% | -12.7% | 1.1% | 3.33 | 5.91 | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Royals Gold | 11 | 7 | 24 | 113 | 23 | 24 | 1 | 64% | 2.2 | 20.4% | 21.2% | -0.9% | 0.9% | 3.33 | 4.70 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Royals | 12 | 5 | 30 | 135 | 35 | 23 | 1 | 42% | 2.5 | 17.6% | 21.3% | -3.7% | 1.2% | 6.67 | 4.94 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Royals | 12 | 5 | 30 | 135 | 35 | 23 | 1 | 42% | 2.5 | 25.9% | 17.0% | 8.9% | 0.7% | 6.67 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 25 | 6 | 57 | 274 | 64 | 53 | 2 | 24% | 2.3 | 17.3% | 22.8% | -5.5% | 0.8% | 5.34 | 4.98 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 25 | 6 | 57 | 274 | 64 | 53 | 2 | 24% | 2.3 | 23.4% | 19.3% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 5.34 | 4.09 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 24 | 1 | 30 | 156 | 19 | 42 | 3 | 4% | 1.3 | 9.0% | 31.8% | -22.8% | 2.5% | 7.42 | 7.74 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | KC | 40 | 0 | 42 | 177 | 30 | 40 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.8% | 22.7% | -5.9% | 2.7% | 6.40 | 6.40 | -0.9 |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 16.8% | 22.7% | -5.9% | 2.7% | 6.40 | 6.40 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 21 | MLB | KC | — | — | 72 | 333 | 49 | 82 | 8 | — | — | 14.6% | 24.7% | -10.0% | 2.3% | 6.83 | 6.96 | -1.8 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | KC | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 34 | 36 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 19.3% | -0.9% | 2.6% | 5.97 | 5.82 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | KC | 21 | 0 | 22 | 93 | 17 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 19.3% | -0.9% | 2.6% | 5.97 | 5.82 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 21 | 0 | 22 | 92 | 17 | 18 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 19.3% | -0.9% | 2.6% | 5.97 | 5.44 | -0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 157 | 166 | 18 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.4% | 19.3% | -0.9% | 2.6% | 5.97 | 5.44 | -0.1 | ||
| Career | — | 83 | 19 | 167 | 790 | 110 | 198 | 10 | 23% | 2.0 | 14.0% | 25.1% | -11.1% | 1.3% | 5.51 | 5.80 | -0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 100 | 23 | 200 | 948 | 132 | 238 | 12 | 23% | 2.0 | 14.0% | 25.1% | -11.1% | 1.3% | 5.51 | 5.80 | -0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yeri Perez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.40 | 16.8% | 22.7% | 2.7% | — | 5.82 | 18.4% | -0.9% | 44 | -0.58 | — | — | — |
| Jaydenn Estanista R 2026 · 6.67 FIP | 21 | SU | 6.67 | 16.7% | 25.7% | 3.1% | .348 | 4.89 | 21.2% | 5.4% | 118 | -1.78 | 4.51 | 205 | 85 |
| Hansel Rosario R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.40 | 19.2% | 22.2% | 2.0% | .306 | 6.91 | 16.3% | -21.0% | 19 | +1.51 | 5.08 | 107 | 83 |
| Bernard Jose R 2026 · 6.33 FIP | 21 | SU | 6.33 | 14.4% | 19.0% | 3.7% | .309 | 4.93 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 95 | -1.40 | 4.44 | 183 | 83 |
| Sandy Gaston R 2026 · 6.48 FIP | 21 | SW | 6.48 | 17.7% | 24.0% | 3.4% | .295 | 4.82 | 21.9% | 3.8% | 115 | -1.66 | 4.17 | 294 | 83 |
| Nixon Encarnacion R 2025 · 6.59 FIP | 20 | SU | 6.59 | 18.3% | 25.3% | 3.3% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.47 | 105 | 82 |
| Cory Thompson R 2027 · 5.42 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.42 | 15.2% | 15.7% | 2.9% | .289 | 4.28 | 16.3% | 10.6% | 131 | -1.14 | 3.48 | 218 | 82 |
| Eli Saul R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 21 | SW | 5.49 | 12.6% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .305 | 5.48 | 13.8% | -2.9% | 98 | -0.01 | 5.40 | 157 | 81 |
| Conor Grady R 2027 · 5.24 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.24 | 17.2% | 19.0% | 2.2% | .242 | 4.47 | 16.9% | 5.1% | 96 | -0.77 | 4.47 | 108 | 81 |
| Omar Ventura R 2026 · 5.82 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.82 | 15.8% | 21.6% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.53 | 19.5% | 3.1% | 30 | -2.29 | 3.53 | 125 | 81 |
| Noah Takacs R 2027 · 5.82 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.82 | 12.5% | 16.4% | 3.1% | .301 | 5.77 | 13.8% | -2.3% | 83 | -0.05 | 5.15 | 122 | 81 |
| Yovanny Cabrera R 2026 · 6.27 FIP | 21 | SU | 6.27 | 17.5% | 19.5% | 4.0% | .274 | 5.00 | 18.2% | 1.9% | 128 | -1.27 | 4.39 | 243 | 81 |
| Dariel Francia R 2025 · 7.05 FIP | 20 | SU | 7.05 | 16.7% | 31.2% | 2.5% | .220 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.98 | 112 | 81 |
| Johan Moreno R 2026 · 6.39 FIP | 21 | SW | 6.39 | 13.2% | 16.7% | 4.2% | .325 | 4.18 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 105 | -2.21 | 3.13 | 206 | 81 |
| Tommy McCollum R 2027 · 6.22 FIP | 22 | SU | 6.22 | 17.1% | 27.2% | 2.0% | .235 | 3.75 | 26.4% | 10.9% | 112 | -2.47 | 2.90 | 200 | 81 |
| Jordan Brink R 2028 · 5.96 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.96 | 18.3% | 19.2% | 3.6% | .233 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.10 | 132 | 81 |
| Jose Varela R 2026 · 5.95 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.95 | 17.4% | 21.7% | 2.9% | .276 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 131 | 80 |
| Bryce McGowan R 2027 · 5.98 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.98 | 17.0% | 22.9% | 2.6% | .368 | 4.35 | 20.6% | 6.6% | 145 | -1.63 | 3.59 | 178 | 80 |
| Michael Perez R 2026 · 5.68 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.68 | 18.3% | 16.1% | 3.8% | .296 | 4.58 | 23.6% | 8.4% | 109 | -1.10 | 4.35 | 131 | 79 |
| Chay Yeager R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 21 | SU | 5.51 | 13.1% | 15.7% | 2.8% | .261 | 4.47 | 22.8% | 12.5% | 56 | -1.04 | 4.47 | 110 | 79 |
| Cole Ayers R 2027 · 5.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.49 | 13.0% | 15.4% | 2.8% | .305 | 3.96 | 21.2% | 10.1% | 152 | -1.53 | 3.52 | 171 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 43 | 17.6% | 21.0% | 1.03 | 6.18 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Kyle Barraclough ('19) | 5 | 50 | 29.0% | 14.1% | 0.86 | 3.53 |